Hoops Preview: Nebraska Comment Count

Ace

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #46 Michigan (11-6, 1-3 B1G) vs

#86 Nebraska (9-7, 3-1)
WHERE Crisler Center

Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN 2 pm ET, Saturday
LINE Michigan -8 (KenPom)

Michigan -8 (Bovada)
TV BTN

PBP: Wayne Randazzo

Analyst: Stephen Bardo

Right: Same.

THE US

To nobody's surprise, Michigan is no longer in the field in the Bracket Matrix, and the majority of the brackets that include them haven't been updated since the Illinois debacle.

Tomorrow's matchup with Nebraska looked a whole lot better a couple months ago, prior to M's defensive collapse and the Huskers' unexpectedly stong start in conference play. KenPom has Michigan as an eight-point favorite; their 76% chance to win is the highest projection for any game on the rest of the schedule—yes, even including M's trip to Rutgers. Both sides probably feel the line should be closer than that, even though Nebraska must deal with the loss of their best post player, Ed Morrow. The betting sites have yet to weigh in. [UPDATE: Michigan -8, just like KenPom. The Morrow injury probably played a big factor in that line.]

It's hard to overstate how much Michigan needs to win this game. Heading into the Kohl Center next week at 1-4 in the conference would be a nightmare scenario.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 5 Glynn Watson So. 6'0, 175 80 23 111 Not At All
Excellent three-point and free-throw shooter, not a great finisher. Top-50 in steal rate.
G 0 Tai Webster Sr. 6'4, 195 88 27 106 Not really
Big, aggressive point guard shoots 51/33/72 with high FT rate.  
G 11 Evan Taylor Jr. 6'5, 206 48 14 88 Very
Inefficient, low-usage scorer with high turnover rate. Defensive specialist.
F 15 Isaiah Roby Fr. 6'8, 214 33 18 83 Very
Good shot-blocker, otherwise struggling. One of a few options to replace Morrow.
F 12 Michael Jacobson So. 6'9, 230 63 17 97 Very
Good offensive rebounder, poor finisher. Usually a PF but could play C with Morrow out.
F 10 Jack McVeigh So. 6'8, 215 48 15 96 Kinda
Stretch four type shooting 36% on twos and 30% on threes with little rebounding.
F 2 Jeriah Horne Fr. 6'7, 222 22 19 108 Not really
Just A Shooter™ type is making 10/30 on threes, 9/14 on twos.
C 32 Jordy Tshimanga Fr. 6'11, 275 24 23 83 Very
Big impact on boards, only shooting 34%. Frequently in foul trouble.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Nebraska got off to a surprising 3-0 start in Big Ten play with road wins at Indiana and Maryland. On Sudnay against Northwestern, they lost more than just a game when Ed Morrow, their starting center and best post player by some distance, went down with a foot injury that will keep him out indefinitely. The replacement options leave something to be desired:

Nebraska basketball coach Tim Miles is testing two candidates to fill the starting spot for Saturday’s game at Michigan that is vacant due to center Ed Morrow’s foot injury.

Miles isn’t saying who the two are, but evidence Thursday pointed strongly to center Jordy Tshimanga and wing Isaiah Roby. Both are true freshmen. Neither has started a game.

Inserting the 6'11, 275-pound Jordy Tshimanga into the lineup would allow starter Michael Jacobson, a good rebounder but iffy inside finisher, to play his natural power forward position. The issue is Tshimanga has been struggling mightily aside from offensive rebounding; he's shooting 34% from the field with a 20% turnover rate while committing over eight fouls per 40 minutes. Isaiah Roby, the wing option, provides more shot-blocking (oddly enough) and offensive production, but that is only relative: he's making 46% of his twos, is 1-for-10 on threes, and has an ugly 30% turnover rate. Regardless of which player replaces Morrow in the starting lineup, Jacobson will see a lot of time at the five.

