in percentages (or, better yet, in ± with a baseline of 5), how much is Scott Shafer's departure reflective of a poor fit as DC (and thus a tacit admission by Rodriguez that he was an unsatisfactory hire) vs. being indicative of the first the first flowering of potential panic by Rodriguez in the face of booster/fan/media displeasure (a la Auburn & Tony Franklin, as you've illustrated) on a scale that he was unprepared  for. Please discuss.

thanks,
Mike

Ninety percent "poor fit as DC." The Purdue game, which came when the team was 2-6 and had given up 35 points in three of the last four games, with the other game against Toledo, seemed like a breaking point. Michigan installed the 3-3-5, saw it backfire spectacularly, and from there the rift had formed and it was not repaired.

I put very little credence in the idea that coaches give half, or even a tenth, of a damn about what's said about them in the media or amongst fans. That's only relevant at the point where you get dragged into the athletic director's office and he says "some assistants go or you do." Michigan is a school that gave Tommy Amaker six years and would have let Lloyd Carr return for as long as he pleased no matter what happened against Ohio State: ultimatums did not happen.

Brian, you've probably already addressed this, but if 2005 was the Year of Infinite Pain, what was 2008?

I'm partial to the construction adopted by Auburn fans: 2008=DEATH.

Various questions on recruiting, all from one email:

How does the amount of verbal decommits stack up to other programs?  This has to be a somewhat common occurrence throughout the country?

How does the number of decommits this year compare to other years under Carr? Or is this more than UM is used to?

I realize every UM fan in the blogosphere overreacts & is shocked when a kid decommits, but don't you think the coaching staff rates each verbal commit differently?  When Newsome committed, I hope the coaching staff had him as a "soft" commit & were not shocked when he dropped us?  As opposed to say when a Thomas Gordon committed - they coaches would have to believe this is a rock solid commit.  I would think the coaches know what kids are not yet 100%, even thought they gave a verbal & still need some recruiting.

sadf

Don't some verbal commitments nowadays constitute a "leader in the clubhouse" for a lot of kids?

• Newsome: not at all. Michigan replaced Newsome with an equivalent prospect in Tate Forcier. (Newsome started the recruiting cycle ranked way high but has dropped steadily since; he didn't even start for Hargrave this year.)
• Fera: little. Michigan replaced Fera with a near-equivalent in Brendan Gibbons. Also: kickers are crapshoots.
• Barnes: little. Guy is a three-star who is probably going to end up at Purdue for lack of better offers. Michigan can get a dozen of those kinds of players.
• McNeal: considerable. McNeal is a top-100 talent to everyone and Michigan is not going to replace that in this class unless they snake oil some kid unexpectedly.
• Campbell: either not at all or enormously, depending on whether he recommits.

Overall: there's a ding from the McNeal departure and if Campbell doesn't rejoin the fold it'll be a huge disappointment; other than that the decommit hullaballoo is a lot of hype with little impact.