it's a major award
This is the front-page version of the post that lives in the "useful stuff" tab updated for 2011. Since Hoke announced Michigan would be running a shifted 4-3 I've changed the defensive depth chart to reflect what's likely to happen in spring. Defensive ends have been split into strong and weakside positions and Ryan Van Bergen has been moved back into the DT row on the assumption Michigan's starting DL reads Black-Martin-Van Bergen-Roh next year. Large sections of the secondary are wild-ass guesses we won't get resolution on until Spring.
Right now Michigan has 16 slots for the 2011 class and two players who are obvious candidates to not get fifth years, so with normal attrition they'll be in the mid-twenties again next year.
As far as the end result of The Process: Michigan is two scholarships short pending tomorrow's Willingham commitment, which right now looks like it won't go M's way. In addition, they're carrying Mike Williams—a likely medical redshirt—and at least two more players who could have not gotten fifth years after graduating this spring. Michigan forewent up to five additional recruits thanks to the awkward timing of The Process. They didn't sock themselves with USC scholarship penalties—they socked themselves with half of USC's scholarship penalties.
MICHIGAN FOOTBALL DEPTH BY CLASS 2011
|QB (3 + 0)||
|RB (8 - 1)||J. Hayes
|WR (8 - 3)||R. Miller*
|Slot (5 - 1)||J. Gallon*
|TE (2 - 1)||
|B. Moore*||K. Koger|
|OT (4 - 1)||T. Posada||M. Schofield*
|OG (4 + 0)||C. Bryant||P. Omameh*
|C (4 -1)||C. Pace*
|R. Khoury*||D. Molk*|
|DT (6 - 2)||
|Q.Washington*||W. Campbell||M. Martin
|SDE (3 + 0)||
|J. Black||W. Heininger*#|
|WDE (3 + 0)||
|C. Roh||S. Watson*|
|LB (12 - 2)||J. Ryan*
|K. Demens*||B. Herron*
|CB (9 - 1)||
|JT Floyd*||T. Woolfolk*|
|SS (6 - 1)||J. Furman*||M. Robinson
|FS (2 + 0)||
|P/K (3 + 0)||M. Wile||B. Gibbons*
projected starters in bold, returning starters in italics.
Allotted: 83 (Counting Kovacs and Grady as a scholarship players)
Recruits: Right now Michigan has 16 scholarships. There are two redshirt juniors who may not get fifth years if Michigan finds it needs a little wiggle room: Terrance Robinson and Mike Cox.
Latest Update: 2/2/11 – Updated for 2011.
No doubt this is my ignorance, but I don't understand where Brian's 83 comes from. I count 85 scholarships, including Grady and Kovacs.
There are 15 seniors with scholarships, and three senior walk-ons (all redshirts). If Mike Williams is healthy and gets a sixth-year medical redshirt for last season, he'll have two years of eligibility left, so that's only 14 seniors with scholarships. So again, Brian seems to be two short.
If Brian is right that there are two obvious non-returning fifth-year players next year, that brings the number of current 2012 spots back to 16, or 17 if Williams' playing career is over.
Normal attrition will still easily bring that up to the low 20s, but I don't think there are quite as many loose scholarships right now as Brian thinks -- more like two or three instead of five. Am I right?
Steve Watson is not expected to get a 5th year (although he might since we have a couple to spare)
Mike Williams is likely to take a medical hardship schollie and finish his degree. One too many injuries for his career to continue it sounds like.
If that's the case, then Brian is double counting when he says that, assuming no Willingham, five scholarships were left on the table.
The numbers don't add up for me. It's only the two formerly non-returning fifth-years (Watson and Herron, I guess) and Williams. I don't see how he gets the 83 that he starts with, unless Kovacs and Grady don't count for some reason.
Take Watson and Williams off and count again. You'll get 83 total, and 14 seniors leaving after this fall (I believe). Herron played a lot last fall, if he's healthy he'll certainly be given a 5th year.
Re-read that paragraph. He should get his numbers right if he's going to say, "They didn't sock themselves with USC scholarship penalties—they socked themselves with half of USC's scholarship penalties."
I still only count two left-on-the-table scholarships -- those of Watson and Williams. I don't see where he gets the other three.
I'm not sure what you mean by double-counting - when I count every player on there, except the walk-ons and Watson and Williams who might not get a fifth year, I get 83, so I'm assuming that's how Brian is doing it. I'm not sure what "other three" you're referring to.
Now, the math that I think is wrong is how many seniors we'll have leaving after this fall, assuming Williams and Watson are already gone. Brian says 14, but I only count 13. That's the part I'm a little confused on.
Yeah, I agree your math makes sense, and it jives with the table. I'm not sure where Brian's error is, since his numbers at the bottom don't jive with either. I'm just wondering if he knows something we don't.
