Houses of Usher
11/1/2008 – Michigan 42, Purdue 48 – 2-7, 1-4 Big Ten
As you might have noticed from such posts as "Brian goes to Auburn-LSU," I have an Auburn friend in town. You also might have noticed that Auburn sucks exactly as much as Michigan does this season. In general, this is some small comfort to both of us.
However, this friendship has caused me to pay more attention to Auburn's fortunes, such as they are, and write things about Auburn's botched hiring of spread guru Tony Franklin, and this is where the uncomfortable comparisons start.
If you missed the story, a précis: Auburn fires offensive coordinator Al Borges in December last year, replacing him with Troy State OC Tony Franklin. Franklin's newly implemented "Spread Eagle" racks up 423 yards against Clemson in a Peach Bowl victory. Auburn had eight days to practice it. Clemson was the #6 defense in the country. Woo!
Expectations are high coming in to 2008, whereupon Auburn implodes spectacularly, has an internal hissy fit, and fires Franklin midseason. A couple weeks before the firing Tommy Tuberville starts saying things that make it clear he's not really on board with this spread noise; Smart Football notes that whatever Franklin is running at Auburn isn't the Tony Franklin System(tm).
Underperforming unit, head coach focused on the other side of the ball but with a tendency towards one particular system the coordinator does not run, midseason philosophy shift… it's hard to avoid the parallels between Auburn adopting a shotgun formation and then running tank-sized power back Ben Tate on ill-fated zone stretches and Michigan's bizarre decision to adopt a 3-3-5 stack that, as far as I know, Shafer has never run before. Michigan proceeded to give up 48 points and 559 yards to a 2-6 team starting its third-string quarterback. Said quarterback was a running back three weeks ago.
This is where fail picture goes.
We have two unpleasant choices here: Shafer elects to pull Will Johnson, one of his better starters, for a freshman Boubacar Cissoko and having the move backfire spectacularly, or Rich Rodriguez dictates that change from above. I prefer Door #1 because then the 3-3-5 against Purdue is just an idea that really didn't work, not a sign of internal strife. Internal strife is bad.
So now everyone's guns are trained on Scott Shafer, coordinator of the Worst Defense In Michigan History and designated scapegoat for all (well, half) of Michigan's ills. Arguments will rage between the Fire Him Now and the Probably Fire Him Next Year camps, and interwebs blood will be spilled and people will be virtually roasted alive and it's going to be very dramatic on the message boards and so forth and so on.
Already the inbox is filled with emails asking whether Shafer needs to go. My answer is "probably not," but just like the guy who was asking whether Stevie Brown is shaving points I can no longer say so for certain.
BULLETS
- Hey, at least MINOR RAGE was back in good effect; on one of his touchdowns he ran through a couple tacklers like a giant parade balloon version of Mike Hart. I don't think anyone was surprised when he left the game injured; the only surprise is he didn't have to have a limb amputated and actually returned.
- The other standout was Martavious Odoms, obviously, who was the king of variance on special teams: touchdown, ridiculous punt muff providing someone else a touchdown, etc. I'm pretty sure Purdue's kick coverage team was horrible, but any progress from the return units is welcome, and several times Michigan was one guy away from busting a touchdown.
- As the year progresses I am increasingly skeptical Threet is a long term solution. I don't know if the elbow injuries had anything to do with it, but he refused to keep the ball on the zone read despite Purdue selling out to stop the running back. (If you go back to the liveblog you will see several "keep the #*$@ing ball, Threet!" requests from yrs truly.)
His accuracy was also spotty, especially on screens and the like, and if that doesn't improve I don't see how he can maintain a long-term grip on the starting job. For his sake I hope the elbow injuries are a major drag on his performance; otherwise it's Forcier/Beaver time in 2009.
- They futzed around with the offensive line some but eventually went back to their normal starting configuration, I think. Molk definitely got back in there, and I believe Ferrara got booted. I'll check the film on UFR.
- Did Michigan really burn Justin Feagin's redshirt on some kick coverage? WTF?
did you see where Purdue had the ball for over FIFTEEN minutes longer than us? HOLY. SHIT!
Basically we gave Purdue an extra QUARTER to just keep the ball and try to score on us again and again.
Damn, add "ball possession" to the TO DO list. Leaving the defense on the field for almost THIRTY EIGHT minutes ain't gonna get it done. Shit, if Purdue only has the ball for 30 minutes, we win that game. The 3rd quarter was a disaster for the offense.
Go Blue
overall consumed about 14 mins. Their drives consumed about 22 mins. part of it was us scoring 3 tds on big plays (punt, minor 45 yarder and Stonums 51 yarder) and the rest was our inability to get them off the field. It was quite unusual to see us getting killed by some unknown dude, who was nothing special out of HS (you can check out his profile on scout and rivals, his senior stats are quite comparable to our dual threat guy Feagin!!, with offers from only purdue, indiana and Il)and surrounded by mediocre supporting cast.
