Hokepoints: Attrition Update, the Worst is Over
"Whatever you need to make you feel, like you've been the one behind the wheel, the sunrise is just over that hill."
—Cursive, The Gentleman Caller, The Ugly Organ
How about some good news regarding Michigan's football team? One runaway success you can attribute to this coaching staff is they've managed to hold onto their players, especially the ones they recruited. Better news: the thing about a lot of the teams that finished in the Top 10 in 2013 were they had lots of upperclassmen starters. Experience is still a big deal, and the only way to get that is to go a lot of years in a row without losing half your roster. Better better news: Michigan is (likely) going to be one of those teams in the not-too-distant future. Let's go right to the table:
% of PLAYERS REMAINING AFTER X YEARS FROM RECRUITING CLASSES 1993-'13
Class | Recruited by | Class Size | 1 year | 2 years | 3 years | P.O.E.* | Usage** |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1993 | Moeller | 23 | 91% | 87% | 70% | 26% | 68% |
1994 | Moeller | 22 | 95% | 91% | 82% | 82% | 88% |
1995 | Moeller | 19 | 95% | 95% | 84% | 63% | 84% |
1996 | Carr | 20 | 95% | 80% | 65% | 55% | 74% |
1997 | Carr | 18 | 100% | 94% | 67% | 67% | 82% |
1998 | Carr | 19 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 79% | 95% |
1999 | Carr | 23 | 100% | 87% | 87% | 74% | 87% |
2000 | Carr | 19 | 95% | 95% | 84% | 74% | 87% |
2001 | Carr | 21 | 95% | 81% | 81% | 57% | 79% |
2002 | Carr | 21 | 95% | 90% | 90% | 71% | 87% |
2003 | Carr | 16 | 88% | 88% | 75% | 63% | 78% |
2004 | Carr | 22 | 86% | 86% | 77% | 50% | 75% |
2005 | Carr | 23 | 100% | 87% | 61% | 43% | 73% |
2006 | Carr | 19 | 89% | 89% | 79% | 63% | 80% |
2007 | Carr | 21 | 100% | 86% | 67% | 52% | 76% |
2008 | Carr/RR | 24 | 83% | 71% | 67% | 50% | 68% |
2009 | Rodriguez | 22 | 82% | 82% | 68% | 59% | 73% |
2010 | Rodriguez | 27 | 70% | 59% | 44% | 37% | 53% |
Average for 1993-2010 | 21 | 92% | 85% | 74% | 58% | 77% | |
2011 | RR/Hoke | 20 | 80% | 70% | 70% | x | 71% |
2012 | Hoke | 25 | 96% | 96% | x | x | 96% |
2013 | Hoke | 27 | 100% | x | x | x | 100% |
*(Played out eligibility, i.e. nonredshirted Sr's who played 4 years + guys who played 5)
**(Eligible seasons the class netted divided by 4 x class size)
There will be attrition from Hoke's classes as the position battles shape out, but for awhile there Michigan was regularly coming into a recruiting class's redshirt sophomore season with a third of that class already departed. As of now the only guy from that awesome 2012 haul not on the roster is Kaleb Ringer. You have to go back to the class of 2000*, which didn't qualify Reggie Benton, to find a class to make it this far as intact. It was so long ago that a guy from that class is now one of Michigan's coaches.
Plot the retention of the 2012 class to this point with the state of the classes before it coming into their 3rd season. It's stunning:
Years after coaching changes seem to witness an exodus spike, followed by a return to normal, which is to be expected. The last few years though…
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*Even better was 1998. Henson (Yankees), Terrell (early NFL), Fargas (transfer to USC) and fullback Dave Armstrong (unrenewed 5th) were the only losses, and that was just a year of eligibility from each of them. Considering they were recruited after the championship year that's astounding.
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[Jump for lots more charty charts.]
Better, Still Ugly
When can Michigan enjoy a mostly intact senior class? Answer:
Note this is by eligibility not class so, e.g., the 2013 bar includes non-redshirted players from the class of 2011 plus the remaining guys from 2010. The fifteen guys from 2017 are just the 2013 recruits who redshirted.
