Mailbag: Long Discussion Of Brandon Email Post, DANTONIOAD, Turnovers Comment Count

Brian

[ED: Hey guys! Ace is looking for a few good questions for a basketball season preview mailbag. Hit him up at [email protected].]

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Meta-response about yesterday's post.

[ED: I normally hack out praise from these emails in an effort to be as concise as possible but it was not possible to do so here without making bronx sound like a jerk.]

Hey Brian,

I've been trying to think of a better way to ask this, but I can't so I'll just come out with it:

What is/was your goal with reporting about the Brandon emails? 

Man, yeah, that comes across as condescending.  Let me try to explain.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be given their due. and I respect the hell out of you and Ace putting in the effort to figure out their veracity; count me in the camp of people who doubted WD's initial post due to the inconsistencies in his story.  Following through on the story and backing it up with multiple sources is the type of reporting you don't expect to see from a "fan" site, and yet you guys did better work than I've seen in a long time from more established media members in the community.  Heck, it's basically you guys and the Daily kicking ass in that department.

But once the dust settles, how do you see this information positively or negatively affecting the program going forward?  I've made my feelings known about Brandon and how, frankly, this really shouldn't accelerate his removal (I mean, if his handling of Gibbons, Morris, ticket prices, attendance, stadium experience, alumni relations, coaching snafus, losing, etc. doesn't do him in but bitchy emails do I'll be a bit disappointed in the administration for needing something so trivial to move them to action), but I honestly want to know your take.  Do you think the fan's role in the turmoil surrounding the program, now being given a wider public forum by your site than in the past, will ultimately hurt its recovery going forward? 

For example, you mentioned in your podcast that fans' habits can be broken quickly and it can take a generation to get them back.  You and Ace seem to think that Brandon and Hoke coming back would lead to an exodus, but are you worried that the level of vitriol displayed by the fans already shows the pivot point already happened, and that everything from this point on is just piling on and driving even more fans away?  Personally, I'm less and less excited to follow this team even this year because it is just a clown show made worse by the negative tone so many fans seem to hold toward it.  My Facebook feed is full of people linking to articles calling for Hoke an co. to be booted (many to mgoblog), and lots of them were moderately-sane fans before the last couple of years.  I'm not saying you and the site are to blame for any of it; you are just reporting and commenting on the shit show being trotted out every week.  But do you think we'll look back in a couple of years and wonder if too much gas was thrown on the fire?

And again, I'm conflicted even asking this, because you guys have a duty to ferret out these idiots and bring them to the public's eye, and you do a great job at capturing the Michigan zeitgeist effectively.  But there's just such a toxic culture around the program, and I wonder even if they get some homerun hires (which I'm a bit dubious about), if some of this damage will linger. 

Anyway, feel free to respond however you want; if part of this makes its way into a mailbag or something then by all means out me and respond how you wish.  I'm fine with it.  I honestly just want to know.

Thanks.

-BronxBlue

I made a decision to let the original Have A Happy Life email stand—in fact I made a decision to re-instate it after one of the mods pulled it 200 comments deep—and from there things proceeded inexorably to yesterday's post.

I let it stand because I thought it was true.

[After THE JUMP: a full run-down of the decision to run with this story and evaluation about whether this was in error.]

As I said in the post, over the past few years about two dozen different people have emailed me their interactions with Brandon. The purported Brandon consistently overused ellipses and exclamation points. Most emails had that arrogant tone, sometimes subtle, sometimes not. There was no way all these different people were snowing me, especially early on when we were just somewhat cranky with Brandon.

The first burst of these came after Brandon broached the possibility of moving the OSU-M game to midseason in a WTKA interview. Brandon got a lot of emails about how that was a very bad idea and responded to them like so…

image

…at the time emailers generally said "this guy is kind of a jerk" and let it drop; I did too. But I knew that this was a thing, as did a lot of people I talked to. I have a dozen more of these after yesterday.

I've let my internet spidey sense guide me for my career here and it's served me well—if you seek a popular blog, look around you. I went with it here, and then a few things happened.

