Hoops Preview 2015-16: Wings, Part II
Previously: Hoops Preview Podcast, MGoRadio 1.6 (wsg John Gasaway), Point Guards, Wings Part I (LeVert, Dawkins, Irvin)
Kam Chatman only showed flashes of his four-star ability in 2014-15.
Michigan is deeper this season than at any point during John Beilein's tenure. There's so much depth, in fact, that there's a decent chance at least one of last season's regular contributors drops out of the rotation.
Today's preview post focuses on that depth by looking at backup wings Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Kameron Chatman, Duncan Robinson, and Moritz Wagner. DJ Wilson, who could easily fit into this category, will be covered with the bigs.
Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog
Year: Sophomore
Measurables: 6'4", 185
Base Stats: 19.0 MPG, 4.4 PPG, 49/29/93 2P/3P/FT%, 1.7 RPG, 27 assists, 28 turnovers
Key Advanced Metrics: 16.5% usage, 92.5 ORating, 1.9 steal %
"Rahk" wasn't expected to be a contributor last season after John Beilein picked him up late in the recruiting cycle. When injuries forced him onto the floor for extended minutes in Big Ten season, however, he emerged as a quality scorer off the dribble—after looking jittery early in the season, he shot 54% on two-pointers in conference play.
Rahkman's rise to a prominent role was critical for Michigan in 2014-15, especially when he took on the scoring burden against Michigan State and Illinois, and even more so when he shadowed D'Angelo Russell in M's upset of Ohio State—Russell needed 17 shot equivalents to score 16 points, had five turnovers against two assists, and looked visibly frustrated with Rahk's defense. John Beilein pointed to defense as the way Rahkman can see extended time on the court this season:
“We haven’t even discussed any redshirt possibilities. Muhammad is not of a young age number one, but he’s got his work cut out for him to get the minutes that he did last year and he knows it. He has some explosion to his game and some speed that we do need on this team. That’s all going to come if he can become an excellent defender on this team then there will always be minutes for him.”
That's in part because Michigan could use a perimeter defensive stopper; it's also in part because there are still significant holes in Rahkman's overall game. He shot 29% from three-point range as a freshman, a figure that must improve to keep from affecting Michigan's spacing. He finished with more turnovers than assists; while he wasn't overly turnover-prone, when he drove to the basket he almost always looked for his own shot, and opponents are going to adjust to that. There's reason to think he can improve in both regards; his impressive free-throw shooting (albeit in a small sample) is a sign his jump shot should come around and he looked confident as a ballhandler last year.
The great news for Michigan is that there isn't nearly as much of a need for Rahk to play big minutes with the return of Walton and LeVert; there won't be minutes to spare at the point and there's a ton of depth on the wing. Rahkman may carve out a role as a defensive specialist or off-the-bench scorer against teams that struggle to stop dribble penetration; anything else he provides would be considered a bonus. He should be a solid role player getting 10-15 minutes; the breakout most likely will have to wait until next year.
[Hit THE JUMP.]
Kameron Chatman
Fuller
Year: Sophomore
Measurables: 6'8", 215
Base Stats: 15.2 MPG, 3.6 PPG, 36/26/68 2P/3P/FT%, 2.5 RPG
Key Advanced Metrics: 21.2% usage, 80.5 ORating, 16.5 DR%, 1.3 block %
It's safe to say 2014-15 didn't go as planned for Chatman, who chose Michigan over Arizona as a top-30 overall prospect coming out of high school. After struggling mightily to find his niche in the offense—and his jumper—he was in and out of the main rotation during conference play, and a couple promising performances late in the season weren't enough to wipe away the memories of too many corner threes badly missing the mark.
The shot chart from last year is ugly (via ShotAnalytics):
In that chart, though, you can see signs of life, namely in the left corner—if Chatman can become a reliable threat from even that one spot, it's possible he can function in Michigan's offense and allow Beilein to put him out there to give the team more size and rebounding. Chatman was one of the better defensive rebounders on the team last year and with his big frame and long arms he's got the potential to be an impact player on the boards. While he got caught last year trying to make too much happen at times, he can also be an impressive passer when he's seeing the floor well.
For Chatman to see major minutes, however, he needs to make major improvements in multiple areas. From what I saw of him at the media open practice, the mechanics of his jumper are improved, and hopefully that translates to his field goal percentage. Even though it's early, this may be an all-or-nothing year for Chatman; either he has a mini-breakout and becomes an important piece of the rotation or he gets passed by younger players—once that happens, it's tough to edge back out in front.
