spoiler alert: i linked this
Oh really and why is that?
Let us never refer to any football game as a "Gimmie" for the rest of all of our lives.
so you don't think USC vs Alabama St. is a gimme?
I meant games involving Michigan. Because of the Horror, which most referred to as a gimme or some other phrase that meant gimme.
you are delusional.
Every game is "winnable"... even the games that aren't "won." Toledo last year was a "gimme" right?
This is inane.
I'm not even going to get into this... wow.
It's a new season but why not!!!
I think you should lower your expectations.
... but the same could be said for half the teams in D1. If anything less than 9-3 is a failure, does that mean RR should be fired if we go 7-5?
Sad panda foreshadowing, Don. :(
"There are plenty of qbs that play their freshmen year and do just fine."
Not many at all, actually.
i think 7-5 or even 8-4 is much more realistic. let us not forget one of those "gimme" teams of App. st. when we had a veteran Qb at the position. i do think first and foremost we need to do a much better job of holding on to the ball. just see Mich's turnover vs ND that put us in a huge hole early.
don't get me wrong, i LOVE the optimism. for instance, when filling out my bracket I had us getting to the final 4 cause i just didn't want to see a loss for us (and i also convinced myself that we legitimately could beat clem, okie, cuse, and maybe unc).
but anyways, I also remember seeing the same exact predictions before last season at this time with people saying that 11-2 or even 12-1 weren't that far off. now granted, there were like 7 games we had last season that we lost where we were winning at some point but then self-destructed.
but all i'm saying is don't get ahead of yourself. this year should definitely be better than last but we're not a BCS team yet.
I love the fact that Wisconsin on the road is a win, but @ Iowa is only winnable. There are ZERO gimmes.
Iowa was 9-4 last year and won their bowl game and beat Penn State end of year. Wisky got destroyed (exposed) against FSU (and us) and lost more talent than Iowa if memory serves correctly.
Ferentz is also looking like a much better coach than Bielema in my opinion as well.
Iowa had 3 all big-ten players: Shonn Greene, Mitch King, and Kroul. They all are gone.
They also had the 12th best defense nationally and lose 3 from that. Besides Stanzi is a 3rd year starter. Wisconsin will be nowhere near them.
Unfortunately, we are one of the reasons why.
The gap between should win and did win has been kicking our ass lately.
it often devolves into "fire RR" or "we are Michigan and can't lose that game." after we in fact lose one of your "gimmes". And dude, to say that the OSU game is a "toss-up" is just crazy.
Is a rivalry game and is always a toss-up at the very least. We need to get back to that mentality.
But then in year two of my dynasty I changed the difficulty from All-American to Heisman. Justin Feagin threw so many interceptions, it was ridiculous.
4 should win
1-2 probable loss
5-6 could go either way.
I'll start with Bowl eligibility and go from there.
Wow, I've finally met someone with maize/blue colored glasses thicker than mine...
12-0? Are you serious?! I know our schedule is pretty pathetic, but 12-0?! None of those games are automatically "WINS". All of them are winnable, every college football game is winnable for either team. But 12-0?! Almost impossible. If we go 7-5 to 8-4 I'll be satisfied. If we go 9-3 I'll be impressed. If we go 10-2 or better, Rich Rod is God.
This opinion is based more on what the OTHER TEAMS have than what WE have.
You're right. Not many of these teams are scary good.
At the same time, we have a bunch of freshmen and sophomores at key positions and our defense was pretty damn bad last year.
So no. There's no chance in hell that we'll go 12-0.
Just be happy if we become bowl eligible this upcoming season. That, in and of itself, would be an accomplishment.
I guess I'm not the world's most optimistic UM fan anymore.
I still think they will go 9-3 with losses to Iowa, PSU, and Wisky, and a victory over vile, evil OSU.
Other things that could happen this year:
- The Lions could actually make good use of both of their first round draft picks.
- Detroit's economy could be rejuvenated to the point where they're razing entire neighborhoods in Brightmoor and Delray and building mansions in their place.