  1. An Olbermann staffer found it and got it on freakin' ESPN. ESPN actually credited us on TV, to which my response was "Oh no. Oh no no no no."
  2. A skeptical MGoBlog user submitted an FOIA specifically tailored to return this result and got nothing. This caused a maelstrom of recriminations for Wolverine Devotee, whose only crime is purchasing Michigan alternate jerseys.
  3. I found out that there was a very good reason this FOIA was not likely to return a response, as detailed in the post.
  4. I felt the FOIA response was tactical. I had FOIAs pending at the time, filed before the MGoBlog user filed his. The U took the absolute maximum time allotted to respond to them, and when I filed a FOIA request in summer of 2013 that was similarly non-responsive they again took the maximum amount of time. The quick response to his request felt like selective efficiency designed to release information they desired to release, and this made me even more certain of the email's legitimacy.
  5. A second, detailed email chain was provided to me by another reader.

So now we're in a situation where we've been credited nationally for something that might be bunk but probably isn't bunk and thanks to the multiple emails we can confirm or disconfirm with great confidence. Plus there is the strong, false implication that the thing is bunk provided by the nonresponsive FOIA request.

At that point there is really no decision about whether to go forward or not, especially after Ace did yeoman work to actually track down the original Have A Nice Life post with headers and all. It was my call to let the original post stand, so now I have a responsibility to follow that through.

The one thing we can absolutely not afford is to be wrong, or even perceived as wrong, about anything. It is so much worse for us than a larger outlet. If we had published something like the Oklahoma State expose, we would be done. Doomed. If something is news-ish from us it cannot be sort of news-ish, it has to be ironclad. This is why the site's rumor reporting has always gone with the maximum amount of transparency possible—that's the closest thing to iron we've got in those situations.

We have solid, newsworthy information that we need to disclose. The only thing that would have prevented us from talking in this situation would be if the release of the information was damaging to a student-athlete, a private citizen, or the department.

I do not consider Dave Brandon the department. If Dave Brandon is fired and replaced nothing we published affects Michigan one iota. It is my opinion that Dave Brandon leaving would be a great boon for Michigan. That's not why I published, but it is why I didn't hold my tongue like I had for the previous three years.

To answer the questions above directly:

What is/was your goal with reporting about the Brandon emails? 

To confirm something that had been reported as Reported By Us, and vindicate a guy who was right in the first place. And to publish something newsworthy.

Once the dust settles, how do you see this information positively or negatively affecting the program going forward? 

If Brandon is replaced it does not affect the program. If Brandon is kept it probably sucks out a few more ticket holders.

Do you think the fan's role in the turmoil surrounding the program, now being given a wider public forum by your site than in the past, will ultimately hurt its recovery going forward? 

I reject the notion that the fans have any role in the "turmoil" except as people responding to said turmoil. The fans did not go 2-11 against Ohio State and 1-6 against Michigan State over the last X years. The fans did not leave Shane Morris on the field—the fans actually urged Michigan to take him off. The fans did not botch the aftermath of the Morris incident such that it led national news for almost a week.

All of that is orders of magnitude more damaging to the program than anything a fan will ever say.

And anyway Michigan fans have in fact been super patient. How many other programs going through this fallow period would have put 113,000 in the stands for a game everyone knew was going to be a dud? Look at how much money we are providing relative to performance, with this home schedule and this team.

The idea that Michigan fans are somehow worse than other fanbases is ridiculous. I did This Week In Schadefreude for years. Michigan is nowhere near the most volatile fanbase. We care our asses off; spinning that as a negative is backwards.

You and Ace seem to think that Brandon and Hoke coming back would lead to an exodus, but are you worried that the level of vitriol displayed by the fans already shows the pivot point already happened, and that everything from this point on is just piling on and driving even more fans away?

This question seems to assert that fans complaining about the degraded state of the program is why fans are discontent. Again, if that is impacting Michigan negatively the size of that effect is dwarfed by the losing and inept PR provided by its leadership. This is a response to the things negatively impacting the program.

If the guy negatively impacting the entire University's public image is removed, the fans immediately get hopeful and happy. That's how this works.

Do you think we'll look back in a couple of years and wonder if too much gas was thrown on the fire?

No. Fans want Brandon out. As soon as Brandon goes, the fire goes. At this point the most damaging thing possible is Brandon's retention.

