Hokepoints on Redshirts 2013
I was asked the other day which of the freshmen would redshirt and I was like "ooh I'll Hokepoints that." Then I realized I wrote something on this last year,.
What it is: redshirting comes from the five-to-play-four rule. As written:
14.2.1 Five-Year Rule - A student-athlete shall complete his or her seasons of participation within five calendar years from the beginning of the semester or quarter in which the student-athlete first registered for a minimum full-time program of studies in a collegiate institution, with time spent in the armed services, on official church missions or with recognized foreign aid services of the U.S. government being excepted. For foreign students, service in the armed forces or on an official church mission of the student's home country is considered equivalent to such service in the United States.
14.2.3.5 Participation after 21st Birthday - Any participation as an individual or a team representative in organized sports competition by a student during each 12-month period after the student's 21st birthday and prior to initial full-time enrollment in a collegiate institution shall count as one year of varsity competition in that sport. Participation in organized competition during time spent in the U.S. armed services shall be excepted.
This is the 2010 version of the 1996 version of the 1986 "prop 48" that codified a rule going back to one of the NCAA's original guidelines from 1910. One of the first rules of the fledgling Big Ten was to require a year of residency at the school before competing. As the NCAA reformed through the 1930s the five-to-play-four thing was codified. Nebraska legend claims the first redshirt (they would), when Warren Alfson asked to sit out 1937, his sophomore year. The term comes from the color of the shirt scout teamers at some team wore—too many schools claim to be the origin for us to know which it was.
2012 Update: Among last year's guys, Clark, Gant, Strobel, Wormely, Godin, Henry, Ringer (no longer with team), Bars, Braden, Kalis, Magnuson, Drake Johnson, and Chesson made it through with their redshirts intact. Wilson, Pipkins, Bolden, Ross, Norfleet, Funchess, A.J. Williams, and Darboh played often, and Richardson, Ojemudia, Jenkins-Stone and Houma had theirs burned on special teams or backup duties or because Frank Clark got himself benched for a game. Gardner received his medical redshirt, and Countess put in for what will almost assuredly be his. Hagerup will have 2013 count for him.
Michigan's Redshirting History
My data goes back to 1993 because that's how far back Mike DeSimone goes and I used him to extend my database beyond my fan memory.
Class | Recruits | DNE | RS'ed* | % of class** |
---|---|---|---|---|
1993 | 23 | 17 | 74% | |
1994 | 22 | 19 | 86% | |
1995 | 19 | 14 | 74% | |
1996 | 20 | 14 | 70% | |
1997 | 18 | 10 | 56% | |
1998 | 19 | 10 | 53% | |
1999 | 23 | 19 | 83% | |
2000 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 72% |
2001 | 21 | 15 (+1) | 71% | |
2002 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 70% |
2003 | 16 | 9 (+1) | 56% | |
2004 | 24 | 18 | 75% | |
2005 | 24 | 13 (+2) | 54% | |
2006 | 21 | 1 | 11 (+1) | 55% |
2007 | 23 | 11 (+3) | 48% | |
2008 | 25 | 2 | 14 (+1) | 61% |
2009 | 23 | 1 | 14 | 64% |
2010 | 27 | 4 | 12 (+1) | 52% |
2011 | 21 | 2 | 11 (+1) | 58% |
2012 | 25 | 13 | 52% | |
Total | 434 | 12 | 271 (+12) | 64% |
* Those parenthetical +'s are medical hardship redshirts or mid-career transfer years, e.g. the three for 2007 are Woolfolk, Hemingway and Threet.
** % of those enrolled who redshirted as freshmen
DNE=Did not enroll
We're guessing non-qualifiers were a problem solved by the regime change and this staff's tendency to target guys who spend their weekends doing nothing but homework and helping old ladies cross the street. Anyway they happen before the redshirt decision is made so I've removed them from the numbers. We see some fluctuating, where anywhere between a half and 86% of a class is shirted. In chart form (click biggets):
As you figured, position matters.