Duncan Robinson
Robinson should go from Bench Mob member to critical rotation piece. [Fuller]
Year: Redshirt sophomore
Measurables: 6'8", 210
Robinson sat out last season after making the unheard-of leap from Division III Williams College to Michigan. His legend grew while he watched games in street clothes due to his practice exploits; Robinson has been busy breaking Nik Stauskas' practice shooting records, and that shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who's seen him shoot. Robinson is a dead-eye outside shooter—as the primary option at Williams as a freshman, he nailed 46% of his triples on his way to being named D3 Freshman of the Year.
While the competition level takes a major step up, the rim remains ten feet above the ground, and the three-point arc is still 20'9" from the hoop. Robinson's shooting ability alone will get him on the floor this year, which gives us tantalizing possibilities of a 6'8" version of Jon Diebler raining in open looks provided by LeVert, Irvin, Walton, et al. At worst, he should be instant offense off the bench.
What else he can provide is, for now, a mystery. Robinson's defensive matchup will most likely be dictated by the opponent; more specifically, it'll be dictated by where he can be trusted on defense while he gets used to the higher level of play. Robinson was an excellent rebounder at Williams, so there's some hope he can hold up if he's asked to play some minutes at the four, but it seems more likely Beilein will pick his spots putting Williams out there at the two or the three against less-dangerous perimeter threats.
If Robinson proves capable of handling a big minutes load while holding up on both ends of the floor, his shooting can take this offense to the next level. That's a huge if, of course, but at the very least Robinson should provide occasional fireworks as a valuable bench option.
Moritz Wagner
Year: Freshman
Measurables: 6'10", 225
The freshman from Germany could be a contributor at the four or the five, and according to Beilein he's been practicing at both spots. Wagner would be a very skilled big, boasting three-point range and the ability to take players off the dribble.
Even with help from Jon Sanderson, though, Wagner is still quite skinny, and there's a significant adjustment process for any freshman, let a lone a kid coming over from across the Atlantic. It's not hard to read this Beilein quote...
“We’re trying to teach him two positions. You’ll see him today a little bit. At 6-foot-10 and a half he can play in the middle just hasn’t shown that physical ability to rebound – yet. He will. He’s really a talented young man. You’re going to see a moment here ‘wow that was awkward’ and then ‘oh my goodness did he just do that at 6-foot-10.5.’ Just enjoy it, I don’t know when it’s going to come around but we just love coaching that kid so much. Especially a kid who is 18 coming from a foreign country and learning the language on the fly.”
...take another look at Michigan's roster, and assume he's a lock to redshirt. Unless injuries hit the team very hard or Wagner somehow puts it all together in a hurry, he looks like a guy we'll maybe see in the exhibition before he's locked in the gym for a year of development.
October 29th, 2015 at 2:03 PM ^
"he gets passed by younger players"
What wings on the roster are younger than Kam?
October 29th, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^
..."players with more eligibility" would've been better phrasing, but that referred to DJ Wilson (especially) and Moritz Wagner (longshot). Wilson should see plenty of time at the five, so I chose to cover him in that post.
October 29th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
I disagree on this being a make or break year for Kam. I'm hoping he sees it as quite the opposite and I hope the rest of the bench does as well.
The facts are that several players that have earned playing time are barely going to see the floor this year. Beilien is going to lean on his veterans this year. Next year Spike, Caris and maybe Irvin may be gone freeing up tons of playing time. If guys are patient they will be in line to get those minutes.
Hopefully we don't see a repeat of the Horford situation where a guy sits and then right before it's his time he transfers and we go from deep to freshmen. I think Kam, Rahk and DJ are all in the same boat. Hang tight, work on your game and be ready to go when your opportunity opens up over the next 2 years.
October 29th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^
The idea that Chatman not playing this year is a long-term problem is based on some dubious assumptions:
- Wagner/Wilson moving from the 5 to the 4 to make way for Teske/Davis (It would be very un-Beilein if this actually happens to both)
- Wagner passing Chatman when he does move to the 4 (Wagner is red-shirting and is not even a year younger than Kam - so there's no guarantee he'll ever pass him)
- Robinson or MAAR (hypothetically) passing Chatman would be repeated even though any of them could slide to the 2 or 3 to replace wing departures and both are older (and presumably less likely to make further improvement).
