Hokepoints: The Difference a Devin Makes Comment Count

Seth

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A good idea. / Also a good idea. / Not a good idea. (Upchurch)

Before we begin, since this is a Denard/Gardner comparison post, let's get this part out of the way:

Is Gardner a palatable Big Ten QB?

Absolutely.

Is Gardner a good QB?

Yes, I really think so.

So even if Denard is 100 percent…

NO!!! Two good starts from our 2013 starting signalcaller, albeit against two of the conference's worst pass defenses, are good things. Let's not ruin them by allowing the kind of people who see the world in Tall-Passer-Lloydball Pearl and Small-Scrambly-Spreadrod Onyx to, you know, start all that again.

But I am interested in knowing just how good Gardner has played. I'm also interested in how everything else about our offense changed when Gardner went in for Denard, and how defenses reacted to it. What did it do to the receiver corps to lose him, and what to the formations and personnel? 2012 is nice and all but I want to know what 2013 is going to look like now! Since this week was a better test and a better performance to the eye than what he did against Minnesota after one week of not being a receiver, I think we need Northwestern data. In fact I was so impatient I decided to not wait for Brian to UFR the offense this week and did it myself…in a mini version.

Shosho:

Drive 1:

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
M25 1 10 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 over Pass 7 CA
M32 2 3 Ace 1 3 2 4-3 over Run 6 -
M38 1 10 Pro 2 1 2 4-3 over Pass Inc BA
M38 2 10 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Run 0 -
M38 3 10 Shotgun 1 0 4 Okie Pass Inc DO
5 plays, 13 yards, 13 mins left in the 1st quarter. Score: 0-0

We establish a few things, like Michigan is going under center, and Northwestern is going to defend that with the 4-3 over, and even 6'4 quarterbacks get batted sometimes. Easy out to Gallon that was still open all day, one batted, one perfect downfield throw on a blitz that was dropped by Jerald Robinson. Northwestern gives up on blitzing for the rest of the day. Michigan gives up on receivers.

Drive 2: Borges makes it rain RPS…

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
M22 1 10 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass 6 CA
M28 2 4 Shotgun 2 1 2 4-3 over Run -6 -
M22 3 10 Shotgun 1 0 4 Nickel even Pass 10 DO
M32 1 10 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass 5 SCR
M37 2 5 Shotgun 1 1 3 Nickel even Run 3 -
M40 3 3 Shotgun 2 0 3 Nickel even Pass 4 SCR
M44 1 10 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Run -5 -
M39 2 15 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass 32 CA
O31 1 10 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Penalty 5 NC
O26 1 5 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Penalty 17 NC
O9 1 10 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Run 0 -
O9 2 10 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass 9 SCR

10 plays, 78 yards, 2:30 left in the 1st quarter. Score: 7-0 Michigan.

This is the drive when Michigan started inserting superfluous apostrophes into the snap count (Wilcat's HATE that!). Note the CA on the 32-yard pass to Roundtree. That's close to "MA" since it's behind the receiver, but not so much that it changed Roundtree's momentum when he reached back to get it. Also note that NW's cornerback is awful.

[The rest of the drives, and how this and the other Gardner game compare to the Denard ones, after THE JUMP]

Drive 3: Michigan's first drive of the 2nd quarter.

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
M33 1 10 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 over Run 4 -
M37 2 6 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass 0 BA
M37 3 6 Shotgun 1 0 4 Nickel even Pass 8 SCR
M46 1 10 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Run 0 -
M46 2 10 Shotgun 1 1 3 4-3 over Run 51 -

5 plays, 64 yards. The 1st quarter started after the 3rd and 6 scramble, so 14 mins left in the 2nd quarter. Score: 7-7.

Yet another magnificent scramble on 3rd down. When Michigan next went to shotgun NW opened up the edge and Toussaint hit it for 50 yards...then fumbled.

Drive 4:

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
O37 1 10 I-Form 2 1 2 4-4 over Pass 2 SCR
O35 2 8 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 over Pass 8 CA
O27 1 10 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 over Run -2 -
O29 2 12 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Pass Inc IN
O29 3 12 Shotgun 1 0 4 3-3-5 nickel Pass 18 SCR
O11 1 10 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Run 5 -
O7 2 5 Shotgun 2 1 2 4-3 over Run 4 -
O3 3 0.5 I-Form 2 2 1 Goal line Run 1 -
O2 1 G Goal line 2 3 0 Goal line Run 0 -
O2 2 G Goal line 2 3 0 Goal line Run 2 -

10 plays, 37 yards, 6:17 left in the 2nd. Score: 14-7 Michigan.

