Jimmystats: Comparing Stars of the 2016 Class Comment Count

Seth

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Last week I put up an attempt at re-grading all the Michigan players dating back to whenever recruiting information can be divined. Somebody asked if I could show the constituent STAR ratings of Michigan's commits and targets.

Answer is here you go. Michigan's 2016 class so far, organized by STAR rating.

Again, this is a bit more precise ranking system than saying a guy is a 4-star to one site and a 5-star to another—it attempts to standardize the actual ratings so, for example a 5.7 (high 3-star) and a 70 (low 3-star) on ESPN won't look like the same thing. More details at this post.

Name Pos Hgt. Wgt. State STARs Rivals Scout Espn 247
Ben Bredeson OT 6'4 280 WI 4.38 4.50 4.50 4.00 4.50
Brandon Peters QB 6'4 195 IN 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.00 4.50
Kareem Walker RB 6'0 208 NJ 4.19 4.00 4.75 4.00 4.00
David Long CB 6'0 170 CA 4.19 4.25 4.25 4.00 4.25
Michael Onwenu OG 6'3 367 MI 4.13 4.25 4.00 4.00 4.25
Dylan Crawford WR 6'1 175 CA 4.06 4.25 4.00 4.00 4.00
Ahmir Mitchell FS 6'3 203 NJ 4.06 4.25 4.00 4.00 4.00
Devin Bush MLB 5'11 224 FL 3.88 4.00 3.75 4.00 3.75
Brad Hawkins SS 6'2 195 NJ 3.81 3.75 4.00 4.00 3.50
Carlo Kemp SDE 6'3 250 CO 3.75 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.75
Ron Johnson WDE 6'3 221 NJ 3.75 3.75 3.25 4.00 4.00
Chris Evans RB 5'11 181 IN 3.63 3.50 4.00 3.00 4.00
Eddie McDoom SL 6'1 170 FL 3.63 3.50 3.25 4.00 3.75
Nick Eubanks TE 6'6 208 FL 3.63 3.75 3.00 3.75 4.00
Elysee Mbem-Bosse MLB 6'2 228 GA 3.50 3.75 3.25 3.50 3.50
Khaleke Hudson Nk 5'11 204 PA 3.44 3.25 3.50 3.00 4.00
Stephen Spanellis OG 6'5 330 MD 3.19 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.25
Joshua Uche WDE 6'1 217 FL 3.19 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.25
Josh Metellus SS 6'0 187 FL 3.19 3.25 2.75 3.50 3.25
Kingston Davis FB 6'0 242 AL 3.13 3.50 2.75 3.00 3.25
Sean McKeon TE 6'4 230 MA 3.13 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.25
Mike Dwumfour NT 6'2 282 NJ 3.13 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25
Devin Gil WLB 6'0 204 FL 3.06 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.00
Dytarious Johnson MLB 5'11 215 AL 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.75 3.25

And here's the guys on the board, plus Nate Johnson since he still technically has a signing day announcement:

Name Pos Hgt. Wgt. State STARs Rivals Scout Espn 247*
Rashan Gary DL 6'5 290 NJ 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Devin Asiasi TE 6'5 253 CA 4.31 4.75 4.50 4.00 4.00
Boss Tagaloa NT 6'3 303 CA 4.13 4.25 4.25 4.00 4.00
LaVert Hill CB 5'11 173 MI 4.00 4.00 4.25 3.50 4.25
Connor Murphy SDE 6'7 255 AZ 3.81 4.00 4.00 3.25 4.00
Vic Viramontes QB 6'0 214 CA 3.56 3.50 3.50 3.25 4.00
Isaiah Simmons FS 6'3 212 KS 3.56 3.50 3.25 3.50 4.00
Nate Johnson SL 5'11 174 TN 3.31 3.25 3.25 2.75 4.00
Alaric Jackson OT 6'7 285 MI 3.25 3.00 3.25 3.00 3.75
Quinn Nordin K 6'2 200 MI 3.19 3.00 3.75 3.00 3.00

I highlighted a handful that appeared to disagree with the consensus. Since a lot of those were ESPN I'm taking another look at how I weighted ESPN.

Anything odd other than ESPN rankings? Let's go over the disagreements that were >.5 off the consensus.

Kareem Walker on Scout: Thanks helpful reader. Walker was a 5-star for a long time but his camp outings showed some of the finding a hole problems that plagued past Michigan 5-star running backs. He didn't take a tumble, but most sites dropped him from the low 5-star and #1 back to something closer to where De'Veon Smith wound up. Scout dropped him to the 3rd RB but let him keep his 5th star.