- That a freshman guard (Watson) would get a wing rotation spot in '16-17 over Kam.
IMO, it's very plausible, maybe even LIKELY, that Chatman could have a marginal role on this very deep team and then take on a much bigger role his junior and senior year.
October 29th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^
That was my thought as well. The numbers crunch is about to get a bit of a relief after this season, I just hope Chatman doesn't feel he's on the outside looking in and does his part to help "relieve" the perceived numbers crunch.
October 31st, 2015 at 3:41 PM ^
I don't think Ace meant Kam needs to play much this year, because like you mention, there are too many minutes that need to go to Caris and Irvin. But if his game doesn't take a big step forward this year, he's probably going to get passed at the four by Wilson or Wagner, or even Robinson, for the minutes that will open up next year.
October 29th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^
will pick his spots putting Williams out there at the two or the three
That should be Robinson, I believe.
Love these previews so far, though.
October 29th, 2015 at 2:26 PM ^
unfortunately, being a lefty the preferred spot for him is on the right side where he shot 0%. wow. if his shot doesn't improve, he minutes will diminish to nothing. the other aspects of his game as a #4 did show promise later in the year; rebounding, ballhandling and passing.
October 29th, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^
I'm a lefty and I always preferred operating on the left side of the court. I couldn't hit a corner three from either corner.
October 29th, 2015 at 3:21 PM ^
not sure what youre taking about - most right handed players prefer shooting from the right side while most left handed players prefer shooting from the left wing.
obviously better players dont really allow it to affect their game and most ballers grow more comfortable shooting from both sides regardless of preference as they age and mature as players.
but bottom line, even many pros feel slightly more comfortable shooting from the same side of court as their dominant hand (and shoot slightly more accurately from dominant side)
October 29th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^
The 3 and 4 spots in Beilein's offense are almost indistinguishable - they start out in the corners and on certain plays they move toward the middle, setting and/or receiving screens. The 3 man will start in the left corner and thus be moving towards his right; the 4 man will start in the right corner and thus be moving towards his left. So if Beilein has two wings, one left-handed and one right-handed, he'll play the righty at the 3 and the lefty at the 4 so that each one will be moving towards his dominant side when he moves towards the middle of the court.
The side effect, though, is that they're most likely to spot up for jumpers in the corners they started out in, and that right corner jumper just didn't fall for Chatman last year. Hopefully it will this year.
October 29th, 2015 at 3:44 PM ^
Your shot is less likely to be blocked when shooting from the strong side of the court, so you should theoretically be more comfortable on that side.
Anyway, sample size...
October 29th, 2015 at 2:32 PM ^
I really think that Kam is either going to be a 20 minutes per game guy or a near bench lock. His talents, similarly in Rahk's situation, are different than any other player on the court. As you can see in that gif above, the guy has the ability to create his own shot and attack the rim at the 4 spot - This is what made him that near 5* player. "The light must go on," as they say. I'm really excited to see what he's capable of this season.
I won't be surprised, however, if guys like Rahk and Robinson take minutes away from him given their clear strengths that at times will be definite needs. Just depends on how far Kam progresses. Beilein isn't going to play 11 guys every game, so I think Kam probably needs to prove his strengths more than others at this point. His strengths do have a higher ceiling than both Rahk and Robinson, however.
October 29th, 2015 at 3:48 PM ^
Mostly agree. I think Kam could start and play 15-20 mpg and be a true "power forward" or at least as close as Beilein gets. I could also see him be buried as the 9th or 10th man on a deep team.
BUT, there is the chance that he plays a specialist/match-up driven role where he is only used against teams with bigger 4s to guard - situationally used when Michigan isn't comfortable with the Dawkins or Irvin matchup tradeoffs.
October 29th, 2015 at 2:46 PM ^
I have faith in Kam. We could've saw a glimpse of good things to come from him with how he played at the end of last season. He didn't compete against the greatest competition in HS and the game should slow down for him this season.
October 29th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^
youre right, he did not play great hs competition and he came in pretty raw. hes likely been able to dominate competition all his life, simply via sheer size or athletic ability, and its a huge change - and obviously many guys struggle when first adjusting to equal or superior competition. brand new ball game when youre no longer the tallest, strongest, fastest, most athletic, etc, plus trying to adjust to classes and college life on the fly and away from home, family, etc.
and thats not even including the mental aspect - if hes thinking on the court, his games handicapped, hes not playing as freely or quickly as possible and thats a necessity at this level.
obviously players often struggle when jumping a level - and obviously why its difficult to determine which players will pan out, as well as at what pace theyll develop and to what degree.
