Hoops Preview 2015-16: Bigs Comment Count

Ace

Previously: Hoops Preview PodcastMGoRadio 1.6 (wsg John Gasaway), Point Guards,Wings Part I (LeVert, Dawkins, Irvin), Wings Part II (MAAR, Chatman, Robinson, Wagner)



A sign of things to come?

In Jordan Morgan, Mitch McGary, and Jon Horford, Michigan had the good fortune of rolling with a deep and productive group of big men for a couple years. Last year's trio of Ricky Doyle, Mark Donnal, and Max Bielfeldt lacked the experience, skill, and physicality of that group, and there was a noticeable effect on Michigan's performance at both ends of the court.

While Bielfeldt was allowed to move on to a big-desperate Indiana squad for his graduate year, Doyle and Donnal should be better players as sophomores, and DJ Wilson provides hope that Michigan will get more from its bench up front this season. If there's a hole in this lineup, it's at center, but Doyle displayed enough potential last year that this position can quickly turn into a strength if a viable backup emerges.

Ricky Doyle



Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog

Year: Sophomore

Measurables: 6'9", 250

Base Stats: 18.2 MPG, 6.1 PPG, 61/0/59 2P/3P/FT%, 3.2 RPG, 12 blocks

Key Advanced Metrics: 17.9% usage, 117.4 ORating, 10.4 OReb%, 11.9 DReb%, 55.5 FT Rate, 2.6 block %

If you listened to the season preview podcast or the recent hoops-centric MGoRadio, you know the writers of this blog are very excited about Doyle. A series of unforeseen events—Mitch McGary's suspension and subsequent departure, Jon Horford's transfer, Mark Donnal looking overwhelmed—caused him to go from unheralded recruit to starting center for a Big Ten title hopeful, and while Michigan's season didn't go as planned, Doyle rose to the challenge better than anyone could've expected.

[Hit THE JUMP.]

While Doyle isn't a dominant big man, he's a solid one, and he flashed more skill than we're used to seeing from Michigan centers under John Beilein. Doyle has great feet; while he wasn't a particularly efficient post-up scorer as a freshman, there's a lot of potential in his drop step and baby hook—post-ups won't ever be a significant part of Beilein's offense, but Doyle can go to work down low if need be.

Doyle's biggest offensive contributes comes in the pick-and-roll, which should once again be of paramount importance to Michigan's offense after injuries curtailed its usage much of last season. This is impressive efficiency for anyone, let alone a freshman:

Despite his size, Doyle exhibited soft hands from day one, which made him reliable on the pick-and-roll by the end of the year. Though it accounted for just over 16.4% of his usage, the freshman scored 1.286 points per possession as the roll man, according to Synergy Sports. 

In general, Doyle finished really well; he hit 61% of his shots—70% at the rim—and managed to draw a lot of fouls, as well. It'd be nice for him to improve on his 59% free-throw shooting, but at least he gets to the line. He also did solid work on the offensive boards and took good care of the basketball.

Doyle showed plenty of potential as a defender, as well. His quick feet make him easily M's best big man at the hard hedge, which is Beilein's preferred method of defending the high screen; Doyle can put a lot of pressure on the ballhandler and recover to the roll man in a hurry. He also held up the best in the post against talented opposing big men last year; while Donnal and Max Bielfeldt looked overwhelmed, Doyle held his own and kept his foul rate low—with Doyle looking at a bigger minutes load this year, that last bit is critical.

Doyle has his limitations on defense, though one is overblown. His defensive rebounding rate, which was well below that of M's other bigs and hanging around in normal point guard territory, is almost certainly the product of scheme; Beilein had Doyle focus on boxing out and sealing off his man while allowing a guard swoop in for the rebound, which is why Derrick Walton's defensive rebounding rate looks like that of a power forward. If Doyle doesn't start grabbing more boards himself, there's cause for concern, but I haven't seen any major reason to think he can't do that.