Khaleke Hudson on 247: Did you watch his highlight film? I think this is a classic example of a late-riser. If Penn State was telling him not to commit last summer then I can see why sites had him a low 3-star. Once you're out of the Top 300 or 250 or whatever that site is ranking, I think there's less chance for movement. There's a lot of players to rank and forget. Rivals had him a middling 3-star until their final rankings last week.

Kingston Davis on Scout: They're ranking him as a running back, placing him 95th among them. The rest of the sites appear to have ranked him as a fullback.

Devin Asiasi: At first glance it looks like Rivals is the outlier, but I think that's a fault of my ESPN problem. Really the outlier is 247 as you can see on their own composite score:
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Everyone else thinks he's a Top 50-ish and the 3rd or 4th TE in the country. 247 has him behind both of the OSU commits and the rare NJ player Michigan didn't get.

Quinn Nordin to Scout: Scout is the only site that doesn't keep kicker recruits artificially in the low-3's because they're kickers. I guess because #collegekickers.

Comments

GoBlue

February 2nd, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^

This is pretty cool to check out.  One question:  How did you decide which were outliers?

Kingston Davis, for example, has readings of : 2.75  -  3.0  -  3.25  -  3.5    I'm not sure why the 2.75 is more of an outlier than the 3.5.

Same with Nate Johnson.  Two 3.25s, a 2.75 (only .5 below those two) and a 4.0 (.75 above those two.)  It would seem that if there is an outlier there, it is the 4.0, not the 2.75.  (The 4.0 is 0.69 above the average. The 2.75 is 0.56 below.)

Perhaps this all has something to do with you standardization formula which shifted those ratings a bit.  Regardless, thanks for all of the effort!

Seth

February 2nd, 2016 at 2:54 PM ^

I'm still perfecting my standardizing formula but 5.7 to Rivals = high 3-star = 3.50. That's one rating that most of the sites seem to be pretty solid on.

Since the sites keep Fullbacks generally low in stars I didn't think it that big a deal to parse between which ones rank the #2 fullback an average 3-star or a high one. Scout treating him as an RB seemed like a bigger outlier.

Judge Smails

February 2nd, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^

Stating the obvious, I realize, but that second chart really drives home the importance of tomorrow: Gary, as well as three consensus four stars are legit possibilities to turn a very good class to great.

Hotel Putingrad

February 2nd, 2016 at 3:22 PM ^

it really makes it hard to wait for next season. I'm excited for everyone, of course, but my personal favorites I expect the biggest things from are Khaleke Hudson, Ahmir Mitchell and Ron Johnson on defense and Nate Johnson and Dylan Crawford on offense. I think those five guys especially will light up the field in 2017.

schreibee

February 2nd, 2016 at 3:53 PM ^

I have a question - I always seem to when there's math, but this is different:

Mitchell & Hawkins are now S on this board, not WR? By who's fiat has that been decreed?

Just sheer #s, both in the class and at WR, mean someone has to move, so is this just making a guess that it's those two? Or has something been actualy said from inside the team?

So, here comes the sorta math part - isn't Mitchell's ranking as a WR? He's one of the highest rated players in the class, but as far as I know that's as a WR.

Did one of the sites rank him as a DB separately - or exclusively? And is that the score you used in calculating the value of the class?

Seth

February 2nd, 2016 at 5:28 PM ^

I decreed they're safeties based on SOURCES, which may be ON SLACK CHAT and sometimes KNOW THINGS because THEY TALK TO SOURCES and since they make plenty of sense and haven't been kept SECRET I figured it'd be best to list guys where they are expected to play at Michigan when we talk about them on the radio and stuff. Their position rankings aren't included in the star ratings. If the sites want to continue listing those guys at a position they probably weren't recruited for, that's their perogative.

Brian's mentioned Dytarious Johnson hasn't taken any officials, which is a likely sign that he's not qualifying. Hawkins I think it's been up in the air whether he gets into Michigan and less up in the air whether he meets the NCAA's criteria, whatever that means. If they don't qualify they may go to prep for a year and come in as 2017s--Michigan's going to be replacing a ton of seniors not to mention another year of attrition so there will be plenty of spots next year. Also one guy above (still a mystery publicly) committed as a grayshirt-unless-there's-a-spot like Jeremy Clark-style.

Ahmir Mitchell is already enrolled at Michigan.