-------------------------------

Amongst the copious positive feedback from yesterday there was the occasional comparison of our decision to publish Brandon's emails to stretchgate, including a hilarious thread on Rivals calling for a boycott of this here site.

This kind of response comes from a fear that publishing the way we do hurts the program. I don't think that's true. I think the program hurts the program. The reaction yesterday indicates that the great majority of the fanbase is with us, and we stand by our decision.

I'll talk about this more later but when we do get significant pushback we change our tack. I got a lot of concerned reactions to the idea of a Maryland boycott and I'm dropping that idea. Yes, even if Brandon is still in place. I misjudged what an appropriate response would look like there.

I've gotten zero indication that's the case here—even that Rivals thread quickly turned into a bunch of people bombing the few proponents. If we err, we own it; this is not an error.

Harbaugh precedent?

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ain't no precedent for an NFL coach wearing google glass neither

Hello MGoBlog,

I can't think of a single example of a successful NFL head coach who left the league to take a college job (e.g., an NFL coach who had a winning record one season and then coached in college the next season).

Would a Harbaugh-to-Michigan move after this season be literally unprecedented?

Mitch Price

Seattle, WA

I think so. Help me out, hivemind, but I could not find a single instance of a successful NFL coach leaving his job for college. There have been a few instances where guys bail on the NFL:

  • Bobby Petrino ditched the Falcons at the tail end of their season after going 3-10 in his first year
  • Nick Saban did leave the Dolphins after two years without getting axed. He was 6-10 in his second year.
  • Steve Spurrier resigned after two years in Washington, took a year off, and then took the South Carolina job.
    That appears to be the full list of NFL head coaches who voluntarily returned to college.

So it would  be unprecedented for an NFL coach who seems like a good NFL coach to go back to college. But Harbaugh is an unprecedented guy in a lot of ways. How many coaches coming off back-to-back-to-back conference championship game appearances are dogged by constant rumors he's out the door no matter what?

There are college guys and there are NFL guys; Michigan is hoping that their guy is a college guy who happens to also be a great NFL coach until people get tired of him.

Turnover stuff

I know that you ascribe turnovers to randomness, but do you think that it feeds itself? Not getting turnovers leads to not looking for turnovers or trying to create turnovers?  It feels like our DB's don't even look to pick things off over the middle - rather they are looking to "bring the wood".

Nate

That's not entirely true. I ascribe fumble recovery rates to luck. This was a position of some controversy after Michigan picked up 74% of the fumbles that hit the ground in 2011, fueling Michigan's stunning defensive turnaround that year. Michigan has not come anywhere close to repeating that feat. The last three years they were/are at 51%, 61%, and 40%. There is no repeatability to fumble recoveries.

Turnovers in general are pretty random just because they're low probability events, but anyone who's watched football knows that hitting people hard and getting pressure on the quarterback are reliable ways to force TOs; having a young quarterback is a reliable way to cough 'em up. College teams have so much turnover from year to year that TO rates tend to have very low repeatability.

Phil Steele uses TOs to predict up-and-downswings from teams annually. He has good success predicting that teams who suffered a huge negative TO margin will improve. If turnovers were repeatable year to year that strategy would backfire.

But anyway, the question: I think that Michigan's lack of TOs forced this year is a combination of bad, predictable coverage in the secondary and bad luck. It's hard to force an interception when the QB is rifling it to a wide open first read. You can't apply pressure to the QB and you can't, like, cover the guy he's throwing to. Michigan has not forced many throws into tight windows. Coverage across the middle has been particularly nonexistent, and that is an area of the field a lot of coaches fear to go because dangers lurk therein.

I don't think it piles on itself; I think it's just an effect of not being very good.

DANTONIOAD

Hey Brian and Ace,

I've figured out why people think Dantonio's reaction to the spike was cool and good.

Listen, run the score up or don't. As people have repeated ad nauseam, "it ain't Dernternier's jerb to sterp his term!" That's fine as far it goes. And I also understand that beating Michigan and feeding red meat to the fanbase are each about 45% of his job.

