Michigan Museday: Expansion Universalis

According to like everybody, college presidents and conference executives are at it again, carving up the BCS landscape before they themselves get carved like a particularly bloody game of Europa Universalis. [ed: this has to be the only sports blog in the universe with not one but two references to EU.] So long as the Big Ten doesn't end up in the NHL's slot among four pro leagues, I don't care that much.

Playing Devil's advocate, I think I understand why people do care. The going meme is we're headed for 16-team conferences because they get bigger TV deals, and if you don't get your Mizzous now while the gettin' is good, the Big Ten will eventually find itself holding a press conference to extoll the virtues of Iowa State wrestling. I don't see Iowa State's value as an umpteenth member being worth an umpteenth share of BTN. That's hardly stopping ADs and conferences from playing war games.

Even if the ACC, PacX and SEC expand to 16 teams, they only match the star power at the top of the Big Ten. Michigan-Ohio State-Nebraska-Penn State and friends (in football) is still a bigger deal than FSU-Miami-Notre Dame and friends, still a bigger deal than Texas-USC-Oklahoma and friends, and holds up against Bama and the Holy Southern Empire except for that one century when Bama's friends are all like AUSTRRIIAAAAAAA!!!!!

Most recently it's the ACC invading Syracuse and Pitt to shore up defenses in case of an SEC attack, while SEC armies jump around out east trying to balance Texas A&M. West Virginia's doing the thing where the girl tells her friend to tell UConn to tell Dooley that the SEC kinda sorta maybe already asked her out. Missouri's all like hey, I invented that gambit!

That's not 16-team leagues, the mega-conference endpoint doomsday scenario. It's closer to it than we were when the ACC broke the pax conferenca to grab VT, Miami, and BC.

What was way more more nerve-wracking was the Pac 12 looking for a casus belli to annex Texas and Oklahoma (plus respective vassals Okie State and Texas Tech). But late last night the Pac 12 looked at a world where they've annexed Texas, and decided to remain 12—crisis averted.

Today there are zero 16-team conferences. The SEC and ACC may get to 14 soon, unless the latter is grabbing territories to make up for one it expects to lose. Remnants of the Big East and Big XII may meet to form something out of their remaining members that's not quite a BCS conference, but that will only happen if Texas and Oklahoma leave, and would end up around 10 or 11.

I disagree with those who say it's going to ruin college football; college football is awesome and will continue being such until they don't put wings on helmets anymore. But it can make college football suck significantly more by redefining conferences as massive corporations with stock options. Eight to 10 teams is a group of similar schools that expand their students' networks, share research, and organize sporting events. By Twelve it's more of a leauge than a conference. At fourteen it becomes stupid -- you are now in a "conference" with teams you don't play most years.

I don't even know how to balance a schedule with 6 division opponents, 7 cross-divisional opponents, and 9 conference games. Teams will undoubtedly have six-year intervals without playing each other at all. If they started in 2012, Pitt could see FSU at home six times between now and 2043. This is about how often Michigan plays UCLA.

Now would be a great time for the NCAA to grow a pair and replace its current president with a Caesar-like lifetime commissioner, for other reasons too (get compliance in order), but because that's the only way the not-quite-finished realignment cycle will be finished with other goals than a pressing TV deal in mind.

If you choose to click through past the jump, I've put together a pair of concepts for a workable NCAA league just in case this stuff all blows up like they're saying. Only go if you're into that sort of thing.

META Note: This space was meant to be a study on Mattison's rush tendencies versus GERG last year and their effectiveness. However the EMU game offered next to no data on the pass rush and present info from 3/4 of a Western game and a balls-out ND game are nowhere near enough to talk yet.

Concept One: Four-Conference League

Concept One cuts out the mid-majors (and five former BCS teams) entirely, forming four major conferences that compete for their own N.C. From one perspective this is a horrible thing to do to college kids competing for a national championship. From another, it's long overdue since 120 teams with vast differences in institutional firepower and schedule difficulty competing for one trophy using 12 insular games is no way to run a league. To say it shouldn't be a league but a bunch of regional conferences providing amateur programs for the purpose of educating people I agree; it's not that or ever going to be that again.

Likewise, if the other conferences get huge, there is no reason that the Big Ten need add four more teams (it works as well with 56 teams as 60) but I'm going to pretend they do just to show how this works.

Basics: Four mega-conferences of 16 teams, each broken up into 8-team leagues and 4-team divisions within that.

Season Structure (11 games):

• Two nonconference games scheduled at discretion of the teams.
• Three conference games versus divisional opponents.
• One conference game versus dedicated rival within league (opposite division)*
• One conference game versus rotating team within league (opposite division)*
• Four conference games against teams in a division from opposite league

* These are optional. Conferences could play 7-game conference seasons and rotate between the other three divisions every year, or 8-game conferences with everyone getting a dedicated rival.

Postseason Structure:

• Conference Playoffs, Round 1: The best division winner plays the worst division winner they haven't played. Other two division winners play each other.
• Conference Playoffs, Round 2: Round 1 winners play each other to determine conference champ
• Playoff, Round 1: Best conference winner plays worst conference winner. Other two play each other.
• National Championship: Round 1 winners play each other to determine National Champ.
• Bowl Games for non-playoff teams and those eliminated in the Conf. Playoffs.

Alignment:

I am not at all married to this. It's just for show:

ACC:

Type One Rotation: Nine conference games, three division rivals plus rotate schedule every two years between other six conference foes. Example: ND spends 2 years playing BC, Pitt & Cuse, plus Clemson, FSU, and the Carolina Division. Then they rotate to BC, Pitt & Cuse, plus GT, Miami, and the Atlantic division for 2 years:

Green=every year; Yellow=2012-'13, 2016-'17, 2020-'21, etc.; Blue=2014-'15, 2018-'19, 2022-'23, etc.

