Laval Lost
In isolation, Laval Lucas-Perry's exit from the basketball program is not a big deal. Last year his offensive rating and effective field goal percentages checked in lower than notable bricklayer Stu Douglass. For perspective, this is what Douglass managed in 2010:
Stu Douglass … had an eFG of 42.7 and an offensive rating of 93.9 with a 15% usage rate. If Stu Douglass was a team, he would be Southern, a 5-25 SWAC team with the same overall eFG%. And those guys have to average 20% usage.
Being less efficient on offense than a guy who is in turn less efficient than a 5-25 SWAC team is quite a trick, and not one that indicates fans are going to spend draft night two years hence punching the wall because you went in the lottery. As departures go, LLP's is more Kelvin Grady than Ekpe Udoh.
Unfortunately, that attempt to dismiss the impact of the departure overlooks one key item: this basketball team actually needed Kelvin Grady. I keep on this like a broken record, but the team's best three-point shooter in 2009 other than the departed CJ Lee was none other than Grady. Whatever deficiencies he had as a player probably wouldn't have kept him off the floor in a year when no one could dribble or find the backboard in three tries. Next year, the basketball program will need Lucas-Perry and won't have him. It would be nice if Michigan's program was the sort that could sustain the loss of a guy like LLP without blinking. It's not.
So LLP's exit does not come in isolation. It comes in the midst of this:
Last year’s off-season was the epitome of stability and optimism. I spent the summer blogging about which national reporter had Michigan in his preseason top 15 and how Michigan was hot on the heels on Casey Prather and Trey Zeigler. This summer is the polar opposite — the news continues to revolve around a mass exodus of bodies out of Ann Arbor. One early entry. Three assistant coaching departures. One dismissal. Just four returning players who have played in a collegiate game.
Add in the crippling transfer of a player already on campus that leaves one position shockingly bereft of experience and talent plus an early entry into a draft that has no interest in the entrant and the basketball program is acquiring a distinct whiff of whatever horrible thing has plagued the football team since Rich Rodriguez took the job. We went into 2009 hoping the football program would mirror the basketball program; we go into 2010 fearing the reverse. Beilein tossed Rodriguez a rope and started pulling him out of the quicksand only to find himself waist-deep in turnover, facing down an almost assuredly lost year spent trying to get a bunch of underclassmen to stop running into each other.
UMHoops calls the above an "ominous sign" and it's hard to disagree. Momentum may be a hugely overrated concept when it comes to individual games, but on a program level it's not. Michigan had an opportunity to establish itself an up-and-coming program last year only to totally blow it on and off the field. Now instead of enduring an understandable bump in the road as the last of the Amaker players give way to Beilein's recruits, the bump is the anomalous NCAA year that establishes nothing. It's a dead cat bounce. Now we've got as much kick as Penn State does over the last decade. Hoorah.
I've previously said that I think Beilein's going to get a fifth year no matter what happens in 2010 and that year six probably requires no more than an upward trajectory from whatever filthy pile of used needles the team spends next offseason in. The dismissal of one role player doesn't change that, but it does add to the pile of foreboding tidings surrounding the team and how likely it ever is to get off the mat and become consistently decent. That was Beilein's promise: consistently decent or better.
If it's hard to see that happening at the moment, it's equally hard to see how a Michigan administration is going to find anyone more likely to pull that off. They aren't going to hire a coach with the tiniest hint of skeeze. Trying to be a basketball power without skeeze when you're an hour an a half away from school with the country's best performance-to-skeeze ratio is almost impossible. And firing the head of the NCAA's basketball ethics committee a couple years after self-administering a stern talking-to for the first time in the history of your football program is going to be a bridge too far for the administration unless they have no other choice. Beilein will be handed every opportunity to get things moving in the right direction.
You can put together a scenario where Smotrycz is Pittsnogle II and Hardaway is a diamond in the rough and a roster pushing 6'6" average height is a tough nut to crack defensively and there's an NIT bid next year and an NCAA bid in 2011 and Brundidge comes in and is Rodney Stuckey and etc etc etc. You'd have to be a little daft to expect it, though. Michigan basketball looks to be stuck in this amazing limbo where there's little expectation of success for the next three years and little recourse despite that.
But have I mentioned Carl Hagelin?
Bork? Bork.
Is there any chance that Grady can come back to the basketball team, or is he gone for good?
He re-joined the team as a practice squad member during the season last year, but if I recall correctly, he's not going to be on the squad this fall.
suit up to play for Michigan basketball. He told me that he's concentrating on football.
