Mailbag!

i don't get the "(yes, that herrmann") - related to jim? his son?

I understand the concern about MINOR RAGE being less novel this season, but shouldn't two of the weakest links of the offense (the line and the QB) improving even marginally help to mitigate this expected drop? I mean, I always like Threet, but the second half of least season he was clearly hurt and unable to make the throws he needed to make downfield. As such, PSU et al. figured out that the only way UM was going to move the ball was on the ground, and good defenses (MSU, OSU, and PSU) ate them up. Maybe I'm more optimistic, but I think the running game will be pretty efficient this season, and should still be able to put up good numbers against all but the stoutest Ds (which outside of OSU, I'm not sure this team will see).

"In the second half of the Penn State game Michigan got shut down when PSU adjusted to the MINOR RAGE, and the efficiency of the offense dipped. Michigan won't get that advantage of surprise this year."

Did you watch the game? Or, like, the season? What surprise did UM have coming into that game?

With the hopeful improvement both on the offensive line and consistency at QB, I think there is every reason to believe Michigan's running game will improve. If it doesn't Michigan is in trouble.

I thought it was evident that the sudden turn of events in the PSU game was largely caused by the injury to Threet and subsequent entrance of Nick Sheridan at QB.

Not to be that guy, but:

QB Play vs. PSU in the 1st half:

Steven Threet - 7/11 73 yards, O TD, 0 INT. 10 rushes, 47 yards.

Nick Sheridan - DNP

QB Play vs. PSU in the 2nd half:

Steven Threet - 2/2, 11 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. 4 rushes, 15 yards.

Nick Sheridan - 3/9, 5 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. 4 rushes, 1 yard.

IIRC correctly, Threet played phenomenally in the 1st half (in addition to Minor Rage) and UM had a 17-10 lead. Threet led the team 36 yards on 7 plays, but had the drive end after he was broken on a QB keeper.

Sheridan's drive then went:

3 plays, -10 yards.
3 plays, 5 yards.
3 plays, 5 yards (this was a Threet drive, when he tried to play injured)
3 plays, 6 yards
3 plays, -1 yard.
7 plays, 44 yards (in garbage time - McGuffie ran for 38 of the 44 yards)

Our offense stopped working because we went from excellent QB play to unimaginably awful QB play, and Minor was the only thing left.

In the second half of the Penn State game Michigan got shut down when PSU adjusted to the MINOR RAGE, and the efficiency of the offense dipped.

I think the adjustment was more "knock Threet out of the game" than anything...

are forgetting Brian's analysis of the PSU game that suggested that Penn State's DL was lining up poorly or over pursuing which was helping to create Minor Rage. So the adjustments were probably equal parts Threet and "don't run yourself out of the play".

Whether it was Penn State adjusting or Threet getting hurt, as long as Forcier/Robinson are healthy I can't see how the running game won't improve.

After about the second series of the year most teams had figured out Threet and Sheridan presented such a low risk to the defense on the read option that everyone was flowing to the running back. With a legitimate running option at QB that forces the edge defender to at least respect the QB keeping the ball up inside for a couple yards gain. Just that split second is the difference between a RB being met head on vs. having the chance to run through an arm tackle, or the difference between an arm tackle and making the corner.

We'll be a long ways from WVU '06-07, but I'm optimistic we'll see a big improvement.

in RR's previous 1.5 classes at Michigan he's brought in a large number of four stars with good offers. This year's parade of middling sorts is a natural consequence of going 3-9.

I am not as pessimistic and don't really know how much 3-9 has to do with it.

A couple thoughts: some of the lack of 4 stars could be related to the lack of top end players at positions of need?
For example, ILB and DT both appear to be very thin this year.

Additionally, recruiting for the hybrid DE/OLB quick position (I am probably alone in not really caring for the "deathbacker" name) we have targeted some tweeners who are good fits for the position but not big enough to be a highly rated DE, and not quite quick enough to be a highly rated OLB.

Further, we are still in it with respect to numerous 4 stars, especially D-back, and we are even still realistically in it with Seantrel Henderson (although we will have tough competition and no natural advantage with him). There will be coaching changes at the end of next season which may loosen a few lodged commits like Stokes last year, and RR has always seemed to pull a few long shots like Q Washington and Ricky Barnum, perhaps Henderson could be his great OL get this year.

Finally, these are early commits and some of the rankings could adjust upward without the current 4 stars dropping (that may or may not happen), giving this bumper crop of three stars an entirely different feel.

Ultimately in my opinion we have to look at whether we are losing out on talent that we reasonably could have expected to get with a better year - a speculative exercise, but so far, I am just not seeing that we are losing out on many guys who would otherwise consider M. That perception may not be correct, but I just dont have the feeling like there are many natural highly rated targets for us at many positions.

I think also clouding the perception is that the state of michigan itself has a pretty good talent pool this year and some of those players have either committed or expressed a lean to Sparty. This is an exceptional year for talent in the state and I expect Dantonio will struggle a little when he has to reach out too much beyond the borders, but certainly the fact that Dantonio has landed a few who M has offered can also create the pessimistic perception.

Michigan appears to now have one, maybe two legitimate QB's that can run and throw well. This will keep defenses off balance. And based on what I am hearing about the O line improving, experience from one full season in the new system, better QB more suited to the spread, experienced RB's, etc., barring key injuries and inexplicable fumble-itis, how can the offense NOT be orders of magnitude better?

It's easy to shut down the running game when on quaterback reads you know he's going to give it to the running back ninety percent of the time. That will change this year though because Forcier and Robinson can both keep it and get big chunks of yards as well.

At the start of the game, Penn State was in a nickel defense. Michigan promptly shoved the ball down PSU's throat to get to a 10-7 lead.

Penn State then adjusted to a 4-3 defense basically ignoring one of the Michigan receivers. Michigan continued to run well getting another TD to lead 17-7.

After that PSU made a personnel change at LB. The new LB was effective in slowing down the running game. At this point Threet also started throwing Taco Pants. This was with about 12 minutes left in the second quarter. Michigan promptly went 3 and out, 3 and out, and 3 and out to finish the half. The start of the second half produced a drive that garnered one first down. The next Michigan first down was on McGuffie's run at the end of the 4th quarter.

Penn State made adjustments early in the game that dared Michigan to throw the ball. Obviously PSU's decision was a good one as the Michigan offense collapsed.

Penn State loaded the box to stop the run and Michigan was not effective enough throwing the ball to offset that adjustment. This year could be a different story with the new QBs.

Penn State has been weak at DT for the last two years. 2007 was the hand it to Mike Hart for 3.5 yards year. The same sorry DTs are back this year. Michigan should again be able to run the ball up the middle. With any effective passing this will create problems for the PSU defense.