Four plays in it's a drop by a receiver on a well thrown ball and a fumble after a 50-yard run that's stopping the offense. On this one, after the return turnover, Gardner bailed out the running game a couple of times, then the running game suddenly found its stride inside the 10. The first scramble was an ankle tackle away from breaking big, and the second a Kain Colter special: two LBs and a safety try to converge short of the sticks, and Gardner jukes outside one so the other LB crashes into the first, then jukes back to avoid a safety. Denardian!

Drive 5:

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
M6 1 10 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 over Pass 10 CA
M16 1 10 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 over Run 1 -
M17 2 9 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass Inc TA
M17 3 9 Shotgun 1 2 2 3-3-5 nickel Pass Inc MA+
4 plays, 12 yards, Michigan gives the ball back with 1:28 left in the half. Score: 14-7.

I called it "MA" because it would have taken a pretty ridiculous play to bring this in, but with a guy in his face and little room between a closing defender and a sideline that's also about as DO as it gets. I mean where else can he put this? Next time Michigan touches the ball it's on the M35 with 25 seconds so throw to Jackson not charted, which means when we rejoin the offense in the 3rd quarter M is now down 21-14.

Drive 6:

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
M26 1 10 Shotgun 1 1 3 4-3 over Run 0 -
M26 2 10 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Pass Inc BR
M26 3 10 Shotgun 1 0 4 3-3-5 nickel Pass -3 PR
3 plays, –2 yards, 9:30 left in the 3rd.

The guh drive. At first I thought he was throwing it into triple-coverage, but now I'm not so sure. I think he tried to hit Roundtree underneath all that coverage, but then his rib cage collapsing made the pass sail. So no X, but gee golly willickers this man does not like taking sacks. OL pass protection is bad but Fitz has been coaching them during the half to scream in on a pass rush since Michigan isn't running on 2nd and 10.

Drive 7:

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
M22 1 10 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 under Pass Inc CA
M22 2 10 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Penalty -15 -
M11 2 21 Shotgun 1 0 4 Nickel even Pass 6 CA
M15 3 17 Shotgun 1 1 3 3-3-5 nickel Penalty 15 MA
M30 1 10 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass 42 CA-
O28 1 10 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 over Pass 28 CA
4 plays, 78 yards, 1:43 left in the 3rd.

Pretty impressed by how the Northwestern DT recognized and blew up the screen on 2nd and 21, pretty unimpressed by their CB's coverage on 3rd and 17, though you're going to have to decide for yourself where you stand on this being pass interference. You're also going to have to decide for yourself what to do with the one to a Gallon open by several steps down the sideline which arrived at the same time as the safety. I filed "CA-" because that's pretty far downfield and if it'd arrived any earlier or further downfield it would've been DO, and how do you call something in the strike zone 40 yards downfield "Marginal" even if he made it difficult? I was mean on the perfectly thrown incompletion so I'll be nice on the not-perfect 42-yard completion.

Drive 8: This starts at 13:08 in the 4th quarter.

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And it ends this way.

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
M9 1 10 Ace 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass Inc PR
M9 2 10 Shotgun 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass 11 MA
M20 1 10 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 over Pass 26 DO
M46 1 10 Shotgun 1 1 3 Nickel even Run -1 -
M46 2 10 Shotgun 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass 13 DO
O41 1 10 Shotgun 1 1 3 Nickel even Run 5 -
O36 2 5 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Run 11 -
O25 1 10 Shotgun 2 1 2 4-3 over Pass 8 CA
O17 2 2 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Penalty 5 CA
O12 1 10 I-Form 2 2 1 4-3 over Run 4 -
O8 2 6 Shotgun 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Inc MA
O8 3 6 Shotgun 1 1 3 Okie Pass 8 DO
11 plays, 91 yards, 8:45 left in the 4th.