Rasmus - I agree with you that the statement about being half-USC is kinda bogus. We could have taken probably 24 max this year, if we don't give 5th years to Watson, Williams or Herron (which is debatable on Herron to begin with), and the reason we didn't get to 24 is not The Process nearly as much as it's due to guys like Cooper, Fisher and Willingham picking someone else on signing day. Now, some time might have helped with those guys, but then again maybe not.
Bitching, moaning, and groaning is one of the great pleasures in life that nobody can take away from you, and pretty much every blogger worth reading (especially those without editors) wallows in it from time to time. That doesn't bother me. What bothers me is whining that is based on bullshit (assuming I'm right about his numbers here).
when he is bitching about Michigan leaving five potential scholarships for incoming recruits on the table. As I said, look at that paragraph again. Even if you allow him Herron, that's still only three that they left on the table. And if we all agree that Herron has earned a fifth year, then it's only two.
Very excited about this young group of linebackers for the future. I would like to see MRob at SS. I know Kovacs was the starter for the last 2 years but I figured by them all learning a new defensive scheme for the first time that Mrob's size and athleticism would maybe push him ahead. Carvin at FS seems like a better fit.
I hope Brian's wrong in his projections of Kovacs and Vinopal at the safety slots. I know they have experience and good heads on their shoulders, but having two slow white guys back there doesn't give me much comfort. I have to imagine some of those athletic underclassmen can step up and let their athleticism boost them up to starting roles.
First of all, what does being a white guy have anything to do with it? Tyler Sash was a first team all-Big Ten safety, and he's white.
Also, Vinopal is not slow, he was an all-state sprinter in Ohio, and that's a feat. He's one of the faster DBs we have, and almost certainly our fastest safety, outside of Furman. If there's a gripe about Vinopal it's maybe his size (although I think he was over 190 as a freshman), but not his speed.
Would two slow black guys be an improvement?
Did Marell Evans end up transferring back to M?
I don't know if hes "on the team," but hes made mention working out with the team in his twitter a couple weeks ago.
Do my eyes deceive me or is that actually DEPTH at LB and DB? If we can redshirt a couple of each the roster starts to look like something resembling deep at every position except OT and TE. Obviously DT is a huge need, but there are at least numbers there if we can get a couple of the guys to work out.
As for the secondary, here are my thoughts:
Would Herron move to WDE for depth at that position and given the excess bodies at LB?
Needs for 2012:
That gets you to 18, pretty close to the number of available scholarships. They probably would take more defensive players to get to the 20-22 number we expect.
To alter your numbers a little - to use the same total you did (18) I'd redistribute like so:
Take 1 TE and 4 OL, and use those two extra spots at LB and DE, taking two of each. I know we just took a lot of LBs, but there are good ones in this class, and we'll take more than one. Same with DEs.
I know we need OL depth, but if we take 4 quality OL (likely two tackles and two guards) that should be sufficient. If we have more than 18 spots to fill (and we likely well) then we can take another OL or a second TE. Othersize, I like your assessment.
to the effect of "How does it affect your recruiting class when you have to hold a scholorship or two past signing day for top-caliber players that may or may not commit to you?" (referring to Clowney).
Spurrier, who already has something like 33 commits this year, replied "It doesn't affect it much, really. You can always hold a scholorship for a top player."
Rofl, I bet it doesn't coach. I bet it doesn't.
I feel like moving Woolfolk back to a safety spot and starting Floyd and Avery at CB would be better.
No offense to Vinopal, but Woolfolk's experience makes him much more valuable and we have lots of depth at CB even though they are young. Our safeties can be upgraded though.
I say put michael williams at the other safety position and keep woolfolk and floyd at CB
Well, I see that Brian is now capitalizing "The Process". I assume he's setting the stage for a schtick that we'll hear about for the entire Spring/Summer.
Nevermind the fact that Greg Mattison wouldn't be our DC if we made an immediate hire.......
"The Process" is the new "RichRod ran off Mallett!!!1!!", only difference being that the shoe is now on the other foot.
experience when it happened in real time. To bring it up over and over...well, like you said, the shoe is on the other foot. Still, THAT was a DONG PUNCH, a shot a program still trying to right itself could ill afford. Even the most ardent admirers of DB's 'Process' and completion need to acknowledge the cost of DB's decision. I'm all for moving on, but I sense this is going to bite us in the arse painfully in the future.
You cannot quantify the cost, or even prove that there was a cost at all. That is all just spin manufactured by people that like to complain about everything because that is what they do. Nobody KNOWS what would have happened had RichRod stayed. After three years of poor to mediocre records, and getting repeatedly blown out by good teams, some of those recruits might have bolted anyway. We just don't know.
Sure, we can talk in circles all we want. We can point fingers all we want. But at some point you have to come back to reality and deal with what is really happening rather than fantasizing. This kind of stuff can influence people and start an undercurrent that is not healthy for the program.
