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Holy Pants, It's A Real Opponent

By Brian — July 27th, 2009 at 12:54 PM — 69 comments
Filed under:
  • scheduling

I've dissed on Big Ten Media Days today, but here's something of major import:

He said U-M is close to signing an opening opponent for 2010. He said it's a BCS school for a home-and-home series.

!!!

Michigan would not be lining up a home-and-home with Duke or whoever, so this is an opponent ranging from decent to excellent. When Boise State popped up as a potential opponent, I scoured the schedules and came up with a list of potential opponents. Those opponents, once more:

NOT HAPPENING WITHOUT AN UNLIKELY RETURN GAME

  • Alabama
  • LSU
  • Arkansas
  • Cal
  • Georgia
  • Oklahoma State

WHY BOTHER

  • Baylor
  • Duke
  • Kansas State
  • Mississippi State
  • Washington State

EH… MAYBE?

  • Maryland (would have to move Navy game)
  • NC State
  • Pitt
  • Virginia
  • Oregon State
  • South Carolina (would have to move Troy game)
  • TCU (they'd have to move their Baylor game)

TCU and all the "why bother" schools are out since it's a home-and-home. Georgia is not a candidate. Also, Maryland's game against Navy is in Baltimore and thus not moveable. They're out. What about the rest?

UNLIKELY

Alabama: has already filled out its 2010 schedule, and Penn State is on it.
LSU: Though they need a 12th game they would have to move Tulane and already have West Virginia lined up.
NC State: Open date, but has a real game (Cincinnati) scheduled on 9/4.
Pitt: No conflicts but already has Notre Dame and Miami on the nonconference, with ND on the road.
Oregon State: open date but already have UL and Boise lined up, with Boise on the road.

POSSIBLE

Arkansas: has only announced their now-annual neutral-site game against A&M.
Cal: Would have to move the Louisiana Tech game but has an open date and no scheduled road games. They do have Colorado lined up.
Oklahoma State: only Tulsa and Troy on the docket right now and nothing on 9/4.
Virginia: already lined up to die at USC, but do they really care about adding a game? No conflicts.
South Carolina: Would have to move a game against Troy and has North Carolina already lined up, but all of their noncon are currently at home.

My bets in order:

  1. Oklahoma State, which has a schedule that can accommodate Michigan with ease and is a nouveau riche school looking for a big scalp.
  2. Cal. Michigan loves scheduling Pac-10 schools and they can go on the road in 2010.
  3. Virginia. They'd have to be nuts, but maybe they are.

Also: Rodriguez confirmed that all the freshmen are ready to go, making Gallon and Turner's status officially official.

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Posted on: July 28th, 2009 at 9:44 AM #1
whidbeywolverine
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2010 opener

Washington State is a good choice if we dare go back to the West Coast for the return game. It would be at Qwest Field in Seattle, where Wazzu is playing approx one game a year now in Sept.

whidbeywolverine

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Posted on: July 28th, 2009 at 1:09 AM #2
Kinda Blue
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Renovations

One thing to keep in mind for Cal is that they are finally beginning their own stadium renovations. So a home and home may not only be used to premier Michigan's renovations, it may also serve to unveil Cal's renovations down the road.

Cal's project has been controversial, so it may not be done in time for 2011.

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Posted on: July 28th, 2009 at 9:33 AM #3
joffle
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Good point

However I believe the projected schedule for Cal's stadium renovations currently has them playing elsewhere for the 2011 season and opening the renovated stadium in 2012. But in 2012-2013 they're playing Ohio State, so presumably wouldn't do Michigan as well.

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Posted on: July 28th, 2009 at 9:14 AM #4
wolverienstra
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Return game doesn't have to be in 2011

True that -- although the return game in a home-and-home doesn't need to be in 2011; it could be in 2012 or 2013. Another reason to suspect it's Cal.

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Posted on: July 28th, 2009 at 9:25 AM #5
wile_e8
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I'm guessing if it isn't

I'm guessing if it isn't 2011, it'll be 2013. I don't think Martin will want to deal with the loss of revenue from two away OOC games in one season the years the team travels to ND.

Our helmets got wings

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Posted on: July 28th, 2009 at 7:10 AM #6
Other Chris
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Oh, right!

They had the treesitters.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 10:31 PM #7
naijablue
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UVA???

