Jack Campbell, Still Comin' On Down

When the moon is in the Seventh House
And Jupiter aligns with Mars.

Then Blue will rule the Frozen Four
And Wolverines will be the stars.

comley. and they will keep him up there too. they think they have a young team (and probably do). but they also played like they have no talent (and probably don't).

I'm too lazy to ready this all so, just give it to me straight... Is this a guy I need to be excited about as a Michigan hockey fan?

None of them really care about playing for Michigan (not to mention actually graduating) as much as burnishing their credentials for the pros. Two years and out at best for Campbell. You're not going to win very many NCs when your most talented players never stay four years.

The interpretation of the headline in the article isn't right regarding the NCAA versus CHL decision as it pertains to the RFA clock. That decision doesn't have much (or really anything at all) to do with the free agency clock running because it's highly unlikely that whichever team drafts him will sign him at 18. The only way that clock starts running in this player's case is if he his signed by the team that drafts him, which means that he will have to play in the NHL as an 18 year old (since players younger than 20 cannot be assigned to the AHL). That's highly unlikely in this player's case. That decision doesn't have anything to do with whether he goes the NCAA route or CHL route.

The decision, in these types of situations, has more to do with the direction that the team that drafts him likes to develop their goaltenders and which CHL team would end up with his rights. Most teams prefer their topflight goaltending prospects to go the CHL route because they play a significantly greater number of games in the CHL than in the NCAA, which means faster development. I think people have developed a bit of a misconception regarding goaltenders developing the NCAA route because of the success of certain NHL goaltenders in recent years. Most of those goaltenders, however, have been late round picks. Just to give a flavor of how recent drafts have gone, in the last four years the earliest a goaltender that went the NCAA route was drafted was Jeff Frazee at 38th overall. For example, in the 2008 draft year there were only two goaltenders that went the NCAA route, and you have to get all the way to pick 158, Grant Rollheiser who went to BU (Round 6, 16th goaltender taken, drafted by Toronto), before you get to a goaltender who went the NCAA route. In 2007, it was pick 113 (Round 4, Kent Patterson, Minnesota, drafted by Colorado). In 2006, it was pick 74 (Round 3, Jeff Zatkoff, Miami, drafted by Los Angeles). In 2005, it was pick 38 (Round 2, Jeff Frazee, Minnesota, drafted by New Jersey). In 2004, which was a bit of an anomaly, there were two taken in the first round that went the NCAA route: Montoya (5th overall, Michigan, by New York) and Cory Schneider (26th overall, Boston College, by Vancouver). In 2003, it was pick 64 (Round 2, Jimmy Howard, Maine, by Detroit). In 2002, it was pick 46 (Round 2, David LeNeveu, Cornell, by Phoenix). In 2001, it was pick 150 (Round 5, Bernd Bruckler, Wisconsin, by Philadelphia). You get the point.

The key determining factor for whether he ends up in the NCAA or CHL will not necessarily be which team drafts him, but rather how high they draft him and what that team has in their pipeline ahead of him. Despite what Brian's article implies (i.e. that Los Angeles has an anti-NCAA bias), there isn't any evidence that certain teams are biased one way or the other, but rather that all teams generally hold that bias. If he's drafted high by a team that is thin in their goaltender prospects, I will bet good money that he goes the CHL route. It just makes sense from a developmental standpoint because he'll have the potential to play 50+ games for certain in the CHL versus maybe 40 games in the NCAA. The factors most apt to change that equation is the fact that he's an American and coming from NDP, which means that he doesn't already have a CHL contract, but that's not necessarily indicative of anything because plenty of goaltenders have gone from NDP to the CHL.

we want talent... top talent.