Down in the 4th quarter and out comes the shotgun. If things followed a typical "wow that was scary" spread-option script this would have been the epic drive emblazoned in memory. This man simply does not like getting sacked. This one was low but that helped Roundtree duck past the filling DB and get the 1st down. Also: Dead On. Dead On. Dead funchbunch on. And then,

Drive 9: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
M42 1 10 Shotgun 1 1 3 4-3 over Pass INT BRX
1 play, 1 interception, 3:37 left in the game.

You'll have to wait for UFR for Norfleet. This was a young quarterback seeing Cover 2 and getting Cover 3 on a two-MLB blitz. Michigan gets the ball back with just 16 seconds, then…

Drive 10: YEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
M38 1 10 Shotgun 1 0 4 3-2-6 dime Pass 51 CA
3 plays, 53 yards, clock at 0:02

And then…

Drive 11: BIG TEEEEEHNNNNNNNNNNN!

Ln Dn Ds O-Form RB TE WR D Form Type Yards Charted
O25 1 10 I-Form 2 2 1 4-4 over Pass Inc BR
O25 2 10 Shotgun 1 1 3 4-3 even Pass 17 DO
O8 1 G I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 under Run 5 -
O3 2 G Goal line 2 2 1 Goal line Run 2 -
O1 3 G Goal line 2 2 1 Goal line Run 1 -
5 plays, 25 yards, Michigan 38, Northwestern 31.

Got the BR for trying to fit it in a window even the NFL thinks is unsafe but at least he threw it so hard the only hands it touched were a diving Roundtree's. This was the follow-up, a perfect pass that allowed Roundtree to turn upfield and YAC his way to 1st and Goal.

So.

So do it.

Do what?

Brian normally gives me a chart as a reward for reading all of that.

You read all of that?

As far as he knows…but until I see the chart I really have no idea.

Here's your two QBs—screens removed—over all of 2012 if you count scrambles as positive downfield successes (Legend).8172689013_dd8acbde4c_b (Legend by Upchurch->)

Charted Gardner Robinson
Dead-On 9 14.5% 22 13.2%
Catchable 17 27.4% 71 42.5%
Scramble 10 16.1% 6 3.6%
Marginal 8 12.9% 11 6.6%
Inaccurate 3 4.8% 20 12.0%
Bad Read 5 8.1% 10 6.0%
Batted 2 3.2% 12 7.2%
Pressure 5 8.1% 11 6.6%
Throwaway 3 4.8% 4 2.4%
DSR 73% 68%

Competition thing bears repeating: Denard's numbers include games against MSU, OSU, and Alabama and even Purdue and Illinois were supposed to have more troublesome secondaries than Minnesota and Northwestern. Still, that is pretty awesome. There's only a year in age that separates the two but in experience it might as well be a generation. So the bad reads are up a bit, but a big difference in the number of inaccurate balls, and way, way, way more likely to scramble.

Both of these DSRs are really, really good.

Brian never counts scrambling.

True or false: Cain Kolter converted a lot of 3rd downs against us.

But he…

Yes he ran. A lot. Past dudes we know as fair to excellent tacklers.

It's amazing it's taken us this long to count scrambling as a positive downfield event. Perhaps that's because Mallett would do it for 4 yards on 3rd and 15. And Tate would do it because it has more moxie, and that boy needed no further encouragement. Perhaps this is why Denard doesn't scramble—he doesn't know it can positively effect a passing stat. Boom: going theory.

You're comparing two different offenses.

Rly. Number of plays run from formation, 1st and 10s in parentheses:

O-Form Gardner Robinson
Shotgun 45 369
I-Form 44 47
Ace 24 29
Goal line 8 10
Pistol   1
Pro 1  
Total 122 456

In two games Gardner has taken nearly as many snaps under center as Denard has all year. First down formation selection is even more dramatic:

- 1st Down 2nd Down 3rd Down
O-Form Gardner Robinson Gardner Robinson Gardner Robinson
Shotgun 25.0% 83.4% 39.5% 75.6% 68.2% 90.6%
I-Form 45.8% 7.7% 30.2% 14.1% 22.7% 7.3%
Ace 27.1% 8.8% 23.3% 7.7% - 1.0%
Pro 2.1% - - - - -
Goal line - - 7.0% 2.6% 9.1% 1.0%

And, related, the type of personnel in on each snap when either guy is taking it:

Type Gardner Robinson
RBs 1.41 1.19
TEs 1.05 0.96
WRs 2.55 2.85

The obvious: they're not running a spread with Gardner. I don't believe their skill sets are so different that Gardner is a "pro style" QB by any stretch of the imagination. What's going on is the three senior interior OL and in particular the guards are all kind of smaller spread dudes, while the redshirt freshmen and whatnot who will be replacing them may not be. That's more true for Kalis and far less true for presumptive 2013 center and Molk-a-like Jack Miller. It makes sense that what they're teaching Gardner is the offense they'll use with Gardner, and the one they've been trying to sneak in without wasting Denard.