All the complaining about "The Process" only serves to create the same kind of tension among the fans and alumi that doomed RichRod. People need to get over it and move on.
...wouldn't you agree we would have had a better shot at Harbaugh on Dec 2, rather than Jan 2 when he became the NFL? I'm not a fan of Harbaugh as a person (e.g., throwing Michigan under the bus academically as soon as he gets the Stanford job, DUI, etc) and am not crushed we didn't get him, but he is a heck of a coach.
Also, while I think Mattison was a very good hire, esp. so late in the hiring season, I don't think we should act like he's the only one who would have been a (hopefully) successful option. From young guys (like Manny Diaz, formerly of Miss State, now at Texas) to old guys (like Vic Fangio, formerly of Stanford, now at the 49ers), there is more than one person who can be a good DC.
I don't bring up Diaz and Fangio to say Hoke could have hired them; I'm just pointing them out as just two examples of coach's w/o a natl profile, were under the radar, and they had very good seasons in their first year.
I think we're all so damaged by Gerg and the shift to 99% certain competence under Mattison that we forget there is more than a handful of good DCs in the nation, whether up & coming or those who have been kicking around awhile.
Harbaugh was never ever coming here period. Always going to NFL or staying in Stanford .Are we going to keep hearing this like we hear how Rich rod ran off Mallet crap
IE "Rich Rod ran off Mallett!!!!!1!!!!!!"
I think Broekhuizen should get a mention on this list, and would it be at all worth while to put Long Snapper as a category so we know who they are at least? Or in case Hoke likes to give them scholarships like Carr did at the end of his career?
No, you're not. I'm beginning to worry that Brian is fudging the numbers to fit the story. I don't see how in the world he got five empty scholarships with what we have.
As we were always looking at 21 scholarships.
I think the valid argument is to compare what we ended up with to what we might have ended up with with RR, or what we could have ended up with had Hoke not pulled this rabbit out of a hat.
I think with RR we would have had a somewhat higher ranked class (like 15th or so). But I've also grown skeptical over the past 3 years based on who actually ends up on the field. Several promising recruits have left (Emelien), failed to qualify for enrollment (Dorsey) or not panned out yet (Campbell). Others have been promising but seen limited play because of the starters ahead of them (Khoury). Plenty of others have been as promised, or better. But I think this just highlights how little recruiting class ranking really means. It's just a guess, like draft class in the NFL.
Right now it seems silly to gripe about this recruiting class. We'll have an inkling about it in September, a little more than an inkling by December, and a decent idea by the 2012 season. Until then we just don't really know.
You all are right the numbers don't add up. Michigan had two scholarships left to give, those of Watson (unlikely to come back for 5th year) and Williams (likely medical hardship, playing career over), not five.
Go above 22 in this class and you're looking at denying a 5th year for Herron (after waiting until the Spring for attrition to open up a spot, thereby allowing you to keep Herron on). I think they were probably willing to potentially send Herron packing for Cooper, Willingham, and Fisher, but beyond those guys, not so much.
Anyhow, assuming they don't do anything with them in the next few weeks, I guess maybe a couple of walk-ons are going to get one-year scholarships, which is great for morale.
I was wondering why clicking the comments link at the top of posts never moves the page down to the comments, so I peeped the source, and the id for the div in question is #forum-comments as opposed to plain 'ol #comments. Hope that helps.
God it is amazing to see but a single bold name in the Freshman column. I'm sure it's already been said, but whatever, fuck you guys, I've been shoveling snow all day.
According to the player bios on MGoBlue, Ricardo Miller "made his collegiate debut on special teams vs. Massachusetts (Sept. 18)". So that redshirt appears to have been burned.
Miller is in basically the same situation as Devin Gardner: he played in 2 games (UMass and BGSU) and was injured. He is eligible to apply for a medical redshirt because he did not play in 4 games and he did not play after the 6th game.
A third player who is eligible for a medical redshirt (as is noted on the chart) is linebacker Mike Jones, who played against Connecticut and Notre Dame before missing the rest of the season due to injury.
He was a 4 star all army recruit, has had tough luck with injuries but i think he is a great talent. He should get the nod at Free or Strong Safety instead of Vinopal, he was ranked 5th at his position hope the coaches give the guy a shot. GO BLUE, happy hoke was able to salvage this class.
Williams career is likely over due to injury and he'll be finishing out his degree on a medical schollie.
Are you basing this assessment strictly on his recruiting rankings, or have you seen him play (when healthy) at Michigan?
You obviously did not watch any of the games in 2009....especially at Illinois. #40 was horrible.
Finally a little depth!!