Position | Recruited | Redshirted | % |
---|---|---|---|
Quarterbacks | 21 | 13 | 61.9% |
Running Backs | 33 | 12 | 36.4% |
Fullbacks | 19 | 10 | 52.6% |
Receivers | 42 | 22 | 52.4% |
Tight Ends | 27 | 21 | 77.8% |
Off Linemen | 72 | 69 | 95.8% |
Def Tackles | 31 | 17 | 54.8% |
Def Ends | 36 | 24 | 66.7% |
Linebackers | 55 | 37 | 67.3% |
Safeties | 32 | 18 | 56.3% |
Corners | 36 | 14 | 38.9% |
Specialists | 18 | 14 | 77.8% |
Cornerbacks and running backs tend to play right away. Receivers, safeties, fullbacks and defensive linemen play if they're big enough. Quarterbacks, linebackers, ends and tight ends are shirted if possible while they bulk up. Offensive linemen nearly always redshirt.
Hype matters too. I only have average stars to whatever sites in my database back to the class of '97 but that'll do:
Stars | Recruits | RS'ed | % |
---|---|---|---|
★★★★★ | 21 | 6 | 28.6% |
★★★★.5 | 29 | 19 | 65.5% |
★★★★ | 84 | 46 | 54.8% |
★★★.5 | 89 | 57 | 64.0% |
★★★ | 94 | 60 | 63.8% |
★★.5 | 24 | 17 | 70.8% |
★★ | 7 | 6 | 85.7% |
Walk-on | 10 | 10 | 100.0% |
Predicting the Class of 2013
Player | Pos (RS rate) | Stars | RS?? | Reason? |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Bosch | OL (96%) | ★★★★ | yes | Is OL. However early enrollee and 2nd in this class to play if needed. |
Jake Butt | TE (78%) | ★★★★ | no | EE. Could use poundage but Funchess and Williams only guys ahead |
Taco Charlton | DE (67%) | ★★★★ | no | Beyer's move to SAM puts Taco on the three-deep at WDE, a rotational position |
David Dawson | OL (96%) | ★★★★ | yes | Is OL |
Reon Dawson | CB (39%) | ★★★ | yes | One of them has to. |
Ross Douglas | CB (39%) | ★★★.5 | no | EE and at least one of the young corners will play. |
Jaron Dukes | WR (52%) | ★★★.5 | yes | Either he or York will probably play this year. |
Chris Fox | OL (96%) | ★★★★ | yes | Is OL |
Ben Gedeon | LB (67%) | ★★★★ | yes | LB depth is finally good enough we can RS these guys. |
Derrick Green | RB (36%) | ★★★★★ | no | Probably #2 on depth chart right now. |
Delano Hill | SS (56%) | ★★★.5 | yes | May crack the depth chart w/ M-Rob's departure but there should be enough guys ahead. |
Khalid Hill | TE (78%) | ★★★ | no | They played Houma last year and Hill is a weapon Borges can't wait to deploy. |
Maurice Hurst Jr. | DT (55%) | ★★★.5 | yes | If one of QWash,Pipkins or Henry may need freshman NT, otherwise RS. |
Da'Mario Jones | WR (52%) | ★★★ | yes | Is the slot of the WRs; there's two seniors there now (Dileo & Jackson) |
Patrick Kugler | OL (96%) | ★★★★.5 | yes | Is OL but could be in the mix; if he's not ahead of both Miller & Glasgow he should shirt. Burzynski can be 3rd guy at C. |
Jourdan Lewis | CB (39%) | ★★★★ | no | Corners play early, or get wasted on punt coverage. |
Mike McCray | LB (67%) | ★★★★ | yes | See Gedeon |
Shane Morris | QB (62%) | ★★★★.5 | no | Death to ACLs |
Henry Poggi | DT (55%) | ★★★★ | yes | Is the more 3T of the freshmen, so lots of options ahead of him. |
Dan Samuelson | OL (96%) | ★★★.5 | yes | Is OL, needs to develop as a pass blocker. |
Wyatt Shallman | RB (36%) | ★★★.5 | yes | Will RS while they find a position for him. |
Deveon Smith | RB (36%) | ★★★.5 | no | RBs play early, will pass Rawls by end of season as #2 thumperback. |
Channing Stribling | CB/S (39%) | ★★★ | yes | Skinny and positionally unsure but probably will be wasted on special teams. |
Scott Sypniewski | LS (96%) | n/a | yes | Glanda still here. |
Dymonte Thomas | S (56%) | ★★★★.5 | no | Already the starting nickel |
Logan Tuley-Tillman | OL (96%) | ★★★★ | yes | Is OL, developmental prospect, a lock. |
Csont'e York | WR (52%) | ★★★ | no | One of the receivers will have to play at least, York seems most polished. |
= Redshirt
Seeing some of these huge guys coming out of high school - it's scary to think they have to get BIGGER and STRONGER to see the field. These guys are ready-made monsters in training. Great to see the depth increase where we CAN do this.