Not this year, probably next year, but doo doo doo doo doo doo. Over half of the seniors who would have helped last year were gone. I also broke out types of attrition into "no fault" (Early NFL or medical reasons) and "bad" (everything else), and all that which affected last year's seniors was the bad stuff.
Freshmen combined with questionable coaching don't make great OL either, but at least the days of Recycling Bin on the two-deep are over. |
Would-be 2013 seniors who didn't make it:
- Pre-Hoke: Conelius Jones, Davion Rogers, Antonio Kinard, Demar Dorsey, Vlad Emilien, JT Turner, Anthony LaLota
- Transition losses: Vinopal, Cullen Christian, Carvin Johnson, Isaiah Bell
- Left later: Terrence Talbott, Stephen Hopkins, M-Rob, Mike Jones
Would-be 2014 seniors who didn't make it:
- Injuries: Terry Talbott, Christian Pace
- Busts, etc.: Kellen Jones, DJ Williamson, Austin White, Greg Brown, Ricardo Miller, Jerald Robinson, Ken Wilkins, Chris Barnett
- The current butcher's bill for 2015 reads Chris Rock, Tony Posada, Tamani Carter and Antonio Poole. Maybe figure a Terry Richardson or Chris Bryant or Jack Miller if they don't get on the field this year; every other junior has already played extensively and should again next year unless there's an injury or an early NFL departure among them, which doesn't seem very likely. After that, it's all kids recruited by these coaches, so long as these coaches aren't sent out the door before then.
By Position
The dark bars on the right are the attrition. The colors represent recruiting class, blue being the guys in their fourth year in the program or later. The 2013 team is another young one, dominated by sophomores of one type or another. Your 5th year seniors, provided all return, are Gardner, Ryan, Furman, Ash, and Paskorz.
By Unit
Obviously the guys who've left also make themselves replaceable by opening up a scholarship, but what's not replaceable is their experience. I tried to capture that a few ways, finally settling on a simple average of years since high school of the non-redshirted players on each unit:
You know how people kept making diaries last November/December to try to show relative experience? Good news: I think I figured out the proper correlation. Bad news: it's very difficult to pull without an extensive database like I keep of Michigan players. The trick is to know which guys were redshirting and what year (for injury types). That allows things like Troy Woolfolk's non-availability to show through.
Anyway that big jump in 2011 isn't an error; it's the 2008 recruits all being on hand as well as Molk, Huyge, Hemingway and Steve Watson. That Team 132's offense wasn't any better than 2010's can probably be attributed to the coaching change. That Team 132's defense was so much better despite not being that much older than 2010's can probably be attributed to the coaching change. Absent a coaching change, it seems a roster getting older is a team getting better.
And there's your shred of hope for next season, since the effective age of the roster (figuring the obvious guys redshirt or not next year) will climb back from a nadir (to 2012 level) while the defense will be as old as any at Michigan since 2006.
January 8th, 2014 at 8:38 AM ^
January 7th, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^
You're absolutely correct. If that had been posted by a non-insider they would be ripped to pieces.
January 7th, 2014 at 6:01 PM ^
January 7th, 2014 at 6:07 PM ^
That's what she said...Mom :)
January 7th, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^
January 7th, 2014 at 4:54 PM ^
It's pretty remarkable to look at the 2013 roster by year:
Seniors (true & redshirt): 14 (12% of team)
Juniors (true & redshirt): 16 (14% of team)
Fresh+Soph: 84 (74% of team)
Overall, upperclassmen made up only 26% of our roster in 2013. That sure seems like it must be historically bad.
[edit...I couldn't believe the #s were accurate so I did a recount and had missed 2 seniors:]
Freshmen: 59 [36 True + 23 RS] 52%
Sophomores: 23 [12 True + 11 RS] 20%
Juniors: 16 [7 True + 9 RS] 14%
Seniors: 16 [5 True + 11 RS] 14%
January 7th, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^
January 7th, 2014 at 4:22 PM ^
By "non-redshirted players," you mean players not redshirting in that specific year, right? At first I thought you were excluding all players who redshirted in any year.