But why do people think it's cool that he got so offended by the lesser team's dumb motivational ploy? Why do people think this is how an adult who makes millions of dollars a year should behave?

It's actually quite simp . . . ALL HAIL THE HYPNOTOAD!

Best,

Tom in DC

It is cool that he got offended by the lesser team's motivational ploy because Dantonio's never ending torrent of anger has made Michigan State as good as they've been since the 1960s.

This is not how an adult who makes millions of dollars a year should behave, but football coaches are not expected to be adults. See: Bo, Woody, etc. Football coaches are expected to be high-functioning lunatics.

Here is a DANTONIOAD anyway.

Hypnotonio

Seth Fisher

You now feel a need to apologize for anything you have ever done that might offend Mark Dantonio, which is everything.

Why haven't we fired him yet?

Brian,

Why is Brady Hoke still the Michigan football coach this morning? While there may be a dearth of promising interim options, what benefit is there to keeping a clearly inept and doomed coach at the helm? The current players cannot be enjoying this, they are not improving, and they may not really care anymore. Further, no recruit currently committed to UM can realistically think Hoke will be still be here after December, and no un-committed or once-committed prospect is likely swayed that the program is heading somewhere good while Hoke persists as the "I think I was aware that something happened, but I'm not fully aware" guy.

Shouldn't Michigan create an opening right now, post it on the job board, and begin rounding up all the lucre it needs for Jim Harbaugh or someone else sufficient for the task at hand? Even if David Brandon is also headed for a career change, doesn't officially firing Hoke free up more permanent forces--boosters, donors, Jesus--to work on a football regime change?

Joey

The benefits of firing Hoke now are dubious because of the AD situation, and because search firms exist. If anyone at Michigan has their business right, they're already gauging possible candidates.

Letting Hoke stay on does provide some fringe recruiting benefits—they're still out there visiting places, trying to get guys in, offering the occasional in-state three star. Letting him go out on his own terms instead of roughly pulling the plug will help soften the blow for the players on the team, who are universally said to like Hoke. Midseason firings are mostly reserved for coaches who are loathed by their team (see Weis, Charlie) for a reason. If the players feel that Michigan did Hoke wrong they might be more inclined to transfer.

I don't think it matters much either way but after the initial flush of post-Morris anger I've come to accept that keeping Hoke on until the end of the season is the right move. I would still give him his walking papers before OSU on the off chance there's a miracle that muddies the waters.

Comments

CalifExile

October 29th, 2014 at 2:41 PM ^

You need 100 MGoPoints to do so. You get one point for each post. You get 2 points for each upvote and lose one point for each downvote.

It was amusing to see WD come out ahead on points when Jon06 posted about his failed FOIA request and someone in the thread suggested he should be neg banged. There were something like 43 upvotes on the single comment WD added to the thread and 81 downvotes so WD earned 1 point + 86 points minus 81 votes.

westwardwolverine

October 29th, 2014 at 2:51 PM ^

I believe you need 100 points to do all the things you just said? I helped you out with an upvote. 

Come on everyone, lets get this old timer over 100! 

 

BornInA2

October 29th, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^

I just can't say how great it is to have someone doing some real investigative reporting on the athletic department, instead of just rehashing press conferences and writing "chicken little" articles.

For my part, if Brandon wrote these emails, and it sure looks likely from my chair in Seattle, they show a pattern of disdain toward fans, alums, season ticket holders, etc. who don't agree with what's going on. AND, exceptionally poor judgement in the form of not simply ignoring "rant-ish" emails. The worst possible thing to do is to write and send dickish replies. I mean, that's the sort of thing people do when they are drunk. And hmm, didn't he accuse a fan of being drunk when writing one of the emails? Hmmm...

If it turns out he wrote these I think he should be gone. If he tried to cover it up even worse. If he violated the law and/or the University is willfully trying to avoid FOIA requirements in any way (like, for example, using Google for their official email), then more heads should roll.

I have no tolerance for public employees who are abusive toward the public that employs them. Follow the rules, be professional, or get out.

Brodie

October 30th, 2014 at 12:48 AM ^

he was a pretty crappy pro head coach in 1973-1974. I don't doubt he could have had an NFL job when he went to Miami or that he could have probably gotten one instead of heading to Louisville but it's a pretty bad comparison.