While the frontcourt is in disarray, the backcourt poses a stiff test for Michigan's leaky perimeter defense. Sharpshooter Glynn Watson is averaging 21 points in Big Ten play; he's making 44% of his threes this season and he can also be a pest on defense. Oversized point guard Tai Webster is averaging 20 points, 4.5 boards, and 4.3 assists in conference play; he's at his best when he's going to the basket off the pick-and-roll—he's a solid finisher at the tin and draws a lot of fouls.

Wing Evan Taylor is presumably out there for his defense. He's got a decent steal rate and his offensive numbers are awful: 46/17/59 shooting splits with 19 assists and 18 turnovers. Just A Shooter™ type Jeriah Horne is the best bench option on a squad whose depth has been hurt by injury; while he's only shot 33% from downtown, he doesn't hesitate to hoist—he went 2-for-10 from beyond the arc in their overtime win over Iowa.

THE RESUME

The conference stuff has been covered. Nebraska has a rough nonconference season, going 6-6 with a 1-5 record against top-40 teams. While they've had a tough time hanging with elite squads, they've proven they can beat decent ones, with a win over #39 Dayton in addition to the victories at Indiana and Maryland. The Huskers do have one bad loss, falling at home by eight to Gardner Webb.

THE TEMPO-FREE



Four Factors explanation

Nebraska has awful season-long shooting numbers, but while their two-point shooting has remained bad in Big Ten play, their three-point shooting has perked up significantly; they're third in the conference at 42%. They've also been quite active on the offensive boards, though we'll see if that continues in Morrow's absence.

The defense relies on forcing turnovers to overcome some poor perimeter defense; opponents are shooting 39% from beyond the arc against the Huskers this season. They've been bad on the glass, though we haven't seen Michigan really even attempt to get second-chance buckets.

THE KEYS

Attack the inexperienced bigs. Moe Wagner is coming off perhaps his worst effort of the season, but Morrow's absence provides him and DJ Wilson a great opportunity to produce on offense—and, mercifully, takes away Nebraska's main post threat on the other end.

Contain Webster. Michigan should do whatever they can to keep Tai Webster, a good finisher who draws a lot of fouls off the dribble but an iffy perimeter shooter, outside the arc. That'll take a collective team effort, especially against the high screen, that we haven't seen for a while.

Play some defense. Any defense.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 8.

This is not the time to tempt the KenPom gods. I'll add that I'd have a hard time sticking with this line if Morrow weren't hurt.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview.

Comments

UM Fan from Sydney

January 13th, 2017 at 3:37 PM ^

I believe Warde needs to start looking for another coach. John is a good coach, but it's no surprise that we were winning more when there were NBA players on the teams. No one on this team is even close to being NBA-caliber. I'm not going to say John got lucky with those great players we had, but he just can't seem to get guys like them anymore. We need and have needed a very athletic and strong center, but haven't had a player like that in a while. Mitch McGary is as close as it gets to someone like that and he barely played.

Zenogias

January 13th, 2017 at 3:54 PM ^

I mean: no one should feel comfortable predicting Michigan to win by eight, but (as with the Maryland game) the reason the line is so large is that the game is at home. Kenpom predictions appropriately include a large homecourt adjustment, because that's usually how things work.

Anyway, we could really use a good win, if only so we can feel good about *something* basketball related for a few days. Hope KenPom is right.

Steves_Wolverines

January 13th, 2017 at 3:46 PM ^

My high expectations for this season have evaporated.

I'll eat my crow. I predicted a top 3 finish in the B1G, the senior duo of Walton and Irvin would destroy all challengers, and Michigan would be looking at a possible B1G regular season, BTT, and Final Four type season.

Just making the NCAAT would be a giant overachievement for this squad. 

This downward trajectory is demoralizing; it's showing in the players, the coaches, and the fans. If the culture of this team doesn't change, then I think we need to look for a new voice to take over this program. 

ijohnb

January 13th, 2017 at 4:05 PM ^

comes out to a quick 6 point lead with a couple of 3 pointers and a transition layup that should be a dunk.

