Based on Dr. Saturday's sadly extinct "Life on the Margins" series, this post breaks down the Michigan-Iowa game past the score and total yardage.

By total yardage and average drive performance, Michigan should have won this game, possibly comfortably. Without their starting quarterback for most of the second half, the Wolverines outgained Iowa by nearly 150 yards. However, it was the Michigan mistakes [ed: (tm)?] that killed the team.

Turnovers

On top of four turnovers - two by Tate Forcier, one each by Denard Robinson and Vincent Smith - the Wolverines also had a 38-yard field goal blocked and returned into positive territory for the Hawkeyes. That's a five-possession swing, more than enough to compensate for a two-score loss by the Wolverines.

Michigan's turnovers occurred at inopportune times as well. Vincent Smith fumbled in the redzone with the Wolverines down 14 points, and Tate Forcier offered up an interception around midfield on the following drive.

Those Damn Penalties

Drive-killing penalties (on themselves) or drive-extending penalties (graciously extended to the Hawkeyes) also played a major role. Though Iowa took a few penalties as well, Michigan's errors had a greater impact on the game:

• A facemask on the opening kick return of the game gives Iowa the ball in good field position at their own 38. Thanks to a Hawkeye penalty (see above), the drive stalls. IMPACT: minimal field position swing.
• The Wolverines had a 2nd and 3 until a Taylor Lewan personal foul pushed Michigan back 13 yards. Second and 16 led to a three-and-out. IMPACT: Loss of drive.
• JT Floyd breaks up an Iowa pass in the redzone, but interferes with Allen Reisner on the play. The play only nets the Hawkeyes two yards and a free down. They go on to score a touchdown on the drive (after Jordan Kovacs can't reel in an interception two plays later). IMPACT: four points for Iowa since they would have been kicking on fourth and ten without the unnecessary hold around the waist.
• Michigan has a 3rd and 5 at midfield, but a Stephen Schilling false start pushes it back to 3rd and 10. Michigan is forced to pass, and Denard Robinson throws an interception on the next play. IMPACT: partially responsible for turnover.
• Michigan is threatening with a 1st-and-10 on Iowa's 15. A false start penalty leads to three straight plays for loss or no gain, and Seth Broekhuizen's 38-yard field goal attempt is blocked. IMPACT: significant. Most likely three points, maybe more.
• After an Iowa score, Jeremy Gallon returns the ball to the 25. A block in the back brings it to the seven. Michigan is able to move the ball on the drive, but eventually punts to close out the half. IMPACT: 50/50 loss of TD. With the additional 19 yards Michigan would have been at the Iowa 25 and would have had an opportunity to go for it on fourth and one.
• With Michigan in serious catch-up mode down 21 in the third quarter, a false start penalty on their first play of a drive doesn't prevent them from scoring a touchdown. It does take a little more time off the clock. IMPACT: minimal.
• On the ensuing drive, JT Floyd pulls Adam Robinson down at the Michigan 40-yard line... by the facemask. The Hawkeyes are able to punch it in from the 25 in three plays, pushing their lead back to three scores. IMPACT: aided Hawkeye TD drive considerably.
• Michigan kicks the ball out of bounds TWICE in the fourth quarter, giving the Hawkeyes the ball on their own 40-yard line. The Hawkeyes score on both ensuing drives (one touchdown, one field goal). IMPACT: argh.

Volume and timing of penalties conspired to doom Michigan on the day. Maybe a really good team can overcome those errors, but...

But What Does It All Mean?

Like Rich Rodriguez has been saying for the better part of three years, this team isn't good enough to play poorly and win. If "playing poorly" can include running up over 500 yards of offense, it should be happy times in Ann Arbor when they do finally play well. What's exciting is that we've seen that earlier this year, when Michigan had zero turnovers against UConn and Notre Dame.

So, can a bye week cure all the ills that plague Michigan? Probably not. But it can cure some. The coaches did an excellent job preaching discipline in fall camp, and the Wolverines committed very few turnovers and penalties to start the year. If they can drill that again in this two-week period, improvement is sure to follow.

Couple that with the healthy return of the team's best quarterback (and I don't mean to bag on Forcier, because he was mostly good, but the team's backup quarterback was responsible for 2 turnovers), running back, offensive lineman, and defensive lineman, and the future is maybe not as bleak as it seemed after Saturday's game.

[Ed: This shouldn't be construed as a "Michigan deserved to win" post. Errors are errors, and Michigan's were severe. The field position difference is enormous: 11 yards over 11 drives is 121 yards, or almost all of Michigan's yardage advantage.

We should distinguish between talent breakdowns like Denard bombing away to Tyler Sash and plain stupid crap like Lewan's PF and the false starts or the kicker putting two(!) kickoffs out of bounds. The former's more likely to recur than the latter, and Michigan made a number of their mistakes because they were forced into them in ways that Michigan's defense could not replicate. Some of the extra mistakes are a real trend... but how many?

The next three weeks will tell.]