Laval Lost

Is there any chance that Grady can come back to the basketball team, or is he gone for good?

I choose to focus on the only non-depressing part of the piece, that Carl Hagelin rules.

Michigan basketball looks to be stuck in this amazing limbo where there's little expectation of success for the next three years and little recourse despite that.

Oh well, it was fun being a basketball fan 2 seasons ago and in the beginning of last season.

In 2 years the practice facility will be done and in 3 (hopefully) Crisler will be upgraded to look like a 20 year old arena (instead of a 40 year old one). Then, we can start thinking about recruiting top talent and getting a better coach. That 2-4 year span should be enough for Beilein to make some NITs and maybe 1 NCAA tourney and then retire as a Michigan coach.

As long as football returns, I'm sadly OK with this.

we need to hire Mark Montgomery. If you can't beat the Izzone you hire someone from the same area code. He prepped at Southgate Aquinas and is from the area. What is there to lose if we get two years down the road and things are not working? Seems to me this is where we were with Tommy A. not to long ago.

I really want JB to work though.

Is that Stuckey comparison meant to be a good thing?  I assocate the name more with being an overrated disappointment than tough-nosed combo guard.

I'd give the edge to Duke in skeeze/success ratio, compared to MSU.  It wasn't so long ago Zach Randolph was on campus.

It made sense for Beilein to go through a rebuild - you just didn't expect this timeline.

Somebody hide the knives.

You'd have to be a little daft to expect it, though.

Yes, and that's what fandom does to us.  It turns us daft in the face of certain disappointment.  Better to be daft than to be cynically realistic, I say.

I will continue to see saviors in the unlikeliest of players and will continue unabated in my utter daftness.

Read some Bacari Alexander tweets to feel better. That dude is pumped. At all times.

or call me a blindingly optimistic homer, but I still think that Beilein is a great coach and that he can cobble together an NCAA tourney team with the parts he has.  I think one of the problems with last year's team was that they entered the year expecting to win (and with a top 25 ranking to boot).  This year's team will know they'll have to fight for anything they can get.

basketball can turn around really fast.  i'm not expecting it to, but i'm not discounting the possibility of a huge jump forward from one good recruiting class.  let's see who joins brudidge before giving up hope.

I'm not ready to write off next season or JB's tenure at UM.  Losing Manny was tough, but neither Kevlin Grady or LLP were going to be game-changers next year, and frankly I rather give the young guys some more playing time than waste it on a guy who clearly wasn't working out.  And unlike football, basketball is the type of sport where being too young and too dumb to know better doesn't equate to a thrashing.  Sure, UM isn't Kentucky with 5 first-round draft choices, but we also are not looking to win the NCAA tournament this year.  This team has talent, and while it might not be top-25 talent right now, an NIT bid is not out of question given the raw players on the roster. 

Hopefully bball can turn it back around and I think step one is to permanently bring back the old jerseys from the '89 team (I think) like LLP is pictured in above

As a big fan and too-ardent follower of the bball program, I have to admit that my hopes are low for the upcoming season.  The next season (with Beilein at the helm or someone else), I think we'll be ok.  The practice facility is a big deal and Beilein really has increased our profile among high level recruits (even if we aren't landing all the big ones).

I think the coaching staff is realistic about what might happen this season (Mike Jack didn't leave for a more happnin' town or better weather).  It's not going to be pretty.  As long as it's not ugly, however, JB will remain.  Regardless of record, our program has improved and will continue to do so.

Unfortunately I am now 99% in the 'JB won't get it done at Michigan'

camp.

This last season was obviously an absolute train wreck. I don't know the details of Udoh's departure but suffice it to say that might be the beginning of the end for Beilein's tenure in Ann Arbor. Everything that Udoh brings to the court were the most important items lacking (besides shooting of course) last season. With Udoh last season we win at least 5 more games in my opinion. Then there is a better chance that Manny opts to play his senior season than deciding that playing in Italy is a better option.

Couple this with the fact that Izzo just warmed so many hearts by deciding to stay in EL. Izzo has done just about as much to unravel this program in the last 15 years as did Chris Webber. He has been kicking our dicks in for years and now that he has turned down the best opportunity that he will ever get I can't see that changing in the next 15.

The fact that 4/5-star kids basically jump into Izzo's boat and JB has a helluva time getting even a 3-star to come visit one of the nation's best fucking Universities just shows me the putrid state of college bball these days. I for one am pretty much over all of it until I have to fill out my brackets in March.

go blue.

I've been a huge critic of Beilein, and I want to be wrong, but it keeps looking more and more like the tourney team was an anamoly, much like Horton and Abraham's freshman year with Tommy Amaker (would have made the tourney had they not been banned from post season play). It was a perfect storm, but now, we're faced with the reality.

