Hoops Preview 2015-16: Point Guards Comment Count

Ace

Previously: Hoops Preview Podcast, MGoRadio 1.6 (wsg John Gasaway)


This was sorely missed last year.

Basketball season is nearly upon us. Unlike previous years, it isn't a much-needed respite from a miserable football campaign, and instead should serve as a delightful second helping of good sports feels as we head into the winter.

As Michigan learned the hard way in 2014-15, it all starts with the point guard in John Beilein's system. Derrick Walton is healthy again after a foot injury derailed and then prematurely ended his sophomore season; now he's poised for the patented LaVall Jordan second-year leap a year later than expected. Spike Albrecht is recovering from surgery on his hips but should be a full go early in the season, giving the Wolverines a starter-quality backup.

This is where the turnaround starts.

[Hit THE JUMP.]

Derrick Walton


Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog

Year: Junior
Measurables: 6'1", 190
Base Stats: 33.3 MPG, 10.7 PPG, 32/34/82 2P/3P/FT%, 57 assists, 35 turnovers
Key Advanced Metrics: 21.4% usage, 98.1 ORating, 18.8 assist rate, 17.6 turnover rate, 16.7 defensive rebound percentage

I just listed a bunch of Walton's sophomore statistics, which you can now ignore, because the foot injury that ultimately ended his season plagued him throughout 2014-15. One of Walton's best attributes—his ability to get to the hoop and finish strong—was taken away by the injury, rendering much of his offensive game ineffective.

That shouldn't be the case this year. Walton looked to be on the path to stardom after his freshman year, when he proved an excellent complement to the scoring duo of Stauskas and LeVert, able to drill spot-up jumpers and efficiently run the pick-and-roll when called upon. His inability to do the latter last season was a product of injury, not regression, and Walton should be even better attacking the basket as an upperclassman.

A healthy Walton should also be a boon to Michigan's transition offense; 35% of his freshman-year assists came on the fast break. That number could go even higher given the area of Walton's game that took a big leap forward his sophomore year: defensive rebounding. Yes, really. Especially when Ricky Doyle manned the center position, Michigan had their bigs focus on boxing out and letting the guards clean up rebounds, and nobody was better at swooping in to clear the glass than Walton, who finished behind only Max Bielfeldt in defensive rebounding rate on the team last year.

Assuming good health for both Walton and the players around him, Michigan's point guard is in line for a breakout season. We've seen it from Darius Morris, Trey Burke, and even Spike Albrecht under the tutelage of Beilein and Jordan, and Walton's talent level is up there with any of them. Lest we forget, this is what his shot chart looked like as a freshman (via ShotAnalytics):

Walton is a dangerous spot-up shooter, which will come into play when Caris LeVert and Zak Irvin are driving the offense, and he's lethal at the top of the key if defenders cheat and go under high screens. Add a solid finishing rate at the hoops that should only improve with added experience and strength and it's tough to find a weak spot for Walton offensively.

While he's still got a ways to go to be a superstar, Walton has all the pieces in place to be an all-conference caliber performer this year, and he'll be a significant upgrade over Albrecht on defense. This site still has the same high expectations for Walton that we had last year before injury struck.

Spike Albrecht


Fuller

Year: Senior
Measurables: 5'11", 175
Base Stats: 32.0 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 45/37/91 2P/3P/FT%, 121 assists, 41 turnovers
Key Advanced Metrics: 15.7% usage, 112.0 ORating, 25.6 assist rate, 17.3 turnover rate

If there was a positive to come out of Walton's injury, it was Albrecht establishing himself as not just a steady hand off the bench, but a legitimate Big Ten-quality starting point guard. We'll get his deficiencies out of the way: Albrecht is undersized, not a great defender, and will never be much of a threat attacking the basket on offense. Being a senior is unlikely to change any of those things, as they're all the product of him being a probably generous 5'11".

As a backup point guard, though, it's hard to ask for much more. Spike still has that killer outside shot—he's a 41% career three-point shooter—and his range extends out to a good 25 feet; there are far worse end-of-clock options than letting him pull up from, well, wherever he's comfortable. Albrecht can drain threes off the bounce or as a spot-up shooter, which gives John Beilein some lineup flexibility if he wants to go small and play both point guards at once—something that shouldn't happen often given the depth on this team, but an option nonetheless.

Albrecht is also dang good at distrubuting the ball. He posted the sixth-best assist rate in the Big Ten last season while taking on a higher usage than at any other point in his career; that he also managed to improve his shooting inside the arc and get to the free-throw line more often in the process is a very encouraging sign. Spike's oddball drives may finish in granny-style scoop shots, but those have become surprisingly effective.

While he'll always have his shortcomings as an on-the-ball defender, Albrecht has a knack for jumping passing lanes and turning timely steals into instant offense. He should be among the best backup point guards in the country, and if injury strikes, he won't look at all out of place in the starting lineup.

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman should also be mentioned in this space as a potential backup point guard; he could be utilized in that role as a defensive stopper in certain situations. He'll be covered in much more detail later this week when the preview moves on to the wings.

