Michigan 64, Wisconsin 58
The knockout blow. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
Derrick Walton pump-faked, got Wisconsin's defense to collapse, and found Muhammad-Ali Adbur-Rahkman, who hit a corner bomb through contact for a four-point play that gave Michigan the lead. While perhaps not expected, it wasn't the least likely thing in the world.
Then came the following sequence: Mark Donnal blocked Ethan Happ, Michigan got out on the fast break, and Zak Irvin's three-pointer hit nothing but net. Suddenly the Wolverines were up seven.
Um, okay!
A few minutes later, Irvin found himself one-on-one on Ethan Happ, who'd dominated every defender Michigan threw his way. Irvin held his ground, though, and Moe Wagner picked off Happ's attempt to kick the ball back out. Adbur-Rahkman rewarded his center with a feed on the ensuing fast break, and the force of Wagner's dunk knocked Wisconsin's Zak Showalter to the ground. Crisler got as loud as it's been all season.
"I've been guarding fours and fives since I was a freshman here," said Irvin. "I guarded [Frank] Kaminsky as a freshman when we played Wisconsin. So it's really nothing new. Ethan Happ is a great player, I give him all the credit, but I think we really just wanted to win more."
On the strength of that second-half run, Michigan got a much-needed victory over a ranked team, and it didn't come in a fashion anyone expected. Happ was unstoppable for most of the evening, scoring 22 points on 10-for-13 shooting and dishing out six assists. Walton, who'd carried the scoring load for much of the last month, had eight assists but only mustered five points. DJ Wilson helped erase Nigel Hayes on defense, but he was invisible on offense; the two seemed to cancel each other out.
Irvin's improbable banked-in three may have snapped his slump. [Bryan Fuller]
Coming to life after a couple midrange jumpers and a banked-in three from the top of the key, Irvin broke out of his slump at the perfect time. Irvin's 18 points were the most he's scored since dropping 20 in the first game against Wisconsin nearly a month ago to the day. His passing and defense were also critical components of tonight's win.
"I made the pull-up in the beginning of the first half," said Irvin. "That's usually my go-to shot, so I got to see that one go down, had a lot of confidence after that. The bank shot, you know, it's three points, so I'll take it any way I can get it, to be honest with you."
The win seemed unattainable only a few minutes into the second half. Wisconsin had fought off an 8-2 Michigan run to start the game, riding Happ to a one-point halftime lead. They stormed out of the gate in the second with a 7-0 run featuring a Happ assist and a bucket that brought him to 20 points with 17:35 to play. The Wolverines countered with six quick points, however, and after the teams traded a few buckets, Irvin found the bank open late and Happ committed his second foul. Irvin would score eight more points; Happ would go scoreless for the duration, harried by more frequent double-teams, and eventually foul out of the game.
MAAR's four-point play lit up the building. [Campredon]
Michigan got huge baskets down the stretch from Wagner, who drilled a late pick-and-pop triple over Happ to get to a team-high 21 points, and Rahkman, who needed only eight shots to net his 12. Even though the Wolverines missed a couple front-end free throws in the bonus, Wisconsin couldn't draw closer than five points after the final media timeout, and that only came after a comical five-shot possession that burned most of the remaining clock. Fittingly, it was Irvin who capped the scoring at the free-throw line.
"We knew our backs were against the wall going into this stretch that we have," said Irvin. "It still is. This helps us out, beating Wisconsin, but we can't let our foot off the gas. We've got to keep our foot on the gas. We know Minnesota is going to be a tough environment, and we'll be ready for it."
February 16th, 2017 at 10:31 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 12:15 AM ^
February 16th, 2017 at 10:32 PM ^
February 16th, 2017 at 10:38 PM ^
February 16th, 2017 at 10:41 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 12:28 AM ^
February 16th, 2017 at 10:42 PM ^
February 16th, 2017 at 11:01 PM ^
M deserved the W. Great win
If I never see Wisconsin play b ball again, I'll be thrilled. They really play ugly ball.
February 16th, 2017 at 10:42 PM ^
February 16th, 2017 at 10:59 PM ^
I completely concur. Critical for this team to keep its momentum going. Self-belief, confidence, rebounding, defense, effort wins games. Must win to continue to build those things.
February 16th, 2017 at 11:26 PM ^
Still not on board (with the idea this is a tourney team.
You may be overestimating what a tourney team actually looks like. Don't forget, 68 teams get in. I would say we are playing much better basketball than last year's Michigan team at this same point in the season, and they made the field.