I know we had an historic matchup with them in the past but have any of you watched any of the Al Groh coached teams play?? AWFUL!

They always finish somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5 and would be a "lose-lose" situation. We win, they finish 6-6 in the weak ACC and it does not help our strength of schedule at all. We win, and Groh blows 6 other games to make that loss look awful.

Cal would be the best option from this list. You have to figure they will go at least 8-4 (Who could they lose to in conference other than USC and Oregon?) and the PAC-10 is viewed with more respect nationally than the ACC.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 10:18 PM #8
Undefeated drea...
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Is Pitt it?

My money is on Pitt, a home-and-home with the PGH game being a Saturday nighter, and a larger-than-normal appropriation of tickets for the visiting teams. I have no reason for this except guesswork; who cares about Brian's merciless logic?

Wanting something to be true does not make it true.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 9:37 PM #9
markgoblue
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If we play Alabama

If we play Alabama, that will make GERGG Easterbrook so excited for the WEASEL BOWL 2010!!!

We don't need fate, we have five.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 7:43 PM #10
jaggs
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Recruiting

From a recruiting perspective, getting out to California and have some of the most talented high schoolers in the country could only help land a prospect or two from out there. Going into Big 12 and SEC country in Oklahoma seems less likely to result in M landing more recruits.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 7:11 PM #11
mgovictors23
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Cal

I would love to see a home and home with California. Out of the three teams that were listed as the most probable Cal is really the best team. Oklahoma State is going to lose all their best players after this year and Virginia really isn't anything special even though the 95 game was amazing.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 7:10 PM #12
beantownwolve
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Home and "Home", maybe?

Maybe Bill Martin is looking at a deal where he plays one game at the Big House and one at a neutral site in which they'd be the 'road' team. I'd love to see Michigan in the Meadowlands or something along those lines.

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Posted on: July 28th, 2009 at 9:10 AM #13
wolverienstra
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Think You've Hit On Something There

Beantownwolve, if you didn't go to UM B-school, you should'a; nice thinking there. No way UM schedules a home-and-home with *any* school that can't provide an equitable gate in the return game -- otherwise, why do it, in Martin's opinion, except out of complete desperation? So, maybe you're onto something there with the idea that UM plays vs. Rutgers (or 'Cuse) at Yankee Stadium or the Meadowlands. Delaney craaaaves him that east coast market, and doesn't want ND one-upping him (cf. ND-Army game).

More wild (but fun) speculation: such a game might also be a test to see if Rutgers would have the drawing power needed for... an invitation to join the Big 10? -- i.e., a pre-invitation test?

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Posted on: July 28th, 2009 at 6:19 PM #14
beantownwolve
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UVA, Duke, Pitt....

Pitt may make sense at Heinz and in the middle of an area that is important from a recruiting standpoint. Would Duke play in Charlotte at the Panthers stadium? Maybe UVA at RFK stadium or the Meadowlands where both schools have a lot of Alums?

Bill Martin is a pretty innovative guy when it comes to stuff like this and I'd have to think that he's thinking about many possibilities.

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Posted on: July 28th, 2009 at 6:19 PM #15
beantownwolve
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UVA, Duke, Pitt....

Pitt may make sense at Heinz and in the middle of an area that is important from a recruiting standpoint. Would Duke play in Charlotte at the Panthers stadium? Maybe UVA at RFK stadium or the Meadowlands where both schools have a lot of Alums?

Bill Martin is a pretty innovative guy when it comes to stuff like this and I'd have to think that he's thinking about many possibilities.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 9:09 PM #16
Number 7
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My thoughts as well. Either

My thoughts as well. Either Rutgers (with the return game in the new Giants stadium), or Syracuse (returning to Yankee Stadium -- there was new york times blog post about Syrcuse folks feeling left out of the Yankee Stadium scheduling.) At any rate, the Big East is just the sort of non-BCS quality/BCS credentials conference in which it makes sense for Michigan to plumb.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 6:22 PM #17
Jorel
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A thought

On the Georgia debunking: Why would the return game have to be in 2011? Couldn't it be in 2012? That wouldn't work so well for Michigan (@ ND and @ UGA in the same year), but it would work.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 7:10 PM #18
cutter
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Its possible, but . . . .