Meanwhile, Walton should easily play 25-30 minutes per game, and Albrecht should absorb whatever minutes Walton isn't playing at the point and a few more here and there when one of them moves off the ball. Michigan has two excellent, experienced options at the point. Walton's return to full health is right up there with LeVert's return from injury in importance to this team's success.

Comments

Lanknows

October 27th, 2015 at 1:47 PM ^

But that's partially conjecture because, while MAAR did show flashes on D, he wasn't a consistent force. 

As Beilein said, that's MAAR's route to playing time if he improves and embraces that role...but even if he does, realistically, when have you known Beilein to choose a defensive-oriented player over a shooter (like Dawkins or Robinson)?

I completely agree Michigan needs a D-oriented role player in the rotation to complement all that offensive firepower, I just think it's more likely to come in the frontcourt than at the expense of our top 5 returning players (Levert, Walton, Irvin, Albrecht) who are all guards/wings that would be sitting on the bench in order for MAAR to play more.

TrueBlue2003

October 27th, 2015 at 6:31 PM ^

on the recruiting trail. And he usually (always?) chooses the shooter (and the shooter chooses him).  Which is why MAAR as defensive stopper will probably only be a situational sub.  Freshman Caris was a defensive situational guy on a team with a lot of other options so that's the best comparison for MAARs role until his shooting improves. 

Lanknows

October 27th, 2015 at 7:30 PM ^

Get your point (that we haven't had a lot of lock-down defenders) but clearly Beilein is willing to play some very very bad defensive players to get what they want on offense. 

  • Albrecht over almost any scholarship player.
  • Dawkins over Rahkman last year.
  • Stauskas or Vogrich over Okunne.
  • Novak over Horford or another big.

The entire system is a trade-off of defense for offense.  Michigan would have been a lot better defensively with a frontline rotation of Horford/Morgan/McGary and GR3 at the 3, but that's not how Beilein rolls. Beyond the recruiting emphasis noted above, Michigan/Beilein systematically prioritizes offense over defense.

Note this is not a critique, just an observation of the obvious.  Michigan thinks it can get more than it gives away by playing smaller shooters on the wing.  I don't think they are wrong and that's the trajectory of basketball over the last decade to emphasize shooting, passing, and spacing over size, strength, and raw one-on-one athleticism.

UM Fan from Sydney

October 27th, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^

Here's hoping Michigan can become a powerhouse for both basketball and football simultaneously. Thankfully we have two great head coaches.

Lanknows

October 27th, 2015 at 1:49 PM ^

Should happen regularly, if for no other reason than that Michigan's crunch time offensive lineup should include it's 5 best offensive players, and that includes Spike and Derrick, both.  That and there's just flat-out not enough minutes for Spike to play if he is limited to being Walton's backup.  Walton's going to play north of 30 mpg and Spike's going to play more than 10 mpg, so those minutes have to come from the 2G spot.

Not sure there's a better 1-2 PG punch in the country.

Lanknows

October 27th, 2015 at 7:14 PM ^

It's not about "need" - you want your best players to play. Spike is probably better than Robinson, Chatman, MAAR and other guys filling out the back of the rotation. Playing a guy like Spike 5-7 mpg is sort of insane. Yes, he can shoot, but he can also pass and create opportunities for other.  He's also, as Ace noted, a decent source of steals.

If there's 3 minutes left and you're down 5 to MSU -- I seriously doubt you're sitting Spike or Derrick in that situation.  And you don't want it to be the first time they've played beside each other all year.  I love Dawkins, but I think in a lot of situations the crunch time lineup has to include Spike.

matty blue

October 27th, 2015 at 1:42 PM ^

...if walton is not at least second-team all-conference.  ferrell may beat him out, but i expect them to play to at worst a dead heat when they face each other.

i love our coaching staff, by the way.  how many staffs could have turned a slow, small "just a shooter" into a bonafide big ten point guard?  not many.

screw linebacker u.  this is point guard u.

getsome

October 27th, 2015 at 7:08 PM ^

lets hope its pg u - i agree w comments re beilein and staffs ability to id and develop less heralded type players - the futures just very uncertain at PG.  

to my knowledge theyve only recruited 1 primary ball handler to replace walton and albrect so PG could be a real issue next year (and beyond) unless rahkman develops into legit ball handler who can run point for 20-30 minutes if necessary.

i wish i could suggest other combo guard guys as options to hopefully develop pg / ball handler / facilitator skills and abilities bc the team could use them (unless im missing someone or forgot a recruit) - but all i see are simpson and rahkman next year (dawkins cant do it) and then watson and poole in the pipeline.  

i love beilein and obviously trust his instincts and vision (just look at his record so far) but they dont want to get into another situation where theyre relying on dakich and similar type players to play pg for 20-30 mins in conference games

AC1997

October 27th, 2015 at 1:58 PM ^

By the end of last season the team was fun to watch again, after being a trainwreck at the beginning.  I didn't want to see the season end with that Wisconsin game because the development of MAAR, Dawkins, Irvin, and Doyle had been so much fun to see.  

