Magnus being excited about a recruit is extremely rare, and i can see him actually doing that dance
Hokepoints: What's a 5-Star Running Back?
Green / Grady / Woodson
Like many of my generation, I had a little thing when Ace finally posted the long-awaited Hello: Derrick Green post. Like he was all…
And the board was all…
And even Magnus was all…
And I was all…well, nothing that would make for an interesting gif. You kids won't remember this but we've had a five-star tailback commit before. And we got really excited. Like We Beat the Russians to the Moon, except fast-excited. And that was right before a Des-pose'd NCAA 2006 arrived with a new mode where you create a freshman and run him to a Heisman. We were all Grady.
But we were all of us deceived.
The high schooler who plowed through the state turned out to be Thomas Rawls except not fast. Grady was given a lot of chances, especially early, but peaked as a fumble-prone, #2 guy to Hart. The meat of his career was spent nursing an ACL tear that won him his medical redshirt, and flirting with the edge of the Darryl Stonum outer boundary of tolerable off-the-field stuff. He finished his eligibility as a fullback in the 2009 outfit with 783 yards, a 3.9 YPC and 10 TDs.
That's a respectable enough career for a blue collar fullback, but not a blue chip. It's also way too small a sample size to justify acting like a wet blanket over Michigan's first five-star RB since the first Grady.
It is well to remember that we had a lot of highly rated backs before stars became a thing, for example Charles Woodson was one according to a Lloyd interview on one of the videotapes I bought when the video store in the Union closed. A-Train was Prep Football Report's #2 back in the nation. Wheatley in high school was the best all-around athlete the state of Michigan had seen since Harmon. Tom Harmon…well this is why we keep things to recent memory. What we need is more samples. To the rest of the NCAA!
(…where gordie bell just traveled, kinda. His stuff is just off Rivals, and includes four-stars, and is mostly a bunch of lists. Aw heck just read both. And JUMP)
What We're Talking About
To the people who decide such things, Derrick Green is an elite running back. He's a five-star, the #1 overall running back and a top 10 overall player to both Rivals and Scout. ESPN has him a 4-star with an 87 rating, the 5th RB and 38th overall prospect. 247 Sports has him a 4-star, the eighth RB, and 84th player overall. Ignoring 247 since their first class with rankings is 2010, Green is one of just 50 players since 2002 to get five-star billing on at least two of Rivals/Scout/ESPN (the latter's been in it since 2006).
Specifically he's the "running" kind of five-star running back, by which I mean some of the services like to break tailbacks into "all-purpose" and "running" backs. It gets confusing when you see some of the previous listings (e.g. Hart is all-purpose), but in general an APB is a spread- or scat-back, while the larger category is for NFL-style thunder walkers. Green, no doubt you've heard, is thunder.
Removing the lighting-style guys like C.J. Spiller and Noel Devine, we are left with the following Green comparables:
|Rivals Name||School||Year||R||S||E||Yds||Yds Pace||YPA||TDs Pace||NFL Pick|
|T.J. Yeldon||Bama||2012||5||4||4||1,239||4,956||6.7||52||in college|
|Marcus Lattimore||S Carolina||2010||5||4||4||3,444||4,592||5.5||55||in college|
|Beanie Wells||Ohio State||2006||5||5||5||3,466||3,466||5.8||30||31|
|Johnathan Gray||Texas||2012||5||5||5||852||3,408||5.3||16||in college|
|Jerious Norwood||Miss St||2002||5||4||-||3,398||3,398||5.5||17||79|
|Michael Dyer||Auburn||2010||5||5||5||2,351||3,135||5.5||20||in college|
|Malcolm Brown||Texas||2011||5||5||5||1,195||2,390||4.8||20||in college|
|Lache Seastrunk||Baylor||2010||5||4||4||1,119||2,238||8.0||16||in college|
|Gerald Riggs Jr.||Tenn||2002||5||5||-||2,016||2,016||5.0||10||undrafted|
|James Wilder Jr.||Florida St||2011||5||4||4||955||1,910||5.8||28||in college|
|Maurice Clarett||Ohio State||2002||5||5||-||1,341||1,341||5.7||18||101|
|Demetris Summers||S Carolina||2003||5||5||-||1,336||1,336||5.7||6||undrafted|
|Isaiah Crowell||Georgia||2011||5||5||5||909||909||4.7||6||in J.C.|
|Brandon Williams||Oklahoma||2011||5||4||4||219||876||4.8||0||in college|
|Aaron Green||Nebraska||2011||4||5||5||130||520||5.2||12||in college|
|Mike Bellamy||Clemson||2011||5||4||4||347||347||5.9||3||in J.C.|
|Jermie Calhoun||Oklahoma||2008||5||5||5||278||278||4.6||1||in J.C.|
|Jason Gwaltney||W Virginia||2005||5||5||-||201||201||4.1||3||undrafted|
That is 34 nodes, over half of whom were drafted or are on track to be, and most of those who went undrafted ended up on NFL teams. You'd expect a five-star to be more than an undrafted free agent; a lot of those guys became so because of something other than talent.