A couple of things. In 2012, Georgia has games scheduled at Louisville on 9/15 and at Georgia Tech, so it is possible for UGA to host the Wolverines in Athens that season. Michigan is scheduled to play at Notre Dame on 9/22 that season--not to mention the season ender at Ohio State. Penn State rotates off Michigan's schedule that year, so Georgia-Notre Dame-Ohio State would ensure three top notch opponents. But those three games would be on the road with two in September--you can ruin a season real quick that way.

Could it happen? Yes. But Georgia would have to agree to open the season at Michigan in 2010 and play at Colorado in the same season. Then you add their games against Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, etc., plus whoever is on the schedule from the SEC West. Somehow, I don't think that's going to happen.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 5:52 PM #19
eric jay
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My hopes

1) Cal with Jahvid Best
2) Arkansas
3) Pitt
4) ok st. because most of their ten best players according to this preview:
http://cfn.scout.com/2/872672.html

will be gone

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 5:51 PM #20
cutter
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Analyzing the choices . . .

Virginia - Not likely seeing that UVA is scheduled to play at Southern Cal on 9-11-2010. The odds of the Cavaliers starting the season playing back-to-back road games against UM and USC are virtually nil.

California - Their current 2010 schedule has Cal opening with two home games--Louisiana Tech (9/4) and Colorado (9/11). You might be able to move the game against LaTech, but I also doubt the Golden Bears are going to start the season with a road game at Michigan followed by a game against Colorado. In 2011, Cal plays at Colorado on 9/10. In 2012/13, they have a home-and-home with Ohio State.

Oklahoma State - There certainly are openings on the Cowboys non-conference schedule in 2010 (Troy, Tulsa) and 2011 (at Tulsa). They've also upped their non-confernce schedule recently with games at Georgia (2007) and at Washington State (2008). OkState opens the 2009 season at home in Stillwater against Georgia.

Arkansas - The Razorbacks has a scheduled series with Texas A&M in 2010 and 2011. The game will be played in Dallas, TX. I find it highly unlikely that an SEC team would schedule both Michigan and Texas A&M in the same seasons when you have LSU, Auburn, and Alabama also on the schedule.

South Carolina - The other USC's 2010 schedule has Troy (9/4) and North Carolina (9/18) on it. As Funky mentioned, the Troy game would have to be moved to accomodate a game in Ann Arbor, but I don't think that's happening. Troy is a classic first-game, warm-up opponent and UNC's program has gotten markedly better under Butch Davis. Add in the SEC East (Georgia, Florida, Tennessee) on the schedule and I have a hard time envisioning Spurrier coming to Ann Arbor with the Gamecocks.

Oregon State - Funky thinks this unlikely, but there's a possibility there. The Beavers do have a home game against Louisville (9/18) and then they play at Boise State (9/25). The scenario here would have the Beavers playing the Wolverines on 9/4 in Ann Arbor, getting a bye week, then playing Louisville, etc.. With five home Pac 10 games, that means Oregon State would have six total in Corvallis. I also understand the Oregon State AD has ties to Michigan, and they did play at Penn State las year. Oregon State has a game at Wisconsin (9/10) in 2011.

Pittsburgh - Not likely to happen. As Funky mentions, Pitt has Miami-Florida and Notre Dame on their 2010 non-conference schedule. In 2011, Pitt plays at Iowa (9/3), Buffalo (9/17) and Notre Dame (9/24). On 9/10/2011, Michigan is scheduled to play ND in Ann Arbor--that's a scheduling conflict right there which drops Pitt from contention.

North Carolina State - As Funky mentions, they have a home-and-home series with Cincinnati for the open Saturdays of the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Would they try to change that arrangement with UC in order to get a home-and-home with Michigan? Possible, but not on a high order or likelihood.

Among the teams mentioned above, Oklahoma State looks like the most probable candidate. Other thoughts:

Duke has a home game with Alabama on 9-18-2010. Would the Blue Devils want to open the season at Michigan and then play 'Bama two weeks later? I doubt it.

Baylor has a home-and-home series with TCU and is scheduled to open the season with them in 2010 and 2011. Not likely to change that.

Maryland has a home-and-home series with West Virginia in 2010 and 2011. Again-- Maryland is not likely to play both Michigan and West Virginia in the same season.

