bad timing

What will happen and when?

Brian,

Obviously, the central issue to our entire fanbase is what is going to happen to Dave Brandon and Brady Hoke, and if something is going to happen to either, when.  You have obviously posted at length about your opinions about what SHOULD happen, and I am excited to see part II of your coaching candidates series.  But, unless I missed it, I have not seen you post anything about what you believe WILL happen. 

Specifically, based upon where we stand now (2-4, 0-2) what is your expectation as to (1) whether Brandon will be removed, (2) whether Hoke will be fired, and (3) if you believe that either is gone, when.  I think that many of us would also be interested in your opinion  as to how the events that will transpire over the remaining 8 weeks of the regular season could impact that decision.  (For example, there is a thread on the board now asking what would happen if we win out).

I know that you are probably getting millions of emails on the topic, but I know that many of us would really be interested in knowing your opinions on this topic.

Thanks, as always, and despite everything, Go Blue!

-michgoblue

I just don't know. I'm only answering this because I get a lot of emails to this effect; usually if I can't answer something reasonably I just say so privately and that's it. But… yeah, I don't know.

One thing I've learned is that insider information is often colored by the desires of the source; slap one degree of separation between that source and you and then it seems really true and important. This is not so important when someone has a broken bone; it is vastly so when political infighting is involved. So I don't take a whole lot of stuff about Hoke staying seriously; I know it's popped up on premium message boards here and there. There's a faction amongst the old program alums who can't stand to be as flagrantly wrong as they were and will swear up and down that Hoke can be saved.

He can't. Anyone who watches his team knows that this is a disorganized mess and in year four that goes back to one guy and one guy only. There is no expectation this would get better, and in that light the successful Hoke years look like flukes born of disproportionate talent and flat-out luck, as Michigan's 2011 was.

I guess Michigan could run the table but any reasonable season projection gets you to 7-6 at best and that is a firing, if only because whoever the AD is will know that continuing with Hoke is going to be an inflection point on season ticket sales.

As far as Brandon, I do not know. I've read all there is to read and heard all there is to hear and what is clear is that here is some sort of serious support for the guy that centers around Stephen Ross and his dollars and drops off almost immediately after that. If this was a democracy he'd be booted in an 80-20 election; it is not.

I would have faith that the people around the president who have his ear because of dolla dolla bill y'all would eventually be able to come to this conclusion:

1. Someone else would be about as good at continuing the things who make the people in the AD support him
2. Anyone else would be less toxic to fans and especially students.

Even if you somehow believe that guy whose PR stunts will literally go in a textbook under what not to do is the best guy for the job, the next best guy for the job is 99% as capable and isn't loathed by half the Michigan fanbase. This flies in the face of our nation's CEO fetishization, but here it's undeniable.

Logic then demands I say that both guys will be gone by the end of the year, but logic ain't got nothing to do with it.

As to the timing, Hoke's not gone until after the OSU game. If he was going to get the axe immediately it would have been after the Minnesota game. Short of that happening again, he's got the rest of the year. Michigan may announce he's done before OSU, a la Earle Bruce; functionally he's your guy the rest of the year.

Brandon could go at any time. I hear that there are some meetings coming up in the next week that could be the impetus for his dismissal, but as long as Stephen Ross is backing the guy it's going to be pulling teeth.

[After THE JUMP: define risk in re: coaching candidates.]

bad photoshop

Stitt for Michigan for real?

Brian,

Do you really believe there is any chance Michigan will take a look at Bob Stitt or any other lower division coach?  I like the idea of finding the next Beilein, but I just don't see this having a chance unless you are hired as the next AD.

My daughter happens to be a freshman at Mines and I'll be going out to a game in a few weeks.  I've asked her to do some advance scouting but the only way she is going to a game is if Exo or BTS is performing at half-time.  I'm pretty sure she can tell you more about that Girl's Generation video with the Iowa helmet than about football, so I imagine any information from her would be useless anyway.  Is there anything specific I should be watching during the game? 

Best Regards,

Kevin

No, I don't expect Michigan looks at Stitt. Everyone filled the comments of the post containing him with assertions he was way too much of a risk, and it'll take Harbaugh-level stones to defy that perception. I wish they'd at least look at him. Yes, he's a risk. So is everyone else.

My expectation without an AD change is that Michigan ends up with an NFL coordinator, with Mullen going to Florida. I'm worried that NFL coordinator might be Teryl Austin or Harold Goodwin, both guys with a total of two years as a coordinator at any level to their name. But they have been in Ann Arbor so they are in the rumor mill. It will not be a Harbaugh. You can't throw a brick in Ann Arbor without hitting a well-informed guy who will swear up and down that Jim Harbaugh loathes Dave Brandon, and some of those well-informed guys played with him so they would know. (The man will not mind that you hit him with a brick. He will think it a welcome distraction.*)

As far as what a Mines game might tell you, I think the most accurate feel you could acquire would be envisioning what it would feel like to be a New Mexico Highlands or whatever fan going up against Stitt. Large chunks of my spread fandom come from the feeling of dread I get when Michigan tries to stop one. Do the things they do seem hard to stop? Are they asking one guy to do something in space a lot? How many times do they get something that seems easy and set up by the rest of their offense?

I approve of your daughter's K-Pop hobbies. Tell her that football is a grim thing and that she should concentrate on wicked dance moves if she is considering starting a blog.

*[DON'T THROW BRICKS AT PEOPLE WHO KNOW JIM HARBAUGH. MGoBlog is not organizing the Throw Bricks At Jim Harbaugh Acquaintances Rally.]

I mean, I get so many suggestions like this and you want to talk risk?

Pep Hamilton

Seems like an NFL coordinator that should have made your short list. Plays manball and seems to have the right mix of intelligence and incompetent stubbornness that might appeal to higher ups at Michigan. One degree removed from Harbaugh at Stanford, so he's basically a Michigan man.  No one will notice that he's basically just riding Andrew Luck's coattails. Probably has no desire to coach college, though.

Elliot

Hamilton had a couple years as OC at Stanford under David Shaw and then moved to the Colts; before that he was a position coach in the NFL and coached at Howard. Sure, I guess he's plausible in the same way all the NFL guys are plausible but if you're asking me which guy seems more attractive, I'm 100% Stitt.

Recruiting is a wash. Stitt's at least done it in his D-II engineering school way. Stitt is the man at his school, no question; Hamilton and everyone else is in this maelstrom of NFL data and QC coaches and everything being regimented everywhere. I want the guy working with fewer resources than Michigan can offer, not more, and I want the guy who currently successful college coaches workshop with instead of the guy who might just look good because of Andrew Luck.

Dan Mullen is far and away the #1 option after the Harbaugh Hail Marys; after that anyone you get is going to have question marks unless someone unexpected pops up. I just want an obviously good, smart coach. Stitt is that. Pep Hamilton doesn't have a tenth of his track record, nor does anyone in the NFL.

Hiring stuff. 

I know most people want Dave Brandon out and people want an AD with some experience.  So how hard would it be to hire an AD away from another school during the football season?

Thanks
Andy

I think it would take two weeks notice. Nothing about an AD's job means things will go off the rails if there's an interim in place during football season. The only reason for hesitation would be if that department was also about to fire their football coach; none of the guys Michigan is likely to look at are going to do that this year.

probably not.

Any chance we can get an mgoblog sponsored Chili Con Carnival with Dave Brandon as the guest of honor?  He can even have 1 free ticket to ride the pony.

Justin

NO (maybe)