- The entirety of US agricultural could decide to collectively stop using pesticides and so forth and strictly adhere to a policy of organic gardening.
- The United States could decide to go to war with Zimbabwe.
- Electrical engineers the world over could collectively decide to revert to exclusively using power tubes instead of solid state technology in everything they design because they think cost efficiency and reliability are overrated concepts.
but audio sounds so much warmer from tubes
Okay, I'm a guitarist. What's your excuse?
I can tell your list is bullshit because the first point will never happen. The rest are all at least somewhat possible.
seeing as how we havent gone undeafeated since 97 that might be a bit of stretch...however, something more along the lines of 9-3 might be more realistic than a 6-6. the perfect storm of rr's second year record, 8 home games (which goes a loong way to helping a young team), a down year in the big10, an improved line, and maybe a team out for blood. i think they might have a vendetta out against some kids (ala the 06-07 season)
"If we would not of had 5 turnovers last year we would of beaten them"
You must be RReraBegins2009. He was the only poster who shared your logic-be-damned optimism and your inability to use "have" instead of "of."
+1 to you sir. I was just thinking have that.
You could of given me +2, but I'll take it.
Yeesh. All the guy said was "COULD."
there's about 119 other teams that COULD go undefeated too. last year only 1 actually did. we will not be that 1 this year. i think we'll be a surprise team but we won't become the greatest turnaround team ever
And the Cubs could have won the WS at least once in the last 100 years. Definition of delusional optimism: Cubs fan who believes this is the year.
I think it's more realistic we go 0-12 than 12-0. I'm praying we are at least 6-6, but I'm not entirely convinced we'll make that mark yet.
Also, here is some FUN WITH MATH!
Going with the OP's extremely generous predictions, lets say:
GIMME = 95% Chance to win
WIN = 80% Chance to win
WINNABLE = 60% Chance to win
TOSS-UP = 50% Chance to win
Then, the odds we go 12-0 are (0.6)^4 * (0.95)^3 * (0.8)^4 * (0.5) = 2.3%
So given very optimistic, generous predictions for each game, we have a 2.3% chance of going 12-0.
and another +1.
You forgot to figure in M against Florida (gimme) for the National Championship.
True dat...we own Florida LOL
Trust me. Due to past experience, I can tell you that it will hurt WAAAY less if you just accept the fact that we're not gonna be all that awesome for a few years. After last year when my pie in the sky ideas of 7-5, & possibly, maybe, if RR actually WAS a deity, 8-4 were dashed, I can give this team no more than 6-6. And that's only because I can't imagine missing bowl eligibility 2 years in a row. Slightly irrational bowl dreams aside, I'd probably put my money on the marks of 5-7 or 4-8, anything better than that just being gravy.
Actually, I don't think you have enough optimism. I don't think there's any way they can do worse than 7-5.
I think if they win less than 7 games then it is quite possible
You are either:
A) 12 years old
B) a Troll
C) All of the above?
I don't think we have any shot to go 12-0...nor do I think that we will have another sub-.500 season...I think with the talent we have, the schedule, RR's ability to turn around a team in year two, 8-4 is a reasonable goal to strive for this year. But, at least you have optimism and aren't on here picking OSU to win...I mean wtf is that about people?!
Predicting OSU to beat Michigan = realistic expectations.
Everyone on here loves Michigan and wants Michigan to win every game. But being a fan (even a rabid fan) does not require blatant "homerism." Unfortunately, an objective assessment of the teams suggests that OSU will beat Michigan this year.
Of course Michigan COULD win. And I, along with every single Michigan fan, will anxiously anticipate that game and cheer loudly for the Maize and Blue (read: yell loudly at my TV). Do I expect Michigan to win that game? No, because Michigan is rebuilding and coming off a 3-9 season. Does that change my status as a fan? Absolutely not.
Michigan is transforming and reforming itself into a different team, which takes some time. I have complete faith that Michigan will be competing for Big Ten titles sooner rather than later. But I personally find nothing wrong with saying, "the odds are not in Michigan's favor for this game, but I don't care -- Go Blue!"