 

But I have to admit that I'm more nervous about this season than what I read from Brian and Ace.  The problem is that none of us knows what to do with the first part of last season.  These previews that tout the development of Walton, the star power of Levert, the progress of Irvin, camp Sanderson's effect on the bigs, or what Dawkins could become are not too far off from the exact things we said last year.  All of the previews last year talked about a modest step back while we waited for the bigs to figure it out......only to have us go on a horrific losing streak while Walton and Levert were still playing portions of those games.  

 

I'd like to believe that the progress we saw by the end of the season combined with the health of the starting back-court means we're once again a contender.  But I do still expect some bumpy roads while we figure out just how good each of these guys really are and what their roles should be.  

Lanknows

October 27th, 2015 at 2:45 PM ^

It's not clear if Michigan will be more or less than the "sum of the parts". Just because there are more parts and the sum is bigger doesn't mean we will win more.  But I wouldn't worry too much about last year:

Point 1: Last year was an anomoly.  We lost our 3 top centers and our starting 4 and replaced them with freshman (all of them played in NBA or at least preseason/summer league).  Chatman's recruiting reanking belied how RAW he was coming out of a tiny school in Oregon. Doyle wasn't ready to start and Donnal still wasn't really a center.  When you go from Morgan/McGary/Horford/Robinson to Bielfeldt/Doyle/Chatman, you are going to struggle. 

We put those struggles on Caris (and injuries to our PGs), but the frontcourt losses were the bigger problem.  (As an aside, I think the curious recruitment of both Davis and Teske is Beilein's "never again" response to being so freshman-reliant in the frontcourt.  He's good enough to coach up a freshman guard or wing, but you can't expect centers to come in and bang unless they are McGary-level recruits.)

Point 2: It always takes time to define roles. When Darius left, MIchigan had to transition to a wing-oriented offense (Manny Harris) and then back to a PG-driven offense with Trey. When Trey and Tim left, it took a little while for Nik and Caris to figure out how to distribute the lead-guard duties.  The transition was going to take some time last year, even if everyone had been healthy.  It's going to take some time this year too.  Michigan's never been so deep with talent and ability at guard and wing, so there will be plenty of sorting out to do...but this year, less than in other years, because of what happened last year early in teh season.

Point 3: Defining roles WILL be a huge challenge for this coaching staff, especially in getting people to ACCEPT their more limited roles.  Will Dawkins and Irvin be OK as "just a shooter" again with Caris and Derrick back?  Will MAAR or Chatman accept their path to playing time lies with defense and NOT shooting?  Will Caris and Derrick be patient enough after nearly a year off?  Will the centers watch enough Jordan Morgan tape?

Chemistry and having clear roles makes a HUGE difference in team play and that's getting undersold in all the discussions of talent and depth.  That said, we have a great coaching staff, and none of the potential conflicts are insurmountable.  Some guys might chafe at reduced roles but ultimately they aren't essential pieces when you have a big 3 like we have (LeVert, Irvin, Walton) a couple of great shooters off the bench (Robinson, Albrecht) and a battle royale for the remaining minutes on the wing will sort itself out.  The big question is how good Doyle, Wilson, Donnal can be at center.

JeepinBen

October 27th, 2015 at 3:16 PM ^

The one downside to the outstanding growth last year is the potential for the "disease of more". MAAR ended up starting and playing a bunch last year. Is he going to pout now that he's fighting for minutes? (totally hypothetical and an example, I don't know how MAAR is, I could have used Dawkins just as easily).

That said, I think that this coaching staff focuses on player attitude to their own benefit. It came up with the new Commit, that the staff wants kids who "fit". Spike is a great example - when he gets his chances, he capitalizes. When he doesn't he's a great teammate. Hopefully everyone on the roster has the same attitude and excels.

Lanknows

October 27th, 2015 at 4:02 PM ^

This is where their emphasis on character should pay off.

I think Spike, MAAR and Dawkins are going to be fine.  Spike's just a smart kid who knows he was recruited to be a backup and his future is coaching not the NBA.. plus he will be recovering from his surgeries and will still get plenty of significant minutes. Dawkins had so far to go with dribbling, that I don't expect him to suddenly try to be Kobe Bryant either...maybe next year.  MAAR seems like a high character kid too, so I don't worry too much about him.

The biggest "role adjustment" may be for Zak, who really stepped into his own later in the year. He doesn't have to be "just a shooter" anymore, but he needs to fade back toward that a little bit.

There will be a challenge for guys who don't break into the playing rotation, but even if they pout, I don't think it will upset the overall team performance in the short-term.

mwolverine1

October 27th, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^

Have Irvin, Albrecht, Walton, and LeVert done much practicing this summer? It's hard to expect them to be much better if they've just been worrying about getting healthy.

UMfan21

October 27th, 2015 at 2:55 PM ^

having the team healthy will undoubtedly be huge, but I think Duncan Robinson is the key here. I think many people don't realize the impact Nik Stauskas had on the team while he was here. last year was a rebuilding year even before the injuries. Duncan Robinson will be Stauskas 2.0: a crucial piece of the offense to prevent defenses from sagging.

Erik_in_Dayton

October 27th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^

I love this combo when it comes to the Tournament. The adage that guards get you through seems correct to me, and Michigan must have one of the best and most experienced PG duos in the country.