MOAR OL!
If the guy's already at playing weight, then weight's probably not the issue. Some of these guys have 30 pounds or so to gain, but 30 pounds is manageable if you have a whole year. The problem -- and mind you this is a nice problem to have -- is that a lot of these kids have already outgrown their competition, making them as raw as tossed salad. Take the OL recruits, for example. Let's kind of set aside the tradition of redshirting linemen and ask ourselves why it happens at all. Well, even if a kid's open to learning technique, it's hard to elevate your game when you're so big and strong that you can dominate with a bull rush. I mean, if you pop a guy at the snap and he flies backwards off the line, what more do you do with that besides donkey him 10 yards upfield?
I remember some quotes about RS O-linemen on the scout team facing Mike Martin in practice -- they expressed it as intensely frustrating. But there's the rub. Coaching matters, but you'd learn a lot more in a few practices getting clobbered by Mike Martin than pancaking HS competition for four years (assuming your arms stay in their sockets).
putting these charts together!
This is great. Another thing to look at might be whether redshirts are sigificantly less common for early enrollees.
talk - they come to Michigan to major in footbaw!
Yeah.
Of those who played as freshmen, 62.9% played out their eligibility or are still on the team. Of those who redshirted, 63.8% played out their eligibility. However about 8.9% of those who redshirted from the classes of 1993 to 2009 (this year's 5th year seniors) I had categorized as Unrenewed 5ths.
Here's the career summaries of Michigan recruits from the 1993-2012 classes (click enbiggigens):
Career Summary | RS'd as Fr | % of all RS | Played | % of all True F | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coach Transfer | 4 | 1.5% | 3 | 2.0% | 7 |
Dismissed from team | 6 | 2.2% | 16 | 10.6% | 22 |
Gave up football | 10 | 3.7% | 5 | 3.3% | 15 |
Personal transfer | 5 | 1.8% | 7 | 4.6% | 12 |
Playing time transfer | 25 | 9.2% | 16 | 10.6% | 41 |
Medical | 22 | 8.1% | 2 | 1.3% | 24 |
Unrenewed 5th | 21 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 21 | |
Early NFL | 4 | 1.5% | 7 | 4.6% | 11 |
Played out eligibility | 139 | 51.3% | 71 | 47.0% | 210 |
On Team | 35 | 12.9% | 24 | 15.9% | 59 |
Total | 271 | 100.0% | 151 | 100.0% | 422 |
Redshirts are more likely to be medicaled, probably because a lot of times because those injuries caused the redshirt. Most playing time transfers were from redshirted guysFor some reason the dismissals were higher among those who played as true freshmen so perhaps that year to get used to being in college helps a lot.
Dismissals who redshirted:
Isaiah Bell, Austin White, Sean Sanderson, Kelly Baraka, Ryan Beard, Jason Brooks
Dismissals who played as true freshmen:
Darryl Stonum, Tate Forcier, Boubacar Cissoko, Justin Feagin, Ziob Babb, Jason Kates, Marques Slocum, James McKinney, Eugene Germany, Johnny Sears, Chris Richards, Jim Presley, Larry "Let's not talk about it" Harrison, Demetrius Smith, Ray Jackson, and William Peterson.