A quick review of the undrafted, the unwanted, and the other guys on this list who didn't Meet Expectations:
- Marlon Lucky had a solid career that peaked junior year. A senior year injury dropped him out of the draft. He's now in the top indoor league.
- Gerald Riggs was half of Tennessee's 1-2 punch with Cedric Houston. Riggs got injured as a senior and that put him out of draft range. He's now with the Toronto Argonauts.
- Marc Tyler, Jimmy Clausen the RB version, scraped out a 1,000 yard season between more remarkable USC tailbacks, had a bunch of off-field issues through senior year that kept him from ever being more than Guy #2 in a crowded backfield. Undrafted, he will probably pop up on somebody's practice squad next year.
- Kregg Lumpkin was the uninspiring back who finally got Knowshon'd out of carries at Georgia. He's now finding work as an NFL journeyman for teams who use up their running backs.
- Stafon Johnson, you've probably heard of. He had a horrific neck injury that inspired USC's "STA FIGHT ON" stickers, until Sta forwent a medical redshirt senior year and sued SC for negligence. Sta Fight On!
- Darrell Scott had the quite silly idea to attend Colorado out of high school. He was a bit of a bust, complaining he wasn't getting carries when a 2-star competed them away from him. Scott put up a decent (814 yards, 5.3 YPC, 5 TDs) season at South Florida then split for the NFL.
- Demetris Summers, that dude from Alberta who somehow ended up playing for Spurrier, got lots of touches as a freshman but got kicked off the team for poking the smot.
- James Aldridge was recruited by Charlie Weis for the Return to Glory™, spending most of his career choosing between unblocked defenders who persistently broke through Weis-era offensive lines, and collecting ensuing Clausen fumbles, all fantastic preparation for a career in rugby.
- Jermie Calhoun didn't become the next Adrian Peterson. After two years of not being able to crack the depth chart he transferred.
- Isaiah Crowell rushed for over 900 yards as a freshman, but was behind the Dogs' dynamic freshmen, and anyway he was kicked off the team for a weapons charge. He was at Alabama State last year.
- Jason Gwaltney is a name once brought up by Rich Rod detractors as an example of kids he took a chance on at West Virginia that wouldn't fly at Michigan, and RR defenders as a guy Rod reeled in over offers from OSU and USC. An injury ended his freshman year when he was losing the competition with fellow freshman Steve Slaton, then he slacked on the rehab, tried to go play for USC, and ended up non-schollied at a Division III school.
- Mike Bellamy was dismissed from Clemson for skipping too many classes.
To this you're welcome to add a Bryce Brown or whatnot from guys who seem to be en route to mediocre backs. But notice anything missing? Very few of these guys were busts, and if they were, it seemed to come from a lack of effort, not talent. I don't want to glory in these failures, just point out that talent evaluation at this position seems to be remarkably accurate.