"objective assessment of the teams suggests that OSU will beat Michigan this year"
Didn't they lose something like 20 starters from last years team? I just don't see why everyone is so in love with tuos here. Someone please explain...
Probably because OSU tends to reload, not rebuild.
That's still nothing substantial to base any predictions on. Oh, they reload, okay. (sarcasm) What kind of offensive and defensive production do they have coming back that would lead anyone to say they are going to be really good and that UM has little to no chance?
The weaknesses on our roster are well documented. That doesn't mean that OSU will win, nor does it mean that we can't have a sudden coalescing of talent and scheme that allows us to take a big step forward and approach that game on equal footing. But it does mean that coming off of 3-9, and with holes that (as of yet) have not been filled, it is entirely realistic to say we will go into that game as the underdog. If OSU has an average talent level for them, and an average record during the Tressel years, they are likely to enter that game at 9-2 or so. Do you think we will?
Nobody is "in love with" OSU. People just realize that OSU consistently fields an excellent football team. And people also realize that Michigan will be playing a true freshman QB (or Nick Sheridan), is still implementing a new offense, is facing depth issues on the DL, has no proven safeties . . . among other issues.
These issues take time to remedy and correct; it will not happen overnight. We all expected the offense to dramatically improve from game one to game twelve last year. The offense did improve, but not as drastically as we had all hoped.
OSU is projected to contend for a Big Ten Title for a reason. Michigan is not projected to contend for a reason. Now, that will change eventually, but probably (emphasis on probably) not this year.
OSU loses (Guys that actually played):
RBs Beanie & Mo Wells
FB Brandon Smith
WRs Robiskie & Hartline
OLs Boone, Person & Rehring
LBs Laurinaitis & Freeman
CB Jenkins & Washington
Jenkins, Beanie and Laurinaitis are the only irreplaceable guys on that list. Lots of the others (Boone, Rehring, Hartline, Mo Wells) were underachievers who probably won't be missed much. OSU should have a better line, better receivers, and certainly an improved QB next year. Biggest questions are the secondary and LBs, but there is a LOT of talent waiting @ LB.
tOSU has had top recruiting classes for a couple of years, and that will pay a lot of dividends in the coming year. That's why everyone is so high on them.
and I hate to sound like a sparty, but you're sounding like a domer homer, and i'm choosing the lesser of two evils.
Expectations need to be lowered.
The defense will probably not be better, since the strength of the entire team ("D" line) is decimated. 6 wins is probably the ceiling this year. Offense won't be very good this year either. 2010 is when RichRod earns his pay, hopefully.
Saying 6 wins is the ceiling is overly pessimistic. I don't think we have an ice cube's chance in hell to win all 12, but saying 6 is the ceiling is harsh. So what it your realistic win total? 3? 4?
The defensive line is gone, but most of the linebackers are back, plus Brown and Williams and Warren and Cissoko. Those guys all have another year of experience.
I'm not as worried about the D-line as most. BG was the highlight of the DL and he's back. Mike Martin played quite a bit as a true freshman and should be much improved as well, meaning he could be a near wash with Johnson. Big Will is looking like a monster, and although he won't be as good as TT, that might not be a huge drop-off either. That leaves us with RVB replacing Tim Jamison, which is likely a step down, but RVB got a lot of reps last year too. Add in that we will be playing some 3 man fronts, and the drop-off in the DL is small.
LB's will be better. JB replacing Thompson, with the other two returning and one year better.
DB's are a question mark, but Magnus covered that. Throw Brandon Smith into what he said, and the DB corps could be a little worse, but probably not much. Could actually be better.
COW JUMPS OVER MOON
that is all
What's up with this "could" crap? We WILL go 12-0.
That's last years schedule.
OMG that's last year's
OMG that's last years joke
Siri, remind me on April 15, 2013 to re-post in the McFarlin thread.
Here is your reminder for April 15, 2013
"Repost in the MacFarland Brad."
Shall I create it?
Ohio state is doable if Pryor bails or the NCAA steps in for full season for the crooks and Cheaty Sweatervest.
only at -2?