October 29th, 2015 at 3:59 PM ^
There's no reason at all to doubt Kam's character or coachability. He struggled so badly last year that I think people are badly underrating him. The talent that got him that recruiting ranking didn't vanish and you could see plenty of flashes of it. Just has to slow down and simplify and it sounds from all the reports that he is improving significantly.
October 29th, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^
Weird that Chatman would shoot 71% from one corner and 0% in the other. That's a crazy spread. How many total attempts did he have from the left corner?
October 29th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^
Not inclusive.
5/7 = .714285...
Nobody calculates batting averages in their heads anymore, I guess.
October 29th, 2015 at 4:05 PM ^
I knew that. But it also could have been 10/14.
October 29th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^
And he has non-zero percentages from other spots on the floor,
October 29th, 2015 at 5:01 PM ^
See, now you are assuming my laziness level to be lower than it is. I didn't bother looking up how many overall shots he took.
October 29th, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^
that Kam is one of those guys that had a hard time quickly making the leap from high school to college. I expect him to be much improved this year as the game slows down for him and he is more comfortable in Beilein's offense. I really hope that he can earn the bulk of the minutes at the 4, so that we can use Irvin and Dawkins more at the 2 and 3. Would love to see Chatman/Robinson or Chatman/Wilson become a lethel 1-2 punch at the 4.
October 29th, 2015 at 3:29 PM ^
All guesswork at this point so nobody is "right" here but I have a few different ideas from the above.
- MAAR "should be a solid role player getting 10-15 minutes" seems like a stretch. Maybe the soft schedule will give him a bump in minutes, but during conference play there might not be 15 minutes for all the backup wings COMBINED and MAAR's certainly not going to get all of them. It would really take a combination of factors (Robinson being really bad at D, Chatman not improving significantly, Spike or Zak being slow to recover from injury) for Rhak to have a prominent role in the rotation unless he really does develop into that defensive stopper we'd love to see him become (in which case he'd be stealing minutes one of the starters most likely). Keep in mind that MAAR is an older
- I don't get the "make or break" year for Chatman AT ALL. He's young (less than a year seperates him and Wagner), he came in very raw (tiny HS in Oregon), and there's not a better fit for a 4 on the roster if he progresses towards his potential. I know people want to slot Wilson or Wagner at the 4 long term, but it's worth rememering Beilein sat Mitch McGary rather than play him at the 4. Even if the 4-spot gets crowded, Irvin could be headed for the NBA and there's not really another big wing on the way.
- Chatman's potential skills align with what this team needs more of: defense and rebounding. Offensively all he has to do is be a spot-up corner 3 shooter and competant passer. Less is more for him - don't dribble kid. He absolutely can hit in the mid 30s from 3. If he can rebound and defend, he should play...he might even be the best option to start (with Dawkins coming off the bench and finishing games). As I said in the previous post - Kam is the biggest X-factor on the team. If this team is to develop into a national title contender, Kam is the one that they are going to need against bigger frontlines and more athletically gifted opponents. That top-30 recruit talent is still there. His struggles were mental, he was asked to do too much on a struggling team, and I would be shocked to not see him make a sophomore leap.
- Robinson's "shooting can take this offense to the next level." - not seeing how that's true. Even if he hits 45% again (highly unlikely) that's not a huge upgrade from the array of 40% shooters we already have. We don't need more shooting and we certainly don't need it from a guy who doesn't offer much else. Robinson should be considered the top wing backup for now but only because Beilein will be very comfortable putting a shooter into the rotation (and Chatman and MAAR have to prove they have developed.)
October 29th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^
difficult for Rahk to get more that 10 minutes a game and that would likely come from backing up Caris. It could even be less if Chatman makes the leap that many of us expect. That would free up Irvin, Dawkins and Robinson to take all or most of the minutes at the 3 and the backup minutes behind Caris. Rahk is likely the odd man out.
I don't know that any of us can predict too much about Robinson at this point since all we have seen from him is freshman video. Since then, he has bulked up and had over a year of coaching from this staff. I can see Beilein using him anywhere from the 2-4 and likely all of those depending on the opposition. As the coaches say, "You are what you can defend."