We're 7-6 in league play, but +57 on the scoreboard, which suggests that we're better than our record indicates. With that scoring margin, you wouldn't expect us to be that close to .500.
February 16th, 2017 at 11:27 PM ^
Last year's team had 5 RPI Top 100 (4 Top 50) wins. This team has 10 RPI Top 100 (3 Top 50) wins with 5 to play, including 4 Top-100 opponents (3 in the Top 50). This team will make the tournament barring a horrific collapse.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:03 AM ^
much better than last years squad when playing to its potential. We're 28th in kenpom with some bad luck (lot of close losses) and a very poor stretch of defense, whereas last year we were 55th going into the tourney.
Last year, it was an accomplishment just to be there after Caris went down. This could be a sweet 16 team. The talent is there. The balance is there. The experience is there. Just need to keep up the focus and effort.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:17 AM ^
was a little more top heavy. Last year they went 3-7 against rpi 1-25, 1-4 against rpi 26-50 and 0-1 against rip 51-100.
This year they've gone1-3 against rpi 1-25. 1-3 against rip 26-50, and 7-2 against rpi 51-100.
They way this team is playing though is better than what they were playing last year, and I agree, barring a horrific collapse they should be in the tourney.
February 17th, 2017 at 6:28 AM ^
I sure hope you all are right.
If Minnesota does beat us in the barn, Purdue at home we do not match up well against, and at NW looms. I would not call that a horrific collapse to lose those games, but losing those would almost certainly leave us as at least the seventh Big Ten team in the tourney in a down year for the conference nationally. 7 may not happen.
WI win is a big relief, because now an L to Purdue at home would not kill us. We are going to have to prove our road mettle though; falter, and people will be screaming 6 Big Ten teams are more than enough. The Committee may listen.
Beat Minnesota, PLEASE!
February 17th, 2017 at 8:17 AM ^
Yes, Minnesota is big because we're tied with them in the conference standings.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:13 AM ^
Yeah, scoring margin has us 4th in the Big Ten, Kenpom 3rd. Conference is relatively weak, but still. This is a decent team that had an unreal string of bad luck with opponent three point percentage in January.
February 17th, 2017 at 8:24 AM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 8:40 AM ^
I need to see a B1G road win in a solid environment before I'm sold its 100% not that team.Are we no longer counting Assembly Hall as a solid environment?
February 17th, 2017 at 8:58 AM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 1:49 AM ^
Indiana at Assembly. That's about as tough an environment (especially for Michigan over the years) as possible.
My gosh, Michigan just completed as good a 3-game run as we've had in a long time - win on the road at Indiana, blow out the Izzo's, and beat Beilein's nemesis Badgers. That's as good as it gets.
It's time to give this team, and this coach, some credit. They dug themselves a pretty deep hole, and fought their way out.
This is a tournament team, and deservedly so. The season isn't over by any stretch, but barring catastrophe, we're in. Even better, we are peaking at the right time.
Go Blue! Keep it up!
February 17th, 2017 at 10:08 AM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 10:53 AM ^
We have 4 of 5 left on the road.
Still work to do.
February 17th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
I was responding to one specific statement:
"I need to see a B1G road win in a solid environment"
If you'd said "another B1G road win" I wouldn't have replied at all. Assembly Hall is always a brutally difficult building, especially for Michigan. Only WI and MSU could possibly be considered equally tough B1G environments for us.
Going forward, winning 2 of 3 vs. Rut, Neb and NW is plenty - those environments don't compare with Assembly. Beating MN and/or Purdue would be great, but aren't necessary.
Regarding all the "fire Beilein" threads - you're absolutely right. I'm firmly in the pro-JB camp, just decided to stop engaging with those who feel otherwise. I find the negativity toward our hoops coach, players and program baffling. The game threads are ugly, even when we win.
February 17th, 2017 at 4:25 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 7:32 PM ^
While always a supporter of JB and the team, I also wondered if making the tournament was realistic after the OSU game, facing a really difficult part of the schedule.
3 wins later and the whole course of the season has turned around. It's now very likely we're tournament-bound once again - and I love it!
Definitely wasn't offended by anything you said - just jumped in to make a point.
Still work to be done, but definitely back on track.
February 16th, 2017 at 10:47 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 12:16 AM ^
February 16th, 2017 at 10:49 PM ^
Pretty shaky down the stretch, but continued to fight and found a way to win. Big, big, big win. We would have not won this game a few weeks ago.
Tonight we did not play our best, but won. Wagner great, Walton's shot was off, but still led the team to the victory.