Though, let him always be a lesson: you can turn Miami into a national champion and turn Louisville into a consistant winner and still flame out in a single season in Oklahoma.

dnak438

October 29th, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^

that when I see "Dantonioad" my brain corrects it to "Dantoniad" and thinks it's an epic poem about Dantonio? (Like the Iliad is about Ilium, the Aeneid about Aeneas, etc.)

I'm looking into the official neo-Latin word for 'blog.' I should have an answer soon for those of you who care. I found some discussions online but most of those people seemed to have pretty weak Latin.

RalphWiggum

October 29th, 2014 at 1:12 PM ^

Quality stuff as usual. The mother of one of my good friend's worked with Brandon at Valassis and she said that Dave was "such a nice man." I'm guessing he had a personality transplant along the way.

GoWings2008

October 29th, 2014 at 1:18 PM ^

My mom worked with Brandon, also at Valassis and heard some interesting things about him while he was there.  Stuff that he wouldn't want to be revealed.  And I don't buy the crap that he doesn't read this blog, so that's all I'm going to say.  I don't want to throw my mother under the bus like that.  Suffice to say, she didn't think very highly of him back then either.

Greg McMurtry

October 29th, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^

I thought the place sucked.  Crappy pay, out of date equipment, corny company-man (woman) culture, and if you uttered a "shit" once in a while the whole building cringed as if they'd never heard that word before.  Oh, but if you were pregnant, you got a good parking space, so there's that.  The entire place seemed like a Stepford wives convention devoted to the great Valassis.  I happily left as soon as I could.

GoWings2008

October 29th, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^

that once the company was being run outside the family, it turned into something that everyone thought GFV wanted it to be, but it really wasn't.  My mom left before then, so it certainly could have changed a lot after she stopped working there.  The Valassis family was always nice to us, so I have no complaints about them personally...but I never worked there, so....

BornInA2

October 29th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^

Hey, I worked at Valassis in the summer of 1986. And they offered me a job when I graduated from college in 1991. It stands to reason that if I'd taken the job, I might be Athletic Director now, right? :)

petered0518

October 29th, 2014 at 1:21 PM ^

I really can't understand why anyone would be offended or upset at the publishing of Brandon's e-mails.

Given the highly prolific nature of Brandon's actions this year, we the public are already forming opinions of who he is as a person. That isn't always fair, we don't always get the full story and don't know the full explanation for why things happen the way they do. 

What better and more fair source for judgement of Brandon could we possibly have than direct communication between the man himself and concerned fans. Yes they paint him in a negative light, but there is no one to blame for that except the asshole who wrote them. There is no possible interpretation or media spin that can possibly twist this around, it is just a man and his words.

robpollard

October 29th, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^

Not in terms of talent (obviously), but in terms of salary & perks.

In the past, a top NFL coach not only would be competing at the highest level of the sport (a big draw for competitive guys) but also would get paid a factor of 2 or 3 times as much. Thus, a successful NFL coach leaving for college would be taking a big step down in not only competition but in money (plus, they'd have to recruit and suck up to 17-year olds). Who would do that? No one, by choice.

However, colleges have started to drop the pretense that coaches shouldn't get paid a *lot* more than any one else on campus, and salaries have soared. It used to be something notable if a college coach made $1 mil. Now, at a big program, you have to pay much more than that (e.g., Saban, who makes $6 mil, not counting perks like the boosters who just paid for his $3 mil house). Heck, Bret Bielema makes more than $5 mil a year! That's more than Jim Caldwell.

Thus, if a successful NFL coach wants to consider college, one barrier has fallen away. Past examples are fine, but aren't as relevant, b/c the environment has changed. Jim Harbaugh will make $6 mil-plus at his next coaching gig, whether it is the NY Jets or UM Wolverines. That's couch cushion money for guys like Stephen Ross.