I think some of the DL guys we brought in are penciled in to the wrong positions. Chris Rock will be a DT, not only because we didn't bring in a DT but also because of his size and frame. He has a build very similar to RVB. He's been listed at 250 he committed in May, so it's very likely he's 260+ by the time he gets here in the fall, plus he'll almost certainly redshirt.
Also, I bet Keith Heitzman ends up a SDE. He's got the athleticism to be a WDE, but he's got a big frame, and I bet he's a kid who ends up 260 or 270 after a redshirt year, similar to Kenny Wilkins.
Just looking at the 2-deep and based on what I personally think you'd like to have (as well as looking at some of Hoke's tendencies), I'd say this is the need for next year's class...
(total scholarships used on position for 2012 season in parentheses)
QB-1 (Gardner/Bellamy/Frosh after Denard graduates) (4)
RB-1 or 2 (replacing Shaw (and possibly Cox) as far as numbers go) (8)
FB-1 (replacing McColgan with a possible transition away from the Slot and to a FB) (1)
Big WR-1 (after Hemingway leaves we'll have Jeremy Jackson and Ricardo Miller as big targets, Borges and Hoke like their pro-style targets) (3)
Small WR-0 (3)
Slot WR-0 See above. I gotta believe the Slot position will disappear after Roy and Tae depart) (3)
TE-2 (With Koger gone and only Moore/Barnett on the roster, we'll need depth) (4)
OT-3 (Lewan, Schofield, Posada would be our only 3 OTs on scholarship) (6)
OG-2 (like to have 3 deep on each line position and we'll have 4 OGs next year) (6)
C-0 (Rocko, Pace, Miller) (3)
SDE-1 (building depth) (4)
NT-1 (see SDE) (4)
DT-2 (unless we move to a defense with 2 space eaters at the tackles, we'll need a more mobile guy outside of Talbott) (3)
WDE-0 (we've got enough of these guys-Roh, Heitzman, Beyer, Paskorz) (4)
OLB-0 (not seeing the need here with predicted Furman switch) (7)
MLB-1 (Demens and Morgan, not sure Bell will be a contributor) (4)
CB-0 (8 CBs on scholarship by my count in 2012 regardless of if Woolfolk plays CB or S) (8)
SS-0 (a lot of guys fit here especially after going away from the 3-3-5) (4)
FS-1 (this is the position I'd love to not have to play Vinopal/Carter at in the future) (3)
K/P-0 (good here for the time being) (3)
That gives us 85 without standard attrition. Obviously any attrition will probably increase the need at the position we lost a guy at.
can Mateus and Gunderson contribute? Gunderson played Brink well in last year's spring game - but that doesn't make me feel any better.
I would hate to see Bryant and Posada lose a RS to our needs up front - but it's unlikely we will go a full season with no injuries there. It's rare that a freshman can step up and play on the line. Rare for good reason. Both Chris and Tony are big - but big doesn't mean ready for B1G. Life is not fair.
Mealer, Schofield, Khoury and Pace...sounds like a law firm... here's to a healthy off season. There are barely enough bigs to do a full 1vs2 practice. Back to a modified spring game.
At least the kickoff coverage will be solid come the fall.
We may not have seen the last of Washington or Campbell on OL - but the DL is short bodies as well in a 4-3 scheme. A lot is contingent on how Talbott and Ash progress and overall health.
I'm assuming Miller gets a RS due to the depth at center.
We won't burn those redshirt unless we have a lot of injuries. Some of the guys like Khoury and Barnum can move around a bit if necessary. We have three tackles, if one goes down, Schofield replaces him. If another tackle goes down, Barnum moves to tackle and either Khoury or Mealer goes in for Barnum. If we have multiple people injured, then it gets tricky.
But you bring up an interesting point with Gunderson and Mattias. Gunderson was a true freshman in the spring game last year and Mattias wasn't even on campus yet. Those guys are 2 and 1 years, respectively, older than Bryant and Posada, so they might get thrown out there before we burn a redshirt on one of those guys.
Gunderson and Mattias aren't exactly scrubs either. They are both like 6'7" ro 6'8" and between 305 and 310 - this is per the roster from last fall. An extra year in S&C and one of those guys might be a valuable back-up. Most likely Gunderson as he's a year older and the slightly more accomplished high school player.
year. Lewan blossomed with a RS. Posada and Bryant aren't ready - but either one could have special upper class years compromised by our recruiting wiffs and DB's offensive schematic indecision. It's rare to get a Hutchinson type kid out of HS.
I think it's Mateus (sp?) ... MGoBlue took the roster down.
The need for Gunderson, Mateus or Ciullo (who could still play a year right?) would only be stop gap - but could save a very productive Senior campaign for Bryant or Posada.
Tim should add a roster with weight deltas season to season on the useful links.
Ive been stuck at work for 2 days thanks to 30 inches of snow. I thought we were leading for willingham, what happened?