Towards the end, we gave them 3 dumb fouls to allow them to score 6 points with no time running off, we missed two critical one and one's ourselves, Irvin missed a wide open Wagner for a dunk by two feet, and it took us three times to barely get the ball in bounds once with nine seconds left. Thankfully, Irvin hit the free throws. He missed one shot tonight by so much, it went in for three off the backboard. He played out of control much of the night, but he was a key contributor, and he is expending effort on D.
Best sign---not their best game, but won by fighting for it, wanting it more. Great, great win. Now a win at Minnesota would almost seal it, a loss and we have work to do. Take it now!
February 17th, 2017 at 2:04 AM ^
we were down 8 with 17:39 to play and went on to outscore them by 17 over the next 16 minutes to be up 9 with 1:14 remaining. They did not have a run during that time in which they outscored us by even four points - wow, just realized how incredible that is. For 16 minutes they did not hit two straight FGs without us scoring at least once in between.
The game was over by that point. As you detailed, we couldn't have helped them out any more in the last 1:14 (missed FTs happen sometimes) but it didn't matter.
February 17th, 2017 at 6:09 AM ^
It could have mattered big time if they had hit an outside shot or two, and you're right, we gave them every chance to in the last 2-3 minutes.
Three straight possessions we gave them free throws early in the shot clock on needless fouls when the first order of business should have been "whatever happens, do not foul" (one on a questionable call on Walton). We missed the front end of two one-and-ones, Irvins's pass to a wide-open 6'10" Wagner at the bucket from our backcourt missed him by two feet, and the 3 inbounds attempts with nine seconds left is beyond comical at this point. Irvin barely caught the third attempt and got fouled, and finally someone salted the game. All that happened in more than just the last 1:14.
That was the "stretch", the end game. It was a short reappearance of the old team, not this seemingly new team.
I agree with your unspoken core point though, that the come from behind fight leading to that bad sequence in the stretch was an impressive display of will and effort, and not on our best night, which I believe Wisconsin's athleticism had something to do with. Happ nearly killed us, and their wings neutralized ours. Good thing Koenig not around to attempt a dagger at the end. We'll take it, finally a break from the Gods, like the post below says about Irvin's errant 3.
I am a bit nervous going into Minnesota. We cannot let that old team reappear for long again. A loss would not kill us, but then we would have to go on a run again to get off the bubble. Let's make the run now.
February 17th, 2017 at 8:37 AM ^
-you don't want to let them score with the clock stopped- BUT- if ever there was a situation where this might not be so bad it is where the alternative might be between a lay-up and what has been a bad foul shooting team shooting FTs (Wisconsin).
February 17th, 2017 at 2:20 PM ^
I'm not sure why you're talking about the last 2-3 minutes. We continued to extend our lead to 9 without giving up any runs all the way to the 1:14 mark. After which point our two best - 90 percent (!!!) - FT shooters each missed front ends of 1-and-1's. Not much you can do but shrug at that, and it just meant that we won by six instead of a little more.
Making one or two more three pointers was an impossibility for them since their three possessions in the last minute went: 2 FTs made, missed layup with duncan getting the rebound, crazy series of offensive rebounds leading to Hayes layup with 9 seconds left. They did not miss a three pointer in a possession that didn't end up with two points anyway. There were no hypothetical possessions that could have swung three more points in their favor without giving us even more FTs. Did Walton make a mistake on the foul? Sure. One foul. It is not a concern. At no point in the last minute did our win odds drop below 99%.
I will say the inability to inbound the ball is an issue that has persisted for Beilien teams from time immemorial. We were doing that during our conference title seasons. It doesn't seem to matter who is throwing it in. I don't get it. I wish we would do better there in higher leverage situations, but again it did not matter here. And give Wisconsin credit too. Their guards are very, very sticky on defense and they got a kind of fluky bounce off a 50/50 call.
February 17th, 2017 at 8:28 AM ^
You know, from a game-theory standpoint, I don't know if it's really that bad to foul when you're up 6-8 points in the last minute. Conventional wisdom says that it is because it allows the opponent to score with the clock stopped - but it also (assuming you can get a rebound) ends their possession, and it's hard to come back from a multi-possession deficit without hitting any threes. For this reason you also see teams often give up uncontested layups in the last minute.
You'd ideally like to just get stops of course, but it may be statistically better to make your opponent shoot FTs than allow them to get off 3-point attempts. This is definitely true in the last few seconds of the game, but the math might check out going up to a minute or so. (Certainly, it helps if you don't miss two front ends of one-and-ones...)