Now, either he is god and will continue to do so, or he played well only against us and would fail to replicate this success. The remaining teams on their schedule are State, Iowa and Indiana. State's D is average, Iowa's D agian is not stellar when you take out Maine and Fl intl, while Indiana's d is actually comparable to ours!!
Time of possession is an effect, not a cause. Each team had roughly the same number of possessions, as they do in every game.
Michigan had two one-play TD drives and a punt return for a TD. They had a 14-7 lead with 5:42 left in the first with Purdue having had three full possessions and Michigan having run one offensive play. That greatly skewed the TOP stat, giving Purdue a 9-minute advantage at a time when Michigan had a 7-point lead.
The issue wasn't time of possession; it was Michigan's inability to stop long Purdue drives, which resulted in two things: more points and more TOP. The former is far more important.
with Dr. I am sick of people bitching about our defense being on the field too much. They can resolve that by making stops. It is obvious that our offense is not capable of extending drives. When it is 3rd and 15, make a play and get off the field yourself. I know we had some short TD drives, but the defense is on the hook for most of the time of possession discrepancy.
That's a season trend. Check out the season to date stats. UM is averaging almost 8 minutes less TOP than the opposition. The offense can't stay on the field. The defense cannot make stop on 3rd down (opponents are converting at a 40% rate).
TOP by game:
Just look at the awful badness of that. The only game in which UM had more TOP that it's opponent was the ND Butter Battle 08. The PSU game was close only because PSU sleepwalked throught the entire first half before shaking off the Ambien and applying the clamps in the second half. Miami (of frickin' Ohio) managed to keep the ball 10 minutes more than Michigan.
it IS possible to take away QB roll-outs. I need to watch the game tape (I only caught it on the radio Saturday) to see if we did indeed bring our DEs and LBs hard to the flats and if we were then subsequently burned up the middle by draws and what-not.
Did that happen?
Also, with the major problem on this team being the full-contact fundamentals (i.e. blocking and tackling) it makes no sense that they are still only hitting one day a week (Tuesdays). That's a mistake. Bo, Mo, and Carr all hit TWICE a week and I think in general you saw kids who were better at those two fundamental skills. (And in his first couple of seasons Bo actually went full-contact 3 times week until it became evident that the guys were beating each other up too much in practice.)
Go Blue
Maybe the concern is that we have so many injuries already that we really can't afford to lose more people. That's all I can think of...otherwise I agree that we should be hitting more often.
I read the title and I read the piece and I can't for the life of me figure out what this has to do with episode 302 of MTV's Cribs.
http://www.mtv.com/onair/cribs/episode_archive/index_1.jhtml
(For the literal-minded, this is a joke. I went to UVa, I know my Poe.)
The problem, at least as far as I see it, is that there is no reason that Feagin could not have provided exactly what Siller provided to Purdue: the ability to run. There is NO WAY that both Sheridan and Threet are better runners than Feagin. So even if both of Sheridan and Threet are significantly better passers than Feagin (which is almost certain), the running threat that Feagin brings would seem to offset the throwing deficiencies. Or at least that's what I take away from the Siller performance. If they were going to waste his redshirt on special teams, I have to believe that in the remaining games we will see Feagin at QB.
Siller was recruited to a BCS school to play QB, and he threw well. He's definitely a better thrower than Sheridan. We were the only school of note to recruit Feagin at QB. Since we know he runs better than Sheridan, his throwing ability has to be truly nonexistent for him to be behind Sheridan on the depth chart. Feagin is not going to be a QB, and given our problems at the spot I'd bet he ends up in the secondary. Which was where some SEC schools wanted him.
You noticed that Siller threw pretty well, right?
Yes. I did. It was just an observation and my opinion, which you obviously disagree with. No need to be a jerk about it.
Did you notice that Siller was 21-34 for 266 and 3 TDs? No amount of wishful thinking is going to help Feagin to a stat line like that. It's clear that right now the kid is not the answer at QB. Everyone needs to move on.
I agree with that. It wasn't wishful thinking at all, but rather just pondering why, at this point, they haven't given it a shot. Seriously, at this point, it couldn't get much worse. Also, just to be clear, my entire point was predicated on the basis of the redshirt being burned at such a late point of the season.
ChitownBlue is exactly right. We didnt tackle well, thats why we lost. If the 3-3-5 was technically inferior to the 4-3, I think professional coaches who get paid millions to breathe football 18 hours a day would know. So chill out, just like Rod says EVERY interview he does...our problem is execution (more precisely the utter lack of it). If there is any suggestion at all that can be made it would be to for get about trying to lift weights and learn to tackle first. Once we get that down, we'll start to think about bending metal.