BIG TEN:

Type Two Rotation: Three dedicated rivals, each from a different division. Play your division, plus rotating division in other league, plus the other two dedicated rivals every year. Michigan plays MSU, Indiana, Purdue, OSU, NW, and Minnesota every year, and rotates every other year between PSU/Rutgers/Illinois, Mizzou/Kansas/Neb, or Iowa St/Iowa/Wisconsin.

Green=every year; Blue=2012-'13, Yellow=2014-'15, Red=2016-'17, then back to blue, etc.

PAC16:

Type Three Rotation: Three divisional opponents plus four league opponents, plus one team from each of the divisions in the other league. Example: Cal plays all of its old Pac 8 opponents every year. For two years they also play Texas and Zona. Then they play Boise St and Ariz St for two years. Then Colorado and Okla for two years, etc. Note that this way Texas plays Oklahoma every year (and travels to Boise St every other, like that would ever happen) but only sees USC 1/4 years.

Green=every year; Blue=2012-'13; Yellow=2014-'15; Red=2016-'17; Taupe=2018-'19, repeat.

SEC:

Type Four Rotation (10 conf games). Each team has two dedicated rivals from the opposite division. Every other year you switch off playing one or the other division in the opposite league and one or the other non-rival from the other division in your league. Example: Tennessee plays Auburn, Vandy, Bama, Georgia and Florida every year. Every two years they switch between WVa. and the Delta division, or S.C. and the West division.

Green=every year; Blue=2012-'13; Yellow=2014-'15, repeat

Concept Two: Tier System

Basics: Five conferences of 24 teams. Within each conference are two tiers. The top tier plays for a national championship, the bottom tier plays to get into the top tier next year.

Season Structure:

• One exhibition game scheduled at discretion of the teams. May be used to play an FCS opponent. This game may not be counted in rankings or stats. Teams may also skip the exhibition game and have a bye week if they choose.
• One nonconference game scheduled at discretion of the teams.
• One game versus opponent from other tier. Teams schedule these themselves so like Iowa and Iowa St can choose to play each other every year; M/MSU can trade off playing Western/Central every other year. Game is always played at UPPER tier's stadium. Last year's Lower Tier conference champion may choose their Upper Tier opponent.
• Nine conference games versus tier opponents. Conferences are responsible for fairly managing their schedules

Postseason Structure:

• Conference Showcase: The participants in the Conf. Showcase will vary based on the progression of the season. The point is to generate a clear conference champion. If a clear conference champion of the Upper Tier is already available, that team will play the best (by BCS rating) team in its conference's lower tier. If there's a 3- or 4-way tie atop a conference's top tier, the conference may use its own process to choose two teams to play in its Conf. Championship.
• Six-Team Playoff Tier One: Five conference champions plus one At-Large. Best two BCS teams get a bye week. See Brian's playoff concept.
• Six-Team Playoff Tier Two: Five conference champions plus one At-Large. Best two teams get a bye week.
• Bowl Games for non-playoff teams.

Competitive Tiers:

The Lower Tier Champion will receive an autobid to replace the worst Tier 1 team in its conference for the following season. Conferences may also choose to bid-up a Lower Tier team to replace one of its Upper Tier teams. When a team from the Lower Tier is raised, the conferences decide for themselves which team will be lowered into the Lower Tier.

Alignment:

GREAT LAKES CONFERENCE
Managed by: Big Ten

ATLANTIC EAST CONFERENCE:
Managed by: ACC

Changes: Massachusetts raised to FBS, Eastern Michigan lowered to FCS. Other FCS schools currently transitioning will have to apply to a Conference and replace a team already there.

CENTRAL CONFERENCE:
Managed by: Big XII Conference

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE:
Managed by: SEC

PAC 12 CONFERENCE:
Managed by: Pac12

Mid-major teams joining Top Tier: Boise State, TCU

BCS teams in Lower Tier: Iowa State, UConn, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest

Weird things: Penn State, Colorado, Georgia, and South Florida are all in conferences apart from other schools in their states. This was to preserve existing conference rivalries for those schools while keeping the conferences evenly sized and generally competitively balanced. I'm not married to these alignments.

Srsly pissed off u guys people: Everyone who realigned over the last few years. Wake Forest, which used to be competitive in the ACC and is suddenly a mid-major for like no reason WTF is that all about? Big East teams who thought the Big East made them BCS teams.

Srsly happy people: Boise State. The Big XII teams that would have been left homeless (Mizzou, Kansas, K-state, Baylor) – they get everything back mostly the way it was except they traded TCU for Iowa State.

Sample Michigan Schedule:

Week 1: Eastern Michigan (exhibition)
Week 2: Notre Dame (conf1)
Week 3: Western Michigan (Tier2conf)
Week 4: SDSU (non-conference)
Week 5: Minnesota (conf2)
Week 6: @Northwestern (conf3)
Week 7: @Michigan State (conf4)
Week 8: Purdue (conf5)
Week 9: @Iowa (conf6)
Week 10: @Illinois (conf7)
Week 11: Indiana (conf 8)
Week 12: Ohio State (conf 9)
Great Lakes Showcase (Indianapolis): Michigan (10-1) vs. Penn State (10-1)
Playoff Week 1: Nebraska (at Large)
Playoff Week 2: @Oklahoma (Central Champ)
National Championship: Michigan vs. Alabama in Rose Bowl

Something like this will never happen: The way college football really works is more like the lunchroom of a middle school than a competitive athletic league.