Too bad that Michigan could've used Grady last year with his ball handling and speed. He's also their best three point shooter which isn't saying much but still the best three point shooter nonethless. His assist rate and turnover rate are very good for a PG. I believe that he would have made an signficiant contribution as a SR PG which would be more important than a freshman trying to run PG.
I choose to focus on the only non-depressing part of the piece, that Carl Hagelin rules.
Michigan basketball looks to be stuck in this amazing limbo where there's little expectation of success for the next three years and little recourse despite that.
Oh well, it was fun being a basketball fan 2 seasons ago and in the beginning of last season.
In 2 years the practice facility will be done and in 3 (hopefully) Crisler will be upgraded to look like a 20 year old arena (instead of a 40 year old one). Then, we can start thinking about recruiting top talent and getting a better coach. That 2-4 year span should be enough for Beilein to make some NITs and maybe 1 NCAA tourney and then retire as a Michigan coach.
As long as football returns, I'm sadly OK with this.
we need to hire Mark Montgomery. If you can't beat the Izzone you hire someone from the same area code. He prepped at Southgate Aquinas and is from the area. What is there to lose if we get two years down the road and things are not working? Seems to me this is where we were with Tommy A. not to long ago.
I really want JB to work though.
That's who I wanted 3 years ago, but the Rosenberg's and Carty's of the world told me he would never come back to college coaching. Continuing their track record of suck.
I think you have the wrong Montgomery. Not the ex-Stanford NBA coach flame-out, but the current MSU assistant and former MSU player.
I can't see Mark Montgomery, the Sparty, coming to coach at Michigan... no matter what the circumstance.
of the poor variety.
But in my defense, I barely remember the Sparty assistant, and probably couldn't see him to come and coach here either. (I mean, if they had any thought of going that way in a Bo-Woody type deal, they would have shown more interest in Crean).
Is that Stuckey comparison meant to be a good thing? I assocate the name more with being an overrated disappointment than tough-nosed combo guard.
I'd give the edge to Duke in skeeze/success ratio, compared to MSU. It wasn't so long ago Zach Randolph was on campus.
It made sense for Beilein to go through a rebuild - you just didn't expect this timeline.
It's hard to be that disappointed with a 15th overall pick who puts up a 15.6 PER in his 3rd season while being asked to play the wrong position, unwise Billups trades not withstanding.
Randolph skeeze > Paulus/Jay Williams/Laettner skeeze (imho, given that I don't think any actual NCAA rules were violated with any of the preceeding players)
Has been just OK for a 15th pick. Not bad. Its more of the franchise expectations as Billups' heir.
Somebody hide the knives.
You'd have to be a little daft to expect it, though.
Yes, and that's what fandom does to us. It turns us daft in the face of certain disappointment. Better to be daft than to be cynically realistic, I say.
I will continue to see saviors in the unlikeliest of players and will continue unabated in my utter daftness.
I have faith that Douglass and Novak will perform better then last year(they have to right?). And that Morris will continue to figure out how to get the ball to players in positions to score...and possibly become a scoring threat himself. I see this team improving it's field goal percentage, 3pt field goal percentage, and turnover ratio. I might be too much of a basketball fan to be realistic, but if the 2008-09 team could do what it did with the (true)freshmen starters it had, I am going to hold out hope for the 2010-11 team to do positive things as well.
Read some Bacari Alexander tweets to feel better. That dude is pumped. At all times.
or call me a blindingly optimistic homer, but I still think that Beilein is a great coach and that he can cobble together an NCAA tourney team with the parts he has. I think one of the problems with last year's team was that they entered the year expecting to win (and with a top 25 ranking to boot). This year's team will know they'll have to fight for anything they can get.
basketball can turn around really fast. i'm not expecting it to, but i'm not discounting the possibility of a huge jump forward from one good recruiting class. let's see who joins brudidge before giving up hope.
I'm not ready to write off next season or JB's tenure at UM. Losing Manny was tough, but neither Kevlin Grady or LLP were going to be game-changers next year, and frankly I rather give the young guys some more playing time than waste it on a guy who clearly wasn't working out. And unlike football, basketball is the type of sport where being too young and too dumb to know better doesn't equate to a thrashing. Sure, UM isn't Kentucky with 5 first-round draft choices, but we also are not looking to win the NCAA tournament this year. This team has talent, and while it might not be top-25 talent right now, an NIT bid is not out of question given the raw players on the roster.
We suddenly have a glut of scholarships to give to any big name player who wants to come. I worried about that stupidly. Now we just have to get a big name player.