Realm of the young
Running back is still the first position you think of when you figure a freshman has a chance of making a major impact on the depth chart, and that plays out when you see how many of the five-stars managed to churn out 700+ yard seasons in their first go-rounds:
|Rivals Name||School||Year||R||S||E||Fr Yds||Fr YPC|
|Marcus Lattimore||S Carolina||2010||5||4||4||1,609||5.8|
|Maurice Clarett||Ohio State||2002||5||5||-||1,341||5.7|
|Christine Michael||Texas A&M||2009||5||4||4||910||5.0|
|Demetris Summers||S Carolina||2003||5||5||-||784||5.8|
|Beanie Wells||Ohio State||2006||5||5||592||5.6|
If you were worried about Grady being some kind of median for what you can expect from a Green, this is encouraging. A good third of this list contributed 3,000+ yards to their teams (or are on pace to). Half are NFL draftees. Many of the guys who didn't make it were because of discipline issues, not misjudged talent. When compared to the offensive linemen, this is a position with a very high predictive success rate.
I like this finding, since it fits with personal observations that running backs, if they mature with age, don't develop nearly as much as the other positions. Mike Hart got better at leadership and maybe could diagnose a lane a little better, but he arrived a 185-pound, 200 yards per game, fumbless dude who can shimmy-cut past a guy; minus a pair of functional ankles he more or less graduated a 200-lb version of the same dude. They might learn blocking as they age but it's probably more common to see a freshman with 300 touches than a heretofore unknown redshirt junior leap out of a depth chart if he wasn't injured, transferring, or stuck behind another major guy. They still have their best seasons as upperclassmen, but a great 23-year-old seems to be pretty close to great at 19.
So Green = Awesome is Go, right?
Let's not say that; let's say it negates the old "early growth spurt means he's already too near his ceiling" fear. What the services seem to mean by a 5-star running back is a ready-made more-than-just-a guy who can plug into an offense with minimal rewriting. Heismans and 1,500 yard rushers are notoriously difficult to come by, even if you're manufacturing 350-lb. offensive linemen from cheese and Ted Nugent albums. But if you're going to have the best overall player from any one position, this spot seems to give you the greatest chance of actually coming away with the best overall player from that position.
Speaking of the Nation's Top…
The ESPN and 247 rankings shouldn't be discarded, however they don't change the fact that Green is also just the sixth guy since '02 to be the No. 1 running back to both Rivals and Scout. His company:
|Rivals Name||Year||Ht||Wt||40yd||Yards||YPA||TD||1K+ YDs||Drafted (Rnd)|
|Adrian Peterson||2004||6'2"||210||4.4||4243||5.5||42||3x||7th (1st)|
|Joe McKnight||2007||6'1"||193||4.4||2755||6.7||15||1x||112th (4th)|
|Bryce Brown||2009||6'0"||215||4.4||616||5.4||4||never||229th (7th)|
|Marcus Lattimore||2010||6'0"||210||4.5||3444||5.5||41||x||in college|
Green's 40-time has to be more FAKE than Peterson's. Still, when I posted that I got a little shiver. ESPN was maybe rougher on Lattimore (84 rating, 4 stars, #2 RB) than Green, though 247 (98 rating, 5 stars, #2 APB and #16 overall) just ended that comparison like a Vincent Smith ISO. If the naysayers are correct, they're still talking about a ready-made, better-than-okay player for 2013, with an upside peaking into the Heismanosphere.
Okay I'm ready to dance now.
That's actually my go-to move in da club.
Magnus as judge banks is tremendous, love it.
I dunno. Whenever I read a comment from Magnus I always picture him like this:
Except he's wearing a whistle and Bike coaching shorts from 1985.
"You fail to impress me, five stars." -Magnus*
* = hypothetical Magnus; plz don't kill me Magnus
If you've got it, flaunt it.
That is SUCH an Anton Ego thing to say...
What does FAKE stand for?
"Fake," but with EMPHASIS!!!
1 [feyk] Show IPA verb, faked, fak·ing, noun, adjective
Where's Busey for this?
That was the best write-up I've read in a long time.
That was the best write-up I've read in a long time.
So good and positive that it needed to be noted as such twice! +1
Green should be good. But in the off-chance he turns out to be Grady2.0 you can now say I told you so?
If you only read the first 1/4 of the post, then yes. If you read the rest, then no. He's saying there is a fear among Michigan fans that Green could bust like Grady. However, when looking at past recent instances of someone that runs like Green and is as highly regarded as a RB recruit, Grady is more the floor than the median. It's highly unlikely, given past scenarios that resemble this one, that Green is going to be a bust, and likely that he will be at worst a quick solid contributor.
