Hoops Preview 2014-15: Gardening Lessons

Ace October 14th, 2014 at 2:12 PM

[Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

"What is a weed? A plant whose virtues have not yet been discovered." — Ralph Waldo Emerson

John Beilein tends his garden. Yet another year of turnover means another year of intense cultivation.

He once had a Shooter, which bloomed into a stunning Not Just A Shooter™. His Tantalizing Athlete blossomed into an Emphatic Finisher. The Quiet Generic Big Man, through years of care, sprouted into an Imposing Leader of Men and Taker of No Shit. Only the Magnus Catulus failed to effloresce into something entirely different; even the greatest gardener can't control the weather.

Michigan enters the 2014-15 season in a familiar position, loaded with talent but forced to reload. Gone to the NBA are Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, and Mitch McGary; Jordan Morgan's brought his salty style of basketball to Italy; Jon Horford's on-court meditation sessions will now take place in Gainesville.

The Wolverines roster isn't barren, of course. The string bean that was Caris LeVert is now a guru-approved NBA lottery prospect, and he's much less stringy, too. Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin promise growth in their second years on campus. Spike Albrecht's steady hand will once again be available off the bench. A bevy of young big men of all shapes and sizes hope to fill the void left by the trio of departing centers.

I cannot and will not forget that the Bench Mob—led by the exuberant Andrew Dakich—returns in force, which brings me to the other Emerson quote I considered placing atop this post.

Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.

John Beilein may run a sophisticated offense that takes time and great discipline to master, but the aura around his program has always been one of a loose, joyful group. It's infectious. It's changed the feeling of going to the Crisler Center as much as the exquisite renovations. Hell, it's carrying fans through football season, even as uncertainty again looms over the basketball team.

I don't know if Ricky Doyle, Mark Donnal, Max Bielfeldt, and DJ Wilson are a suitable set of big men to make another title run in what of late has been the nation's best basketball conference. I don't know if the loss of Stauskas will leave Michigan one shot-creator short of having another elite offense. I don't know if Kam Chatman can step into GRIII's spot and replace his production. I don't know if Derrick Walton will take a Burkeian sophomore leap. I don't know if Zak Irvin is really more than Just A Shooter. I don't know if last year's regression on defense can be reversed with such a young rotation.

I'm comfortable with not knowing, however, because this isn't the first time. There's plenty I do know, as well. I know that Michigan posted the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the history of KenPom last season, when they had to replace Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr.

I know that the last time the Wolverines weren't considered a preseason top-three Big Ten team, they went 13-5 to grab a share of the conference crown. This season, with Wisconsin the heavy favorites over a jumble of teams with serious question marks, it appears Michigan will be in the same position.

I know that John Beilein is coaching this team, and that means I have no need to worry.

I know, above all, that basketball season will be fun. This isn't the highest bar to set, but as we've learned all too well from football, it's far from the lowest.

There are 27 days until Michigan opens the season with an exhibition against Wayne State. In that span, I'll be writing a lot of preview content, and much of it will focus on the questions this team must answer to live up to the standard that Beilein has created in Ann Arbor.

There's no question about this, however: it's time to start getting excited, because Beilein's green thumb will once again dig up those virtues most other coaches would never discover.

Comments

Hannibal.

October 15th, 2014 at 9:34 AM ^

Just keep the tourney streak alive this year. It's a rebuilding year. I know that we exceeded expectations by a mile last year but I just don't see that kind of wonderful surprise happening again. Since we aren't Duke or Kentucky, I'm perfectly fine with "rebuilding" being defined as a 10-8 conference record with a #9 seed in the NCAA. Next year we'll have everyone back but maybe Levert.

Joined: 09/09/2008

MGoPoints: 9051

Mr. Yost

October 15th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^

We went into the season like top 10, maybe even top 5 in the country to start the year. We had McGary, Stauskas, LeVert and GR3 all coming back from a team that went to the Championship Game

We MET expectations last year.

MSU didn't meet expectations last year and that allowed us to win the B1G, but I'd say that we finished with the record we were supposed to finish with.

This is a rebuilding year in a sense, but only in a way that we can't expect Final Four. We still should be good, we should be a LOT better in March than in December, I think if we put expectations at just an 8-seed, that is far. I expect we'll surpass that, but I don't think we'd just be lucky to make the tournament. We should at least be the "high seed" in the Round of 64.

Joined: 07/25/2011

MGoPoints: -9898220

Mr. Yost

October 15th, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^

I think the standings are somewhat accurate. I'd flip MSU and Nebraska, but I see a clump of teams (including Michigan) at that 3-5 tier and then another clump at the 6-9 tier.

Michigan is going to be the kind of team that beats Wisconsin, but loses to someone it has no business losing to. Kind of like a few years ago when we had some great wins and then lost @PSU.

Last year

Team	W		L	PCT	W		L	PCT	Seed
#7 Michigan	15	–	3	.833	28	–	9	.757	2
#12 Wisconsin	12	–	6	.667	30	–	8	.789	2
#11 Michigan State †	12	–	6	.667	29	–	9	.763	4
Nebraska	11	–	7	.611	19	–	13	.594	11
#22 Ohio State	10	–	8	.556	25	–	10	.714	6

I see us third, but we won't have as many good wins as MSU had last year - I'm putting us as a 6 seed. The B1G won't be as good this year as it has been the last 2 years. I'd put the B1G the last 2 years up against any 2 year stretch in any conference in the past 15 years. Including the ACC and Big East. It was THAT good, IMO.

LeVert, to me, is a VERY good #2...he's not a leading guy night in and night out in my eyes. Not with the attention of the defense and the load of carrying a team.

I've said this before and I get bashed, but I think he's THJ. Which is a VERY good #2.

I think he's drafted somewhere around 20th in the upcoming NBA draft and I think he has a solid career as a 3rd option on a really good team or a 2nd option on a bad team.

I see Michigan finishing 3rd in the conference, by tiebreakers and things of that nature. I think it'll be very close between 3rd and 5th. Something like:

Team	W		L	Seed
Wisconsin	14	–	4	2
Ohio State	13	–	5	4
Michigan	12	–	6	6
Michigan State	12	–	6	7
Nebraska	11	–	7	8
Iowa	10	–	8	10
Maryland	9	–	9	11
Illinois	9	–	9	12

IMO, LeVert is first team All-B1G (but not POY), Walton is 2nd team, Irvin is 3rd team.As for All-Conference, just because I see LeVert as a very good #2 and not an elite player doesn't mean he won't be All-Conference.

This team as a 6 or 7-seed...wins their first game, upsets the higher ranked team in the Round of 32, and gets bows out in the Sweet 16.

Regardless if I'm right or wrong, I think this is where the expectations should be. This would still be a very good year and if everyone but LeVert returns, you're talking about a Final Four team the following year.

Joined: 07/25/2011

MGoPoints: -9898220