Washington State is a possibility in that they have open dates on their 2010 and 2011 schedules. Mississippi State, OTOH, has three of its four non-confernce oppoents lined up (UAB, Memphis, Tulne/Houston) for 2010 and 2011. MiSU not likely.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 4:51 PM #21
KzooRick
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I am surprised that with

I am surprised that with Arkansas on the list of possibilities nobody has mentioned that they would in all likelihood be led by a certain ex UM qb. Is this a good thing or a bad thing. I am also very curious- as if anyone could possibility know - would the situation make it more likely or less likely to happen.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 8:28 PM #22
victorsandbest
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The first thing i thought of

The first thing i thought of when I read this article was mallet back in the big house. I thought that idea would start a feeding frenzy on here. It would be cool to see one of RR's qb's beat one of carr's. If this couldn't be worked out I would love to see Cal.

"what the hell is wrong with u?" "me? Nothing! you on the other hand, have a bullet inside of you!"

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 4:47 PM #23
hail2thevict0r
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I think Cal would be the best game...

Tradition, pac10/big10 and a pretty equal team. I think it would draw a lot of national attention. Oklahoma state would be kinda "meh" in my opinion. Virginia would be great but I would personally still like to see Cal. Going to Cal would also be more exciting than Virginia. Either way next year is going to be one of the most exciting years in a while.

OH-HOW-I-HATE OHIO STATE

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 4:47 PM #24
wolverienstra
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My guess: Cal

Here's why:
1) b/c Big10+Pac10=4EVER. 'nuff said.
2) b/c, IIRC, ~ 10 yrs ago, UM and Cal signed a contract to play 5 games -- 3 @ UM, 2 @ Cal -- starting in 2008 or so. Said contract was later cxl'd, obv'ly, but may be resurrected now?
3) We haven't had a Pac-10 team as regular season opponent in a few years; we're due.
4) OK, pure speculation, but Google co-founder Larry Page (UM and Stanford alum) pro'ly personally paying for UM to beat stuffing out of Cal? Nah...

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 4:59 PM #25
jmblue
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Good call on #2

We definitely were going to play Cal. I don't know why it was canceled.

Nitpick on #3 - we did play Oregon (unfortunately) in 2007.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 4:28 PM #26
jericho
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I'm in the minority

But I have very good memories from the last Michigan/Virginia game. It was so freakin hot I thought about leaving in the 4th quarter. Soooooooo glad I stayed. Of course, the return trip to Virginia wouldn't be as fun.....

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 3:30 PM #27
jmblue
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Here's another vote for Cal.

Here's another vote for Cal. It's a natural choice - a solid program from another terrific public university, from a conference that we have a long history with, and to boot, they share our color scheme. Let's make it happen.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 3:18 PM #28
DC Wolverine
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Word on the street

is that the Home and Home is with UConn.

F*CK tO$U

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 3:16 PM #29
New Kid On The Blog
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You can leave your hat on

Don't bother tipping your cap to Bill. He got forced into this or we'd be playing Madonna University. His scheduling has lead to disaster for Michigan.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 3:02 PM #30
Other Andrew
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Maybe this is pessimism...

...but in this day and age I just can't see Michigan traveling to Stillwater, Oklahoma for a football game. And to imagine a trip to Virginia, I have to squint really hard. I would think that of the ones Brian lists, Cal and Arkansas are the only likely possibilities for a home and home.

LSU would be the most exciting by far.

Road Games is another blog

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 3:14 PM #31
Other Chris
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Maybe I'm biased

But I can't imagine what makes Fayetteville more attractive than Charlottesville.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 5:24 PM #32
Blue Durham
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Feyetteville has Ryan Mallett

But as far as the possibilities go, I prefer UVa first, Cal second (only because with UVa we have a better chance at sweeping them). These are public universities that are on par, academically, with Michigan, and I always thought it would be good to schedule with those schools preferentially over others.

I don't like the prospect of a home-and-home with Oklahoma State.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 2:54 PM #33
Blue Balls
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Michigan had great wins in basketball this past season beating-

Duke and UCLA. Big wins such as these help put Michigan Basketball back on the radar and has helped recruiting. This is a statement game for Michigan's Football Program-I can't wait. A tip of the cap to Mr. Martin is in order-well done skipper.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 2:51 PM #34
Fuzzcaster
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NC State!

