THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

Juwan Howard is not revealing much about Isaiah Livers's status. This is the entirety of what he had to say on the situation at his latest presser:

“He’s improving. Hopefully he’ll get better soon.”

I'd be pleasantly surprised if he's back in the lineup.

This is a huge week for Michigan's tourney positioning as the Wolverines play back-to-back home games for the last time this season. Both the Ohio State and Michigan State contests are projected as virtual coin-flips. While Michigan has a decent spot in the projected tourney field at the moment—an 8-seed on both Torvik and the Bracket Matrix—that could change in a hurry with a couple of home losses. The Wolverines need to win at least one game this week to feel at all comfortable with their standing; this first game looks like the better bet.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Apologies for the self-quote; the Buckeyes and their star center led off the "stock down" section of yesterday's Big Ten post:

Ohio State/Kaleb Wesson. The Buckeyes have pulled out of a slide with wins over Northwestern and Indiana, but prior to that they'd lost six of seven, and they face one of the more difficult schedules to finish conference play. Meanwhile, they won't have talented freshman guard DJ Carton for an undetermined period of time while he steps away from the program to attend to his mental health.

While Kaleb Wesson began the year as one of the stories of the season, his production has tapered. Dropping a bunch of weight has helped his defense and his outside shot; it also appears to have hurt his post offense, as his two-point percentage is a career-low 47%, and that drops to 44% against top-50 teams. Since December, in fact, he's had a hard time consistently being a clear help to his team—he's had seven games with a positive box plus-minus and seven with a negative BPM in that span.

Despite the above, Kaleb Wesson is still the man around these parts. The svelter version of Wesson may not be finishing around the rim like he used to, but he's also shooting 41% on a decent volume of three-pointers, rebounding as well as anyone in the conference, and playing better defense than when was carrying that extra weight. Another major improvement, one that's often overlooked, is Wesson's increased minutes: he's playing 77% of OSU's minutes in Big Ten play after not breaking 56% in his first two seasons. As Michigan fans well know, one of the most important things your standout center can do is stay on the floor.

The loss of freshman guard DJ Carton, who is temporarily stepping away from the program to attend to his mental health, is a significant one. Carton is a legitimate NBA prospect and by far OSU's best perimeter scoring threat; while he turns the ball over more than ideal, he's also their best passer.

Carton's absence puts a lot of pressure on Florida State transfer CJ Walker at the point. Walker's full-season numbers resemble a low-usage, somewhat worse version of Carton's, but he's dropped off as a scorer in Big Ten games. He's capable of scoring outbursts or falling off the map; his last five games had point totals, in order of least to most recent, of 18, 2, 11, 3, and 14.

Older yet smaller brother Andre Wesson has been a rock for the Buckeyes as an efficient, versatile tertiary option. As either a quick stretch four or 220-pound load at the three, he's canning 46% of his threes and finishing well when his teammates set him up near the rim. He's what you want in a senior role player.

Power forward Kyle Young is another player who sticks to his role. In his case, that role is glue guy. Most of his buckets come at the rim; they're either assisted baskets or putbacks. He doesn't turn the ball over and posts up about once a game. He provides a little bit of shot-blocking and defends his position well. He rebounds. He'll get called "scrappy" at some point during the broadcast. You know the deal.

The backcourt play, particularly when you remove Carton, has been shaky. 6'3" sophomore Duane Washington Jr. is a relatively effective three-point gunner; his effectiveness drops off a cliff when he ventures inside the arc, he's not a playmaker, and he grades out as OSU's worst defender on Synergy.

Classmate Luther Muhammad has the build of a player who should be attacking the rim with aplomb. Instead, he mostly sticks to three-pointers, and he hasn't hit much of anything in Big Ten play—he's 4-for-17 on twos and 9-for-32 on threes. He ranks third in the conference in steal rate, though that also comes with some blow-bys and backcuts when he takes risks.