Last thing, just because I can access it: the YPA and YPC for when either QB has been in, with 3rd and 4th downs and 2pt conversions excised. Remember: Minnesota and Northwestern…

QB Pass Run Total
Gardner 12.9 YPA (55%) 4.3 YPC (45%) 8.3
Robinson 13.0 YPA (42%) 5.7 YPA (58%) 7.8

The not obvious: they're calling way more passing plays for Gardner. Even if I limit it to 1st and 10s, cut out 4th quarters, and cut out any plays when the margin is greater than two scores, the tendencies seem to remain about the same: Borges will be nearly 50-50 pass with Devin Gardner under center, but 73% run with Denard.

[UPDATE 1:28 p.m.: The end was cut off.]

Yeah. So a lot of people want to take this and talk about which QB is better. The thing about these conversations is I've always been one to jump right into the muck and try to inform the conversation. Brian can't stand having a Rich Rod conversation—I  am still admittedly very intrigued by what he does. Granted when people say "Denard is not a good quarterback" I shake with angar because goddammit look at all the available evidence. Look at the passing chart:

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
2011 through MSU 13 66(12) 11(1) 34(1) 17 2 3 10 4 55%
2011 after MSU 9 77(9) 7 17 9 6(1) 5(2) 9 5 69%
Alabama 4 15(2) 1 4 3* - - 3(1) 1 71%
Air Force 1 14 3 2 1 - 2 1 - 75%
UMass 1 16(4) - 4 - 1 1 1 3 68%
Notre Dame 4 10(1) 2 4(1)* 2** 1 1 3 1 65%
Purdue 3 7(2) - 1(1) - 1 2 - - 73%
Illinois 3 6(2) - - 2 - - - - 78%
MSU 4 9(2) 3(1) 4 2* 1 5 2 - 48%
Nebraska 2 9(2) 1 1 - - - 1 1 90%

You are looking at a guy who is better at sitting in the pocket and throwing the ball to a receiver than John Navarre, and he's neck and neck with Chad Henne except against elite defenses he makes lots of bad reads. Look at Michigan's YPP against anyone else who's been here since 2008 vs. BCS-level competition:

QB Pass Run Total
Gardner 11.0 4.8 7.4
Robinson 8.9 5.4 6.7
Feagin - 6.1 6.1
Forcier 6.3 4.5 5.5
Sheridan 4.7 4.0 4.4
Threet 4.2 4.7 4.5
Bellomy 5.3 2.5 3.1
Total 7.2 5.1 6.0

It's not just the board dolts and Sparties who say "Devin is a better quarterback than Denard" which is a very very very different thing than "Denard is not a good quarterback." Just for kicks, here's that YPP for the entire offense vs. only Northwestern and Minnesota squads:

QB Pass Run Total
Robinson 12.2 5.8 8.2
Gardner 11.4 4.8 7.8
Feagin - 6.1 6.1
Sheridan 4.2 4.8 4.5
Threet 4.2 3.5 3.7
Total 8.7 5.1 6.6

Fairness to Threet and to a lesser degree Sheridan that they got those numbers in a freezing rain storm vs. the Wildcats. But for the careers of Denard and Gardner, these teams have kept a consistent level of mediocre defense. Note that Michigan rolled out the Fritz and Denard Jet formations in these games last year, which are credited to Gardner since he was under center for those. Across the board, the running game goes better when Denard's legs are at least a threat on every play. And when facing incompetent secondaries like these, even without the scramble part of his brain working, Denard gets more yards out of his passing plays.

Denard is the senior quarterback, and while his learning curve was retarded by the coaching/scheme switch and being forced to play early when he needed a redshirt, I think he is clearly, almost un-debatably the better quarterback for Michigan right now.

Comments

profitgoblue

November 13th, 2012 at 4:39 PM ^

Negative ghost-rider.  The pattern is full.

