Hoops Mailbag: WTF Edition Comment Count

Ace



[Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

I guess we should discuss that. The other thing, too. Let's open the floor for questions.

I'm sensing some despair. Does anyone have a more specific question?

Ah, so. Let's try this again after the jump.

[JUMP, if you dare.]

A LACK OF ATHLETICISM

I am sure that most of our fans are frustrated after the last two games.  I know that I am.  Can you speak to how we missed on all of our top targets in the last few recruiting classes?  The championship game and Elite 8 teams were made up of 3 classes where we hit on elite talent (i.e. McGary/Irvin) or the lower ranked members progressed past where they were ranked (Burke/Stauskas).  The last few classes we have struggled to close on our main targets.  Has it just been bad luck or is there something else that Beilein focuses on that limits our effectiveness to get talent? Or is it as simple as the development of Doyle/Chatman/Walton Jr/Dawkins hasn't been as good as the development of Burke/GRIII/Stauskas/Hardaway Jr were?  

 

Thanks for what you guys do,



Go Blue in Iowa. 

I'm going to twist this question into something I'd like to address after the last couple games, since John Beilein's misses on the recruiting trail—especially the Tyus Battle fiasco—have been much-discussed around these parts.

Beilein has had remarkable success both before and after arriving at Michigan by recruiting players to his system, which narrows the field of potential players to bring into the program. I have zero issue with that—if anything, Beilein's biggest recruiting misses have come when he took higher-rated players who didn't quite seem to fit his coaching style (Carlton Brundidge and Kameron Chatman come to mind).

Scoring is tough when you can't generate a clean look at the rim. [Upchurch]

In getting Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke, Glenn Robinson III, Nik Stauskas, Mitch McGary, and Caris LeVert over the span of three classes, though, Beilein didn't just bring in system guys—he brought in system guys with NBA-level athleticism (Hardaway, GRIII, LeVert) and/or good college athletes whose skill level more than overcame certain athletic deficiencies (Burke, Stauskas). Those players not only maximized what could be done in Beilein's offensive system; they were big and athletic enough that when put in a lineup with a mean-ass upperclassman center like Jordan Morgan, they could play decent (not great, but decent) defense.

That athleticism is simply lacking on this current squad. Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton are fine players, but neither has proven they can consistently beat athletic defenders off the dribble—something Burke and Stauskas did with regularity. Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway, and GRIII could all finish at the rim in traffic; Michigan doesn't have that guy right now, let alone four of them. It's bogging down the offense, and I probably don't need to mention how much it shows up on defense, too. The best athlete on this team, Aubrey Dawkins, has yet to add the skill and basketball acumen necessary to take full advantage of his natural ability. I don't think that's a coaching issue—this staff's track record of development is difficult to dispute—but it stands out this year because this team has fewer great athletes than they did in the recent past.

Beilein has had some bad luck on the recruiting trail; he also forces himself to hit at a higher rate on the recruiting trail by looking for a specific type of player and person. He values certain skills very highly—outside shooting is an obvious example—but I think he's either undervalued pure athleticism of late or he's missed on the targets who best combine system fit and that level of athleticism required to hang with the best teams on both ends of the floor.

DUNCAN'S SLUMP

I believe a couple factors are at play here, but first we should define "slump": while Robinson isn't shooting nearly as well as he did in non-conference play, he's still making 35% of his threes in 11 Big Ten games on a high volume of attempts. This isn't exactly an early-season Zak Irvin situation; Robinson is top-20 in conference-only eFG% among B1G players.

Still, it's apparent Michigan has had more trouble freeing him up for decent looks. Part of that is going against better defenses. Part of that is fatigue—Robinson looked a step slow against MSU trying to break free from defenders off the ball, and the effort it's taking just to get open is likely affecting his shot once he manages to get one off.

The fix involves more than just Robinson; in fact, I don't think it involves Robinson much at all. He thrives when the other guards/wings are getting into the paint and drawing defenders away from the arc; Michigan hasn't been able to get that going of late, so they're trying to get Robinson the ball by having him run all over the place instead of spotting up for catch-and-shoot jumpers after drives by Irvin or Walton (or, when healthy, LeVert). If the main ballhandlers get going again, Robinson should, too.

