THE ESSENTIALS

Right: LOOK OUT, FRAN. [Bryan Fuller]

THE US

Hey, everyone! Look! It's basketball! Which is not football! Hooray basketball!

Michigan re-starts Big Ten play on the road at Iowa back at full strength; while he looked rusty, Moe Wagner got through 20 minutes against Jacksonville on Saturday without issue. They have a great chance to tally an early conference road win against a young Hawkeye team off to a rough start.

Given the generally woeful state of the conference beyond Michigan State and Purdue, that could jump-start a run for the #3 seed. After the two Big Ten powers, Michigan ranks behind only Maryland, which is now down NBA prospect Justin Jackson (and reserve Ivan Bender) for the season.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Iowa is off to a rough 9-6 start that wasn't too hard to see coming. They lost star wing Peter Jok, who took on a massive offensive load for a mediocre team last season, and haven't found a suitable replacement. Fran McCaffrey's squad is one of the youngest in the country and don't have much to lean on other than height.

Point guard Jordan Bohannon is the closest thing the Hawkeyes have to a perimeter creator. He's an excellent outside shooter capable of making threes off the dribble. He's undersized, however, and doesn't present a threat inside the arc; he mostly sticks to the perimeter, which limits his playmaking ability. He's joined in the backcourt by sophomore Isaiah Moss, a bit of an offensive black hole who's a good, not great, scorer who's probably being pushed into a big role too soon—he's much more efficient as a spot-up option.

Then there's a bunch of big dudes. The tallest, 6'11" freshman Jack Nunge, is actually the nominal three because 6'7" stretch four type Nicholas Baer is the superior rebounder; both are very active defenders who block shots and disrupt passes. Center Tyler Cook is a very good offensive rebounder who scores mostly on post-ups, putbacks, and free throws; he draws a ton of fouls, so Moe Wagner will have to be careful out there.

6'11" sixth man Luka Garza plays close to starter's minutes and is the best of the bunch statistically, scoring with efficiency on the interior while posting top-100 rebounding and block rates. The Hawkeyes do boast a couple solid outside shooting threats, Maishe Dailey and Brady Ellingson, as reserve guards.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

Iowa really tries to ratchet up the pace on offense. They're 31st nationally in average possession length, choosing to run when they get the opportunity. That's gone well against poor competition and quite poorly against good competition; the Hawkeyes have yet to tally a top-100 KenPom win. In their two Big Ten games, losses to Penn State and Indiana, they're turning the ball over on a quarter of their possessions. They're at their best in transition or going through the post, though the latter is a problem if they get fouled; they've had similar issues at the line as Michigan.

The defense has been porous, ranking below 100th nationally. While they block a lot of shots, they don't force many turnovers at all, and they were lit up from the perimeter by Penn State and Indiana. They block a lot of shots—no surprise considering their height—so expect a fair amount of drive-and-kick from Michigan.

THE KEYS

Don't get Cooked. Center Tyler Cook is Iowa's most reliable offensive option. He also gets opponents into foul trouble regularly. That'd be particularly bad for Michigan in this game, as Moe Wagner is needed to space the Iowa defense that's much stronger on the interior than the perimeter. Depending on Iowa's lineups, Michigan should be able to send help Wagner's way; the Hawkeyes don't have a ton of shooters.

Run Bohannon off the line. Force the little dude with a great outside shot to work amongst the trees, please. He's making under 40% of his twos this year with an elevated 19% turnover rate.

Go through Matthews and MAAR. Iowa has only one good wing defender (Baer) and three that grade out as average at best (Moss, Nunge, Garza). That should give Michigan a good primary option no matter how Iowa decides to approach matchups. Matthews and MAAR should be able to get to the basket, and if they can't get shots up, they'll at least have collapsed the Hawkeye defense to open up the arc. 

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 2.

Iowa already has a home conference loss to Penn State. Michigan's superior guard play should make it two.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview.