when JMFC puts on a michigan jersey
Jack Campbell, Still Comin' On Down
2010 uber-goalie commit Jack Campbell in the Free Press:
“I’ll be a high-end pick in the 2010 (NHL) draft. It really depends on what the NHL team wants me to do. The only thing I can say is I’m loyal to Michigan. I want to be in a Michigan jersey.”
The Daily's Nicole Auerbach, perhaps prompted by the article's attention-grabbing "Campbell could play at Michigan or in OHL" headline:
So what does this kind of a comment mean? It could just be a kid in the spotlight who isn’t sure what to do yet. It could be an indication that Campbell might not stick around all four years at Michigan. Or it could be his way of saying he’s excited about Michigan (maybe not).
This guy's response: Campbell wants to play at Michigan unless some NHL team really wants him to sign right away. This would, presumably, rule out an OHL defection unless the drafting team is just really insanely pro-CHL and also wanted to get their relationship with Campbell off on the wrong foot. There is only one precedent for a Michigan player getting signed by an NHL team and shipped to Canadian juniors, and that's Trevor Lewis, a late first-rounder a couple years ago who the Kings signed immediately. Lewis was rumored to be academically ineligible, FWIW, something that cost Michigan a couple of kids in the late 90s.
So while Campbell could be signed and shipped, I'd worry more if a statement like that came from Merrill or Moffatt. High draft pick skaters are occasionally signed immediately and put in the NHL. Not so with goalies. Goalies develop more slowly and last a lot longer. For example, Al Montoya was the fifth pick in the draft and didn't sign until after his junior year, though he probably could have (and should have) gone after two. While I'm not expecting Campbell gets a degree from Michigan without correspondence courses, I'll take two years from Campbell happily.
Bonus: NHL teams now have a strong incentive to not play their prospects in their 18 and 19 year old seasons because that starts their free agency clock sooner. The team that drafts Campbell will have the choice of developing him on Michigan's dime or theirs; I'm betting they'll pick Michigan unless it's the goddamn Kings.
Also from the Free Press article:
"For me, playing near my hometown of Port Huron was a big thing, so my family who supported me all these years could see me play. I was a State fan growing up. My dad attended Michigan State and my cousin, Marshall Campbell, played football there."
Ouch. Thank you Comley clap clap clapclapclap. If Campbell matriculates and gets drafted as high as it appears he will, that would make two high first-rounders at Michigan with fathers who attended State. (JMFJ is the other.)
or even better, next year if we play like we are capable. the frozen four is in detroit so we've definitely got some things going for us for the next few years
When the moon is in the Seventh House
And Jupiter aligns with Mars.
Then Blue will rule the Frozen Four
And Wolverines will be the stars.
comley. and they will keep him up there too. they think they have a young team (and probably do). but they also played like they have no talent (and probably don't).
I'm too lazy to ready this all so, just give it to me straight... Is this a guy I need to be excited about as a Michigan hockey fan?
None of them really care about playing for Michigan (not to mention actually graduating) as much as burnishing their credentials for the pros. Two years and out at best for Campbell. You're not going to win very many NCs when your most talented players never stay four years.
Most of the elite athletes at every school see college as a stepping stone to the pros. Welcome to reality. He'll help make us a better team.
The interpretation of the headline in the article isn't right regarding the NCAA versus CHL decision as it pertains to the RFA clock. That decision doesn't have much (or really anything at all) to do with the free agency clock running because it's highly unlikely that whichever team drafts him will sign him at 18. The only way that clock starts running in this player's case is if he his signed by the team that drafts him, which means that he will have to play in the NHL as an 18 year old (since players younger than 20 cannot be assigned to the AHL). That's highly unlikely in this player's case. That decision doesn't have anything to do with whether he goes the NCAA route or CHL route.
The decision, in these types of situations, has more to do with the direction that the team that drafts him likes to develop their goaltenders and which CHL team would end up with his rights. Most teams prefer their topflight goaltending prospects to go the CHL route because they play a significantly greater number of games in the CHL than in the NCAA, which means faster development. I think people have developed a bit of a misconception regarding goaltenders developing the NCAA route because of the success of certain NHL goaltenders in recent years. Most of those goaltenders, however, have been late round picks. Just to give a flavor of how recent drafts have gone, in the last four years the earliest a goaltender that went the NCAA route was drafted was Jeff Frazee at 38th overall. For example, in the 2008 draft year there were only two goaltenders that went the NCAA route, and you have to get all the way to pick 158, Grant Rollheiser who went to BU (Round 6, 16th goaltender taken, drafted by Toronto), before you get to a goaltender who went the NCAA route. In 2007, it was pick 113 (Round 4, Kent Patterson, Minnesota, drafted by Colorado). In 2006, it was pick 74 (Round 3, Jeff Zatkoff, Miami, drafted by Los Angeles). In 2005, it was pick 38 (Round 2, Jeff Frazee, Minnesota, drafted by New Jersey). In 2004, which was a bit of an anomaly, there were two taken in the first round that went the NCAA route: Montoya (5th overall, Michigan, by New York) and Cory Schneider (26th overall, Boston College, by Vancouver). In 2003, it was pick 64 (Round 2, Jimmy Howard, Maine, by Detroit). In 2002, it was pick 46 (Round 2, David LeNeveu, Cornell, by Phoenix). In 2001, it was pick 150 (Round 5, Bernd Bruckler, Wisconsin, by Philadelphia). You get the point.
The key determining factor for whether he ends up in the NCAA or CHL will not necessarily be which team drafts him, but rather how high they draft him and what that team has in their pipeline ahead of him. Despite what Brian's article implies (i.e. that Los Angeles has an anti-NCAA bias), there isn't any evidence that certain teams are biased one way or the other, but rather that all teams generally hold that bias. If he's drafted high by a team that is thin in their goaltender prospects, I will bet good money that he goes the CHL route. It just makes sense from a developmental standpoint because he'll have the potential to play 50+ games for certain in the CHL versus maybe 40 games in the NCAA. The factors most apt to change that equation is the fact that he's an American and coming from NDP, which means that he doesn't already have a CHL contract, but that's not necessarily indicative of anything because plenty of goaltenders have gone from NDP to the CHL.
Another point to consider is that he will receive a lot of pressure from Windsor, if that's who he's thinking he will sign with in the CHL. Windsor is not returning any of their goaltenders next year, which means that he would have a great opportunity to play there right away and play a lot.
we want talent... top talent.
but it's frustrating as hell when that talent leaves early. There's no doubt in my mind that Red would have at least two more NCs if guys like Comrie, Camallerie, Komisarek, Johnson, etc etc etc etc had stayed all four years.