I don't see this as much of a solution. Dawkins may be the worst defender on this team, which is really saying something. He wasn't effective against Indiana and almost all his production against MSU came after the game was well in hand. He doesn't have Robinson's passing ability and for all his athleticism their rebounding numbers are similarly low. Dawkins is a nice spark off the bench, but until he rounds out his game, he really doesn't add much that Robinson doesn't already do—and, somehow, I think Robinson has become the better defender.

HELP US, CARIS

What the hell is wrong with Caris Lavert? What is his injury really, and at this point, will he really be able to get back in shape and reintegrate with the team completely before the tournament. Could reintegration process be so rocky it jeopardizes our tourney chances?

Your guess is as good as mine as to the specifics of LeVert's injury and his potential return—all we're getting from the team's end are vagaries about how he's getting ever-closer to seeing the floor, but he's still walking around warmups in sweats with a noticable limp. The absurd statements about LeVert's supposed lack of toughness or him valuing the draft over this year's team are just that: absurd. He's clearly hurt in a way that would prevent him from being effective; when he can be effective, he'll be back.

A couple weeks ago, I might've had some concern about him fitting back into the lineup, which had gelled in his absence. After the last couple games, however, it's obvious how much this team needs him; if anyone on the team can solve the offense's problems, or at least assuage them, by presenting a threat off the dribble, it's LeVert. While LeVert isn't a great on-ball defender, he'd also give the team more lineup flexibility when certain players are struggling to match up on that end. The sooner he returns, the better, and I have a hard time seeing him hurt this team's tourney chances.

TOURNEY TEAM?

Yes, but it's getting perilously close. Michigan's strong start in the Big Ten gave them some cushion; over these final seven regular-season games, they can go 3-4 and still feel pretty good about their chances, and that's exactly the finish KenPom currently projects.

While that obviously doesn't leave much room for error, Michigan has done quite well when facing teams outside the top tier of the conference, and that should be their saving grace: Michigan shouldn't drop any lower than the eight-seed in the conference tournament (they're currently at #6, 2.5 games clear of #9 Nebraska), which would set them up for a winnable opening game that could very well make the difference come Selection Sunday.

Comments

BursleyBaitsBus

February 8th, 2016 at 4:33 PM ^

No thanks. There's a 233 reply thread on the side and prior home page thread from the MSU game that explains it rather eloquently. 

Beilein is not a good recruiter. That is 100% on him and his tactics. Sorry you don't like to hear that without playing the "we have to cheat" excuse. 

His Dudeness

February 8th, 2016 at 4:40 PM ^

Our best player is hurt. Not an excuse. That's a fact.

Also, if you assume that Michigan is "above" paying players then you also must assume some reasonable ceiling to your expectations.

We don't play the pay the players game so my expectation for this program is making the tournament most years. 

The absolute best we can do is make the Sweet 16 every few years.

If we magically catch lightening in a bottle and get further, thats all gravy.

Just so happens that's exactly what is happening with Michigan. Most of the time we are pretty decent. Sometimes we are slightly better than that.

The last thing you want to do is fire the coach who made your expectations swing wildly out of reality in the first place.

I'm not sure any of your expectations of this program are realsitic. Remember, we dont pay kids to play in college. We won't do it. Blame Calipari or K or Self if you want, but dont blame JB.

BursleyBaitsBus

February 8th, 2016 at 4:46 PM ^

And I'm saying Michigan's ceiling is higher than Beilein without cheating. 

Gregg Marshall has accomplished almost everything Beilein has by coaching Wichita State, a third fiddle program to KSU and Kansas. 

I don't think he's paying players at Wichita State. 

Hell I would even take a chance on a young energetic Archie Miller right now. JB just looks anemic and defeated on the sidelines these days. 

I think JB will get at least 2 more years given what he has accomplished, but this notion that JB is the only coach who could have done this at Michigan is a farce. 

 

BursleyBaitsBus

February 8th, 2016 at 4:59 PM ^

We're not replacing Fielding Yost here. 

People are talking as if we're MSU contemplating the removal of an old Tom Izzo. 

If the team misses out on the big dance this year, a staff shake up might have to be in order ala 2010. 

TrueBlue2003

February 8th, 2016 at 6:36 PM ^

because he's been here 9 years which is 1/7 of 63 years.  So he'd be performing at expectation/average if the final four consideration window is 63 years.  I don't think anyone doubts he's above average, but with everything the athletic dept has going for it right now, it's reasonable to think we could do better than this, if we're willing to take the risk that we could miss too.

