How Good Is The Offense? Are We Really Asking This?
Emotionally, this is an odd week for me. I find that I don't care about Ohio State at all. They're a very good team that's going to win in a not-that-competitive game on Saturday, like they always do. I get irritated at the hurr hurr coming from the Ohio State blogosphere but mostly because Michigan's so far from their level that it seems like a waste of time.
My hate still exists but it's focused internally, as the emails pile up and message boards pile on because I have the audacity to say if it was my decision I'd keep Rich Rodriguez on the condition he reshapes the defensive staff in such a way that we can expect them to do one boring thing reasonably well. I've explained why. In a sentence, the offense is excellent and should maintain that level over the next two years as the defense digs itself out from a massive hole.
This has caused the wing of the Michigan fanbase that thinks keeping Rodriguez is absolutely insane to search high and low for various metrics in which Michigan doesn't rate well. They can't take any of the basic stats...
| Category |
National Rank |
Actual |
National Leader |
Actual |
Conf Rank |
Big Ten Conference Leader |
Actual |
| Rushing Offense | 10 | 257.36 | Georgia Tech | 319.36 | 1 | Michigan | 257.36 |
| Passing Offense | 30 | 257.18 | Hawaii | 391.18 | 2 | Indiana | 283.27 |
| Total Offense | 5 | 514.55 | Oklahoma St. | 552 | 1 | Michigan | 514.55 |
| Scoring Offense | 15 | 36.82 | Oregon | 50.7 | 3 | Wisconsin | 40.91 |
| Sacks Allowed | T-11 | 0.91 | Stanford | 0.36 | 1 | Penn St. | 0.91 |
…and they certainly can't take any of the advanced metrics that rank Michigan second* and fifth nationally, so they resort to things like in-conference points per drive. Michigan is tied for third in the league in that metric.
If you are using this stat, you have decided that Rich Rodriguez should go and are backfilling reasons. If you're trying to downplay Michigan's second-half points against Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin, you're doing the same thing. Michigan got back in those games by scoring often and quickly, by bombing away. Michigan scoring drives against Wisconsin lasted 3:57, 0:22, 2:19, and 2:57. They could do this because defenses were aligned to stop Michigan's powerful ground game even with big second-half leads, which is why Denard Robinson racked up a bunch of deep completions against single-covered WRs in the second half. Prevent defenses do not give up sixty yard touchdowns to tight ends, as Penn State did.
The whole reason the FO stats exist is to smooth out differences in opportunities and schedule strength as best they can and they indicate that whatever problems Michigan has don't include being the nation's #15 scoring offense against a schedule with two real nonconference opponents and without Northwestern (82nd in FEI D) and Minnesota (98th).
David Brandon's got a tough decision ahead of him—something it only seems that people who are still in favor of Rodriguez returning acknowledge—because the offense is elegantly constructed and deadly. Michigan's quarterback couldn't throw a pass straight in the first half and the receivers couldn't catch it when he did, but they still ended the day with more points than any Michigan team had scored against Wisconsin since 1990. The 31 they put up on Penn State were the most since 2000. They're solidly in the top five of the best metrics available with two seniors and a sophomore quarterback. They're going to obliterate the best rushing YPC mark Carr put up since the turn of the century by over a yard and finish in the top 20 in passing efficiency.
Anyone seriously arguing that Michigan's offense is not a reason to keep Rodriguez around is a raving lunatic. Period. I'm tired of being vilified for using numbers in non-abusive ways, but that's what we've come to. My hate week is about other Michigan fans.
*(FEI ranks Michigan second but has not been updated for last Week's games. Since Michigan put up a touchdown better than Wisconsin's scoring average any drop from Michigan will be minimal.)
November 24th, 2010 at 2:08 PM ^
And where did I, or alwaysblue, "constantly complain about Rodriguez and how he is terrible and needs to go and blah, blah, blah"? You're accusing people of being destructive and relentlessly negative for things they never said. You're screaming at phantoms.
November 25th, 2010 at 9:07 AM ^
November 24th, 2010 at 12:45 AM ^
Can you imagine what will happen to this site if UM actually pulls the upset on Saturday?