I was trying to kindly say that you were sent to Bolivia for a reason that I do not know because I was not online at that time and that I probably would have done the same thing because what you did was probably deserving of punishment.  Plus, I'd never undo what another moderator has done.  I'm not an appellate judge.

 

M-Wolverine

November 13th, 2012 at 5:34 PM ^

I was quoting someone who gave a great list/example of all the reasons people really get bombed. Not picking the particular reason that yours was. I highlighted the one part I did is because most of the time when people feel their nonexistent rights are being abused it's because they're condescendingly telling us how they're right and if we disagree it's because we can't handle the truth. I wouldn't be shocked at all if yours was along those lines.

And the votes tell you how whiny/bitchy thy are, because the majority tells you how they come across. Because all opinions aren't equal. Some are reasonable and well thought out, and some are fucking stupid. They don't have equal value from existing. Doesn't mean the majority is always right. But on a Michigan blog should you be constructive and have some good evidence behind criticism or analysis of Michigan coaches and players? You bet. Because if you used to question Rich Rod you'd get bombed (when you could REALLY get negged), and if you want to rip Hoke, you'll get the same. (GERG and Borges are open game though). Because Michigan fans are going to be naturally defensive of Michigan guys. If you can't accept that this type of thing probably isn't going to work out for you.

Raback Omaba

November 13th, 2012 at 10:36 AM ^

Yes, I will be that guy. Like I said all day yesterday to my friends, I think Devin is a better Quarterback than Denard. I think that he has better QB instincts and brings more to the table physically as a QB due to his height etc.

Do I think he should start over Denard if Denard is healthy moving forward? No. I think Denard gives us a better chance to win right now due to his experience.

But I REALLY wish the staff would've had the foresight and switched their roles on the team, i.e., groomed Devin for the starting spot this year (or even last) and put Denard in a WR/RB/Percy Harvin type role.

Would've loved to see that.

 

Just my .02 - I might be wrong and I acknowledge that, but love what Devin brings to the table and am excited for next year.

Ron Utah

November 13th, 2012 at 10:48 AM ^

I don't think most rational human beings would argue that Denard is a better QB than Devin.  He's not.  He is, however, one of the best runners in college football history, and has made enough plays in enough games to warrant keeping his starting job as QBRB for his final three/four games, as you said.

What I don't agree with--and what would not have worked--is the idea of moving Denard to WR.  It's a great idea in theory, but Denard doesn't want to play WR, and is the undisputed leader of our team.  You can't move your team leader to WR, especially when everyone knows he doesn't want to play WR.

The coaches did the right thing.  We badly needed another WR, and Devin has the tools to be an effective WR.  Let's not forget that Denard was moving the offense very well agasint Nebraska before the freak injury, and if we had won that game, we'd almost certainly be looking at B1G championship and a Rose Bowl appearrance, because Wisconsin isn't very good.

I really don't think Denard would have lost to NW or Minny.

But in theory, hell yes I agree with you...in a video game world I'd love to see Denard in the slot/Harvin role.

jmblue

November 13th, 2012 at 11:14 AM ^

In 2009, Denard briefly played both WR and RB, in addition to QB.  His preference definitely was QB but he was not adamant about it.  I'm pretty sure he would have accepted a position switch for the good of the team.  But that all went out the window after his 2010 season.  At that point there was no going back - he was a QB.

 

mpbear14

November 13th, 2012 at 10:50 AM ^

Could you imagine the uproar from this blog if that would have taken place?   



I could only imagine some of the articles if Denard was moved to Slot/RB last year.



Though we did go 11-2 with a BCS win.  Hard to say the coaching staff didn't make the right decision and we don't know what was going on behind the scenes with work ethic and attitudes while they were competing for the spot last year.



 

profitgoblue

November 13th, 2012 at 12:02 PM ^

I will say one thing:  Your definition of "quarterback" is different than my definition.  Using my definition of "quarterback" (a college spread offense quarterback) do I believe that Devin is a better quarterback than Denard?  No.  This is the precise reason why we are not going to have this kind of conversation anymore and is why people are being negged to Bolivia by the mods.  Personal opinions, snowflakes, whatever you want to call them - everyone has opinions and we've heard plenty from both sides.  Its time to move on and try to enjoy what is left of Denard's career here, one that I think we can all admit has been highly entertaining for us all.