Looking at those lists the redshirts, the only one who wasn't redshirted because of the off-field issue that would eventually get them dismissed is Isaiah Bell; even in Bell's case the thing that got him removed from the team--not having his heart in it, which is not exactly a terrible offense--was still the thing that got him redshirted at a time when Michigan was playing every defensive back with a pulse. If you're squinting, there is evidence here that some of the names above might have benefited from a redshirt year to adjust to college life.
Wow you used data from 1993 ...
I wasn't even born, that's why I love this site ! Great work !
Is when they lowered the scholarship limit to 85. So as you transitioned over the years you needed more bodies to play, and couldn't stockpile them to develop. Less people in front of them to keep the really good guys from playing too.
I remember looking at the two-deep on VT's team before the Sugar Bowl and realizing one of the ways Beamer was able to win so many games so consistently was his use of redshirting. In almost every position, at least one guy on the two-deep had been in his system for three or more years. Yes, there were the athletic underclassmen who sometimes started ahead of a more experienced player, but if something happened, he had the option of bringing in a guy with a ton of experience. That VT Sugar Bowl O-line had like three or four starters who were in their fifth year, and I believe all were drafted by the NFL as well. Obviously it takes more than just red shirting to build depth, but it sure helps, and I'm glad to see Hoke desiring and being able to red shirt so many.
redshirting is key in the reload not rebuild style of college football. look at wisky rolling out a new oline every year or two and still plowing the way for thousand yard backs each year. being able to bring in quality depth and keep it around for years is how teams stay at the top for more than a season or two. teams that shoot up and then dissappear are usually because they landed a solid class or two but couldnt consistently recruit/build that depth.
I remember looking at the two-deep on VT's team before the Sugar Bowl and realizing one of the ways Beamer was able to win so many games so consistently was his use of redshirting. In almost every position, at least one guy on the two-deep had been in his system for three or more years. Yes, there were the athletic underclassmen who sometimes started ahead of a more experienced player, but if something happened, he had the option of bringing in a guy with a ton of experience. That VT Sugar Bowl O-line had like three or four starters who were in their fifth year, and I believe all were drafted by the NFL as well. Obviously it takes more than just red shirting to build depth, but it sure helps, and I'm glad to see Hoke desiring and being able to red shirt so many.
Agree on all of the redshirting predictions except I see DeMario Jones seeing the field and not York. Can't wait to see what Derrick Green will do this fall!
I admit I'm throwing darts a bit here, but I'm not going off of who I think is the better athlete--just who plays a position that could be needed sooner. Flanker has Jeremy Gallon playing the majority of snaps, and Jehu Chesson getting the bulk of the rest of them, with Joe Reynolds around to be another guy. The slot has Dileo and Jackson plus moonlights from all the other receivers. But split end is Darboh and...? Bo Dever was practicing there in spring. So I went with the X-iest guy among the freshmen, which is York.
between the percentage that is redshirted and the our record 2-3 years later. It seems that our records were relatively good 2-3 years after a significant redshirted class.
York will probably redshirt, and either Dukes or DaMario Jones will play as a true frosh. I'm trusting in Ace's analysis (from the signing day podcast) on this one.
Death to ACLs
I hope you mean "Death to ACL tears."
Please fix this before something terrible happens.
Too late-- Purdue's entire backfield just went down.
Perdue's meat always struck me as somewhat off.
They allow me to blackout for at least an hour speculating and daydreaming about the future of Michigan Football.
Thank you Seth.
FYI --- Any way Morris is the #2 QB in practice, gets #2 reps, but they hold him out of games unless (God forbid) it's a meaningful snap? Like I always say...going up against out #1 defense in practice is more meaningful than going up against Directional Michigan's backups in a game.
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