November 24th, 2010 at 1:15 AM ^
ignore this. i'm drunk.
November 24th, 2010 at 2:11 AM ^
Are people really still trying to get their point across, With over 400 comments theres a pretty good chance it'll get over looked, Im just saying it might not be worth your time.
November 24th, 2010 at 3:15 AM ^
It hurts that Michigan has not beaten OSU since 2003! It hurts that Tressel is 8-1! It hurts that Michigan has the worst defense I have ever seen in any sport relative to the competion! However, nothing hurts more than the fact that this week feels like an oridanry week. There is no hype, excitement, or possibility of a Michigan win. The big question going into the game is whether Coach Rodriguez will surive and not whether Michgan will win or lose? There is no discussion of X's & O's, no discussion of the great games, and no discussion of the great stars in the past. It is all negative! There will be no nerves, tension, or anxiety at noon on Saturday (as fans). There will be no exctiement, joy, or passion throughout the game (as fans). It is going to suck in every way possible.
I feel like this rivalry has been taken away from us all the last three seasons. I wanna feel pain when Michgian gets their ass kicked on Saturday, but I will just be numb. Never in my wildest dreams did I ever think it would be like this as a Michigan fan. Never did I think that an 8-4 season could feel like paradise. Most of all, it sucks for the Michigan seniors! They never signed up for this crap! They have worked their asses off the last 4 or 5 years and they deserve to feel good. They came to Michigan to win!. I hope they can pull this off somehow on Saturday, but it will take a miracle. Give us our rivalry back!!! These pricks in Ohio have it way too easy! Fuck em all!
November 24th, 2010 at 7:52 AM ^
Brian, if you have hate in your heart, let it out! Just because you don't like Will & Grace don't mean there's nothin' wrong with you. There's something wrong with Will! He's a homosexual.
November 24th, 2010 at 7:53 AM ^
The sad thing is this week isn't hate week. It is apathetic week. "The Game" is no longer relevant nationally. That has got to be a concern to us all.
November 24th, 2010 at 7:54 AM ^
"My hate week is about other Michigan fans".
November 24th, 2010 at 8:58 AM ^
if you even want to argue the point, is that they came at the expense of the D.
What I mean is:
1) The staff clearly should have put more emphasis on recruiting D players > having a million and 1 slot receivers/ recruiting academically shaky players (Dorsey/ Witty).
2) I think I read once that Michigan's practices were all about fine tuning the O, and getting the D to practice against that O. So the emphasis was on the O and not the D.
3) RR should have put more attention/ emphasis on hiring Shaffer/ GERG or at least in retaining his own staff for D positions without a leader. In addition, he shouldn't have forced Shaffer/ GERG to run this 3-3-5 (which he did, because Syracuse doesn't run it with Shaffer and GERG never really ran a 3-3-5 before).
November 24th, 2010 at 9:14 AM ^
Yes, Michigan fans make me sick.
November 24th, 2010 at 9:17 AM ^
you are right, Brian. Especially when you factor in that Michigan's offense has done all of this with a first year starter and without the benefit of a defense that can get them the ball back.
No, they are not all the way there yet (too many turnovers, penalties), but they are very, very close. Next year, this offense could look like Oregon's.
After three years of agony, we are finally ready to see a fully loaded, installed, and implemented RRod offense in all its glory, led by the most exciting player in college football, and the smart thing to do is...fire the coach? Insanity.
A thrilling year IV will redeem the ugly years I-III; a coaching change will mean that it was all for nothing.
November 24th, 2010 at 9:41 AM ^
What's the record for comments on a thread? FWIW, the only thing we should be talking about is Defense and place kickers. Right now those seem like they are anything but short term fixes.
November 24th, 2010 at 9:43 AM ^
saying that rich should keep is job because our offense puts up good numbers is idiotic. he's the HEAD COACH. he is responsible for all 3 aspects of the game. offense, defense and special teams. he has completely failed in two of those areas. he's a glorified offensive coordinator. his decision to jam this 3-3-5 crap down both defensive coordinators throats alone shows he has no clue. also, please stop mentioning lloyd carr. it's pathetic to constantly compare the two.