I'll be the sole vote for NC State so I can see them in Raleigh in 2011 (or whenever). I'm still disappointed the Michigan-North Carolina match-up never happened. It showed up on the long range schedule ~1999 for 2009-2010, but then disappeared ~2001. Anybody know why it was cancelled? I'd love to see UM crush the Wolfpack.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 9:13 PM #35
Number 7
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Didn't Michigan crush NC

Didn't Michigan crush NC State in a Moeller-era bowl game? Speaking of bowl games and of a UM-UNC matchup, I can't help but think of Lawrence Taylor breaking John Wangler's leg in the '80 (was it?) Gator Bowl. That and Chris Webber calling time. Doh!

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 9:13 PM #36
Number 7
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Didn't Michigan cruch NC

[deleted -- double post]

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 8:37 PM #37
TheManDownTheHall
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No, you're not the only one

I'm down here in Salisbury so I'd gladly make the trek! Heck, them or Virginia and I'm there!

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 3:42 PM #38
teldar
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UNC

I would imagine it was because UNC went back to blowing chunks after a couple good years.

Wasting away in Ohio, a Wolverine in a sea of red and grey

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 2:48 PM #39
mgopat
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This reminds me of

This reminds me of choosing Prom dates, except with a little more bloodshed.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 2:39 PM #40
Homesick Alien
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Not so fast

I realize that these are the most likely schools based on the current schedules but I suspect we might be in for a surprise. This is partly wishful thinking but with the opening of the renovated big house and UM agreeing to a home and home, I personally would like to see a traditional power. It would not be out of the question for a Nebraska or Texas etc., to change a game to accomodate a huge nationally televised game.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 2:08 PM #41
Yinka Double Dare
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Oklahoma State would be

Oklahoma State would be interesting, the Fighting T. Boone Pickenses have been a decent team and it would be a new opponent. We don't seem to ever really play any of the Big 12 teams in OOC games, the only time we ever see them is in Alamo Bowls.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 2:52 PM #42
Michiganguy19
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OSU (not that OSU)

Okie State could be really good this year, there is a chance the Oklahoma - Okie State game could be the game of the year... I say get them on the schedule.

'Cause I Bleed Blue...

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 2:06 PM #43
esipp
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Cal and OK St.

Both Cal and OK St. seem like attractive options. They are respectable opponents and located in recruiting hot beds where Michigan would like positive publicity. (Thank you recent Rose Bowl performances)

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 1:58 PM #44
SpartanDan
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Cal seems most likely

Pac-10 teams are well known for playing tough non-conference schedules. Big XII teams ... not so much. Cal also has a history of series with Big Ten teams (MSU and Minnesota recently).

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 1:48 PM #45
the_white_tiger
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"A nouveau riche looking for

"A nouveau riche looking for a big scalp" is probably the best thing for Okie State. I'd love to see Michigan in their awesome stadium (compliments of T. Boone.) However ,Okie State does not look to be as good next year or in the foreseeable future, as all their stars are NFL-bound (probably) after this year. As an OU fan I hate the T. Boones, I mean Cowboys and I'd love to see Michigan run over, around, and through their flimsy defense any day.

Cal would be cool too.

Kittens help make the pain go away.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 1:46 PM #46
MichiganStudent
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Hell yes! I cannot wait for

Hell yes! I cannot wait for the press release on the actual opponent

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 1:45 PM #47
Ziff72
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Decent

A lot of talk about games with Virginia and Cal as being "amazing" or "awesome". These are fine games, but let's not get too overboard. Games with LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Georgia, USC, V. Tech, Florida St. These would be amazing. Cal is pretty good but don't have the tradition behind it. We should bazooka Virginia off the map when we are up and running. Mich-Vir is not going to get the 8:00 ABC time slot it is not amazing.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 1:53 PM #48
Michigan Arrogance
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if this is the opening weekend of the season (and it is)

and if we really are going to have a ceremonial opening of the stadium (which we are), then we may just have the game at night (ZOMG! Night GAAAAME!!!!111!!) and it will probably be a national TV game.

Harvard: The MICHIGAN of the East

We're not arrogant, we're just better.

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 2:10 PM #49
esipp
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No lights

There are footings for light stanchions being installed as part of the renovations, but the actual lights are most likely a many years away if/when the skyboxes pay for them

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Posted on: July 27th, 2009 at 1:51 PM #50
david from wyoming
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"We should bazooka Virginia

"We should bazooka Virginia off the map"

Can you do me a favor and look up "upset" in the dictionary?

Are you a park ranger at Yellowstone? Say hi to Yogi Bear for me.

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