The biggest area for improvement in Doyle's game is conditioning. Both on a macro (he wore down late in the season) and micro (he looked and played tired after 20-25 minutes on the court) scale, he wasn't ready to carry the full load of a starting center—understandable given the circumstances heading into the season. Camp Sanderson should have Doyle ready to play closer to 30 minutes per game; if it also adds some bounce in Doyle's step so he can block some more shots, that'd be a significant bonus. Early returns are good, says John Beilein:

“He came in country strong. He didn’t lift a lot of weights but he was strong walking in the door. I think one of his bigger issues was to change the muscle mass and make it more productive. His lean muscle mass has gone way up. He’s probably in the best condition he’s been in. He’s far from a finished product but I like what I see.”

It would also be nice if Doyle didn't catch seemingly every bug going around campus this year. "Immune system" is high on the needs improvement list.

Most big men take a lot of time to round into form—just look at Jordan Morgan's career—so it's early yet to expect Doyle to be among the top centers in the conference. He got off to a strong start last year, though, and looks to be on the career arc of a future all-conference player. He should take full control of the center job this year and be a solid starter.

Now, can we settle on Doyle's nickname? I'm a strong proponent of The Big Dripper over Big Sweat and Varsity Sweater, but I can very much get on board with Slick Rick. This seems like a good time for a poll.

Which Nickname Is Best?
 
 
 
 
 
 
pollcode.com free polls

Vote or die.

Mark Donnal



Fuller

Year: Redshirt Sophomore

Measurables: 6'9", 240

Base Stats: 10.7 MPG, 3.4 PPG, 57/37/70 2P/3P/FT%, 2.1 RPG, 10 blocks

Key Advanced Metrics: 17.0% usage, 119.6 ORating, 10.2 OReb%, 16.1 DReb%, 3.8 block %

There's no other way to put it: Donnal was a huge disappointment in 2014-15. After getting a mountain of practice hype during his redshirt year behind Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford, Donnal got the first shot at the starting job and looked overmatched. The stat lines above, impressive on their face, are remarkably misleading; against competition with a pulse, Donnal's numbers fell off a cliff.

The number that points to Donnal's struggles the most is his foul rate: he committed 6.4 fouls per 40 minutes in all games—in other words, he'd foul out the average game in around 30 minutes—and against top-50 KenPom opponents that figure rose to an obscene 8.4/40. While Donnal displayed some shot-blocking prowess, he simply couldn't cut it as a post defender, and until he takes a big leap forward in that regard he won't be more than a bit player. Remember that game when Northwestern's Alex Olah looked like Hakeem Olajuwon? Michigan would like to avoid a repeat.

The solution to this may be food. Lots and lots of food.

Both Donnal and Wilson are in the same spot, physically. Donnal saw his weight drop into the 220s at times last season, as he struggled with the chore of bulking his frame up and keeping the weight on throughout the course of an entire season.

He's at 240 now, and is following a strict diet plan put forth by Michigan's nutrition staff. At the moment, he's trying to consume four or five meals per day and roughly 3,100 calories.

That should help, at least. It probably won't solve everything.

The added strength will also benefit Donnal on the other end of the court, where his statistical efficiency masked hesitant play—going up strong around the basket, in particular, wasn't something Donnal did with any consistency. He was good at attaining second chances, but he didn't do much with them.

It's still far too early to write Donnal off; as noted in Doyle's section, big men take time, and Donnal was both young and undersized last year. Plus, Donnal has some tantalizing tools to work with, most notably his jumper—he's a center with three-point range, and in a Beilein offense that could be quite a weapon. Donnal just needs to bring the rest of his game up to par so he can be deployed with regularity.

If Donnal suddenly proves capable of defending in the post and finishing putbacks against quality centers, he'll have a major role on this team; think of the shooting potential of a lineup like Spike-Caris-Dawkins-Irvin-Donnal. For that to happen, though, Donnal first and foremost has to stay on the floor. When he's on it, he has to look physically capable. If that doesn't happen, Michigan will turn to...

DJ Wilson



Fuller

Year: Redshirt Freshman

Measurables: 6'10", 240

The unknown quantity. DJ Wilson arrived on campus last year as a promising, rail-thin freshman; he looked completely lost on the court during his combined 24 minutes in five early-season games before sustaining a knee injury and taking a much-needed redshirt. The DJ Wilson that showed up this fall looks quite different:

That is a DJ Wilson who can play the five; he's been practicing at both the five and the four this season and should see time at both spots, though his path to playing time is much clearer at the former.

