On Harbaugh, Brandon, And Other Such Things
ALL RIGHT, PEOPLE. We are probably embarking on a coaching search in the near future and also probably embarking on an AD search in the near future. When these things happen I get buckets of insider information from provenances both dubious and legit, and at some point they cross the threshold where I think they're useful to relate.
When I do this I want things to be supported by multiple people, or people I've heard from before and were accurate. I've learned over the years that when you get in these situations a lot of people stridently believe things that turn out to be wrong, so keep that in mind; I strive to be precise with my language to give people the right impression of how strongly these opinions are held.
So…
![Jim%20Harbaugh%20&%20Pete%20Carroll[1]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/images/f692880f2d54_14EE1/Jim20Harbaugh2020Pete20Carroll1.jpg "Jim%20Harbaugh%20&%20Pete%20Carroll[1]")
ON JIM HARBAUGH. There are plenty of media reports suggesting that Harbaugh won't be with the 49ers next year; I've heard similar things. I've also heard that people within the 49ers organization think that maybe Harbaugh isn't an NFL guy, long term, and that Harbaugh is also coming to this realization as the guys in his locker room start getting more and more ornery. Michigan is not a far-fetched destination according to them.
ON DAVE BRANDON. I mentioned this on twitter and should clarify. There is the Big Ballers Meeting and then a Meeting With A Lot Of Big Ballers And Some Smaller Ballers And Some People Who Do Nice Stuff For The University. I got a report from the latter, in which Schlissel sat down for a Q&A session that was moderated by Stephen Ross. Nothing said was definitive, but almost all of the side chatter centered on how Brandon wasn't going to make it and Ross didn't seem like he was going to throw a hissy fit if a change was made. Even in this context away from the madding crowd the first issue addressed was the AD; Schlissel reiterated his point about a culture change; there seemed to be big baller chatter about who might be next.
Now: these people are not universally omniscient. There was chatter that things might go down last Tuesday. Obviously they did not. Don't take that as gospel.
ON THE COMBINATION OF HARBAUGH AND BRANDON. Never say never but I've heard from guys who know Harbaugh who say that Jim working for Dave is highly unlikely to happen. I do not have signed affidavits, but… yeah. As chatter goes this drumbeat is intense.
ON HOKE SURVIVING. This is likely to become moot this weekend, but serious people are asserting that he's not dead yet and could get by with a 7-5 record that includes a win over MSU or OSU, or even that 6-6 might be enough.
I don't think this is the case, as the powers that be know that season tickets are on a knife edge now and bringing Hoke back could see significant drops. It's impossible to know anything about Hoke's status given the uncertainty about the top of the department; the information being discussed is going to point strongly to a change no matter who is in charge.
![jeff-long-at-bobby-petrino-news-conference[1]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/images/f692880f2d54_14EE1/jeff-long-at-bobby-petrino-news-conference1.jpg "jeff-long-at-bobby-petrino-news-conference[1]")
ON AD CANDIDATES. Amongst the obvious Michigan Man candidates I would peg the pecking order as
- Jeff Long (Arkansas)
- Brad Bates (BC)
- Warde Manuel (UConn)
- Joe Parker (Texas Tech's associate AD)
There's a bigger gap between 2 and 3 than between 1 and 2 or 3 and 4. Michigan may go off the board, of course, but Long in particular seems to have the respect of the AD community—he's the CoFoPoff chair—and made a stunning hire of Bret Bielema after the Petrino situation blew up in his face.
Also worth noting that he handled the PR of that disaster as well as can be expected. Bates and Manuel have not had to face similar crises yet.
ON JABRILL PEPPERS. This is not certain otherwise Michigan would have announced it but I've gotten several seemingly independent sources asserting that Peppers isn't going to play again this year. Michigan just threw him on top of the depth chart at nickel and punt return, so I don't know… I just wouldn't be surprised if he didn't play this weekend.
ON LLOYD CARR. Lloyd Carr is a civilian. He is neither involved nor wants to be involved in the day-to-day of the athletic department, and if you have a conspiracy theory involving him it is ridiculous and you should just drop it.
October 21st, 2014 at 7:47 PM ^
I wasn't implying that he would go out of his way, only that I don't think his grandchild being diagnosed with cancer would preclude him from it. I don't think he is, or has a clear reason to meddle at this point, I was just nitpicking at one very particular angle.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^
Maybe my memory is fuzzy but wasn't it all but a given that Petrino was going to be fired at the end of the nfl season and instead of playing the year out he bolted for Arkansas before the NFL season was over?
October 21st, 2014 at 7:14 PM ^
It was his first season with a big contract. That was when Vick was suspended, so it wasn't a shock that the team struggled.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:44 PM ^
If I were Long, I would not exactly highlight in AD interviews the fact that I had hired Petrino. The hire was an unmitigated disaster. I know, maybe no one could have seen it coming, but Petrino wasn't exactly known as a paragon of virtue even prior to Motorcycle-gate.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:58 PM ^
An unmitigated disaster? Other than the sneaky way he left the Falcons, there wasn't a whole lot there to complain about. He took Arkansas to their first BCS game, back to back 10 win seasons, including 11 wins one time. By all measures, his hiring was a coup for Arkansas and a great hiring.