EDIT: For the sake of further clarification, my main problem with Beilein is his system. It flies in the face of my basketball philosophy (rebounding, defense, taking the ball inside, getting to the freethrow line).

Wow all this pessimism on a beautiful summer day all because LLP gets booted off the team. Color me not so sour. I mean, it's July, babes are in bikinis by the pool and the lake. A holiday weekend starts in 5-4-3-2.......

Look, here's the deal:

Best back to back recruiting classes in 10 years. With another nice class shaping up.

Program is in better shape now, than it was after the 2006-7 when a large core of senior players finished their eligibility and JB was left to coach the remnants the following season during his first year on campus. So, while Manny and Peedi are gone, the program is in better shape to move forward immediately than it was when the 06/07 senior core left.

This will be, by far, the tallest team JB will have had. He'll have a lot more options to use, he had no options when things havent been working in the past. He can put a very versatile roster on the floor, albeit unproven.

Metrics is a much better prospect than Pittsnogle ever was. He is more in the Heyward mode from Butler, and one of the best recruits to come to Michigan in the last decade. He will have an instant impact and score in double figures.

We'll get 40 points per game combined from Novak, Douglass, Morris and Metrics. And, another 25 from Morgan, McLimas, Vogrit, Hardaway and Horford. Toss in the staple JB defense and we're in just about every ballgame.

Can Metrics, Vogrit, McClimas, Hardaway and three holdover guards shot the trey better than Michigan has so far under JB? That's the question. If they do, then you're going to be pleasantly surprised.

I think the team is going to be fine next year, they're going to give it a run. I think their youth will betray them and we'll have ugly moments. But, we're also going to have moments where it looks like the best outfit JB has put on the floor at Michigan. I dont see why this team cant live on the tournament bubble they way it did 2 seasons ago. Not sure if they'll be experienced enough to end up on the correct side when its all said and done, however. ButI really, really, really love the potential for something really good the following season.

But, man, I dont see any reason to stress out about this. Not in July when its gorgeous outside. I think we'll be alright. We might even live.

Are we just not allowed optimism any more? Does every thing have to portend to bad tidings?  Can we enjoy summer without writing off a season that doesnt even begin for another 4.5 months?

The team will probably only win ten games this year, yes.  But in 2011-2012, they'll return a bunch of experienced players and add Brundidge (and maybe another top 100 player).  The video I've seen of Smotrycz makes me think that he can be a pretty good weapon in Beilein's system...Anyway, a lot of us cut Rodriguez a lot of slack b/c the cupboard was relatively bare when he got to U of M and b/c he didn't have players that fit his system.  Beilein had it even worse in some ways, but things are getting better.  This year's recruiting class is a nice one and the practice facility is being built. 

Things are going to get better.  Beilein hasn't forgotten how to coach.  It's just going to take time.  And yes, this year will be ugly. 

EDIT:  Jamiemac's post wasn't up when I wrote mine.  So, like, what he said...

I understand the sentiment of the post (2009-10 was an effing waste) and I agree that the short-term trajectory is downward, but most of the points in this post were just as relevant two days ago.  I mean, even with the departure of Manny and Peedi, LLP was not going to be Demetrius Calip.

If the opinion of some in April was "we're in for a tough 2010-11, but 'in Beilein we trust,'" that opinion should not have changed.  It's essentially the same "scrappy", "hard-nosed", "gym rat", "couldn't touch the square with a step ladder" team it was always going to be, along with the same hope (or lack thereof) for the future.

I, for one, will wait for Brundidge's decommit post before I panic.

Over time, he should be able to recruit at least as well as he did at WV, and put together teams that on average are as good as or slightly better than his WV teams. This will probably be enough to stick around. However, this assumes that he can put as much energy into the job as he did at WV, and it's not a given that he or anyone else will be able to indefinitely maintain a constant level of energy in such a demanding and stressful job.

I agree that he will not be fired after this year as long as the team shows that they are learning the system and improves as the year goes on.  

Too pessimistic, this outlook should be reserved for  the Iowa basketball team.  Hard for me to feel either pessimistic or optimistic with so many of the expected contributors being young and unproven.

I think the foundation has been laid and it is a mere question of time until Belien's superior coaching ability manifests itself again.

I have to say, while I realize that his isn't "about" LLP, I wonder why the departure of a marginal contributor is engendering this sort of self-mutilation. I' sad for Perry that he blew his chance, and assume Beilein's decision is the right one, but this really should have no impact on what you think next year looks like. Two days ago, next season was dependent on how much Novak and Douglass mature, and how much the true and redshirt freshmen can contribute immediately. Perry's presence or lack thereof doesn't change this.