Texas, Duke it is
I did not make this headline up
Michigan lost the Big Ten title game but did get to Indianapolis as a two-seed in the Midwest region. Their first round opponent is Wofford. The local bracket:
10. Arizona State
Should Michigan reach the Sweet 16, Duke is the 3 with UMass the 6, facing down the worst possible Kenpom 11 in the Iowa/Tennessee winner. Potential elite eight matchups include Wichita State, Louisville, and Kentucky.
So… positive early, ramping up late.
Texas, Duke it is
Had we got the 1, probably draw Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen with MSU/Louisville flipped. So that would have sucked. Duke I think we can beat. I want no part of Louisville though.
Of the first weekend, in my opinion was getting the draw on Thursday/Saturday. Teams playing in conf. champ. games on Sunday should be placed in a Friday/Sunday game. I'm sure they will rest the guys tomorrow, then travel Tuesday and one day of practice Wednesday.
That's the Big Ten's and CBS's problem, not the rest of the NCAA's.
Overall looking like a not-so-bad draw. Duke is over-rated, Witchita St. with a soft schedule and Louisville with a pressing style D. not the worst path to a final 4
I think this is one of the worst draws we could have gotten. While Duke may be overrated in terms of national opinion, I think they are one of the worst matchups we can have. Parker proves a huge matchup problem (duh), but with shooters like Hood, Suliamon, and Dawkins, Duke is able to keep pace with our offense.
Louisville is built very much like Duke with Harrell being the impact forward-type and lightning guard play led by Russ Smith. They also seem to be peaking right now. I was very surprised after their conference tourney showing they were dealt a 4 seed.
While I'm happy we got Wichita St as our 1, I think everyone agrees the seeding committee gave them the toughest region. And I'd rather have drawn teams like Virginia, Kansas (without Embiid), or San Diego State than our current path.
Duke is an open offense, not so much a tight D. D is what we struggle against. Duke is a very winnable game, especially based on our improvement over the season. The its either Wichita, which, the same but maybe they're soft due to conference or Louisville who is the real team to fear. Tough region, but partly because we are in it. Bottom line is they are all tough, but we have very winnable matchups.
I don't disagree with you thinking all our potential matchups are winnable, but I do disagree with you saying our worst matchup facing a good defensive team. I think our worst matchup is a offensive team that can keep pace with us. As this blog has pointed out the past month, our offense is so effective that even against good team we're still able to put up 60+ points. Meanwhile our defense is bad enough to allow offensively challenged teams like Ohio to score 69.
I'd rather face a team like Ohio/UVA who isn't good enough offensively to get up 10-20 points on us, because 90% of the time we will make the adjustments and hit enough shots to make a run. I'm terrified of teams like Creighton/Duke who, against our defense, can put up 50+ in a half and we need to hit nearly every shot to keep pace.
This is the correct analysis. You have to assume that to have any chance at all, our offense has to click. I kind of wish we were built to lock teams down on defense (the loss of McGary patrolling the paint is particularly acute here), but we're not. So then, would you rather play an offensive juggernaut like Duke or a defensive juggernaut like OSU? The only logical conclusion is the latter.
I will also argue by anecdote that the path to the final four last year led through three defense-first teams (VCU, KU, and UF) and we got tripped up by the crazy shooting of Luke Hancock et al. in the final.
But I actually think Duke is underrated this year. They are probably the best offense in the country (though we are right there with him) and have arguably the best player in the country.
Duke is just a slightly more solid version of Michigan, even though I hate to say it. Like us, they have a great one-two scoring punch. But Parker-Hood is a little more solid than Stauskas-LeVert. Like us, they have a bevy of shooters. Like us, their defense is inconsistent and they can be had on the boards.
But both of those are just a little less shaky than Michigan. I do think it will be a great game, but I feel like down the stretch Jabari will be too much and Duke will make one more stop. Something like a 3-point win.
kinda sounds like the situation for every team in the tournament? I don't know that there are too many easy games once you reach the sweet sixteen. Besides, upsets happen all the time, so we don't even know if Duke or Louisville will even be there IF we get there.