Hopefully bball can turn it back around and I think step one is to permanently bring back the old jerseys from the '89 team (I think) like LLP is pictured in above
As a big fan and too-ardent follower of the bball program, I have to admit that my hopes are low for the upcoming season. The next season (with Beilein at the helm or someone else), I think we'll be ok. The practice facility is a big deal and Beilein really has increased our profile among high level recruits (even if we aren't landing all the big ones).
I think the coaching staff is realistic about what might happen this season (Mike Jack didn't leave for a more happnin' town or better weather). It's not going to be pretty. As long as it's not ugly, however, JB will remain. Regardless of record, our program has improved and will continue to do so.
They are. Michael Bradley on WTKA today said he just spoke to Beilein, and coach said something to the effect that he didn't think he'd be starting over again in year 4. That sounds like a pretty realistic, if depressing take (Someone who knows John, buy the poor guy a cookie. I feel for him). However, I don't really trust much of what Michael Bradley has said since 1997....but there it is.
Doesnt Calipari start over every year? I mean he gets 1 year rent-a-freshman and he reloads the next season. The recruits just follow him... Just sayin...it takes good players and recruits to make a good basketball team. Belien didnt recruit Manny nor Sims...so who has he recruited? Novak and Douglas? and thats your superstars to hold the rope? these guys are gonna take us to the tourny? i dont think so.
I thought the main point of hiring Beilein was that he was not Calipari/Huggins/crooked.
the recruits who keep following him are kids who have no interest in their college, except as a year or two of NBA Prep. I would love to see the ACT scores of Calipari's top guns.
Feel free to ignore the rules of grammar along with JB's three best recruits, all of whom were solid 4*s - Morris, Metrics, and Brundidge.
Also, I doubt even Saint John Calipari himself could ever make the "tourny."
Unfortunately I am now 99% in the 'JB won't get it done at Michigan' camp.
This last season was obviously an absolute train wreck. I don't know the details of Udoh's departure but suffice it to say that might be the beginning of the end for Beilein's tenure in Ann Arbor. Everything that Udoh brings to the court were the most important items lacking (besides shooting of course) last season. With Udoh last season we win at least 5 more games in my opinion. Then there is a better chance that Manny opts to play his senior season than deciding that playing in Italy is a better option.
Couple this with the fact that Izzo just warmed so many hearts by deciding to stay in EL. Izzo has done just about as much to unravel this program in the last 15 years as did Chris Webber. He has been kicking our dicks in for years and now that he has turned down the best opportunity that he will ever get I can't see that changing in the next 15.
The fact that 4/5-star kids basically jump into Izzo's boat and JB has a helluva time getting even a 3-star to come visit one of the nation's best fucking Universities just shows me the putrid state of college bball these days. I for one am pretty much over all of it until I have to fill out my brackets in March.
go blue.
The Player Development Center will help with recruiting.
I just have to keep reminding myself that the best things in life are worth waiting for.
Udoh left out of allegiance to his AAU coach. It had nothing to do with Beilein. You're correct that he would have been extremely important for us. It was a big loss, but AAU has a grip on these kids.
As for Manny, let's just say that he didn't "opt" anything. I love the guy and think he's a hell of a player, but he was a problem for the program and a headache. So, while the program was willing to support his leap...let's just say that no one was crying over his departure.
As for Webb...the argument has been had a million times, but no one made UofM hire Ellerbie or Amaker - the Izzo makers. Webb's actions were bad, but let's not forget that Ed Martin spread that money all over...including East Lansing. Your final comment,
JB has a helluva time getting even a 3-star to come visit one of the nation's best fucking Universities
is, to be polite, vastly inaccurate. If you follow bball recruiting, you'll note that we have increased our profile greatly among top recruits. We aren't landing as many as we all want, but we have plenty of 4/5 stars on campus and in the mix. We do, however, refuse to recruit any kid who (personally or through an intermediary) requests money. That's very common among top 20 kids and it takes a rare program to get the kid without the money. We're not there yet.
Regardless of Udoh and Manny's reasons for leaving I feel that it's the coaches job to manage those two situation for the betterment of the program. Maybe even Izzo loses those two kids, maybe he doesn't. However if we go 10-22 this year those two departures will directly/indirectly be two big reasons why.
I understand that college bball is "as dirty as a dirt sandwich" and that's why I wrote that I'm basically over it. Whether 4/5 star kids visit campus for a free meal or not they aren't jumping in Michigan's boat at this point and I don't see that changing anytime soon and that is all that matters when you keep missing the tournament.
I will of course root for JB and this program but as a big picture guy that sees macro trends this program is really going to struggle for a while whether or not it's JB's fault.
Had Beilein persuaded Udoh to stay, last year would have been Udoh's senior year, so he could hardly be of any help during the 2010-11 season.
