Hoops Preview: Nebraska, Part Two Comment Count

Ace

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT #27 Michigan (19-11, 9-8 B1G) at

#94 Nebraska (12-17, 6-11)
WHERE Pinnacle Bank Arena

Lincoln, Nebraska
WHEN 8 pm ET, Sunday
LINE Michigan -4 (KenPom)

Michigan -5 (Vegas)
TV BTN

PBP: Kevin Kugler

Analyst: Shon Morris

Right: Nobody played much defense in the first matchup. [Marc-Gregor Campredon/MGoBlog]

THE US

On the last day of the regular season, there's still plenty to be determined regarding Big Ten Tournament seeding. The other two games to keep an eye on today are Iowa-PSU (1 pm, BTN) and Purdue-Northwestern (4:30 pm, CBS). Michigan may very well be locked into the eight-seed by the time tonight's game tips off, but there's a chance they can move up as high as the six-seed:

8. Michigan (9-8)

Locked into single bye, will play on Thursday no matter what

Clinches #6 seed with win at Nebraska + Northwestern win + Iowa loss

Clinches #7 seed with win + Northwestern loss + Iowa loss

Clinches #8 seed with loss OR Iowa win 

As for the NCAA Tournament picture, Michigan is holding onto a nine-seed on most projections, including Jerry Palm's and Joe Lunardi's, and they're an eight-seed on Crashing The Dance. ESPN's Eamonn Brennan is on the verge of moving the Wolverines into lock territory:

We thought about locking in the Spartans and the Wolverines alongside Northwestern, but where the Wildcats have just a home date against Purdue left on their regular-season schedule -- plus a guaranteed 10-8 conference record even if they lose -- Michigan travels to Nebraska for its regular-season closer Sunday. A loss would add another sub-top-50 loss to the Wolverines' resume, as well as set them back to 9-9 in league play. Again: Michigan should be in. It almost certainly will get in. But we're just, you know, being careful.

Win and they're in. Lose and they're probably still in, especially since Illinois is locked into the BTT nine-seed; Bart Torvik's BTT simulator says Michigan would have a 70% chance of winning that 8/9 matchup.

THE LAST TIME

In the first game after the Illinois debacle and subsequent players-only meeting, Michigan didn't exactly fix their defense, but they came out on top anyway in a 91-85 shootout at Crisler. Moe Wagner, Derrick Walton, and Zak Irvin all scored 20+ for Michigan, while Tai Webster (28) and Glynn Watson (22) shouldered the load for the Huskers. Notably, Nebraska was missing forward Ed Morrow due to a foot injury; he's been back in the lineup for the last six games.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos. # Name Yr. Ht./Wt. %Min %Poss ORtg SIBMIHHAT
G 5 Glynn Watson So. 6'0, 175 78 21 110 Not At All
Excellent three-point and free-throw shooter, not a great finisher.
G 0 Tai Webster Sr. 6'4, 195 87 28 102 Not really
Big, aggressive point guard shoots 47/30/75 with high FT rate.  
G 11 Evan Taylor Jr. 6'5, 206 60 13 91 Very
Inefficient, low-usage scorer with high turnover rate. Defensive specialist.
F 12 Michael Jacobson So. 6'9, 230 62 16 101 Very
Good offensive rebounder, poor finisher, disruptive defender.
C 32 Jordy Tshimanga Fr. 6'11, 275 30 27 86 Very
Big impact on boards, has a ways to go on offense. Frequently in foul trouble.
F 10 Jack McVeigh So. 6'8, 215 55 15 108 No
Stretch four type shooting 38% on threes in B1G play.
F 30 Ed Morrow So. 6'7, 234 44 23 101 Very
Good rebounder and shot-blocker. Inconsistent finisher since injury.
F 15 Isaiah Roby Fr. 6'8, 214 35 17 82 Very
Good shot-blocker, really struggling on offense.
F 2 Jeriah Horne Fr. 6'7, 222 26 19 98 Not really
Just A Shooter™ type is making 33% of threes, 47% of twos.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

After a 3-0 start in the Big Ten, Nebraska has gone 3-11 with just a 2-5 mark at home during that stretch. They're a tough team to figure out: one of those wins was over Purdue and they took Wisconsin to overtime before falling by one; they also lost to Illinois by 16 in their most recent home game.

This team leans heavily on the backcourt pairing of Tai Webster and Glynn Watson. Both thrived in the first matchup as Michigan looked incapable of defending the pick-and-roll. Webster, an iffy outside shooter, is more liable to go all the way to the basket, while Watson is more of a perimeter-oriented sharpshooter. Evan Taylor rounds out the starting backcourt; he's a defensive specialist who's mostly absent from the offense and not very effective when he does get involved on that end.

The rest of the team is rather unremarkable. Sophomore forward Ed Morrow's absense loomed large over the first matchup but he hasn't been very effective since his return from a foot injury, going 19/44 from the field with 13 turnovers and only one block in the last six games. While he's rebounding well, he seems to be lacking some of his pre-injury explosiveness.

Morrow, in fact, has been coming off the bench, ceding his starting spot to big man Jordy Tshimanga. The 6'11, 275-pound freshman has the rebounding numbers to match his stature, but he's still developing the rest of his game; he's shooting 44% from the field and 60% from the line with elevated turnover and foul rates.

The remainder of the rotation is a pile of forwards. Michael Jacobson, who starts at the four and can play the five in a pinch, is another good rebounder who struggles to score with efficiency. Jack McVeigh and Jeriah Horne are both perimeter-oriented scorers off the bench; McVeigh is the more accurate shooter. Isaiah Roby is an impactful rim protector but poor shooting and a 35% turnover rate makes it tough for him to stay on the floor.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.



