THE ESSENTIALS

Jon Crispin and a microphone is the worst Penn State combination since [REDACTED -ed]

THE US

This is the second of Michigan's three QUADRANT ONE(!) opportunities to close the regular season; winning the first one of those was enough to move Michigan up to a six seed on the previously skeptical Bracket Matrix. This one might not draw that kind of attention because PSU is struggling to get into the tourney instead of competing for a Sweet 16 seed like OSU was, but it's considerably tougher per Vegas and ranking systems. Penn State has been on a tear that has moved them into a virtual tie with Michigan on Kenpom. Since it's a road game this equates to a 38% shot at victory.

For Michigan to do that they'll have to have one of those games where they shoot well from the perimeter. Scuffling, like they've done too frequently this year, means they'll have to lock down a very hot offense. But they could do that. The matchups here are weird, what with PSU's 6'5" lead dog and Michigan's stretch five.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

get out of my dreams and into my 30% usage guy

Penn State has a bright future, four guys who rank in the top 20% in ORTG nationally... and an NIT resume they're desperately trying to repair late in the year.

PSU's policy of scheduling almost exclusively tomato cans has bit them hard. Not only did they exit their nonconference schedule with zero wins of note, but they were saddled with a loss to Rider. Their only power conference opponents in the nonconference schedule were their tournament and the conference-mandated Big Ten-ACC Challenge, and their lone win in those three games was against a historically bad Pitt outfit.

Various other wobbly losses—they're the only team Minnesota has beaten in the post-Lynch era—left them looking adrift at 13-8... and then they went to OSU for a W and ran off six of seven, including another W over the Buckeyes. Their only loss in that stretch was at MSU. Unfortunately, they just blew a shot to upset Purdue; Michigan is their last shot at an attention-getter before the conference tournament. They probably need this game and another W over the conference's four tourney-bound teams to have an argument.

They've gotten here by riding Tony Carr. Carr is a 6'5" dude with an assist rate scraping the top 100 who's hitting 46% from three, with about a third of those unassisted. He is Penn State's annual Guy Who Takes A Ton Of Bad Shots Because He Has To, and about 75% of his usage comes inside the line. If that's a free throw that's going very well (83%). If it's a shot it's usually away from the rim and not going so hot. He's hitting 40% from two. Hoop Math classifies almost half his shots as 2PJ, which get assisted 4% of the time—ie, never. He's hitting a respectable number (36%) but his rim forays are very bad (50%), so you get a guy who's efficient shooting threes and will move the D around to set up his teammates frequently, but if you can get him to drive and shoot that outcome is usually going to be good for you.

That season-long number might not be the best one to use, though. PSU's recent surge onto the bubble has directly corresponded with a Tony Carr ORTG surge. Carr averaged a dismal 93 ORTG in his first eight Big Ten games of the year. His most recent eight? 122, with two hamblastings of Ohio State in which he put up 167 and 144. The only two teams in that stretch to hold him down fairly well were MSU, Purdue, and Rutgers; the former two won. Rutgers did not because they scored 43 points in a 68 possession game. You remember Rutgers.

6'8" F Lamar Stevens is the other heavy-usage PSU player. He's another guy who takes about half his shots in no-man's land. He's very good there (41%), but no-man's land is a place where very good still isn't very good. Think Nigel Hayes. He generates most of his shots himself; in an ideal world he'd be able to shift some of his usage on to other guys but PSU has a couple of limited dudes on the court at all times. Leaving him open from deep is something you might get away with—he's at 29%.

G Josh Reaves is by far PSU's most efficient scorer. His return from suspension was a catalyst for PSU's recent run, and put some respect on that run: per Torvik PSU is the best team in the country since January 25th, a span of eight games.

Reaves hitting 61% inside the arc because, unlike everyone else on the team, he works his way to the rim and converts. He's also a 39% three point shooter. It's grim in between but vanishingly few of his shots come in between. He's the platonic opposite of the first two guys, only shooting when he has a good shot. That results in a MAAR-esque usage rate, super efficiency, and a bunch of bad shots dumped on Carr and Stevens when he can't make something happen.