Has any analysis been done on the cast of characters that past 5-stars had around them?
As we all know, a good offensive line goes a long way towards making a good running back.
Also, a good QB and competent receivers can prevent defenses from filling the box to stop the run.
I haven't seen a multivariate analysis on this, but it would be interesting if there are enough data.
I think the NFL draft position kind of serves as a proxy for a back's supporting cast. If there is a really good back, the League is probably going to find him even if he's stuck on a lousy team and not posting great stats. Similarly, a mediocre player who accumulates a ton of yards and TDs because of a great OL probably won't go so high in the draft.
The ESPN rankings might be hard to compare, because they ranked on a different scale when Lattimore went through. His 84 ranking would be like 89 or 90 now.
"misses" were guys with off-field issues or on-field attitude problems. Green should have neither - he seems like a grounded kid with a great family unit.
Green isn't quite as freakish of an athlete as Peterson or Bush or Yeldon, but he is certainly equal or better vs Clarett or Dyer or Michael or Crowell.
Seth has me believing a 1,000 yard freshman campaign is very possible ...
Ugh... I just realized the only downside to this dude is his name. How can you cheer for him up in Spartyland?
Whelp. I guess it can be overlooked.
Go Blue! Go Green! GO BEAT ALL THE TEAMS!
I see this as pure upside. Within four years, the word "Green" will be synonymous with the University of Michigan, and we'll have taken even that from Sparty.
As if they needed another thing to bitch about,
Hahaha. Spartans doing go green, go white against us will be just so grand!
Listen, you guys figured out how to root for a team called 'Slippery Rock' with a modicum of class...I am sure you can figure this out.
Go Green, the true Green.
Go (Derrick) Green; you can keep (Lorenzo) White.
"The True Green"? I think we'll gladly leave that chant to our friends in E. Lansing.
So many turf management jokes, so little time:
Ah, cross, between Kentucky bluegrass, featherbed bent, and Northern California sensimilia. The amazing stuff about this is, you can play 36 holes on it in the afternoon, take it home and just get stoned to the bejeezus-belt that nighton this stuff.
And even Magnus was all...
lol Magnus and his skepticism. But you know he had to do a little giggy with this commit.
would you say he got "jiggy" with it?
More like jiggly with it.
Giggly. I like to picture Magnus giggling as he comments in this thread.
A wooden putter?
C'mon, prop-dude - you're just not trying.
The ol' Billy Baroo was a wooden putter, afterall...
Looking at Green's weight loss in High School and his parental involvement thus far, he seems like a driven, high character guy who is unlikely to have slacker issues at Michigan.
The other thing is improved line play. I am looking at the following starting:
- Bryant or another
We won't know until they hit the field, but particularly with the return of Lewan, I am expecting a line upgrade this year, only to improve in coming years. We have eight scholarship players who have at least had a redshirt, and four of those have either played or been around two years. Behind those eight are six who should redshirt. In addition, our tight ends are solidifying, and should be able to contribute more in the way of blocking going forward.
I really wonder how much RB success is tied to line play. As I think of successful teams at Alabama, Wisconsin, and USC, it often was directly related to the O line. It causes me to wonder how much of Hart's success was connected to Michigan's line.
In addition, with all the euphoria over Green, we also have DeVeon Smith, who other posters have raved about. I don't know much about Rawls, Hayes, and Shallman, but I can't help wonder if improved line play will help them a lot too.
. It causes me to wonder how much of Hart's success was connected to Michigan's line.
That entire offense was MIke hart, Chad Henne, Jake Long, 86=1, Arrington at times and a bucket of balls.
Through Hart's various injuries and breathers over his four years, it was abundantly clear that he was the only guy that could run behind his line. All of the backups were substantially less successful over all 4 years. Hart's success was not a product of his OL.
It was just like Denard running in 2012--he was the only one that could find running lanes.
The OL should improve the running game simply because the inside 3 performed poorly in 2012 (equal problems skill and technique) and Kalis-Miller-Bryant possess mauler attitudes.
This group (with 5* Green and senior Fitz) has the talent to be tremendous. IMO, it seems the spotlight is really on Coach Funk this year.