Erik_in_Dayton

February 8th, 2016 at 7:15 PM ^

The NCAA Tournament dates back to 1939. Michigan has made the Final Four one out of every eleven years. But it doesn't happen like clockwork. The 2013 trip to the Final Four was Michigan's first in 20 years - and it's first non-vacated trip in 24 years. And the 2012 Big Ten title was the first regular season crown in 26 years.

Stringer Bell

February 8th, 2016 at 4:47 PM ^

How come Michigan football has no problem recruiting against the cheaters of the SEC then?  18 year old kids aren't coming to play to football at Michigan because we were really good in the 90s, it's because Harbaugh finds creative ways to connect with these kids.  Beilein for some reason refuses to try other methods to improve his recruiting.  He's set in his ways and won't budge from them, regardless of how much our recruiting suffers as a result.

blue90

February 8th, 2016 at 5:19 PM ^

Even if the program had a terrible coach, 5*s would still be signing up because the program is already there.  That is Michigan football.  We are a storied program who will most likely be great.  Im not knocking on Harbaugh's ability, that guy is crazy good.  I'm just saying if you have one or the other, it matter.  Our bball program is nowhere and trying to build it takes longer than 8 years.

Stringer Bell

February 8th, 2016 at 5:29 PM ^

I think it's just the fact that Hoke is a good recruiter.  Rich Rod wasn't great recruiting here, so it's not just the program.  The coach makes a huge difference, and guys like Hoke and Harbaugh just know how to sell themselves and the program to kids.  Michigan has great facilities in basketball, recent success, and has talent rich states like Illinois, Ohio, and Indiana nearby.  Michigan should have no problem recruiting in basketball but for some reason we do, and it has to do with our coach simply being a poor recruiter.

blue90

February 8th, 2016 at 5:46 PM ^

The coach matters hugley.  However, I still think history matters a lot, especially recent history, 20 years or so.  Kids go to Alabama, USC, etc because they just know they're going to win. Saban is amazing, but Alabama would still have kids lining up even if he wasn't there and it is partly because they just know they are going to win and because they want to play there because Alabama is famous and historic and it is an honor to play for the school.  No one has a clue if our ball team will win or not, even Beilein doesn't.  We're not that good at bball and never have been.  Yes, we have a coach famous for developing players and great facilities but Michigan has never been a good bball school and kids know this.  You go to DUKE, UNC, etc to play basketball, you don't go to Michigan to play basketball.  These top 50 kids out of highschool, don't want to develop their talent.  They want to go play at Kentucky so they can say they played at Kentucky and then they want to play with other kids who are good while they are there, maybe make it to the Eilte Eight or so and then just leave to get paid a million a year. This doesn't and won't happen at Michigan, so good players don't come here.  Kids come to Michigan to stay four years and develop their talent because they didn't have much in the first place...exactly what Beilein does.

Stringer Bell

February 8th, 2016 at 6:26 PM ^

I think you're right to a degree, and I'm not expecting us to pull in Kentucky, Duke, UNC, Kansas type classes.  But I think we can do better than we've been doing.  As far as Bama and USC football go, I think there's more to their recruiting success than simply a history of winning.  Bama has a) Saban, quite possibly the greatest coach of all time, b) multiple national championships in the past decade, and c) the benefit of being located in the deep south that is teeming with football talent.  USC was in a similar situation with Carroll, and Kiffin I believe has shown his chops as a recruiter on multiple occasions.  But even with an unknown like Helton, USC still has the benefit of being located in a very talent rich state and having great weather and women.  That alone will appeal to a lot of high school kids.  So there are a lot of factors at play.  Cal Berkley has essentially no basketball history, yet they were able to land 2 5* kids in Brown and Rabb.  Billy Donovan recruited like gangbusters at Florida, which also had essentially no history of basketball success prior to his arrival.  Matta brings in multiple 5*/high 4* kids in each class, despite coaching at a football crazy school that has little history of basketball success.  So Beilein can succeed recruiting here but he has to change his methods.  He doesn't have to be dirty, I don't think that every coach that recruits well is dirty,  but he needs to become more creative, smarter, and probably more persistent in his recruiting efforts.  Or he needs to let his assistants do the heavy lifting, because I think Meyer and Bacari can be good recruiters without the restrictions of Beilein's recruiting philosophy.