Long also handled the firing and scandal as well as he could. I don't think Petrino is a black mark on his resume at all.
October 21st, 2014 at 3:34 PM ^
I failed to recall that Arkansas was that successful in 2011 and 2012. Petrino has just always struck me as a snake-in-the-grass who I would never put in the position of molding young men. After his first year at Louisville, he secretly interviewed for the Auburn job, when it was still filled by his friend and former mentor Tommy Tuberville. Then there was the way he left the Falcons. It's not all that surprising that a man with the lack of a moral compass did what Petrino did (I'm talking here about the favorable employment treatment of his mistress more so than the affair itself). Could you see any of Michigan's recent football coaches doing something like that? I don't want an AD who hired Petrino to run a college football program. Poor judgment.
October 21st, 2014 at 1:30 PM ^
/hoping I'm wrong, but this shit is ominous.
October 21st, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^
I know he is an unreal athlete and has amazing self healing powers, but just watching the way he limped off the field and into the tunnel after the Penn St. game, I believe the odds of him playing this weekend are VERY low. The three folks in our group all agreed that it looked like he had a very restrictive brace on his knee.
October 21st, 2014 at 1:44 PM ^
This may be the post to mention that after I graduated from Michigan in 2010 I had a summer internship. At the conclusion of said internship I got a calendar from the company that feaaured none other then the Baltimore Ravens Cheerleaders. This seemed random at the time since I worked in Connecticut and this seemed to have nothing to do with my fandom.
I didn't think anything of it at the time because I didn't follow this blog so closely but clearly it is a sign. John Harbuagh is coming to Michigan. Science!
/s in case it's necessary
Thanks for the info Brian. I hope we get rid of Brandon above all else. I just don't think there's going back. It's worse than after the Gator Bowl in 2007.
Please just resign from the AD DB and save us a lot more indigestion.
October 21st, 2014 at 1:47 PM ^
Much of the speculation hinges on one major assumption: Coaching Michigan is a desired position. I would not be surprised if a new coaching search goes similarly to the last one with the only viable candidate being someone willing to walk to Ann Arbor. I think that the unseen cancer that pulls the strings of Michigan football is well-known in the coaching circles and reputable coaches know to stay away from Ann Arbor. There is an impressive level of dysfunction in the program and it may not be overcome for quite some time. Removing Brandon does not cure that.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^
What unseen cancer are you talking about? What does that mean?
October 21st, 2014 at 2:44 PM ^
Some people have touched on it, though I have yet to see it fully explained, but there are forces, factors, groups, etc. that want Michigan football to be a certain way. Say what you want about RR and whether or not he should have been gone in year 3, but there were many alumni, my closest friends among them, who wanted RR gone... in the first week he was hired. Why? He wasn't a Michigan man, he is slimy, he don't talk good, he's bringing in the wrong players. I strongly feel there is something - powerful alumni groups, former players, fans, Michigan arrogance - something that surrounds the program that is stuck in the past. They believe that there is only one way to play the game, and it was last seen in 1980. Our head coach must be a former UM player or Michigan coach, our recruits are Midwestern, forward passes are a fad, but our QB is a golden boy who can hand off with the best of them, three yards and a cloud of pulverized rubber pellets behind five sturdy farm boys from Muskegon. We will win games 9 to 7 or 10 to 3. Outsiders need not apply. And that's how we like it. Say the right things like Beat Ohio, win the Big 10... it's all really provencial. Kids today want to play for the national championship, not aspire to be 8-4 and go to Indianapolis.
October 21st, 2014 at 6:40 PM ^
@LeatherstockingBlue - I completely agree with you.....
October 21st, 2014 at 3:08 PM ^
Poor choice of words, but ...
Here's an example: Who tipped off the Freep in 2009? Before they blew things out of proportion, they had to find a couple of legit nuggets on which to base their big story.
October 21st, 2014 at 6:27 PM ^
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-25-schools-that-make-the-most-money-…
(3rd in total athletic department revenue to #2 OSU, so perhaps OSU generates more revenue that gets classified as indirect revenue. Florida is close behind in total athletic dept revenue at #5.)
A former UM Business School Professor (pre-Ross, I believe) once told me that the culture of Michigan compensation was such that it would never compete with $$$ for #1 in any department, but would try to be Top 10 in everything, spending its resources judiciously.
Weeuuull, according to the January 2013 article, Michigan reaps $85 million/yr from the football program. Does a judicious Michigan, with that revenue stream facing unprecedented risk from fan/benefactor disillusionment, find it prudent to protect its revenue stream by paying up for a coach that will please those dishing out the $85 million?
October 21st, 2014 at 1:48 PM ^
Hoke's lack of transparency is absolutely maddening.