January 7th, 2014 at 4:31 PM ^
I was struck by the number of transfer players, many JUCO, who were playing substantial minutes for Auburn and FSU. Without the using JUCOs, it's even more of an imperative for schools like Michigan to retain players.
January 7th, 2014 at 5:00 PM ^
(with the only recent exception being Austin Panter) but it seems like the last 3-4 years would have been an excellent time to be daring and take on some JUCO transfers. Our depth has been so awful the last few seasons that it sure seems like having some guys who can come in 1-2 seasons and compete would have been excellent
January 7th, 2014 at 8:20 PM ^
has less to do with the coach's preference than the school's. Hoke used plenty of JUCO transfers before coming here, so did RR. It's hard to get them admitted from out of state schools. Panter was a notable exception. He was an excellent student who went to JUCO to get better offers.
January 7th, 2014 at 5:13 PM ^
That's a great point. Hesitant to use Sparty as a reference given I dislike how much they're been brought up on this board as much as anyone else, but I don't know how other B1G teams use transfers. I know their right tackle and I believe TE were JUCOs. FB too maybe?
It's a luxury, because instead of having to totally suffer through Funchess/Williams at the blocking TE spot in 2012, or OG's in 2013, you bring in a guy that can play. If Sparty doesn't have that, they probably get their QB killed by a RS freshman in a key moment (or moments), or can't get anyone blocked when needed. It didn't solve all their problems and make them RB winners, but I can see where it solved could have solved some of M's over the years. But it's better to bring in on your own and retain them.
January 7th, 2014 at 5:54 PM ^
January 7th, 2014 at 4:32 PM ^
This summarizes my feelings that things should improve. I don't let the coaching totally off the hook. I also know not every adjustment works and clearly some didn't in 2013. I don't see them as a top 25 team necessarily at the beginning of the year. They are still young and haven't played together extensively. I do think by the end of the year we will see dramatic improvement.
At a minimum this does show there is some hope.
January 7th, 2014 at 4:50 PM ^
I can't think of a bigger waste of talent than Reggie Benton. I remember watching my little brother play him while he was at grand blanc and thinking I'd never seen a kid that fast up close before.
January 7th, 2014 at 4:56 PM ^
Everytime I see or read this I wince.
2009 | Rodriguez | 22 | 82% | 82% | 68% | 59% | 73% |
2010 | Rodriguez | 27 | 70% | 59% | 44% | 37% | 53% |
January 7th, 2014 at 8:58 PM ^
What makes me wince more is seeing that and the 7-6 record in year three that went with it compared to seeing Hokes retention rates and still having a 7-6 record in year three.
January 8th, 2014 at 12:53 AM ^
No football team is built around true freshmen and sophomores/RS freshmen, which is what RichRod's classes were that year, and Hoke's classes were this year. The underclassmen were not why we went 7-6 either year. Lack of upperclass talent/depth hurt us both times.
January 8th, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^
You do realize that the 2010 line he's referring to is the line for the 2010 recruiting class, not the 2010 team? That line is as relevant to the performance of the 2010 team as the current crop of HS seniors is to this year's team.
If you want to compare the 2010 team to the 2013 team you should compare Carr's 2007 class to RR's 2010, or 2006 to 2009.
January 7th, 2014 at 5:01 PM ^
the coach in 2015 and 2016 is going to be quite happy with how his depth chart looks. There's a lot of stable depth being built up right now. It'll be a shame if Hoke & Co. can build all of that but not win enough on the field to make it till it finally settles out again. Those late few RIchrod classes are just killer (though in looking at them, we wouldn't really miss too many of those seniors, but just the lack of quality upperclassmen is awful)
January 7th, 2014 at 5:39 PM ^
Coaching changes tend to lead to exoduses though. That's my fear about labeling 2014 as a make or break season like everyone seems to have done. Should there be a coaching change, we might be shooting ourselves in the foot just as the roster is returning to stability.