What he'll bring to that spot remains to be seen. Wilson's came out of high school billed as a solid shooter with some range, an impressive ballhandler for a tall guy, a decent rebounder, a potentially impactful shot-blocker... and a major project.

The "project" bit was very clear last year. If Wilson can bang down low and know where he's supposed to be on both ends of the court, however, he could become an impact player in a hurry. Like Donnal, he's a big who can stretch the floor, and he's got more potential than Donnal on the finishing end of pick-and-rolls. At a lanky 6'10" with natural shot-blocking instincts, he's got the most potential as a rim protector of anyone on the roster, and Michigan could really use one of those—especially in the wake of the NCAA expanding the block/charge circle last season.

For now, Wilson is the biggest unknown who's likely to see extensive time this season. Video evidence of his ability is limited to his sub-half-hour of playing time last season and this rather tantalizing video posted by Alejandro Zuniga from last night's open scrimmage, which unfortunately took place during MGoRadio:

Wilson confidently moved the ball, made a decisive cut, and hit a face-up jumper over a big man (albeit a freshman big in Moritz Wagner). If we see that often this season, watch out.

For us to see that side of things, Wilson must prove he can handle the physical toll of playing the post in the Big Ten. If Wilson keeps doing what the Daily's Simon Kaufman wrote he did during last night's scrimmage, he's well on his way:

Wilson looked at ease with the ball in his hands at the top of the key and used quick passes to help facilitate his team’s offense. He was stronger down low, confidently posting up on offense and boxing his man out on defense. He also didn’t shy away from shooting from the perimeter, knocking down a handful of 3s over the course of the night.

Fingers crossed. If Donnal doesn't improve dramatically, Wilson's development could be the difference between a good season and a great one. 

Moritz Wagner is also a possible backup center. He's covered in the backup wings section; we expect him to redshirt.

Comments

ish

November 3rd, 2015 at 5:28 PM ^

also, there's been some scuttlebutt that Wagner won't redshirt because he doesn't want to spend 5 years in college.  I.e., if he couldn't go to the NBA after 4 years, he'd prefer to go back to Europe and play there rather than get another year in the US.

Lanknows

November 3rd, 2015 at 6:15 PM ^

Defense Rebound Rate:

2014-15:  19% Bielfeldt, 15% Donnal, 12% Doyle

2013-14:  27% Horford, 26% McGary, 19% Morgan, 17 % Bielfeldt

Doyle's rebound rate was far lower than not only McGary or Horford (whose DRB rate was nationally elite), but also significantly lower than his teammates in the same season.

And if it was a scheme change, why did Bielfeldt rebound at Morgan's level? Even Donnal (who struggled mightly) was close to Bielfeldt's level the year before. 

Why is Doyle the only guy who is showing up with less than half of the rebound rate that McGary and Horford put up?

Furthermore, what would be the impetus or rationale for this supposed scheme change?

---------------------------------------------------

I'm not completely opposed to that argument - I've been making the same one for Novak, Robinson, and Dawkins (every Beilein 4). Their job is to box out, attempt to neutralize what would otherwise be a huge disadvantage, and let the other guys fill-in behind.  The Beilein 4 has always had a terrible rebound rate (2010-11 was the lone outlier I saw where a 4 got more than 15%), and scheme is a viable explanation for that, because it's consistent across personnel. It was true when the 4 was a 6'7 athlete with NBA pedigree as well as when he was a 6'3 grit-guard with accounting pedigree.

But Center?  That's been the position Michigan has relied upon to get rebounds for years. Even when Deshawn Sims was forced to play center he managed to put up more than 15% DRB rate.  Maybe it would have made sense if a great rebounder had earned the 4 spot but uh...that didn't happen. We ended up with Dawkins and/or Irvin at the 4, guys who were even smaller than Robinson. The Michigan's center's job is to rebound. 

I know Walton got a lot of boards, but our guards (e.g., Hardaway) have always done this. It's always been the way Michigan has done it.  But the Center was still the lead guy and getting defensive rebounds was still his responsibility.

I think Doyle was very bad at it.  I think that's OK, because he was a freshman struggling with conditioning and learning the game. I think it's a big reason why Bielfeldt, despite all his limitations, took a lot of high leverage minutes as the season wore on.