 

MI Expat NY

November 13th, 2012 at 10:50 AM ^

Does anybody remember what Denard did to Northwestern and Minnesota last year?  Yes, they're both slightly better this year.  But Denard also tore up Ohio State.  

I guess all I'm saying is careful making pronouncements after seeing two games of Gardner against crappy defenses.  

mpbear14

November 13th, 2012 at 10:57 AM ^

As soon as people realize the stat sheet doesn't tell the entire story, the sooner they will realize that Devin is a better QB.   His reads, his accuracy, his pocket awareness, all better than Denard.  Our offense for the first time in 2 years has an identity while Play-calls are building off one another.  Players seem to be improving (outside the offensive line who reached their ceiling in game one)   These are things the stat sheet won't show but as a fan, you can feel it.

Denard is a dynamic runner and leader, it stops there though no matter what the stat sheet says.  



I think we can win out with Devin and take extraordinary steps forward for the 2013 season.  Why shouldn't we do that?   After all, it is what's best for the team, isn't it?

MI Expat NY

November 13th, 2012 at 11:15 AM ^

And here I thought the better QB was the guy who leads the better offense, silly me.  

I'm not saying you're wrong when claiming any of the things that you say Gardner is better than Denard at (though I do think we should ask for a little more than your, as a fan, feel).  I'm simply saying that Gardner had the benefit of going up against two bad defenses.  Defenses that held us combined to 27 less points than last year.  Denard led offenses have blitzed every crappy defense we've played in the last two years with the exception of Iowa.  Denard led offenses also put up 45 and 40 on Nebraska and Ohio State last year, respectively.  He may not be your prototypical pocket passer, but he's been pretty damn successful.  To pronounce Devin as "better" at this point might just be a little premature.

And why shouldn't we plan ahead for 2013?  If Denard is "better," which to me, it's clear that he is, he gives us the best chance to beat Ohio State.  That matters more than some marginal benefit for 2013 gained by continuing to play Gardner.

M-Wolverine

November 13th, 2012 at 11:59 AM ^

We don't have much of a run game without Denard. If we were talking Long blocking for Wheatley and throwing to Anthony Carter, it may be just what you can do as a QB that mattered.  Unfortunately, it's not yet.

I wonder what happens if Devin goes down to Columbus and looks like a QB getting his first start on the road against a major team....how much hand wringing there will be for next season?

Frankly, in a perfect current world, they're both healthy, and we can use them both.

mpbear14

November 13th, 2012 at 12:50 PM ^

I agree with this.  Without Denard, we have no run game, however, we still have purpose with our offense.  Play Action works with Devin even with an elementary run game. 

I feel like Borges feels comfortable using 25% of his play book with Denard and 75% of it with Devin (and only 2 weeks in with Devin).   I would love to see them both in the game, just Devin taking the snap and Denard lined up next to him. 

Give me that a few times against Ohio State.  We've been dying for it, for 3 years and it not be a decoy. 

AZBlue

November 13th, 2012 at 12:31 PM ^

QB by strict definition, but think Denard gives us a better chance to win this year based on the fact that our O-line has struggled so much to establish the non-QB run game. I am far from an expert, but wonder how well play action will work against a competent defense when it become clear that we that we cannot run the ball consistently.

It IS clear that Devin's skill set fits Borges' offensive philosophy much better going forward in 2013 and beyond. I also feel that the O-line next year will fit this scheme better and hope the inexperience factor does not come in to play too severely.



In the interim hopefully Al can come up with some exciting plays using the 2011 formation that are more than just Denard being a decoy while Devin throws a pass.

jmblue

November 13th, 2012 at 11:12 AM ^

In last year's NW game, Denard had a very up-and-down performance.  He connected on several deep balls but also threw three picks.  That's kind of been the story for him as a passer all along - high risk, high reward.  OSU stands out as a game where he managed to make big plays while avoiding the costly mistakes, but it seems to be an exception to the pattern.

I agree with the consensus that Denard, with all the experience he has, should be the starter against OSU if healthy.  I would prefer not to throw a guy with only a couple of starts under his belt into the Horseshoe.  But I'd be lying if I told you I hadn't thought about how things might've been if we had Gardner at QB all along and Denard as a Percy Harvin do-it-all type.  Honestly, if Denard had not been the returning starter in 2011, I believe that's what would have happened.  I don't think we could have improved upon last year's record, but we might be better off this year if that were the case. 