January 8th, 2014 at 8:47 AM ^
January 8th, 2014 at 9:42 AM ^
Good point. Because in 2015 and 2016 (way too far for most to wait for) the roster will become loaded with talented (on paper anyway) upperclassmen. The big question is whether or not Hoke can produce enough wins to keep everyone happy until then.
January 8th, 2014 at 11:19 AM ^
Whether the hypothetical new coach in 2015/2016 can: A - take advantage of that roster immediately (like Hoke did, winning the sugar bowl) and B - keep those upperclassmen around while restocking through recruiting and keeping the roster from cratering like it did last year and this year experience wise.
January 7th, 2014 at 5:01 PM ^
Things started going down in 2008 with 2010 and 2011 really hurting the program. If this continues, Hoke and company have to deliver big time in 2015 or we will be looking for another Michigan man in 2016.
January 7th, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^
I guess I never realized how relatively young the 2012 and 2013 teams were but seeing how they compare to 2008 and 2009 makes a lot of sense. They are also transitional years for the offensive scheme so I would have to think any subsequent struggles on offense would have to be largely due to coaching.
January 7th, 2014 at 5:22 PM ^
Youth and to some degree depth should not be major problems. If the team continues to struggle then you can start to blame the coaches. Since expectations will be quite low next season I hope the team can bounce back and have a great season ( 9 or 10 wins). Past Michigan teams with low preseason expectations have bounced back and did quite well. I think Hoke and staff will need to win 10 games with a (old)BCS bowl game in 2015 to have DB consider a contract extension.
January 7th, 2014 at 6:06 PM ^
Look, Michigan will probably finish 9-3 next fall, and things will be what we all refer to as "right with the world", a.k.a. when Lloyd Carr was coach, because "that's the way it was AND WE LIKED IT!"
January 7th, 2014 at 7:33 PM ^
January 7th, 2014 at 6:29 PM ^
January 7th, 2014 at 6:38 PM ^
The 2010 class is the bane of this program. I have to imagine it's one of the worst 'major program' classes in the past 10 years.
January 7th, 2014 at 9:30 PM ^
Now, IMO it would be intersting to add in star ratings w/ each player and see a blended graph of "player age" & recruiting stars per year.
Yes I know stars don't predict everything but they are a rough guide to athletic ability (emphasis on rough).
January 7th, 2014 at 11:01 PM ^
The story about the blind men who encountered an elephant for the first time may apply here. One guy felt the trunk so he declared the elephant to be like a snake. Another felt the side and said the elephant is like a wall. Still another felt one of the legs said the elephant was like an oak tree. One felt the ear, and said the elephant was like a leaf, and so on.
Offense is important. Defense is important. Special teams are important. Strength and conditioning are important. Retention is an important factor. Youth is an important factor. Motivation is an important factor. Raw skill and potential is an important factor (you can't coach being 6 foot 7 inches tall or having amazing fast reflexes). Coaching is an important factor. Scheme (right guys for the right system) is an important factor. There has been a topic on nearly every one of these issues on this board - they are all important. The elephant in the room is that this team wasn't that good - for all of the reasons noted by all of the other posters. If we hope to see a better team next year and the future, we need to try to improve across the board. Claiming one thing will fix all things is like feeling one part of the elephant. This is a well analyzed and presented discussion but it is only one facet of the overall problem.
It is great we'll get Jabrill Pepers who will boost our raw skill and potential but we'll also need to accept the fact we have to help coach him and inspire him and make sure we have him in the right system to full develop this talent and hope he sticks around long enough to see that come to fruition on our defense. And he is just one guy.
Hoke and the rest of the coaching staff have a tough task ahead of them - and I still believe and hope that they can do it but I've long given up on the notion that any one magical player or fix will make the team great again.
Stay warm and safe!
January 8th, 2014 at 2:32 AM ^
January 8th, 2014 at 10:24 AM ^
Given the high percentage of True Freshman, RS Fresman and Sophmores that make up the roster, would it be fair to basically call this a JV team?
January 8th, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^
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