Victory is mine!
Harvard: The MICHIGAN of the East
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
People do remember just how awful Navarre was when he came in his freshman year, right?
I also bet Threet would look better in the passing game if he had, say, Braylon Edwards rescuing some of those throws intended for Tacopants.
is most certainly not the *perfect* fit for this offense. but to say he is a lost cause and has no ability to run it at all, 7 games into his RS FR year, is assinine. if he can develope the ability to make the right decisions with the ball, he can run this offense fairly effeciently. he may not make something out of nothing. he may not turn a crashing DE into a 72 yard TD or make a first down with his legs on 2nd & 17, but he can put the offense in good positions if he makes the right reads and becomes more accurate.
Harvard: The MICHIGAN of the East
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
and I'm at my ideal weight if I was just another 6inches taller.
You make excellent points that if Threet could be more accurate and make better decisions, he'd be a better QB. In my opinion, he doesn't have the necessary tools to make this offense click. RRs spread is built around a guy like Pat White. Hell, Hoyer has more athelticism than Threet.
That's my point. Perhaps I'm off the mark (based on your comments and Chi's). but for now, I'm sticking with my notion.
Those Who Stay Will Be Champions
This is my point. He has shown an ability to make the correct reads, and, I assume, with growth and health can become more accurate. Is he perfect? No. But I'm not ready to bench him permanently because of what I've seen.
my theory,
and it has absolutely no merrit.
RR-and all his 3-3 stack boys talk to shafer about using this week to try the 3-3 and see how it works. problaby have run it in practice, and have it as another package (shafer likes to use multiple fronts) After all you have to have more athletes on the field against a mobel qb, everyone knows that, so its either the 3-3 stack, or the okie, or another nickel type package anyway. Thinking that the offense of purdue is going to struggle with injuries, they rep the 3-3 in pratice,and its going ok against our scout offense.. we are trying some new guys and new spots, to see if we can shake up the competition, and so we dont get accussed of sitting back and not trying the other guys. thy use this as a time to do what everyone is asking them to do ... that is try new things, and new people at new spots (ie warren at safety. Problaby spent all week on the 3-3. problem is, this kid can run and he can throw, and we looke bad in the 3-3on game day. we still cant tackle, doesnt matter what front we are in, and we got beat.. cant it just be that? why does it have to be a big rift, or a big lack of ability of faith by the coaches..
now i have no idea if im right or wrong, obviously
www.gsimmons85.blogspot.com
Makes far more sense to me than RR taking control of the Defense. And if you consider we have Bacher and Pryor coming up seems like a good idea to take a look at something that might work against a mobile QB.
That's kinda what I thought, too, Coach. Hey Purdue's putting in some raw athlete kid at QB. He's probably not going to be able to throw all that well and the main danger from him will be his legs, so let's put a nickel man out there to help keep him from getting around the corner. That should slow him... oh, crap - he can throw pretty darn well.
I'm surprised to read, "I am increasingly skeptical Threet is a long term solution." EVERYTHING about this season has to go, and that includes Threet as the starting QB. Not because he can't improve in the offseason, but because of the lack of confidence anyone has in him.
Players watch the film, they see the obvious mistakes and horrendous throws.
Imagine, if you will, it's the beginning of next season's camp. The stench of this season has been aired out, new kids have arrived, hope springs eternal from the players, coaches, admin, staff, and fans..............and then,,,,,Threet takes the snapas with the first team. I can actually HEAR the wind leaving the sails before the season even gets started. And speaking of that, what about the collective, "Are you fucking kidding me?" when Threet trots onto the field in the first game next season.
Forget that. Threet has sufficiently proven he can't QB this team. Get him the hell outta there. He and Stevie Brown can watch from the best seats in the house, for all I care.
It's results, or your ass is on the bench. PERIOD!
Let's GO Blue!
Those Who Stay Will Be Champions
I suppose you think everyone on the team should be booted. Let's just start fresh with a new group of freshmen and walk-ons. No only is that a stupid idea, it's unfair to Threet to suggest that this season is his fault. No one could have expected him to be very good this year with no experience and in a system he'd never played in before. On top of that, he has has a very inexperienced supporting cast, especially the o-line, which has been awful.
Threet has shown that he CAN make accurate throws (sometimes) and can even run pretty well. I think he will be better next year. More importantly, it's is beyond idiocy to think that even if he proves to be the better quarterback at the beginning of next season, he shouldn't start because we need to purge everything from this year (oh yeah, but only the quarterback).
I see I wrote, "Everything about this season has to go."
That's a mistake and I should NOT have typed that.
That's an admittedly dumb thing to say, even by MY standards. LOL
Those Who Stay Will Be Champions
I mentioned THREET and Stevie Brown. That's it. Nowhere did I say I wanted everyone on the team to get booted. Nor did I mention starting fresh with a whole new group of people.