As for Harris, with him on the roster next year, would U-M be contending for the Big Ten title or making a deep tourney run? Probably not.
I have to believe what Sims said when Harris announced he wasn't coming back--team chemistry was a problem last season and should be much better next year. That might not translate into a lot of wins, but it should aid in the rebuildiing effort.
I think you're kinda missing the point...The staff didn't "lose" Manny; they moved on from Manny. I'm sure they wish him the best, but no one is upset that he's gone. As for Udoh - c'mon, Baylor? It was his AAU coach that made it happen. Some kids have more loyalty to AAU than anything. It's a big difference from my day, but it's life.
So...now you say that we get 4/5 star kids to visit for a "free meal" but a few minutes ago, we had to beg 3 stars? Time to get schooled - Smotrycz = 4* (#50 nationally), Brundidge = 4*, Morris = 4* (#10 PG nationally). We lost Trey Ziegler to his Dad...his Dad! If it weren't for that, he'd be a Wolverine. I'm not happy that our team is facing a tough season, but at least I'm looking at the reality of it. Our recruiting has improved greatly (although a big reason, Mike Jackson, has moved on), and the foundation of the program is strong. It just isn't going to happen as quickly as we'd all like. It makes no difference to me if you love Beilein or not, but no need to throw around phrases like "macro trends" when you really don't know what you're talking about.
again you are missing the point. from a macro level we will have a horrible year this year after supposedly turning the corner. All momentum has disappeared. Our rooting has been mediocre to bad so any chance that we had to catch MSU anytime soon is gone.
Keep bogging down in the details of Manny and Udoh's departure and let me know how that works out for you. I stand by my statement that their departures will be JB's undoing regardless of details and/or fault.
The business of college bball is now a dumpster fire lead by the Calipari's of the world and I'm not going to waste my time for the near future.
It takes 15 minutes to drive from Cameron Indoor Stadium to the Dean Smith Center. Coach K owned this little corner of the earth for a bit, but then Roy Williams came to town. Now they're both great powers, a la Micigan-Ohio State football.
My point: it is possible to have two powers in the same vicinity. I respect John B. a lot, but his recruiting has really suffered. Maybe, the practice facility will help. Maybe the trip to Europe will help. Dunno.
That said, we have to decide if he is the guy with a system that can succeed against the Big Ten hoops powers, particularly Michigan State. If he is, then we should stand by him and forgo yet another change. If not, well we shouldn't wait too long.
Here's another thought though: we are witnessing what it could be like to transition a program from one coaches style to another in two sports. It would appear this is a two stage process for John B. Rich forced it to be one stage. Hopefully that means we're emerging from change and moving forward in football.
I've been a huge critic of Beilein, and I want to be wrong, but it keeps looking more and more like the tourney team was an anamoly, much like Horton and Abraham's freshman year with Tommy Amaker (would have made the tourney had they not been banned from post season play). It was a perfect storm, but now, we're faced with the reality.
EDIT: For the sake of further clarification, my main problem with Beilein is his system. It flies in the face of my basketball philosophy (rebounding, defense, taking the ball inside, getting to the freethrow line).
Sometimes people can't differentiate loving the man, but hating the system. (And hate is too strong a word...but it fits the "hate the sinner" phrase). I like your basketball philosophy.
How is Anthony Wright your hero if that is your basketball philosophy? He chucked up a three most of times he touched the ball, didn't really rebound, play defense, take the ball inside or get to the free throw line.
Wow all this pessimism on a beautiful summer day all because LLP gets booted off the team. Color me not so sour. I mean, it's July, babes are in bikinis by the pool and the lake. A holiday weekend starts in 5-4-3-2.......
Look, here's the deal:
Best back to back recruiting classes in 10 years. With another nice class shaping up.
Program is in better shape now, than it was after the 2006-7 when a large core of senior players finished their eligibility and JB was left to coach the remnants the following season during his first year on campus. So, while Manny and Peedi are gone, the program is in better shape to move forward immediately than it was when the 06/07 senior core left.
This will be, by far, the tallest team JB will have had. He'll have a lot more options to use, he had no options when things havent been working in the past. He can put a very versatile roster on the floor, albeit unproven.
Metrics is a much better prospect than Pittsnogle ever was. He is more in the Heyward mode from Butler, and one of the best recruits to come to Michigan in the last decade. He will have an instant impact and score in double figures.
We'll get 40 points per game combined from Novak, Douglass, Morris and Metrics. And, another 25 from Morgan, McLimas, Vogrit, Hardaway and Horford. Toss in the staple JB defense and we're in just about every ballgame.