Kaleb Wesson's big minutes load leads to an interesting frontcourt rotation. Backup big EJ Liddell, a 6'6", 236-pound freshman, plays most of his minutes alongside Kaleb. While Liddell's game isn't particularly refined, he plays strong on-ball defense and draws a ton of fouls while shooting 70% at the line. His size isn't an advantage against Big Ten centers, but it can be against skinnier power forwards. Meanwhile, when Kaleb Wesson exits the game, coach Chris Holtmann tends to go with a small lineup featuring Young at center and Andre Wesson at the four.

Those lineups usually had Carton in a three-man backcourt. Instead, we may see an increased role for 6'5" sophomore wing Justin Ahrens, brother of MSU's Kyle. Ahrens is an extreme Just A Shooter™; he's made 17-of-42 threes, 3-of-4 twos, and 1-of-2 free throws this season with four assists and eight turnovers. Lanky 6'9" freshman Alonzo Gaffney hasn't looked ready for prime time in his scant minutes; he may see a short shift in which OSU hopes he blocks a shot and converts an easy layup without coughing up the rock. He's used all of four possessions in Big Ten play: a two-point make and three turnovers.

THE TEMPO-FREE

We're moving to conference-only stats, which are probably more indicative of team quality at this point, even with a smaller sample size. Otherwise, not a lot separates the non-NU Big Ten teams statistically. I've mostly been referencing B1G-only stats recently anyway.

Four Factors explanation

While they get there in different ways, the overall profiles of Michigan and Ohio State in Big Ten games are similar: solid, if inconsistent, offenses that are having a tough time overcoming poor defensive play.

In OSU's case, they've been able to shoot from downtown better than any other Big Ten team—though Carton played a big role in that—and they make frequent trips to the line, which has helped them overcome mediocre interior scoring and an ugly turnover rate. They're happy to slow the game to a grind; Saturday's win over Indiana was a 59-possession slog.

Michigan rising up for a three-pointer will be a weakness-on-weakness endeavor; while Michigan is 12th in the Big Ten in 3P%, OSU is dead last in 3P% allowed. The Bucks aren't doing a great job of protecting the paint, either, and they frequently put opponents on the line. They've salvaged the conference's #9 defense by cleaning the glass.

THE KEYS

Shut down Walker. Zavier Simpson should be licking his chops for this opportunity. Even when DJ Carton was in the lineup, OSU tended to go as Walker goes. He averages 8.6 points, 4.0 assists, and 2.0 turnovers while shooting 57% on twos and 43% on threes in OSU wins; he's at 6.0 points, 1.3 assists, and 1.4 turnovers while shooting 43/25 in losses. If Simpson can turn Walker into more of a shooter than a playmaker, Michigan's outlook is bright.

Let Teske handle Wesson. I know we've spent much of the year asking for double-teams against good post players, but Kaleb Wesson hasn't been the most effective post scorer since dropping all that weight, and Jon Teske's size could give him a lot of trouble—it did last year even when he had those extra pounds. Meanwhile, OSU is leaning hard on three-pointers to power their offense, and they have some quality shooters in Andre Wesson, Washington, and Ahrens. If Michigan wants to help off Muhammad, fine, but they're playing with fire if they send from other spots—the non-shooters are garbage bucket/offensive rebound threats.

Brandon Johns. This is another matchup where an aggressive Johns could make all the difference. He's either going to be matched up against players a few inches shorter than him (Young, A. Wesson) or less athletic (Liddell). Ohio State hasn't defended the three-point arc well, and given the personnel, Johns is one of the players more likely to get a number of good looks from the outside. If he can carry over his momentum from the last two games, that'd go a long way towards a win.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.

The Buckeyes become more one-dimensional without Carton, which should bring out another solid defensive performance from Michigan. Nobody watching this game is going to feel great if it comes down to outside shooting but the Wolverines could make up for that because of their somewhat unexpected advantage at interior scoring.