The QB is paramount to the success of the offense. For Christ's sake, look at what Purdue did with a backup tailback athe QB position. The kid made plays because he's athletic. Threet is NOT athletic. He's almost the same model as Grbac, Navarre, and Henne.
Come on! I can't be the only one who acknowledges this.....
Those Who Stay Will Be Champions
"EVERYTHING about this season has to go"
and in the very next post...
"Nowhere did I say I wanted everyone on the team to get booted"
Come on.
He's a fucking freshman, man. The complete loss of any kind of perspective around here mind-boggling.
This guy has been on a college campus and practicing with a team for nearly 2 full years (Spring 07 at GT, and last fall to present with us).
We are a spread team. He is NOT a spread QB. Purdue took a thrid string guy who was A TAILBACK up until 3 weeks ago and he torched us. How does THAT guy make plays with his arm and legs yet our guy hasn't won us a victory yet? Sorry Chi, he's a square peg in a round hole.
Those Who Stay Will Be Champions
.........GGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Guststus Similis Pullus
Actually, Siller was a QB who they moved to tailback earlier this year and then back to QB when their second string QB went down for the year.
And I really doubt he's going back to RB -- he should be their starter next year, they already run a spread and as they showed Saturday they can convert that into a run-heavy spread pretty easily if they want.
All manner of guys enroll early and then redshirt their freshman year. They're still redshirt freshmen. That's *exactly* what Threet is. It's totally bizarre to assert that he's anything else.
1. Because Threet hasn't had the fortune to play our defense.
2. Because, believe it or not, there are more factors that influence offensive success than your Quarterback.
is Dumars in the top 25% of GMs in the NBA? Or does the NBA suck too much for it to matter?
Give it to Wheatley!
Spinning head...
I think you got lost somehow.
The answer to Walmart Wolverines: Save-A-Lot Spartans
Check it out, no question, Jim.
"Did Michigan really burn Justin Feagin's redshirt on some kick coverage? WTF?"
My thoughts exactly.
Is it honestly relevant?
Well, like you said "He's a fucking Freshman... Man" Why needlessly burn a year of eligibility? If you're saying he's not a relevant player, how can you predict? Like you said, he's just a freshman.
And I know you were talking about Threet, so don't bother explaining; but the same statement applies.
I'm going to assume the staff had a reason to play him. Moreso, I'm going to assume that they discussed with Feagin if he wanted to get on the field, or keep his redshirt, as, generally, this is a mutual decision.
IMO, I think the coaches saw there was no way Feagin was going to make it as a college QB. Perhaps it's his head, or his arm. I don't know but it was something that made it obvious to THEM that he would never pan out.
The move may have served 2 purposes:
1) he's no longer another QB on the depth chart which may ease the minds of potential QB recruits
2) he may potentially help us at the slot position.
Let's hope the he can field a punt/kickoff and that he's tough. Hell, he might even get a shot at playing safety in spring ball. I know if I was a guy sitting 3rd on the charts, I'd beg my coach to give me a shot at SS/FS.
Those Who Stay Will Be Champions
As of today, he's something like our 4th QB and 8th WR. Next year, it would be something like 6th QB and 10th WR. If I were him, I'd take any opportunity to play I can.
Threets accuracy was spotty, but when was it not? The guy just doesn't throw the ball well.
IMHE
it seems like he wanted the 3-3-5 against Purdue and wanted to try something new. I guess they were concerned with having 4 DL's chase Purdue's guys around all game and wanted to rotate them.
http://videos.mlive.com/annarbornews/2008/11/video_ive_been_here_10_mont...
Boycott the Detroit Free Press! Do not click on any link to a freep article.
GO BLUE
Getting smoked by a mobile qb has been a Michigan tradition for as long as I can remember.
No one should be shocked by this.
This preformance will probably vault Siller to stardom just like the 2004 game did for Troy Smith.
Due to "popular" demand:
http://jimharbaughscramble.blogspot.com/
is worse than I ever imagined possible. As Brian alluded in his post, Rodriguez overuling his DC to put in a new game plan mid-season could spell disaster not only for this year but speaks poorly about his judgement for the long term.
Does anyone think we would have won if we stayed with a 4-3?
I kind of do.
available?
the D wasn't a complete catastrophy, so how can going to a totally new set be 'tinkering?' to me, this smells like change for change's sake and abandoning midstream the thing you think works best.
but, this is all moot, b/c it sounds like SS had no choice.
Harvard: The MICHIGAN of the East
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
The thing I find disturbing, outside of a potential power struggle between RR and Shafer, is the lack of progress from many of the players. Mouton and Martin are the only ones that seem to be better now than they were in Sept. I don't really care who the coordinator is as long as they teach our players how to tackle.