Let us not forget that Dook is no stranger to bowing out of the tourny early to an upset as a high seed.
Yeah, you know who else hates our Region? Duke.
And you know who else? Louisville.
And you know who else? Wichita State.
And you know who else? Kentucky.
None of us wants to play any of the rest of us. You can be damn sure that none of these teams wants to play Michigan. Yet here we all are.
I have no idea what to expect. My head might explode trying to make my bracket this year.
Last year we were just a hair better than this team and we beat #1 KU, #3 Florida, #4 Syracuse (and their defense allowing 0.0 ppg), and took #1 Louisville to the wire
The 96 and 98 Michigan hockey teams went through BC, Colorado College, and North Dakota teams everyone said were unbeatable.
You aren't going to win it all without going through tough teams. Just win one game and move on. Survive and advance
IIRC, we were kind of overwhelming favorites in '96, so that's a bit of a misnomer. '98 not so much.
which was why I just tried to point to the other teams.
The thing is, when the brackets are set all of a sudden everyone is unbeatable and a complete juggernaut. Last I checked, no one is undefeated (except a mid-major school). Every team is beatable. We beat #2 seed Wisconsin in their barn. We beat #4 MSU twice. MSU was #3 at the time our first game which would've made them a proverbial 1-seed.
Everyone is beatable and not nearly the invincible tirant the anaylsts make everyone sound like. Play good basketball and advance
MSU won a title playing 1 just a single top 20 team.
Michigan did falter down the stretch, but they were still ranked in top 5 for most of the year and were a bad roll off the rim from winning the most stacked conference I've ever seen (IU, OSU, MSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin were all Final Four-caliber teams). And then we added McGary to all that.
This year's team does have more offensive balance, but rebounding and defense went from passable to a serious problem.
I like this team and we've got the firepower to make a run, but last year's team was substantially better.
People look at records and think it's closer than it really is. Last year's team was certainly better.
We just have to hope and pray that we get hot and shoot well because our defense, rebounding, and toughness "is what it is."
I can't let questioning this teams toughness slide. This is a group that is one year removed from being role players that saw three of the best players in college basketball evaporate from their starting lineup. Their defense and rebounding makes me scratch my head sometimes, but I'm beyond proud to have these "tough" and resiliant young men representing this university.
This. They may lack some skills and some polish, but they have perservered in a lot of close games and pulled them out with superior toughness.
Easily the toughest region IMO.
Texas scares me. I haven't looked at stats, but I believe they can rebound very well from what I've seen from them. They will/would have a size advantage on us.
Beilein vs. Barnes is a huge mismatch.
Am I offbase for being surprised that Barnes is still there?
his seat has been verying degrees of warm/hot the last few years. If they didn't have the year they had this year, I'm guessing he might have been gone.
Two coaches that perpetually underachieve. I think they are twins. How Dixon got an extension I'll never understand.
They have great size, but shoot terribly.
Kind of like Michigan State today? They were like 1/17 from 3, but it didn't matter bc they basically rebounded all of them.
We shot horribly ourselves, were playing our 3rd game in 3 days and played Bielfeldt 13 minutes. Don't draw too many conclusions from today.
Everyone just says "we shot horribly." Well, we had very few clean looks due to their defense, so it's not like we were bricking open shots. If MSU played like that the next 10 games against us we'd shoot like sh*t as well.
We need better ball movement. We also need to be more physical. We a defender is grabbing Stauskas's nuts, he needs to do something about it. Gary Harris is a nut grabber.
Play 3 games in 3 days too? Maybe played a role in their 3 point shooting, but made up for it elsewhere.
*realizes everyone has moved on from this thread*
*walks slowly away with hands in pockets, kicking pebble in road*
I know nothing about Texas or ASU
Let someone else hammer on Louisville. They really could have been a #2 or even a #1.