Bosch

October 29th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^

I emailed DB in 2012, after the statement that PSDs were increasing. We went back and forth over a series of emails. I kept his last email to me as it contained the entire dialogue with the exception of my last response to him, which he didn't reply to. I certainly felt that the authenticity of WD's email was plausible based on DB's tone towards me...... I was called a bad fan for not wanting to keep up with OSU. He mocked the idea that I should question any of his decisions. And he pretty much dared me to turn in my tickets. This is not a guy anyone should want representing the University. His attitude is basically.... if you are not a significant donor, your opinion means nothing. I'll share the email if Brian thinks it adds value or credence to what has already been discussed.

UMQuadz05

October 29th, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^

I have no idea what this means, but Harbaugh is the first person I've ever seen who looks kinda cool wearing Google Glass.  Maybe the rage and the nerdiness are in perfect balance?

Also, I kind of put Saban in the "sucessful" coach who left the NFL.  His first year, they were 9-7; the second year they weren't great, yeah, but he was given Daunte Culpepper instead of Drew Brees as a QB.  Saban could probably make the playoffs with a half-decent roster, but after two years said "Eff this, I'm going back to college where I can rule everything."

Rufus X

October 29th, 2014 at 1:45 PM ^

I know he didn't exactly leave New England of his own accord to go to USC, but I think it's pretty clear that Harbaugh won't really be leaving SF completely on his own either (if that happens).  And I still think his trophy NoCal wife was a significant reason he wasn't interested in Michigan the first time around - and I don't know if he is still married to said trophy wife now, either.  

Also Charlie Weis vaguely fits into that category, and that's saying something because he doesn't usually fit into anything (sorry couldn't resist).

Any real candidate for a major college job like Michigan understands that college fans can be a little bit nutty, and that coach, driven by their ego, will always assume (correctly) that winning will cure all fan vitriol.  And since they are mostly egocentric people, they are going t turn that program around and the fans will buy them a $3M house in Tuscaloosa.  It's having an AD that watches film with them and throws them, unsupported, to the media wolves after the Morris incident that will keep good candidates away, not a passionate and angry fan base.

Also regarding Brandon's passive agressive emails being cause for dismissal.  Gary Moeller, a good mand and a pretty darn good coach, didn't really get fired for being drunk and disorderly... he got fired for being mediocre.  It was pulling the "Do you know who I am?!" card out in the back of a police car, and recording of that drunken rant getting to WJR that ended it for him.  Once the recording got on the airwaves it was over. Even that might have been overcome if not for several 4-loss (or 3 tie) seasons.  In other words, when your job performance is mediocre bordering bad, you shouldn't give your boss an excuse to fire you, be it snarky emails or a recorded drunken rampage.

Go Blue in MN

October 29th, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^

Despite only being the HC at Michigan for 5 years, Moeller trails only Carr (6) and Bo (5) in postseason wins with 4.  His overall winning % and conference winning % is almost exactly the same as Carr's.  What we wouldn't give now for a coach that wins 77.5% of Big 10 games!!

CoverZero

October 29th, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^

Regarding the "they are still out there making visits" comment by Brian regarding keeping Hoke and recruiting. 

I get his point, however Id like to add an analogy.   My current employment situation as a sales rep for a start up, will be ending in about a month when this company has decided to make sweeping changes to its business model, cut all sales people and trade shows and sell direct to the customers on the website.  So, I wont have a job with them any longer.  Until then, I am expected to do my job and make sales calls.  However it is extremely difficult plugging a product enthusiastically to a customer, when you know you will not be there in a month for them. 

I should/will bounce back and get another job, and those thoughts are honestly more consuming to me than pretending its "all good" to customers or potential customers when I visit with them.  I suspect the entire Michigan staff is feeling the same way with their recruiting efforts.  It takes some balls to be able to push the feelings of the inevitable back, and make promises to customers that you really may not be in a position to be able to keep.

JeepinBen

October 29th, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^

and good luck with the search. Where are you located and is it in technical sales? My company (automotive supplier) had a couple sales openings in the metro detroit area last I checked. You can look me up on twitter @jeepinben and I can send you listings.

DY

October 29th, 2014 at 3:03 PM ^

Plus, with recruits they probably know or assume this staff is at dead-man-walking-stage, which may not be the case with your prospective buyers. So unless the recruit really wants to be at Michigan for the sake of being at Michigan, both parties are going through the charade of the recruiting process.