February 17th, 2017 at 10:03 AM ^
Interesting point, but I doubt if it was what Beilein, or any other coach, had in mind, especially against guards away from the hoop. (although Walton almost had a steal) Contest the three, move your feet to get a charge if they bull their way in, but, avoid fouling at any cost.
Six straight free throws later, they had six points without even one extra second going off on the clock after those three early fouls in the possessions. That is why they call them "free" throws.
It is also why the other team is fouling you when behind, to stop the clock while hoping for point differentials. They have no choice other than to give you the "free" throws. If the clock runs, you win.
February 17th, 2017 at 11:39 AM ^
I'm not saying this was our strategy, just that it arguably could be a successful one.
It is also why the other team is fouling you when behind, to stop the clock while hoping for point differentials. They have no choice other than to give you the "free" throws. If the clock runs, you win.
Teams foul to both stop the clock and end your possession. They need the ball back. If you foul in the last minute, you prevent the other team from using the possession any other way - whether it's trying to dribble out the clock or shoot a 3.
The game-theory argument is that fouling and potentially surrendering two points (but no more, if you rebound) is preferable to surrendering three. Wisconsin shaved the lead down a bit, but could not get within a possession, even though they got the best-case scenario (two missed one-and-ones by Michigan) at the other end. Getting 2 points per possession wasn't enough for them. OTOH, if they had drained two 3-pointers on two possessions where they made a pair of FTs, then it would have been a three-point game with 9 seconds left and that inbounds call could have been a game-changer.
February 16th, 2017 at 10:50 PM ^
February 16th, 2017 at 11:24 PM ^
I'll give him credit, he made some nice adjustments on Happ in the 2nd half. First time this team has looked good for a 3 game stretch all year, I'd love to see them keep it up.
February 17th, 2017 at 7:26 AM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 2:28 PM ^
adjustments though. In their two previous games, Nebraska and NW held Happ to 3-9 and 3-8 shooting, respectively, with combined 7 TOs by doubling him. The blueprint was there, every pundit going into the game talked about doubling him, even Beilien talked before the game about it.
With Koenig out and Happ being clearly the only guy with a good individual matchup agaisnt us, it is pretty baffling that we waited so long to deploy the strategy, ESPECIALLY since we had just done it with good success against IU bigs. We had been practicing it and employing it to good effect.
We let them hang around in the first half because of that (and the weird decision to go wtih Teske). It should have been an easier win.
February 16th, 2017 at 10:50 PM ^
February 17th, 2017 at 12:15 AM ^
Might have something to do with the fact that the shot he's best at besides the spot up three is the midrange 2 off the dribble. Which is the shot Wisconsin wants you to take and will give you whenever you want it.
February 16th, 2017 at 10:55 PM ^
give Donnal some love in the frame-by-frame this week with his absolute clear out box-out on Vitto Brown with 8:34 left in the game. Textbook. That's how you approach defensive rebounding. Don't go for the ball, just make sure you get a body on your man because no matter where it goes you have position to go get it or someone else will if they're doing their job.
Beautiful thing to see after he got cleared out by Tate while trying to get a defensive rebound. Donnal had a really nice game for not even taking a shot. He played...dare I say, tough?
Great effort by everyone.
February 16th, 2017 at 10:59 PM ^
He really did and it paid off for the team. Some gritty rebounding and tap outs to gather some ORebs for the team were huge...I forget if we even scored off of them but it showed some voracity the team could follw. And his defense was..."stout"?! Nice game Mark. Keep up the energy, fight, and toughness.
February 16th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
His second half defense was pretty good.
We had #FreeTeske going in the first half because Donnel's *defense* was 404 Error File Not Found
February 16th, 2017 at 11:49 PM ^
Donnal's first half wasn't as good as his second, but Teske's first-half D was rough.
February 16th, 2017 at 11:56 PM ^
I'm assuming the #FreeTeske happened before he was freed and then woof. I assume the #FreeTeske crowd will finally, mercifully believe Beilein that Donnal is the better player right now - by a wide margin even.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:14 AM ^
More #CloneWagner than anything else. Too bad that kid clearly can't go 35/game between endurance and Big Ten refs hating Germans.
February 17th, 2017 at 12:22 AM ^
but since that can't happen for reasons you mention, we will certainly take 10 minutes of the Donnal we got tonight.
February 17th, 2017 at 8:17 AM ^
Yeah, sorry, I didn't mean Teske looked good - I'm saying that Donnel didn't look good either, which is why Teske got the chance.
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