 

 

BILG

November 13th, 2012 at 12:51 PM ^

I said this last year after MSU game, and got hammered for it. There was a reason they put Devin in to throw in that trash storm...because he is a better passer.  Unless you are committed to running RR's read option, Devin is the better QB.  There are throws that he can make that Denard simply can't.  He can thread the needle and has a downfield touch I saw on a few passes that Denard hasn't developed.  His vision is also better (probably do to height) and he has that cool pocket presence.  Denard never developed into Michael Vick as we had all wished for, Devin looks like he has those Vince Young abilities...and I would argue is a better passer than VY was in college, and with much less grooming.

Love Denard and hope he plays out of his mind these last two games, but to suggest that Denard could be more successful than an experienced Gardner in the Borges system that we are trying to move towards is simply being blinded by our love for one of our favorite players

DefenseWins

November 13th, 2012 at 11:25 AM ^

Seth of course this post led to exactly the kind of discussion you were hoping to avoid. See the board for the last few weeks and it's all the same arguments rehashed in very similar terms. I think it's fairly clear that Denard gives the team the best chance to win because of his record. I'm just sick of this debate. It's pointless. Denard only has a few games left depending on his injury status. The ship has sailed.

profitgoblue

November 13th, 2012 at 12:13 PM ^

Agreed with respect to the re-hashing.  Of course it was inevitable here but all that is just a lot of noise.  I'll let Seth do what he will with what I call the "Denard vs. Devin" personal opinions but hopefully we all can look for the valuable feedback/comments that Seth was hoping to see and ignore the noise.

FreddieMercuryHayes

November 13th, 2012 at 11:46 AM ^

I think the most impressive throw I've seen in a while was the incompletion to Robinson (that he dropped).  Faces down the blitz, the WR and QB are on the same page, WR gets positioning, and the throw was pretty much perfect while getting hit.  Even though Robinson dropped it, it was so good it served to back NW off the blitz for the rest of the game.  That's the exact type of throw that needs to be made to make this offense work.  Impressive stuff.

WolverBean

November 13th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^

I think one of the most interesting ingredients to this story, and one that's probably impossible to deconvolute no matter how much play-by-play data you have, is the extent to which running an offense he's more accustomed to allows Borges to get more "into the flow" of calling the game, or whatever you want to call it. There's no doubt that Borges is a creative playcaller -- witness the Fitz (or Deuce) package from last year, for example -- and that he has found plays (like "inverted veer") that do effectively take advantage of his current team's skillset. That being said, one of Brian's chief complaints this year about Borges's playcalling has been that while the individual plays make sense, they don't fit together into a cohesive whole (e.g. running play-action from the I-form with Denard when we never actually run from that formation with Denard in the game). It seems reasonable to me to surmise that while Borges is certainly intelligent enough to install an offense that uses plays he hasn't run previously in his career, that the practice of when to call which plays requires some years of experience in the system, and he just hasn't accumulated that experience yet. Whereas with Gardner at QB, the offense looks to be more in Borges's comfort zone, and all of a sudden the plays not only make sense in isolation, but also build off each other in a cohesive way. Long story short, it'll be interesting to see what the RPS numbers look like with Gardner at QB vs with Robinson at QB.

blue in dc

November 13th, 2012 at 1:09 PM ^

As you point out, Borges seems to be a better OC with Devin at the helm than with Denard. If the question were Denard with an OC that maximized what an offense could do with his skills vs Devin and an OC that maximized the offense for him, Denard is a much easier choice. Unfortunately I don't think those are the two options on the table.

Further, while Denard has won a bunch of big games out home, he hasn't faired nearly as well on the road. Unfortunately, given our weaker o-line, The fact that it is an away game and the way that Borges has been calling games with Denard this year, I am not hopeful that even if he were 100 percent healthy, it is realistic to exspect a game like he had lost year. 2012 Denard vs Notre Dame was certainly nothing like 2011 Denard vs Notre Dame.

I'm glad its not my decision to make, but it just doesn't seem as black and white to me who the clearcut better qb for this team is as it appears it is to many others on this board.

