THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Coming off a disappointingly typical loss at Michigan State against a very much untypical MSU team, Michigan now faces a must-win against reeling Ohio State. Per Kenpom this is Michigan's most likely win left on the schedule, a 75% shot. (At Rutgers is only 69% despite Rutgers being almost 100 slots worse in overall ranking, if you want a stark indicator of how much home and away swing affect college basketball.)

It would be nice if Zak Irvin had a bounce back.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

It's been a minute since Thad Matta had an excellent team and this one could be his undoing. A year after settling for an NIT bid, OSU isn't anywhere near the tournament. The parade of one-and-done talent has largely stopped, and losing jack-of-all-trades Keita Bates-Diop after just nine games hasn't helped.

JaQuan Lyle is supposed to be the lead dog and does pile up buckets of assists, but his usage is only 23%. That's usually good—individual efficiency decreases as usage goes up and Ohio State is a staggeringly balanced team—but since the guys around Lyle aren't that good it adds up to a very balanced and very mediocre outfit. There's a strong whiff of Dion Harris in Lyle's stats: almost 40% of his shots are two point jumpers and those are assisted 3% of the time. If he's not creating a shot, nobody is.

Trevor Thompson is a simple and effective player. He vacuums in rebounds at a prodigious rate and gets a bunch of shots at the rim that he converts. He does not make much on his own. Just a fourth of his shots at the rim are unassisted, almost all of those putbacks, and if he has to take a jumper he converts a bleah 35% rate. Michigan's post defense is not going to be tested unduly; Thompson gets his off of Lyles penetration, whether it's a regular assist or one of the Kobe variety.

Thompson is a rim protector who will dent Michigan's interior scoring, such as it is.

Marc Loving and Kam Williams are near identical offensive players despite a six inch height difference: just shooters. Loving gets 18% of his shots at the rim; Williams gets 13%. The vast bulk of their offense are jumpers they hit just under 40 percent on. Good when it's a three; not so good when it's a two, and it's frequently a two. Loving, at 6'8", is a frustrating defender per Ohio State folk I follow on twitter.

Jae'Sean Tate, despite being just 6'4" is the exact opposite of the above gentlemen: 60% of his shots come at the rim and he finishes 75% of them. That is frankly incredible at his size, especially since Thompson has dented his putback rate.

Ohio State's bench is weak. They go eight or nine deep depending on the foul situation at center. CJ Jackson is a bonafide point guard who will create shots at the same rate Lyle does. His TO rate and three point shooting are both poor. Micah Potter and David Bell are the backup posts; both are inefficient, low-usage interior scorers. They are worse than Thompson in all ways, and Thompson averages 5.9 fouls/40. The game may well be decided by which team gets to the backup center more quickly.

Freshman wing Andre Wesson has been a non-entity on offense but they're playing him a ton. He had 17 minutes against Iowa (five points on seven shot equivalents, two rebounds, no other stats) and 19 against Maryland (0 points on one shot, two DREBs, two fouls). He's their defensive stopper. That's the ticket.

THE RESUME

Ohio State's best nonconference win was over Kenpom #61 providence; they also lost to Florida Atlantic. In the league they're 3-7 with wins over MSU, Nebraska, and Minnesota. Only Nebraska was on the road, and they won that by one point. OSU would have to win out to get on the bubble.

THE TEMPO-FREE

No chart because Ace is on vacation.

Ohio State is mediocre in every department on offense, ranking from 103rd to 166th nationally in all four factors. That mediocrity extends into drill-down stats that are all almost entirely unremarkable except for good-but-not great shooting inside the arc and bad-but-not-terrible free throw shooting.

Things are a bit more swingy on D, where OSU is very good at two-point D and avoiding free throws; they are poor at forcing turnovers and surprisingly mediocre at defensive rebounding.

THE KEYS

Stay in front of Lyle. OSU is a balanced team but their efficiency is not. The good bit of their offense is Lyle creating a look at the rim for Tate or Thompson or an open three for Loving or Williams. The bad bit of their offense is everything else. This is a game where I would be downright enthusiastic about hard hedges if not for the disparity between Michigan's starting center and his backup.

I'm fine with Lyle tossing up contested two pointers even though he'll hit an unusual number of them. Prevent him from getting to the rim and Michigan's gone a long way towards winning the game.

Center foul trouble. Both teams have a huge gap between their starting center and his backup(s). Two early fouls on either starting 5 will have a huge impact.

Outshoot them. OSU gives up a lot of threes and doesn't take many. OSU is average at hitting them and average at defending them; Michigan is very good at hitting them and very very very bad at defending them. The operative theory in college basketball is that there is no defense you can play bad enough to give up 50% on threes and that Michigan's D will regress to the mean. Here's hoping.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 8.