The Last Best Hope For 2005/06
With Michigan in the Not Interesting (To Blog About) Tournament and the long sports desert that is the summer rapidly approaching, it seems like a good idea to make up for the shameful lack of attention I've paid the hockey team in recent weeks.
So: with their sweep of Ferris State in the second round of the CCHA playoffs, Michigan is in the tournament and hoping to get shipped east. The worst result I can get after excessive futzing with USCHO's Pairwise Predictor tool is Michigan in a three-way tie for 12th, but Michigan wins the tiebreakers by taking the comparisons against UNH and UNO. The top 16 teams in the pairwise rankings get in minus whatever number of non-qualifying autobids there are -- usually two or three. It would take two Michigan losses and an unprecedented string of upsets for Michigan to be knocked out at this point.
Michigan's locked into a two or three seed; the only things left to determine are the where and who. For your edification, a trip through the NCAA seeding process...
...in which all higher-seeded teams win.
(Bold == Autobid)
Three of the four hosts this year -- guaranteed to play at 'home' -- made the tourney: North Dakota, Wisconsin, and BU. So UW and BU are at home. Clearly the logical places for Minnesota and Miami are Grand Forks and Albany, respectively.
#1 Minnesota vs. #16 Bemidji State
#8 Harvard vs. #9 Michigan
#2 Wisconsin vs. #15 Dartmouth
#7 Cornell vs. #10 Maine
#3 BU vs. #14 Holy Cross
#6 North Dakota vs. #11 CC
#4 Miami vs. #13 UNO
#5 MSU vs. #12 UNH
Problems in bold: two intraconference first round matchups and North Dakota is not at home. Fixing the latter is fairly simple: the logical thing to do is to swap Harvard and North Dakota, officially giving Michigan a Bracket Of Death in which they face North Dakota at home followed by overall #1 seed Minnesota should they survive the first trial by ordeal. Swapping UNO out is a bit murkier, as I'd figure they'd leave Holy Cross as close to Boston as possible... they'd probably swap with Dartmouth. Final bracket, with seeds massaged down to the 1-4 scale the NCAA uses:
#1 Minnesota vs. #4 Bemidji State
#2 North Dakota vs. #3 Michigan
#1 Wisconsin vs. #4 UNO
#2 Cornell vs. #3 Maine
#1 BU vs. #4 Holy Cross
#2 Harvard vs. #3 CC
#1 Miami vs. #4 Dartmouth
#2 MSU vs. #3 UNH
Obviously, that's the worst possible bracket Michigan can find themselves in. I'll spare you the tedious details, but suffice it to say that the following bracket, which Michigan reaches under the same parameters as "chalk" but with an improbable run through MSU and Miami to win the CCHA tournament, is much preferable:
#1 UW vs. #4 UNO
#2 Michigan vs. #3 Maine
Still not exactly a field of frickin' poppies, but at least the defacto home game comes in the second round against a team that Michigan played fairly straight up earlier in the year (and thumped in the tournament a year ago).
Of course,
But, hey, at least they made it.
And there's always next year. Packer487 has compiled stats for the dizzying array of recruits Michigan has committed over the next three years.
So: with their sweep of Ferris State in the second round of the CCHA playoffs, Michigan is in the tournament and hoping to get shipped east. The worst result I can get after excessive futzing with USCHO's Pairwise Predictor tool is Michigan in a three-way tie for 12th, but Michigan wins the tiebreakers by taking the comparisons against UNH and UNO. The top 16 teams in the pairwise rankings get in minus whatever number of non-qualifying autobids there are -- usually two or three. It would take two Michigan losses and an unprecedented string of upsets for Michigan to be knocked out at this point.
Michigan's locked into a two or three seed; the only things left to determine are the where and who. For your edification, a trip through the NCAA seeding process...
Chalk Scenario
...in which all higher-seeded teams win.
(Bold == Autobid)
| 1 | Minnesota (Mn) | 29 | .5908* | |
| 2 | Wisconsin (Wi) | 28 | .5782* | |
| 3 | Boston University (BU) | 27 | .5695 | |
| 4 | Miami (Mm) | 26 | .5688* | |
| 5 | Michigan State (MS) | 25 | .5643 | |
| 6t | North Dakota (ND) | 23 | .5523 | |
| 6t | Cornell (Cr) | 23 | .5503 | |
| 8 | Harvard (Ha) | 21 | .5488 | |
| 9 | Michigan (Mi) | 20 | .5475 | |
| 10 | Maine (Me) | 19 | .5477 | |
| 11t | Colorado College (CC) | 18 | .5435 | |
| 11t | New Hampshire (NH) | 18 | .5391 | |
| 11t | Nebraska-Omaha (NO) | 18 | .5355 | |
| 11t | Holy Cross (HC) | 18 | .5353* | |
| 16 | Dartmouth (Da) | 15 | .5446 | |
| 27 | Bemidji State (BS) | 3 | .4943 |
Three of the four hosts this year -- guaranteed to play at 'home' -- made the tourney: North Dakota, Wisconsin, and BU. So UW and BU are at home. Clearly the logical places for Minnesota and Miami are Grand Forks and Albany, respectively.
Grand Forks
#1 Minnesota vs. #16 Bemidji State
#8 Harvard vs. #9 Michigan
Green Bay
#2 Wisconsin vs. #15 Dartmouth
#7 Cornell vs. #10 Maine
Worchester
#3 BU vs. #14 Holy Cross
#6 North Dakota vs. #11 CC
Albany
#4 Miami vs. #13 UNO
#5 MSU vs. #12 UNH
Problems in bold: two intraconference first round matchups and North Dakota is not at home. Fixing the latter is fairly simple: the logical thing to do is to swap Harvard and North Dakota, officially giving Michigan a Bracket Of Death in which they face North Dakota at home followed by overall #1 seed Minnesota should they survive the first trial by ordeal. Swapping UNO out is a bit murkier, as I'd figure they'd leave Holy Cross as close to Boston as possible... they'd probably swap with Dartmouth. Final bracket, with seeds massaged down to the 1-4 scale the NCAA uses:
Grand Forks
#1 Minnesota vs. #4 Bemidji State
#2 North Dakota vs. #3 Michigan
Milwaukee
#1 Wisconsin vs. #4 UNO
#2 Cornell vs. #3 Maine
Worchester
#1 BU vs. #4 Holy Cross
#2 Harvard vs. #3 CC
Albany
#1 Miami vs. #4 Dartmouth
#2 MSU vs. #3 UNH
Obviously, that's the worst possible bracket Michigan can find themselves in. I'll spare you the tedious details, but suffice it to say that the following bracket, which Michigan reaches under the same parameters as "chalk" but with an improbable run through MSU and Miami to win the CCHA tournament, is much preferable:
Green Bay
#1 UW vs. #4 UNO
#2 Michigan vs. #3 Maine
Still not exactly a field of frickin' poppies, but at least the defacto home game comes in the second round against a team that Michigan played fairly straight up earlier in the year (and thumped in the tournament a year ago).
Of course,
- the chances of chalk occurring are vanishingly small and
- given the volatile nature of your stupid, stupid
mindspairwise the slightest deviation from said chalk will cause totally unpredictable swings,
But, hey, at least they made it.
And there's always next year. Packer487 has compiled stats for the dizzying array of recruits Michigan has committed over the next three years.