I'd also remind folks that many people on this board thought it was a no brainer that Hoke was a bad choice for head coach, so it seems clear to me that it might be wise to be a little bit humble when acting like a decision is a no brainer.

yzerman19

November 13th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^

How about last year's formations with bpth of them on the field?  Run the read option with Denard as the RB, or the jet sweept, the Heiko Bubble, all of them with Denard?  I'll hang up and listen.  Thanks.

Seth

November 13th, 2012 at 4:00 PM ^

As a base offense? Those were gimmicks, with diminishing returns as opponents were able to scout them and come up with solutions. This year's gimmick was the Gallon/Hayes/Norfleet jet where the Rodriguezian slot-bug lines up as a slot then motions across the formation to create what's essentially the Wing-T offense without any reads.

Mattison used gimmick defense to get the 4th down stop this week. Pat Fitzgerald knew it was a gimmick as soon as Michigan lined up like that, and called time out. Michigan saw what he came up with as an answer and called time out to counter that. Not knowing what it was put Northwestern at a major disadvantage. Knowing what it is now, the next opponent will have some sort of counter, and maybe we'll have a counter to that, but eventually all is known and the fact that Jibreel Black is an NT and the linemen all get free releases means the thing is unsound and will be scrapped for the next gimmick.

They'll come up with others down the road. However it certainly won't be the base offfense. If Denard doesn't have feeling enough in his arm to throw the ball, you certainly don't want him in there to catch passes with the numb hand, or take shots on the pinched nerve. If he is 100%, then he'll be the quarterback.

BILG

November 13th, 2012 at 12:28 PM ^

Tried to post this topic over the weekend and got slammed, negbang, shut down by mods.  At the time I even stated I wasn't trying to cause a shit storm just wanted to discuss what was inevitably on everyone's mind.  IE...No need to ignore the elephant in the room. Funny how 2 days later a contributor can post the exact same content with very similary opinions.

Gardner > Denard in Borges system....probably

Gardner > Denard for teams chances right now...probably not

Gardner Upside > Denard in Borges system...almost definitely

Gardner should start over a healthy Denard  in last two games...No

While my post did not have the beautiful chart as the post above, it was not a controversial, blind opinion piece intended to cause a riot.  

While an argument can be made for or against some of the post that are negbanged on here, I do think the site has become increasingly autocratic in its handling of its citizens.  For the site itself to neg a post and then come out with the same exact post two days later (with almost the same exact conclusions on the subject....which shouldnt matter anyways since should be an open forum for all opinions) is absolutely ridiculous.

Lest not forget it is the democoracy and feedom of the blogosphere that allowed sites like this to get all its free content from the populace and build its presence and SEO rankings on the internet.

Harperbole

November 13th, 2012 at 1:26 PM ^

What gets me is that everyone is upset when a post is thread jacked by Devin v Denard comments but these are the same people that wouldn't allow a thread dedicated to the topic to remain on the board for more than 10 minutes. Clearly based on the fact that it's overwhelming any and all football related discussions there is enough disagreement that it warrants being talked about. Perhaps if one of these posts had been given a chance we wouldn't be left with arguments breaking out all over the site.

jg2112

November 13th, 2012 at 2:06 PM ^

Haven't we learned this year the issue isn't Denard v. Devin?

It's Koger v. Funchess/Williams

It's Mealer v. Molk

It's Barnum v. Schofield at LG

It's Hemingway v. Roundtree

It's Odoms v. Dileo

It's no interior OL from 2009-11 ready to play (or even recruited in two of those years)

And it's Stonum v. Probation Officer

That's why Michigan ended up with Gardner at WR and then Robinson on the sidelines. It's not just a QB thing.

Seth

November 13th, 2012 at 4:08 PM ^

Well yeah, that was my article last week.

This post is mostly "yay the backup who is next year's starter is actually good!" The Devin-vs-Denard thing is a total sideshow that I hope got some perspective from these stats, but we're comparing a career vs two games against non-representative opponents.

It's more about 2013 than 2012.

Remember when Avant went down in the 2003 Michigan-Ohio State game, and we were like "oh no we're screwed since Breaston isn't going to be catching Navarre-bombs in traffic" and then Dr. Scientist Carl Tabb, Ph.D. stepped in and made several important Avantian catches? That is about the level this is, except at QB so more important. And he's the presumptive heir so more more important. The starter went down, and the dude on the depth chart you were wondering if you should give up on pops up and gives you big-time relief play, and keeps the season alive. Takeaway: Hurrah!