Hoop Math: Five-Man Unit Stats, Or The Rise Of Mitch McGary

I, too, enjoy McGary's rebounding rage.

Also, small sample sizes and all, but those are some tasty numbers from the Burke-LeVert-Stauskas-GRIII-McGary lineup.

All year long I've been advocating including McGary in the rotation more, simply because Morgan drives me nuts with his constant mistakes and inability to finish.  This data finally makes a strong point that McGary should be in the starting lineup instead of Morgan.  Looks like we will get that wish this week and see if it makes a difference.

Given McGary and Horford's foul rates, I think the main issue is that the two of them can't combine for 40 minutes.

Not morgan v mcgary. I don't think horford is a huge dropoff, but we don't know how he'll do under extreme pressure in roadies

This is really cool, great work.

I wonder if Morgan is more frequently going up against an opponent's top center while McGary might be playing against a backup more often.  Could be a part of the difference - i.e., Morgan is 'less better' than the top center and McGary is 'more better' than the backups?

This is very reassuring...But I'll still feel better when JMO is back in there making opposing coaches crazy. Fantastic analysis anyway, #mgoblogrxcellence

First, everyone should read kenpom's take on +/-  :

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/a_treatise_on_plus_minus/

There's a ton of noise in these numbers.

Second, everyone should read:

http://btn.com/2013/01/28/big-ten-geeks-oladoeverything/

McGary is a nice defensive player, but he can't move his feet like JMo can, and that causes him to get more than 5 fouls per 40.

pretty small and messy. But this is another interesting contribution to a McGary v. JMo debate that I kinda find regrettable. (Too bad you don't take into account any of the recent history of conversation about it here.) Generally, both players bring pretty different things to the table. And you don't get into what may prove the most crucial factor Saturday: being able to guard Zeller one-on-one. For that job I'll take Morgan in the starting role, hands down.

It still fascinates me that Morgan catches so much hell for early-career missed bunnies when he has been in the top two offensive leaders for the conference three years running. I think what it may mean is that it's hard to be a tall person and perform all these roles in the crowded area beneath the basket--that in fact JMo does it extremely well. We see McGary miss his share of such shots too. Love both of them myself, but think Morgan is really under-appreciated. Don't think he has quite reached the level of confidence on offense this year as last--or the year before, when Darius Morris found him with such pinpoint accuracy--but I hope to see that return. 

In truth, the big man blessings for Michigan are extraordinary; but Saturday we will see why we need Morgan. 

As a follow-up, perhaps you could look at the assist rates and transition baskets when McGary and Morgan are on the floor to better understand the offensive efficiency numbers? If McGary passes better and creates more offense off of turnovers, you should be able to find it in there, especially as the year goes on.

I wonder if you could combine this analysis with transition data. My subjective impression is that it often takes M a while to get into fast break mode,and this may coincide with McGary entering the game. Whether McGary is the direct impetus or not, his numbers would benefit from that. It does seem true that he's a good outlet passer, so he's probably responsible for at least some of the variance.

... McGary's excellence on the glass leads to a better rebounding rage. I always said Morgan needed to work on channeling his anger toward the offensive glass.

And I don't know if it showed up in the stats or not, but it seemed like Illinois punished us on the offensive glass when McGary was in. Did anyone else notice this? Are there any stats to back this up?

Ace:

This is outstanding anlysis.  Thank you for putting in the time to produce & publish it.

But what about Bielfeldt?  No statistical  love for the big guy?

First of all, excellent work Ace.  I do have a couple of comments:

• Individual defensive metrics are to be used carefully, but UMHoops did an analysis recently that showed Morgan was definitely better as an individual defender than McGary:  LINK
• Obviously McGary seems to make more big plays with blocks and steals, but the eye test tells me he's a much more variable defender than Morgan.  He loses his man trying to help more, he fouls more trying to go for the block or being aggressive, and he lets his man get better position.  I think Morgan does most of his work without notice because he's denying his man the ball and never letting him get a good shot.  I also think Morgan sets better picks.  Those are probably the reason he'll remain the starter - along with the fact that having McGary's energy come off the bench is a big boost. 
• If Morgan or McGary can ever fix their issue making shots from within 2-feet of the basket they will get a bulk of the minutes.
• What's so amazing about this team is that we have three centers who are relatively interchangeable, plus we have Bielfeldt that can hold his own in small doses.  Think about last year - the second post player was Smotrycz playing out of position and the third was McLimans.  In order for McLimans to see the floor this year we'd have to get through FOUR other solid options.  And next year McLimans is replaced by a top-100 power forward who is a great fit for this offense! 

When will Beilein unleash the Albrech-Levert-Stauskas-GRIII-McGary awesomeness of a lineup?

Who McGary and Morgan play against are not random draws; they are endgenous decisions by the coach.  Adjusting for the quality of opposition would be one approach.  Overall, as one person said, this is reassuring.  But, it's far from definitive.

It's almost impossible to over-state how sensitive this kind of +/- stuff is to sample size issues.

The article briefly comments on the fact that even the most used line-up listed accounts for less than two games' worth of plays, but it's even less reliable than that, because the line-ups compiled their stats against different opposing line-ups.  Stats analysts for the NBA typically prefer to include two seasons worth of data when comparing +/-, and they have twice as many games per season against more consistent opposition.

I like McGary, but this data just really isn't useful.

I've felt that McGary had outplayed Morgan the last two games and could push him for being the starter by next year if not the end of this year.  When Morgan went down against Illinois, besides feeling bad for JMo, I was not at all worried and a little bit excited to see what McGary would do with the extra minutes.  I felt McGary didnt play all that well and got benched a lot and ended up with his normal amount of minutes.  Horford impressed at times, like with his first post move that he sadly couldnt replicate, and Bielfeldt looked a lot better than expected. Overall though, I like things the way they are with McGary comign off the bench for 16 minutes and JMo starting and getting similar minutes with Horford taking up the rest.