Reaves is also a top-class pickpocket, ranking 13th nationally in steal rate. If they stick him on Matthews it's probably time for Matthews to have a quiet game of defense and rebounding.

watkins is first team all mustache

C Mike Watkins is the beneficiary of a disproportionate number of PSU assists. 80% of his buckets at the rim are assisted, which is why he's hitting 81% there. He does have a solid conversion rate (47%) when pushed a little further out, but his main job on offense is to dunk it when someone draws help defense. It's unlikely that PSU tries to post him up much, and if they do, whatever.

Watkins will be a bigger factor on the other end of the floor, where his combo of block rate (9.6, 33rd nationally) and defensive rebounding (31%, 6th) is magnificent. He's probably the single biggest reason that PSU defense is in the top 20.

His presence is also a Penn State bellwether. Ace noted on the podcast that Penn State losses are highly correlated with Watkins foul trouble or otherwise limited minutes. While his foul rate isn't particularly high, Michigan might want to take it at him a bit if he does get a quick one. His backups are useless.

The final starter, G Shep Garner, is probably the most extreme Just A Shooter in the league this year, hitting 42% from deep and attempting just 34 shots inside the line this season. He will occasionally rise up in front of your face, but if he ventures inside the line it'll be a shock.

Why is this team not solidly in the tournament? Well, Penn State is a fair bit like Ohio State in that they have a very limited number of guys who can play basketball and then a cliff. Their best bench guy is a guard who has a sub-100 ORTG.

That would be Nazeer Bostick, a meh-usage gentleman who has a TO rate of 22 and shoots 48/23 from the floor. His lone statistical assets are a high FT rate and excellent results once he reaches the line. The rest of the guys are yet worse. Freshman G Jamari Wheeler has a 24 TO rate and shoots 44/15, compounding that with 39% FT shooting.

The only other two guys to crack four minutes a game are two aforementioned backup posts. C Satchel Pierce is a seven-footer who gets only 13% of PSU's shots on the floor but has a usage rate of 21 because a full third of his box score events are TOs. C Julian Moore has 10% usage and is a nonexistent defensive rebounder.

Minutes from any of these guys are a major dropoff, especially the centers.

THE TEMPO-FREE

via Bart Torvik

While Penn State and Michigan take different routes to get there, they arrive at virtually the same spot on both ends of the floor. Michigan is 46th on offense and 19th on defense (per Kenpom); Penn State is 49th and 18th. Torvik has slightly different but fundamentally similar takes.

PSU's offense is middling to good at most things except getting to the line and converting, where they are bad. They're good at threes but don't take that many.

Their defense is strong thanks largely to excellent two point defense and a Michigan-esque ability to prevent threes from going up. Watkins and company combine for a top 20 block rate; Reaves and company get them to 30th in steals. Michigan is usually pretty good against teams that rely on creating turnovers, and PSU does, but the Nittany Lions are solid in just about everything and cut off outside supply.

THE KEYS

Mo's first three. This is a team relying heavily on closeouts and rim protection to create an excellent defense. Mo Wagner can blow up those assumptions. It's best if he starts the game by doing that, because it's human nature to react to previous events. If Mo can hit a couple early threes then he drags Watkins out to the perimeter, whereupon PSU guards have to stay in front of smaller, quicker guys.

A subset of this bullet point: Mo is very annoying, and Watkins can be goaded from time to time. If Mo can get him off his game that might lead to foul trouble and the massive downgrades PSU has behind him.

How do you align defensively? I don't really know when the PG-type substance is 6'5". Simpson might be a good matchup anyway since Carr doesn't make a ton of unassisted threes. Michigan's top priority should probably be to prevent assists and let PSU drivers shoot in the midrange, so if Simpson is able to prevent D rotations by staying in front that might be fine even if Carr can shoot over him?

Activity in the vicinity of a liquid. This should be a game for Jordan Poole. He's a rise-up three point shooter whose iffy defense shouldn't matter as long as he can stay in Shep Garner's face. (Or the face of one of PSU's iffy bench players.) If he can carry over his performance from the last game that would go a long way.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

PSU by 3.