October 29th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^
Even if you gave Rhak 10 and Spike plays zero minutes alongside Derrick...that pushes Caris down to 30 mpg. No way you play your best player that few. I guess you can argue he goes back to play minutes at 3, but then it's similarly crowded with Irvin, Dawkins, etc. Unless Rhak is just a HUGE asset on defense there is just no way this happens. His ball-handling and driving are an asset, but if Spike, Derrick, Caris, and Zak have the ball he is a spot-up shooter, and that's not his strength.
It's tough to find 15 mpg for ANY of these guys.
I think they'll all get a shot but one of them is going to emerge as the top wing backup and the others are going to be fringe rotation guys or specialists who are playing around 5 min per game at best by tournament time. The rotation will probably end up around 9 guys but 3 of them will be centers (just due to fouls).
Lets say 15-20 minutes for Spike (probably low) and 30-35 for the big 3, plus 30 more for Dawkins, and then 40 for our 3-headed center...not much left over.
October 29th, 2015 at 5:31 PM ^
While not (yet) a big shooting threat or great distributor, his upside as a lockdown perimeter defender will be a major asset, particularly against opponents that are going to rely heavily on guard play, such as IU.
Also really like Rahkman's ability to drive to the hoop so effectively. Gives Beilein a nice extra wrinkle to add offensively. A slight caveat, though, as mentioned:
...when he drove to the basket he almost always looked for his own shot, and opponents are going to adjust to that.
Hopefully this season MAAR shows some really nice development in terms of vision. His finishing ability will incline defenses to condense as he attacks the paint, so if he can also do a good job of kicking the ball out, that should open up some very nice looks from the corner for our guys that hit the 3-ball on the reg.
October 29th, 2015 at 8:09 PM ^
MAAR's upside as a lockdown defender is tremendous...but Irvin, Dawkins, and LeVerts upside is NBA 1st rounder. Chatman's upside as a collegiate version of Lamar Odom is outstanding. Robinson's upside as Kyle Korver is crazy. Which of these are more realistic/unrealistic all depends on how guys have developed.
MAAR's got a lot of areas to improve, just as Chatman does. MAAR was a better player last year and better fit last year's team's needs. But now the roster is so different it's not clear that will hold. Chatman's younger and has more raw talent and better fits the roster needs. Robinson is more unknown but possesses a skillset Beilein loves and knows how to apply.
If Michigan is going to play it's best guys optimally, the starters should be playing close to 35 minutes a game. That leaves 15 minutes combined on the wing for MAAR, Robinson, Chatman and anyone else with interest in playing the 2-4 for this team.
Realistically it's probably more like 20-25 minutes of time due to foul trouble injury, etc, but that's still not much for 3 guys. Someone is going to get squeezed out. IMO, Rhak's the most likely guy to get pushed to the end of the bench this year. Doesn't mean he won't be a critical piece the following year though...
October 29th, 2015 at 5:31 PM ^
I'm a Williams grad that grew up in Ypsi (so yeah, huge UM fan). I think fans are going to be very pleased with Duncan once he settles in. I watched him (and other Ephs) play almost as closely as I have the Wolverines over the last few years and will comfortably say that he is going to be a great contributor on this team.
October 29th, 2015 at 9:17 PM ^
October 29th, 2015 at 10:15 PM ^
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October 30th, 2015 at 7:20 AM ^
The four vets will probably be on the court together a good amount, especially in close/late situations. So I'd take the under on Dawkins getting 30.
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October 30th, 2015 at 8:31 AM ^
JB says he doesn't want Walton and Spike on the floor together a lot. Really hard to pencil Spike in at 20 mpg or more.
October 29th, 2015 at 9:51 PM ^
we could have a seriously good team if some of these kids make that jump. On paper they look really really good.
October 30th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
MAAR was so much better than Chatman last year that I see little chance of Chatman ever catching up. I suppose there are stats somewhere to back this up.
October 30th, 2015 at 4:43 PM ^
MAAR is also 2 years older. Kam has more potential.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:38 PM ^
They both made the jump from HS to college last year. One immediately became a force, more than holding his own against Ohio State and Michigan State. The other was perhaps the worst player I've ever seen on a Michigan team, and justly had his role diminished throughout the course of the year.
I hope Chatman improves. But, boy, does he have a long way to go to get to MAAR territory.
October 31st, 2015 at 5:36 PM ^
If Johnny B can work his Beilein magic this could be his best team. Bring on Kentucky or Louisville in the tournament. Living in Kentucky, I'm tired of hearing about how we lost to both of those jokers.
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