Alarm bells begin ringing after a couple of Nebraska easy baskets and Wagner picks up a second foul. 

Walton misses 2-4 open 3 pointers, Nebraska gets a couple of baskets in transition.  Leads by 4.  Extends lead to 9 after Michigan gets very cold from deep.

Duncan Robinson gets hot, make a couple of threes before half to keep it from being lopsided at the intermission.

Michigan comes out and again looks to assert control, Irvin becomes more assertive, make a couple of mid-range jumpers to get the crowd "energized."

The easy baskets become too much.  We go cold from outside.  Players look frustrated, dejected, those that aren't graduating soon look like they want to transfer.

Nebrasketball 78-69.

atroia21

January 13th, 2017 at 4:50 PM ^

This season has been an utter disappointment. The fact of the matter is is Walton is not good and neither is Irvin. They don't play any D. They have no post game and often go really cold from 3. I'm going to keep watching but I will not invest any emotions to this lifeless program. Coach needs to get some players and fast. These guys are all misses in recruiting. MSU football=UM basketball. Both programs hit on some underrated talent and prospered. Now both are regressing to the mean. I'll end this post with a final thought. Please at least try and draw some fouls if the shots are not falling. This team needs to get to the line more. Go Blue




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DMill2782

January 13th, 2017 at 4:51 PM ^

should get on the phone with Juwan Howard. He's basically been a coach for the Heat since the 2011-12 season. Offiicialy he's been an assistant since 2013. I seriously doubt we'd have any lifeless, soft ass teams with him as head coach.

DMill2782

January 13th, 2017 at 7:35 PM ^

I do believe Juwan could be an excellent recruiter. That's why I'd like him as our coach. Guy grew up in the hardest area of Chicago and graduated from Michigan in three years. He can sell the NBA dream and the college graduate dream and back it up with ease.

Part of this is a bit of personal bias because I love Juwan. He is the epitome of everything you'd ever want in a Wolverine.

Pepto Bismol

January 14th, 2017 at 11:06 AM ^

You're not wrong, but this is where Michigan Basketball can take advantage of being Michigan Basketball. 

At the end of Lloyd Carr's run, the writing was on the wall that he was done.  Before 2006 took off, people were already throwing around potential replacements.  Jim Harbaugh's name was mentioned as he was coaching at San Diego, but everyone universally and unanimously agreed that there's no way you can turn over MICHIGAN FOOTBALL to a guy as inexperienced as Harbaugh. 

Michigan hoops can take that chance though.  All you have to do is look around Crisler, or read the steadfast "At least he's not Ellerbe!" Beilein defense.  People don't really care about Michigan Basketball.  You can put Howard in there and at the very least you'll have a rousing revival of the Fab 5 dancing in our heads for a year.  Maybe he turns out to be a good coach.  That's all that this fanbase seems to need out of the basketball team anyway - "Just don't embarrass us between football seasons".  Or maybe you bring home another Harbaugh.

 

Sure, take a hail mary at your favorite big names - Brad Stevens, Gregg Popovich, Dean Smith, etc.  Maybe you get lucky.  But when you don't, give it to Howard.  Michigan Basketball would be a helluva lot of fun again. 

 

(I acknowledge that this is all subject to getting rid of Beilein who isn't going anywhere because Hackett gave him an insane contract with a hilarious buyout.)

Wolverine Devotee

January 13th, 2017 at 7:09 PM ^

Kenpom's predictions are hot garbage.

We were favored by 7 against Maryland at home. 

How anyone could favor us in any game until we show signs of life again is beyond me, but computerz.

bronxblue

January 13th, 2017 at 10:22 PM ^

If the team comes out inspired and plays competent defense at home, then this season probably isn't lost.  The defense has been bad, but both Illinois and Maryland shot over 60% from 3, which seems like an aberration regardless of how the guys trying to stop you are playing.  And Nebraska isn't obviously a particularly good team from outside.  So if UM can keep that part of their game to a reasonable number, they can win this game.  But if they lose, I'm not looking forward to the next couple of months.