Hoops Hope: By The Numbers Comment Count

Ace

The encouraging strides Michigan took late in the season have been discussed quite a bit around here, often by picking out specific plays representative of individual improvements. To add to that, I dug into the team's final season statistics to pull out some numbers that point to a whole lot more success in 2015-16.

3.9, 6.3

Zak Irvin's rebounds per game before and after Michigan shut down Derrick Walton for the season. Walton somehow managed to haul down nearly five boards a game this season despite his lingering toe injury; he finished with M's second-best defensive rebound rate. When he went out of the lineup, Irvin made a concerted effort to pick up the slack, and in doing so he made it apparent that he can play the four in the Big Ten—he's not going to be Branden Dawson, of course, but Irvin brings a lot more potential to the other end of the floor. Add in Irvin's significant uptick in assists and suddenly he looks like he'll routinely stuff the stat sheet next season.

15.6

Michigan's season-long turnover rate, good for tenth in the country. John Beilein's squads have been so careful with the ball that we now take this for granted, but to pull that off while losing two of the team's three primary ballhandlers and replacing them with freshmen is astonishing. Much of the credit here goes to Spike Albrecht, who guided the team with a steady hand throughout; even more encouraging was Zak Irvin taking on a much bigger role handling the ball and still posting a top-25 turnover rate in the Big Ten.

51/48/91

Aubrey Dawkins' eye-popping 2P/3P/FT% splits in conference games, which led to him leading the Big Ten in both effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage (the latter factors in free throws). The three-point percentage is probably not sustainable long-term, but even with some regression, whatever the coaching staff did to tinker with Dawkins' shot clearly worked. His season-long shot chart shows a great spot-up shooter who can finish his forays to the rim:

Look closely and you can even spy the potential to add a lethal midrange game to the repertoire. That may take a while to bear out, especially if LeVert comes back, but if Dawkins simply comes close to replicating his freshman shooting numbers he'll be a valuable floor-spacer who occasionally swings games with huge point totals.

29/31

Derrick Walton's FTM/FTA in conference games, a figure as unsustainable as Dawkins' three-point percentage, so if you'd prefer, take comfort in his 82% clip for the season. While Walton's other shooting numbers took a significant hit due (mostly) to his injury and (somewhat) to fewer open jumpers created by Nik Stauskas and LeVert, his free throw percentage improved a few points while he continued to get to the line at an impressive rate. The best-case scenario for Walton next year has him becoming James Harden Lite, an efficient creator who's going to hit threes or get to the basket for layups and plenty of chances from the charity stripe. With two healthy feet, he's got a chance to be just that.

48%

Spike Albrecht's two-point percentage in the Big Ten. Spike attempted 63 such shots in conference play this season; in his first two full seasons at Michigan, he took just 58 two-pointers combined and made 41% of them. Most everyone assumed Spike's game wouldn't evolve too much from there; he'd spend two more seasons Harlem Globetrotting around the lane before dishing the ball off, and that was fine. Instead, he honed that funky scoop layup and turned it into a legitimate weapon. Spike may never be a true threat to attack the hoop with efficiency, but teams have to respect him in the lane now, and that opens up a lot when he comes off a screen.

Comments

FreddieMercuryHayes

March 20th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^

Here's more:

0 - As in 'zero' freshman being forced into significant playing time due to lack of returning players.

8 - the number of players expected to return who saw more than 10 mintues a game.  As opposed to the 4 players that returned for this season.  This could be 9 if LeVert stays.

1-4: UM's record in OT this year.  By my calculations, from the 2010-2011 seasons until this season, UM's OT record under Beilein has been 8-2.  This is probably related to the previous stats listed

ypsituckyboy

March 20th, 2015 at 11:41 AM ^

Like others, I'm excited that we'll have a more experienced group of players next year. However, there is still a definite need for high level talent in the future. I don't think it'll be an issue next year assuming LeVert returns and Irvin and Dawkins stay on their upward trajectory. But for 2016, Beilein really needs to bring in a blue-chip scorer or two. Guys like MAAR/Donnal/Doyle will be good four year players, but if we want to make semi-regular deep Tourney runs, I don't think that'll cut it. We really need to snag a top-shelf guy every year or two, supplemented by solid role players. UM will never recruit like UNC, Kansas, or probably even OSU. But grabbing one elite talent every year or two should be doable.

Take OSU for example - one recruit, D'Angelo Russell, basically saved their butt this year. Without him, they would've fared much worse than they did. High level freshman also helped Indiana and Maryland reach heights that they otherwise wouldn't have.

Tater

March 20th, 2015 at 12:27 PM ^

I fully believe that the highest level of recruits is going to go where the money is.  Ehical programs need not apply.  

John Beilein's strengths are recognizing potential in players other coaches don't and developing those players once they get to Michigan.  The occasional high-level recruit is nice, but they are increasingly going to schools that are known for taking liberties with the regulations.

I don't blame the players because they deserve the money.  However, until the NCAA lets players earn money from outside sources, I am not holding my breath in anticipation of Michigan rolling out nine McDonald's All-Americans in their lineup.  At least we know that if Michigan does win a title, the NCAA isn't going to make them vacate it in a few years.

BJNavarre

March 20th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^

Irvin's made huge strides in his handle and rebounding. Where he could make a huge improvement next year is finishing at the rim. The coaching staff should sit him down to watching how Trey Burke would use his off-arm to keep defenders away from the ball, often finishing with guys 10 inches taller defending him. Then show a tape of Irvin attempting to finish, allowing the defender to consistantly get in a position to block the shot by not using his off arm.

gustave ferbert

March 20th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^

his shot chart is fascinating because to a right handed shooter I would be inclined to believe that his best 3 point shots taken on the floor would be right elbow extended and top of the key.  Yet they are his weakest. . .

25% from the top of the key surprises me, especially if he is a 90%+ free throw shooter. 

poppinfresh

March 20th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^

jaylen brown on campus

with his mom, his grandma, his uncle who went to um for under and grad school and his cousin (a maize rager). 

could be a family reunion, could be a serious look at um.

this kool aid taste good as f***

remdog

March 20th, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^

coaching job by Beilein this year. It's' disappointing since we were tantalizingly close to a miraculous NCAA tourney bid this year despite all the adversity. But it was still a successful year. Without phenomenal coaching, there's no way this team is competitive with elite teams at the end of the year. After losing 3 players to the NBA, the 2 most senior players to graduation and transfer, the two best players to injury, a top freshman to injury and the services of the best front court player for many games to illness, most teams would have just folded. Instead we competed with the very best while starting 3 unheralded freshmen much of the year, a 6'7" center with no vertical and a backup point guard while playing 2 walkons for significant minutes.

And now we have the ingredients for greater success next year!

schreibee

March 21st, 2015 at 12:23 PM ^

Luv some Coach B, but were we "spectacular" during the NJIT-EMU-AZ-forgot the others stretch? While still at full strength mind you!

That was the strangest, most unrepresentative of Beilein's track record string of games in his time here. I have yet to see it fully explained/rationalized in the all the series of hoops post-mortems on this blog. Anyone?

MRJ2di

March 20th, 2015 at 2:41 PM ^

Does his visit appear like the token Michael Kidd-Gilchrist visit a few years ago?  If his interest is real (more than just a family reunion), what are UM's chances?

MRJ2di

March 20th, 2015 at 2:41 PM ^

Does his visit appear like the token Michael Kidd-Gilchrist visit a few years ago?  If his interest is real (more than just a family reunion), what are UM's chances?