I think Doyle will do a lot better this year, and I don't think scheme will have anything to do with that.

rlcBlue

November 4th, 2015 at 12:08 AM ^

Doyle had a bad habit of leaving his man and attempting to block shots, which resulted in very easy offensive rebounds for the opposing center. This is not an uncommon problem for big kids making the transition from preps to college - it takes some time to really internalize how much bigger and springier the average D1 guard is compared to the guys whose careers ended in high school.

IjustBluemyself

November 5th, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^

While the scheme did likely have something to do with Doyles ability to rebound, I believe that another factor is that Doyle was the only Center who was really able to box out Big10 players. There is approximately 0% chance that either Donnal or Bielefelt could be that physical. Additionally, one stat that is often forgotten is the team rebounding. When Doyle played, it was almost double compared to when any other center played.

Lanknows

November 3rd, 2015 at 6:20 PM ^

This team will only go as far as their C allows them to go.  Michigan can not make another trip to the Final 4 unless the C's are playing at a level on par with Morgan/Horford.  That's asking a lot of a bunch of sophomores, but it's not asking too much.  There's 3 of them, they all have some offensive skills, and size/strength/fitness should no longer be an issue against anybody outside of a small elite of future NBA lottery picks.

Donnal needs to get physical and watch some Novak tape.

Doyle needs to get healthy, fit, and improve his rebounding form.

Wilson - if he can block shots and box out could work too.

Toledo_Wolverine

November 3rd, 2015 at 7:49 PM ^

I think Wilson has the most potential on the team! I'm so glad that he redshirted last year. A 6'10" pf/c that can dribble and knock down 3s has NBA lottery potential written all over it.

autodrip4-1968

November 3rd, 2015 at 8:30 PM ^

Mr.Big Sweat. Maybe Mr.Big Sweats sick bug problem was from weather change. I'm excited to see his game this season. Expecting big thing's Mr. Big Sweats. The team is going to be real good. Good health boy's. Go Blue!!!

DrewGOBLUE

November 3rd, 2015 at 9:36 PM ^

Yeah, college campuses definitely aren't conducive to staying healthy during the winter months, with so many people crammed indoors.

Also doesn't help when you go to class and sit down at a desk that others have probably coughed and sneezed and wiped their snot on.

Might not be a bad idea to get Ricky a sterilized plastic bubble to roll around campus in....or at least some good hand sanitizer.

mgobaran

November 3rd, 2015 at 8:38 PM ^

Say we come up against a Syracuse-type zone. Who best plays that Mitch McGary in the middle role? DJ Wilson? Do they turn to Chatman again? Anyone else on the roster fit better?

WolvinLA2

November 4th, 2015 at 12:47 AM ^

I take it Ace didn't like my Dancing Bear nickname suggestion. Sure it's inappropriate, but no one will say anything because they won't want others to know why they know it's inappropriate. Everyone will just chuckle warmly to themselves.

Goggles Paisano

November 4th, 2015 at 5:55 AM ^

+4 increase in pull-ups for DJ Wilson.  I live in the gym and have never seen a 6' 10" cat doing pull-ups.  His long arms = a long way to get your chin to the bar.  Even if he went from 0 to 4, that is still impressive at that size.  For those that have ever spent time in the gym lifting, pull-ups are very hard to do.   

MGoCombs

November 4th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^

I probably consume close to that many calories per day. I can't imagine someone that size trying to add or even maintain weight successfully in that calorie range. 



I'm 6'0" 185lbs. I'm not ripped, but I'm not fat, and I'm physically active around 3-5 hours total per week, almost entirely lifting. I've been fatter at varying periods of my life, so I don't have some abnormal metabolism, and I'm 29.



Point being, it doesn't really make sense, but what the hell do I know. I'm no nutritionist.

umumum

November 4th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^

This write up seems like it was written 6 months ago.

I certainly expect Doyle to be better, but the love shown by Ace seems a little misplaced, if not over-the-top.  Similarly, Wilson's role has clearly jumped--as reflected by the scrimmage, Beilein's comments and his titular starting with the blue team.  And I don't see much (any) likelihood of Wagner red-shirting for the reasons others have already stated.