November 24th, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^
DERP DERP DERP!!
November 24th, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^
Brian didn't say that Rodriguez should keep his job because the offense puts up good numbers. He said that anyone seriously arguing that the offense is not a reason to keep RR is wrong.
November 24th, 2010 at 9:57 AM ^
You're going to get hammered for stating a contrary opinion but for what it's worth.....I agree with you. There are three aspects to football and Michigan is horrible at two of them. The defense has gotten progressively worse for three years. We've just seen the three worst defensive teams in in 100+ years of Michigan football. That has to count for something.
November 24th, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^
It's not an argument to keep him as head coach. It's an argument to keep him as offensive coordinator.
I am one of those Michigan fans who think that Rodriguez should go -- but not because I don't think his offense works. I'm convinced that it does work, both in conference and elsewhere.
I think Rodriguez should be replaced because he's demonstrated that he can't effectively manage his defensive staff. The defense has been sub-standard for all three of his seasons, and the problems, as Brian and others have pointed out, can be traced to coaching. The overall defensive scheme is questionable; the coordinator seems to be compelled to run a scheme with which he's neither familiar nor comfortable; player fundamentals are poor; the players repeat the same mistakes; player development is inhibited by ill-advised position switches. The list could go on.
I don't see these as problems with who the defensive coaches are or with how they do their jobs. I see them as problems with how the head coach supervises and manages the defensive staff. In three years, Rodriguez has not shown that he can manage this part of his staff effectively. It makes me wonder whether he's capable of doing it with a brand new staff.
Replacing Rodriguez does not make Michigan's great offense disappear. Other coaches can run an offense like the one Rodriguez has brought here. If Michigan hires a new head coach who can manage his staff and run a spread-to-run offense, Michigan fans won't have to endure another season (or longer) of wondering whether the problem is the head coach or the defensive coordinator.
November 24th, 2010 at 9:53 AM ^
Read what he said again.
Brian didn't say that Rodriguez should keep his job because the offense puts up good numbers. He said that anyone seriously arguing that the offense is not a reason to keep RR is wrong.
November 24th, 2010 at 10:18 AM ^
This is Brian's argument about Rodriguez, in his own words:
if it was my decision I'd keep Rich Rodriguez on the condition he reshapes the defensive staff in such a way that we can expect them to do one boring thing reasonably well. I've explained why. In a sentence, the offense is excellent and should maintain that level over the next two years as the defense digs itself out from a massive hole.
This post also includes a different argument about why much of the "fire Rodriguez" crowd is wrong. I agree with him about the second argument. I disagree with him on the first.
November 24th, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^
So many trolls here.
November 24th, 2010 at 10:01 AM ^
My last post on this subject, on which I've spent far too long . . .
The great irony is that, at least for this week, I'd noticed less arguing on the message boards. We were all pretty much unified in anticipation of the OSU game.
Then Brian reads blublooded's even-toned diary and somehow flips, and launches a screed that has pitted the board against itself, and has the so-called "rational" fans going off about their hatred of their fellow fans and how they don't care of the game.
Well done.
November 24th, 2010 at 10:20 AM ^
"Anyone seriously arguing that Michigan's offense is not a reason to keep Rodriguez around is a raving lunatic. Period" - Brian
Right on. RichRod haters be careful what you wish for. The O is there and the D will improve. A coaching change now will extend, not remedy, the rebuilding process and the losing.
November 24th, 2010 at 11:23 AM ^
Thank you, Brian for your thoughtful comments on Rich Rodriguez, I've been going to Michigan games since 1973 and this year I travelled from Virginia to take my 11-year old to the Illinois game - what a thrill for both of us. I was at Michigan when we went 6-6 in 1984 - it was a nightmare. I was in the stands for Colorado the Desmond Howard trip in the end zone and so many other heart wrenching losses. I also enjoyed the thrill of going to Pasedena in 1981 for Bo's first Rose Bowl win and again in 1997 for the national title game. I've lived and died with Michigan football for a long time.