It kills me that everyone is falling for the Pitino promotion... The same things they critcize Wichita State for (no good wins, bad SOS, etc.) they are conveniently ignoring for Louisville. Sure, they are winning now but they beat like 2 teams that made the tournament all season.
But that's why they r a 4 seed. The selection committee did not fall for the hype
because the computer rankings pretty much have Louisville at top 5. KenPom have them at #2 overall and are the only two teams (along with Witcha State) to have top 10 offense and defense in efficiency.
It does not matter who you play (to some extent) but it matters how you win games. There is a reason why Louisville is a terrifying 4 seed.
things they penalized Louisville for, poor SOS, not a lot of top 50 wins, etc... are _better_ for Louisville than many of the teams they seeded higher than Louisville. Creighton, Villanova, Wichita State all have worse resumes if you use the criteria that kept Louisville as a 4.
If the RPI didn't exist anymore, which it shouldn't, there is no one in the world with any sense that would think Louisville deserved a 4 seed. They are top 5 in every advanced statistical measure there is. Michigan is better off being the 2 in that regional than the 1 with Louisville stuck at that 4 spot.
Easier path to the sweet sixteen. But does anyone really think that it's less intense playing Michigan State in the sweet 16? The truth is that we match up well with both Louisville and Witchita state. We have to beat Duke. That's the most difficult matchup. And would any Michugan fan not love to beat Duke on the way to the final four? I say bring it!
We matchup well with Louisville? Curious, because I would like someone to talk me off the ledge.
Louisville has a super-quick guard in Russ Smith (kind of player who has caused problems for Michigan) and plays an aggressive defense. The last two games Michigan has wilted when faced with that kind of pressue defense, turning the ball over and at times stagnating offensively.
Let's put Louisville's hot streak aside for the moment. This is a team that does really well when they can turn the other team over. Michigan does not turn over easily, most of the time it's due to their own sloppiness not related to the opposing team. Louisville is going to give a lot of open looks on the outside which is why I like our chances. Sure the guard situation makes drives to the lane much easier for Louisville, but if were firing at a 1.21 PPP I think we come away with the win. Duke is the much harder matchup particularly without Mitch McGarry. Hopefully Stauskas can find room and we have a big game from Levert and GR3.
What works in our favor is that if we make the Sweet Sixteen, we have a week to prepare for Duke if they get there.
We will not look like the same team they beat at Cameron in December. "If you give John Beilein a week to prepare . . . "
I love Coach B as much as anyone else...but Coach K will also get a week to prepare. I would consider prep time a wash here. We are going to play much better than we did last time we played them, which I think we can. Although, last time we played them we still had Mitch McGary who had 15 pts and 14 rebounds. Going to miss him this time around. The one thing we will have going for us is the neutral court as opposed to being on the dookies home court.
I like it. Texas hasn't been mentioned as a serius contender out of the B12 and Wofford doesn't seem like an upset in the making. Louisville is opposite the 1, so we can't face both.
the truth is, this is a deep field with a thin top. lots of good 4 seeds and 3s also. If we get to the sweet 16, we have to beat someone good. had we gotten the one, we would have UVa's spot: plaing a Carolina team in Carolina and seeing a strong, strong 4 in the next weekend (louisville, as the committee'd avoid the MSU-M Sweet 16 match up). Would you want Duke or Louisville in the S16?
Now, that 8/9 winner is a better 2nd round matchup than we have, but that's what being a #1 is.
1) why does ESPN talk about the BPI? no one else does.
2) when are gametimes announced?
ESPN talks about BPI because it's their proprietary system. It'd be like the Kenpom network talking about Kenpom ratings all the time. Only it sucks, because it's ESPN.
The BPI is ESPN's proprietary, secret rating system. It's analogous to their QBR rating. Since they own it, nobody else can use it. It's better than RPI, probably not quite as predictive as kenpom.
Wichita, Duke, Louisville and throw in dangerous teams like Kentucky and St Louis to boot. Like Sparty's draw a lot better.