Preacher Mike

February 9th, 2016 at 8:01 AM ^

Yeah, BBall recruiting is much dirtier than FBall. More teams can compete for the top talent so the competition makes the incentive to do dirty stuff is much higher. The money generated per player is higher in basketball as well, which may contribute to the perverse incentives. Obviously with the scandals that we dealt with fifteen years ago, I don't think the program is going to take any chances with shady practices, and that is no doubt making it tough to land the top talent.

redjugador24

February 9th, 2016 at 12:06 PM ^

It's nice having a squeaky clean program. It'd be even better to have one that maybe is just "clean" but can still consistently land big time recruits. It's a shame you don't hear more from Burke, McGary, Stauskas, etc. about how Beilien helped them develop.  They could really help with recruiting IMO. 

Erik_in_Dayton

February 8th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^

It's worth noting how bad Coach Beilein's luck as been and how close he's apparently come to some elite recruits. 

He lost McGary forever to a positive marijuana test.

He's now lost about a season's worth of LeVert.

He lost a good chunk of a Walton season.

The Battle situation happened.

He apparently narrowly lost out on Jaylen Brown.

I'm as frustrated as anyone, but it's worth reflecting on how close Michigan has been to the last two years being very different.

 

 

 

Stringer Bell

February 8th, 2016 at 4:42 PM ^

The McGary situation was bad luck, the Levert injury is bad luck.  The rest is not.  Beilein lost Jaylen Brown because Cuonzo Martin is a better recruiter, plain and simple.  The Battle thing happened but it's on Beilein for not maintaining contact with the other elite players in case Battle didn't stick (which he should've foreseen considering how soft his commitment was).

MGolem

February 8th, 2016 at 4:55 PM ^

Kay Felder and Jalen Reynolds. Both of them were there for the taking. Wouldn't have required any improved recruiting tactics, just better targeting. I think Beilein's lack of success/focus on recruiting in state has hurt. And those two specifically have that toughness we so obviously lack. I love all of our players and I appreciate all the skills our players possess but we seem to be missing an essential ingredient to win big/tough games year after year. As of late anyway.

Stringer Bell

February 8th, 2016 at 4:58 PM ^

The problem with recruiting in-state is that Izzo owns the state again.  Beilein had a window of opportunity a couple of years ago to make hay in the state when we were beating MSU but didn't do so.  But yeah, guys like Felder and Reynolds would make this team infinitely better, especially Reynolds who would shore up our biggest weakness.

Erik_in_Dayton

February 8th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^

...it's worth noting that Michigan had the misfortune of having Shareef Abdur-Rahim be Jaylen Brown's mentor, which gave Cal a connection to a Georgia kid they otherwise wouldn't have had.

But yes, it mostly isn't luck.  My only point is that Michigan has been close to adding some big time guys.  Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, sure, but it's still important to realize that we're not that far away from things being different.  To me that means that even recruiting - the bete noir of the staff - doesn't require a massive shake up.

Stringer Bell

February 8th, 2016 at 5:24 PM ^

Mitch is the only elite recruit Beilein has closed on.  Chatman was also a nice victory over a recruiting power in Arizona.  So that's 2 good recruiting wins.  I highly doubt Kansas prioritized Stauskas, similar to when Alabama offers some generic 3 star but said offer isn't committable.  Ditto with Cal and Wilson (Martin was hired in 2014 so he didn't have much time to get in on Wilson's recruitment anyways).  Contrast that with Booker, Blackmon, Brown, Battle (fucking B's), etc. and Beilein just has a poor track record of closing on big time recruits.  The majority of highly rated recruits he's landed were guys that committed early and then blew up later in the process.

theytookourjobs

February 8th, 2016 at 4:23 PM ^

You know lest we forget the man just celebrated his 63rd b-day.  I don't know if he's ever elaborated on how long he wants to coach, but he may choose to leave much sooner rather than later, with the success rate being somewhat irrelevant. 

Swayze Howell Sheen

February 8th, 2016 at 4:24 PM ^

camp #1 - full of excuses ("clean program!", "bad luck!", etc.)

camp #2 - fire the guy!

For me, I am in-between. However, those games against MSU and Indiana were unwatchable. It's ok to lose, but to look that bad? 