Can Metrics, Vogrit, McClimas, Hardaway and three holdover guards shot the trey better than Michigan has so far under JB? That's the question. If they do, then you're going to be pleasantly surprised.
I think the team is going to be fine next year, they're going to give it a run. I think their youth will betray them and we'll have ugly moments. But, we're also going to have moments where it looks like the best outfit JB has put on the floor at Michigan. I dont see why this team cant live on the tournament bubble they way it did 2 seasons ago. Not sure if they'll be experienced enough to end up on the correct side when its all said and done, however. ButI really, really, really love the potential for something really good the following season.
But, man, I dont see any reason to stress out about this. Not in July when its gorgeous outside. I think we'll be alright. We might even live.
Are we just not allowed optimism any more? Does every thing have to portend to bad tidings? Can we enjoy summer without writing off a season that doesnt even begin for another 4.5 months?
This. When I see something like:
"Michigan basketball looks to be stuck in this amazing limbo where there's little expectation of success for the next three years and little recourse despite that."
I question Brian's logic more than a little. LLP leaving and a bad season = little hope for THREE YEARS? Give me a break. The recruting is good-not-great with a lot of reason to be optimistic moving forward. Brundidge and the possibilities next year are reason enough to think this is nonsense.
Put away the shotgun and accept that a down year is coming. We're not doomed for three years because a guy who was generally terrible and a few assistants left.
The team will probably only win ten games this year, yes. But in 2011-2012, they'll return a bunch of experienced players and add Brundidge (and maybe another top 100 player). The video I've seen of Smotrycz makes me think that he can be a pretty good weapon in Beilein's system...Anyway, a lot of us cut Rodriguez a lot of slack b/c the cupboard was relatively bare when he got to U of M and b/c he didn't have players that fit his system. Beilein had it even worse in some ways, but things are getting better. This year's recruiting class is a nice one and the practice facility is being built.
Things are going to get better. Beilein hasn't forgotten how to coach. It's just going to take time. And yes, this year will be ugly.
EDIT: Jamiemac's post wasn't up when I wrote mine. So, like, what he said...
The team will probably only win ten games this year, yes. But in 2011-2012, they'll return a bunch of experienced players and add Brundidge (and maybe another top 100 player).This. Can we wait until a 6'4" underclassman that was a 2* recruit isn't starting at PF before we write off the Beilein era?
I understand the sentiment of the post (2009-10 was an effing waste) and I agree that the short-term trajectory is downward, but most of the points in this post were just as relevant two days ago. I mean, even with the departure of Manny and Peedi, LLP was not going to be Demetrius Calip.
If the opinion of some in April was "we're in for a tough 2010-11, but 'in Beilein we trust,'" that opinion should not have changed. It's essentially the same "scrappy", "hard-nosed", "gym rat", "couldn't touch the square with a step ladder" team it was always going to be, along with the same hope (or lack thereof) for the future.
I, for one, will wait for Brundidge's decommit post before I panic.
Over time, he should be able to recruit at least as well as he did at WV, and put together teams that on average are as good as or slightly better than his WV teams. This will probably be enough to stick around. However, this assumes that he can put as much energy into the job as he did at WV, and it's not a given that he or anyone else will be able to indefinitely maintain a constant level of energy in such a demanding and stressful job.
I agree that he will not be fired after this year as long as the team shows that they are learning the system and improves as the year goes on.
Too pessimistic, this outlook should be reserved for the Iowa basketball team. Hard for me to feel either pessimistic or optimistic with so many of the expected contributors being young and unproven.
I think the foundation has been laid and it is a mere question of time until Belien's superior coaching ability manifests itself again.
This is not right,I know Laval Lucas - Perry and he is a nice gentelman.What he did was probally wrong but.We have to remeber two things,One is America love's second chances,another one is When Manny Harris got kicked off,But it wasent a big punishment.For then i say Laval should be back on the team.
Bad Grammar.
Manny is attempting Probally this season.
Helluva post, whatever it is you are attempting to say:)
I have to say, while I realize that his isn't "about" LLP, I wonder why the departure of a marginal contributor is engendering this sort of self-mutilation. I' sad for Perry that he blew his chance, and assume Beilein's decision is the right one, but this really should have no impact on what you think next year looks like. Two days ago, next season was dependent on how much Novak and Douglass mature, and how much the true and redshirt freshmen can contribute immediately. Perry's presence or lack thereof doesn't change this.
Darius Morris must remain healthy for this team to compete. If not, who can run the team? I think Stu will be ok 8-10 minutes a night, although I prefer Stu to look first to score, this appears to be a team devoid of ballhandlers and distributors.
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