"I am expecting a line upgrade this year, only to improve in coming years."
I agree that the line will improve long-term, but probably not from 2013-2014. Even with player development and all that, replacing Lewan and Schofield will be a difficult task. I don't think that year-to-year improvement from guys like Kalis, Miller, Braden, etc. will be able to compensate for those losses.
No way of proving this.... absolute opinion. Looking at video of Green when he was in 9th grade from a combine they said he was 230 - the story is he was actually at 250 initially (8th grade?). That is a physically mature kid in that video already from 4 years ago. Now he's around 220 and well, chiselled. I think he may be near his physical upside.... not necessarilly skill upside which might be the difference in these scenarios. You are not going to pack on pounds on a frame like his without it being detrimental - he isn't exactly "rangy". He's going to really have to manage his weight which is perfect but he may be flirting with wanting to add some crap pounds throughout his tenure. Smith looks to have the frame to add some good weight but I don't see him being more than 220 if ever that. So, with this class you have a 210 ish, 220ish, and a bigger "back" around 245 (who still looks lean). Overall good scale of athletes and it bodes well if for nothing than an appreciation of kinetic energy. I think Green will do very well at Michigan, but I think he may be locked physically into the range he is (which isn't bad either)
Funny but I lke Deveon Smith's film, better than Greens.
but Green is bigger, faster, and played against much better competition.
I love Smith's film. He simply dominates. I hear it's against poor competition, but he does everything I'd expect him to do against that level of competition. The competition may be bad but in some of those he takes pretty significant hits and keeps churning out tough yards. It's not like he had gigantic holes to run through and simply ran past everyone (actually that's what I thought when I watched Ty Issac's video - he never gets touched at the LOS and has massive holes to run through so I found it hard to judge his ability other than speed). A solid hit from poor competition is still a solid hit, and he deals with those without any problem. I think speed if too often overrated (see guys like Terrell Davis, Emmitt Smith, M. Clarett, and Mike Hart none of whom were particulary fast). Speed can make an amazing back elite, but it can't find a hole or get that 2 extra yards after contact. I think Smith has great potential. I may be wrong as I'm no expert but I think he's an absolute steal.
My first take on Green from his Junior video was Kevin Grady 2.0. I remember seeing Grady's video and being worried that he didn't have much vision or ability to make people miss. He trucked people and ran through contact fine but I worried that wouldn't translate to college (and unfortunately I was correct as oppossed to other guys I've been dead wrong about). That was my first assessment of Green too. Then I saw his senior video and my mind has changed. He finds every hole, break tackles and seems to have good if not great speed. It's a highlight reel so I take it with a grain of salt, but compared to his junior highlights he just looks amazing.
I'm really excited as I think we have 2 backs with really great potential - hopefully 1 or both are as good as they look to my untrained eye. Both seem dedicated to competing and if they push each other to be better it's all the better.
except for a game i believe they were all blowout wins for Hermatige. Is that because of Green or shitty opponents? I don't know, maybe somebody knows something about that league.
Living not too far north of Richmond, VA, I have some perspective -- albeit minor. I only paid attention 'cause the H.S. my kids go to is in the same playoff division. Green's school played (exceptionally) well against league opponents. Yes, they pretty much blew out the competition, with their only loss this season coming to LC Bird H.S. by a score of 24-20 in the opening round of the playoffs(LC Bird went on to be state champs in their division) . Green had two rushing TDs in the game, on 19 carries for 79 yds. In the end, Hermitage was #9 in Virginia, five spots ahead of CD Hylton -- and former UM recruit EJ Levenberry. I can't speak to any history of the Hermitage program.
+ 1 you. Well thought out, and i agree with just about all of it.
Nice analysis. Thanks.
Grady will always be known as the Fumblator in my book. He seemed to have so much more potential than Mike Hart, but there you go.
If I were good enough I would have played at Michigan even if they ran the hampster dance offense. I can't help but think that if Grady played in a more MANBALL offense, he would have worked out his fumble issues, attitude, and dobe much better the more he touched the ball. But then richrod happened. Still Grady is responsible for himself but he could have been better. Green comes in at an optimal time and is a great fit. I think will do well