I'm not saying you're wrong about Bo or Lloyd, but that doesn't make any sense. You increase variance by reducing play count, not the other way around. More plays means a eventual regression to the mean, less plays means the effect of outliers is stronger.

It would not shock me in the least if these guys were putting in 80 hours/week in season.  At least 60.

Plus, they know their schemes, their playcalls, their assignments, and they spend (NCAA mandated maximum) hours/week with their players to work on getting everyone on the same page and learning about each individual's talents, abilities, and character.  If they read this blog, it is to (1) get a feel for the fanbase or (2) laugh at the internet.  It is certainly not to learn more about football or their players.

There are certainly things coaches don't know well enough to implement at that level or run at that level. Things like giving GERG a 3-3-5. He didn't know the defense well enough to run it. There are certainly people that understanding the nuances of various things better, that can't be denied. But these guys understand these things at least at its basic level. Why? Because they see it on film, they go up against it, that talk about it with other coaches, at clinics, etc.

For things like the spread (non-NFL style punt), the coaches know about it, they know the fundamentals of it. They likely have a concept of the strengths and weaknesses of it. They know that and have to know that because they have to go up against it constantly. They need to know its strengths and weaknesses and what it is trying to do. They may not know enough to implement it consistently. As likely, they just don't believe in it, or have the same weighting values of the positives and negatives. But they know who is the leverage gunner, who is the support gunner, who is the mirror gunner, that the people on the LOS should step outside only (never inside) and then shoot up field immediately. They know that the shield shouldn't follow rushers outside. Michigan has almost generated blocked punts against shield punt formations in back-to-back games. They understand it at its foundation and to some detail enough to know how to attack it.

And if they wanted to understand it better, it would behoove them not to dig through the things here, but rather go talk about it to other coaches, as they do all the time when they want to understand things better.

I'm far from calling them all-knowing and infallible. But they do have a better understanding of these concepts than at least 99% of the people here, and at least as much at a high-level than is discussed here. They do because they have to go against it and have to defend it or protect from it, etc. And that's not a slight at this blog or other blogs. The level of detail that these coaches don't know is very uninteresting to 99.9% of readers. I've gone into too much detail in an article or two, they don't generate hits, they are too in-depth, and even that depth is well beneath what they are talking.

There are strengths and weaknesses to both, and depending on how you weigh those strengths and weaknesses, you may believe in one being better than the other. Here's what I said in another post commenting on punt formation:

Shield (Called spread above and often called that, to everyone's confusion)

Strength:

Long snapper mirrors, two OGs get spill, two ends still act as gunners, and OTs contain. Shield players and punter are safeties. It forces the defense to declare its intention. It gets more players down in the first wave. Is more spread out (similar to a KO) and therefore is easier to define coverage lanes. Simplified release for the players on the LOS (step outside into gap and release upfield instead of going back to block).

Weakness:

4 guys in the two A-gaps can block a punt directly up the middle (shortest route to the football); rushers are typically going up against OL and FBs in space for the "shield" aspect of it, and it's hard for those shield players not to chase. Besides the rugby scramble, it's also more difficult to fake because penetration is allowed. After the first wave you have less support because you have OL types chasing the play and acting as safeties. Punt generally needs to get off quicker and cleaner because block angle is shortest route to football and there is less emphasis on protection.

Spread (Pro-style)

Strength:

Can pick up any 8-man rush, and forces rush to come from the outside (don't let anything inside of you). With more defenders covering the gunners, you can release different players at the snap and leverage the football. Can still use LBs, safeties, as wings and OTs if need be to get down field quicker in first wave. Protects against the block first. Learn an NFL style scheme (good for getting players to the NFL).

Weaknesses:

First wave is essentially the gunners and maybe the long-snapper mirroring the returner. Tends to put up to four OL instead of three OL on the field. Isn't spread out and therefore is more difficult to get into coverage lanes.

Conclusion T

he shield punt is better at getting the intial wave down field, meaning that it typically will limit return yardage. The issue comes if the coverage gets too spread out or out of their lane, and then the safeties are a few OL and a punter, meaning that it is dangerous if it can be blocked initially. It also means that a lack of discipline is a bit easier to exploit, because penetration is allowed and four guys in the A-gaps can't all be picked up. Conversally, the pro-style punt forces the rush to come from the edges and can pick up 8 men rushing the punt without problem. The protection is simplified (rather than the release), meaning it's easier to prevent the block. However, the first wave is typically only two players. The return against this formation is more likely (bringing in variability), however, the return yardage is typically less variable (because there are more waves).

What it comes down to, is that a shield punt is often kind of all or nothing. Your punter's distance may drop a little because he has to focus on punting in the direction of the shield and has to get it off quicker and cleaner; if he doesn't get adequate hang time, the returner must only break through the first wave and bust a long one, however, that first wave is larger. A shield punt is more conservative. Your variable comes in allowing a return more often, but there will be less drastic shifts in field position. So what you'll see is a lot of defensive minded coaches do the pro-style punt as it tends to give the defense a chance to get off the field, rather than saying they need more yards in order to do so. Offensive minded coaches think about winning some field position or getting the ball back quickly if they don't. It's really a mind set thing.

My feelings In general, I prefer the shield punt myself. There's a reason you spread out on KOs, you might as well utilize that advantage on punting. I think blocked punts are a rare thing anyway, as are fakes, so my preference is the shield. But it can be seen either way depending on how you weight the issues.