So I don't come to this conclusion lightly - I think Michigan is very, very lucky that Rich Rodriguez is our head coach. He has a proven track record of success, he is demonstrating progress each year, and his offense is magic.
Coach Rodriguez has been unfairly attacked, in my opinion, since the day he arrived in Ann Arbor. And the fact of the matter is - when he got here the Michigan football program was a wreck.
As a long time fan, I do not understand the affection that many Michigan fans have for Coach Carr. Frankly, I think he drove the program off the cliff but jumped out with a parachute before the rest of us crashed and burned in 2008. In his final 6 years, he went 1-5 against Ohio State - the worst stretch of any Michigan head football coach in our history. In his final year he lost to Appalachian State at home and was blown out by Oregon the following week. We scored 3 points against Ohio State in 2007. Michigan football was in terrible shape when Coach Rodriguez arrived in Ann Arbor - we weren't competitive with our primary rival and were falling further and further behind upcoming programs like Oregon.
In thinking about Coach Rodriguez's third year, I was curious what our defense looked like in Coach Carr's third year. I was surprised at the great junior/senior talent that Coach Moeller assembled before he was let go just before the 1995 season. The 1997 defense included: 13 jr/sr's who started at least one game; 8 of whom played in the NFL (2 are still playing!) and a junior Heisman Trophy winner. If Coach Carr had assembled just half the talent that Coach Moeller left him, I can only dream about how great Coach Rodriguez's third year year would be. But he didn't. And the simple fact is there is a huge difference between the talent and ability of a true freshman and a junior or senior in college.
Coach Rodriguez is an offensive genius, he is showing progress, and I have every confidence that he will build a strong defense as the players he is bringing in develop. The cupboard was dry when he got here. He has filled half of it. Let's give him a reasable amount of time to fill the other half. Obviously, he has to win, but every sign so far, at least for me, demonstrates that he is moving us in the right direction.
1997 Seniors / Juniors who started games on defense:
Jr - James Hall (started 11 games) - LB (NFL - 13 years)
Sr - Clint Copenhaver (started 8) - LB
Sr - Rob Swett (started 3) - LB
Sr - Sam Sword (started 11) - LB (NFL 4 yrs)
Sr - Eric Mayes (started 3) - LB
Sr - Juaquin Feazell (started 3) - LB, DT, DE
Jr - Josh Williams (started 11) - DT (NFL 7 yrs)
Jr - Rob Renes (started 12) - NT (NFL 1 yr)
Sr - Glen Steele (started 11) - DE (NFL 6 yrs)
Jr - Charles Woodson (started 12) - CB (NFL CURRENT - 13 yrs)
Sr - Andrew Weathers (started 10) - CB (NFL 2 yrs)
Jr - Daydrion Taylor (started 1) - CB
Sr - Marcus Ray (started 12) - SS (NFL 1 yr)
November 24th, 2010 at 12:09 PM ^
Thank you for your thoughtful words on Carr's tenure with which I agree completely.
I would only add that I think Lloyd's ego also got in the way of an orderly transition to a new head coach. He should have waited until after the bowl season to announce his retirement. That would have given us more options. Instead, he decided to announce it when he did with the intent, I believe, of trying to force Martin to elevate Debord or one of Lloyd's other coaches to the head coaching position.
Bottomline: Carr was not a good steward of our football program -- he did not leave it better than he found it.
November 30th, 2010 at 4:11 PM ^
love the post, couldn't agree more. I drove up from Richmond for a couple games this year myself.
I still support RR
November 24th, 2010 at 12:28 PM ^
This thread is just too massive to try to read backwards.
November 24th, 2010 at 12:43 PM ^
Thanks, I stupidly had never noticed that option.
November 24th, 2010 at 12:51 PM ^
The defense sucked in 2008 starting Warren and Morgan Trent (NFL) at the corners ... and Brandon Graham (NFL) at one DE.
But that was Scott Shafer's fault.
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