 

ReegsShannon

February 8th, 2016 at 4:28 PM ^

I don't buy the "Kam Chatman is a bust because of poor system fit" thing. What makes him a worse fit than GRIII? If anything, Kam Chatman is a better fit in the system because he has a more perimeter-oriented game than GRIII.

It was just a horrible horrible misevaluation by both recruiting sites and Beilein.

ReegsShannon

February 8th, 2016 at 4:49 PM ^

What are you even arguing against? That is just Beilein evaluating Chatman's level of talent incorrectly. Out of high school, the scouting report was that he could handle, pass and rebound, AKA a good fit for the 4 position in Beilein's system. Beilein recruited him thinking that he was talented and a good fit, but Beilein was wrong about him being talented.

Monkey House

February 8th, 2016 at 4:33 PM ^

in regards to recruiting people have to understand Michigan runs a squeaky clean program in the most dirty sport around. getting 5* players, especially centers, is going to be extremely difficult.

In reply to by Lanknows

Monkey House

February 8th, 2016 at 5:45 PM ^

you are joking on no dirt on OSU,Maryland and msu right? you can't be that stupid. if you don't believe being a clean program hurts you, go ask Devin booker.

Lanknows

February 8th, 2016 at 4:34 PM ^

I don't think Walton and Irvin are significantly inferior as athletes to Burke and Stauskas.  That's not the problem.

I think you had it right when you talked about the pairing of elite athletes (Hardaway, Robinson, McGary) with players with elite skill (Burke, Stauskas) and a veteran center. That's the recipe.

The athletes are there (LeVert, Dawkins), the skill is there (Robinson, Walton, Irvin can all shoot), but the missing piece is the veteran center to keep the defense from being a catastrophe.

The elite skill may have degraded to just excellent skill but that's not why this team is getting blown out by most top 20 teams it plays.

I do think Michigan misses GR3's athleticism at the 4 but the big problem, by far, is that we went from McGary, Morgan, and Horford in 13 and 14 to Bielfeldt, Donnal, and Doyle in 15 and 16.

Those guys MIGHT be comprable to Morford when they are seniors but

HenneGivenSunday

February 8th, 2016 at 4:39 PM ^

I am certainly not in the "Fire JB" crowd, but recent performances have been very concerning. I struggle to see why Irvin never gets benched for some of the boneheaded stuff he does out there. Potentially a very good player, but he's clearly in some sort of existential funk.




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L'Carpetron Do…

February 8th, 2016 at 4:52 PM ^

I can't believe how noticeably bad Dawkins is at defense.  Its kind of amazing in a way.  Its Russian roulette when hes out there.  I wonder if that's why he slipped through the cracks in the recruiting process.

Its a shame because he's a fun player to watch and he definitely has the athletic ability to be not just a good defensive player but a great one.  And his lackluster defense is keeping him off the court.  Come on Dawkins - get on your grind! 

trueblueintexas

February 8th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^

I switched on the game late in the second half when it was over and the first play I saw was Forbes for MSU (not known to be an amazing break your ankles kind of player) fake left (not even a cross over) and come back right for a wide open three which he made. Why was he wide open? Dawkins over reacted to the fake left, turned his head back to the baseline for some reason, I have no idea why, got wrong footed and could not recover to even get a hand in the face. 

That's just sad. It made Beilein sad. It made me sad. And it made that panda in the zoo sad. 

BornInAA

February 8th, 2016 at 4:54 PM ^

Yeah, we go a lot of young players that need to beef up next summer and get another year experience under their belts.

So what? 

Some years are rebuild years.

Out of last year's sweet 16, Duke, ND, Butler, Cinci, NC State have all fallen to middle of the pack bubble teams.

JB has given us some great teams. Remember what it was like before he got here.

HarbaughorBust

February 9th, 2016 at 2:21 PM ^

What kind of recruiting classes do each team have coming in?

Outside of Duke, none of those teams have the resources Michigan has. There isn't a Michigan fan here that can't handle a rebuilding year in basketball. Right now, we are looking at rebuilding years, as in at least 3 more years until we maybe have a team capable of winning a championship. That would be 5 straight years of mediocrity or worse.

Given the millions sunk into crisler and the Jordan Brand, that is unacceptable. Something will give.

I hope JB retires. He deserves to go out on his own terms. Don't force Warde's hand.