Four Factors explanation

Nebraska is not a strong shooting team. They're 13th in the conference in two-point percentage and eighth in three-point percentage on the second-lowest rate of attempts. For a team that takes so many of their shots inside the arc, they rarely get to the line, and they don't shoot particularly well from there either. Offensive rebounding is their lone strength on that end.

The defense, which held strong through nonconference play, has been bombed from the perimeter by Big Ten teams, which are making 41.7% of their threes against the Huskers. They're third in the conference in steals and mediocre in just about every other defensive category.

THE KEYS

Improved pick-and-roll defense. Nebraska scored 1.21 points per possession in the first matchup, and the primary driver of that offensive performance was the pick-and-roll. Michigan did a terrible job of containing Webster, who went 11-for-17 on two-pointers and dished out four assists, albeit with five turnovers. Michigan's defensive renaissance began after that game; they should do a better job of keeping Webster away from the hoop, and also preventing Watson from stepping into open threes off the same action.

Keep the rebounding even. Nebraska is heavily reliant on second-chance opportunities to keep their offense going. It can be difficult to box out across the board against an opponent that causes so much rotation with the pick-and-roll. Michigan has to find a way to not only contain the guards but make sure they recover once the shot goes up

Pick, pop, repeat. The Huskers had no answer for the pick-and-pop the last time around; Moe Wagner went 4-for-6 on three-pointers and DJ Wilson hit 3-of-4. With the ponderous Tshimanga getting more minutes, that should continue to be an effective play against Nebraska.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 4.

Michigan and Nebraska have both been tough teams to predict this year, but the advantage goes to the Wolverines because of their decided edge in the shooting department.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Dylan with a deep dive into some encouraging numbers for M's hopes of making a postseason run.

Comments

ijohnb

March 5th, 2017 at 2:05 PM ^

is not that far fetched. The Illinois loss played a trick on us. It seemed like a good thing at the time but Iowa is now closing fast and that is likely who we will play in the BTT (in my opinion a much tougher draw than Illinois). The last few days of basketball have been unkind to Michigan in terms of just backing in. We really need to win tonight.

In reply to by ijohnb

TrueBlue2003

March 5th, 2017 at 2:58 PM ^

there was zero chance we could have played Iowa going into today, and they've taken care of business to grab the 7 seed.  We have the 8 and will play Illinois no matter what happens tonight.

A win tonight locks us into the tourney and makes the BTT solely about seeding.  A loss and things get slightly more nerve-wracking for Thursday. 

bronxblue

March 5th, 2017 at 2:14 PM ^

I don't get the argument that Northwestern is a lock (current #47 in RPI) but Michigan and MSU are not (#'s 48 and 49).  They are all virtually identical, and I'd argue Michigan is playing the best of the 3 considering they are 5-2 with their two losses are both on the road by a combined 7 points.

Win and you're in, and I think Nebraska is a good match-up to achieve that.

TrueBlue2003

March 5th, 2017 at 3:25 PM ^

the best of the three but the committee doesn't use the "eye test" as much as determining the most "deserving" based on W-L results.

If we lose to Neb we'll drop into the 50s, further than NW will drop if they lose to Purdue.  NW beat us head-to-head.  They'll be 10-10 vs RPI top 100 even with a loss to Purdue. We'd be 10-12 with a loss to Nebraska (Furman losing yesterday hurt). They have five road wins including one against a tourney team (Wisconsin).  We'll have three at most with none against tourney teams.  NW has a better resume right now, regardless of results and they can't drop too badly the rest of the way.

MSU is 11-12 against the top 100 with a bad loss to Northeastern which probably puts them behind NW despite the home head-to-head win.

Brennan also admits the three teams are extremely close and was tempted to lock us and MSU in.  It's splitting hairs at this point, but we can do more damage to our resume by losing to Nebraska.

WolverineHistorian

March 5th, 2017 at 2:44 PM ^

The game at Crisler was ugly. Nebraska scored at will against us, we just outlasted them in the final minute. Kind of scary to think that they were without their forward in that game yet still had the success they did.

We've played better since that game and Nebraska has played worse (if their record is any indication) but we've seen how we look on the road. Nebraska is capable of doing what Rutgers did yesterday.

autodrip4-1968

March 5th, 2017 at 2:51 PM ^

No doubt these Cornhusker's will be ready. Road game's are going to be a battle. Eight o'clock night game on a Sunday? Stupid.Defense is improved since prior meeting with Nebraska. Should win. Need to win. Go Blue!!!!

snarling wolverine

March 5th, 2017 at 3:09 PM ^

Ah, the Big Ten, so full of concern for the well-being of its student-athletes.  Totally normal to ask guys to play a game that will end around 10 p.m. Eastern, then fly home to Ann Arbor, probably fall asleep sometime in the early morning hours, and then go to class for a couple of days (surely they'll be wide-eyed and focused in class tomorrow) before flying to D.C. for a tournament that could take four days.

ricosuave

March 5th, 2017 at 4:57 PM ^

Prediction on the unpredictable:

-Road game

-Nebraska has nothing to lose. Will be fired up and loose. (Excellent basketball combination)

-Last home game for them...raucous crowd comes out against despised Michigan

-M possibly still hurting a bit from the sting of the fighting purple eaters



Nebraska 81 Michigan 66

Mongo

March 5th, 2017 at 7:22 PM ^

The Doberman is coming tonight flashing them flesh slashing canines! Let's go Michigan, finish strong!!!