October 21st, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
Question about Harbaugh's futue:
With so many suggesting that college isn't for him and he won't be with the 49ers next year, what other options may be out there for him in college, besides Michigan? Florida? UNC?
October 21st, 2014 at 3:32 PM ^
I can't see Harbaugh caring about any program that is not a legitimate blue blood of the past 30-40 years. That is a very narrow set of schools. North Carolina is not that school. Most blue bloods are now in great shape outside of Tennessee, Florida, Texas, and UM. Texas just made a big splashy (and I think very good) hire. Tennessee is committing big money to Butch Jones and is only in year 3 of that experiment. That leaves UF and UM.
Yes it would be epic trolling by Harbaugh if he turned down his alma mater to go to UF but...but... but... one could at least build a reasonable logic behind it being a worry. Being in the SEC East is the best position IMO to get to the NC game. You only have to deal with Georgia really at this point as a power (SC and Missouri and Tenn are hit or miss) and if you win the East you basically have a play in playoff game in the SEC CG vs whatever superpower exits the West.
This is exactly the opposite thinking of Urban Meyer of course - flee the entire conference and go to an easier conference and win that one. That is the same logic that applies for Florida State right now - basically beat Clemson every year and get into the playoff.
That would be the same choice for Harbaugh - basically beat OSU and MSU, and have 1 tough crossover most years in the Big 10 championship game to get to the playoff. Nebraska and Wisconsin are solid programs but not that different from South Carolina for example. But unlike in the SEC I dont think a 2 loss Big 10 team will ever be considered for the playoff with how far the conference has fallen off in terms of play. It's like the Big East of 7-8 years ago. Whereas a 2 loss SEC champion could get in.
Hence there is no margin for error for a Big 10 team when it comes to playoff berth. If you lose your 1 tough non conf to say an Oklahoma, UCLA, or Texas down the road you must go 8-0 in conf to even be in a discussion. That is basically what OSU and MSU are dealing with now.
There are a lot of advantages of being in the South that we all know about, especially in regards to talent and standards. But it would almost be aggressive hate to leave the NFL and not go to your alma mater and go to a school like Florida. It would be punitive. Especially in a year when one of the hottest candidates in the country had a long stint at Florida.
October 21st, 2014 at 6:32 PM ^
If Harbaugh comes here and has that problem, then the lack of B1G competitiveness is immediately mitigated with a resurrected Michigan.
(I know, it's easy to forget that we could carry the banner for the B1G.)
October 21st, 2014 at 11:04 PM ^
But FL has to play a bunch of SEC west teams each year and those games count.
Urban Meyer has a much easier life than any SEC coach, and so would Harbaugh. It is what it is.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^
My dream scenario involves the 49ers being eliminated in the Wild Card Round by the NFC North Champion Detroit Lions at Ford Field, then Harbaugh is handed an official offer by the new AD immediately after.
Win for U-M and Lions fans.
October 21st, 2014 at 9:29 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^
I could see Harbaugh at Florida for sure over Michigan. They have their own issues but nothing like the crap we have in our Michigan Man culture.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:23 PM ^
I don't know about that. I mean, Urban Meyer left Florida to coach Ohio State....
October 21st, 2014 at 8:44 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 21st, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^
1. Never, in the history of football that I have been able to find, has a succesful NFL coach left to go to a college program. If you have success in the NFL, other teams are going to offer you a great gig regardless of your relationship with your old team.
2. For this reason, John Harbaugh seems like the biggest pipe dream that ever existed and is "Jon Gruden is totally taking the Notre Dame/Tennessee job you guys!" He has no ties to college football and 31 other NFL teams will line up to take him when he leaves Baltimore. John has spent his professional life in NFL environments and has seemed perfectly happy with the way NFL teams operate and the role of the coach in the NFL. He just seems to have a deteriorating relationship with the owner and management over Ray Rice.
3. I would give Jim a slivver of a chance just because of all the rumors that people in the NFL think he's just not cut out long term for an NFL team due to his control freakness. A head coach in the NFL just isn't going to be allowed to have a ton of say over personnel, and if Jim really can't take that, he could very well end up back in college.
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But again, look at the history of coaching hires. If you can find me guys with Super Bowl appearances or championships who voluntarily went back to college, then point em out because I haven't found them. Getting your hopes up for the Harbaughs seems like setting your sights so high that when neither shows up people are going to act like Michigan has "fallen" because it couldn't pull of the Most Insane Coup of a Hire Ever.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^
I agree with all this. But I still want to believe.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:37 PM ^
would be the only coach that I can think that won a Super Bowl and then went back to college.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:40 PM ^
I didn't think that was the same because he came out of retirement to coach Stanford, and I think being his age when he came back to football made any decision to hire him by a NFL team a bit more compicated than "Holy shit Bill Walsh is available?!"
Jim and John Harbaugh would get the "HOLY SHIT HE'S AVAILABLE!? GO GET HIM" response from NFL teams.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:47 PM ^
Bill Walsh did have a three-year stint at Stanford (1992-4) after his career with the 49ers, but he was away from the NFL for five years before he went to Palo Alto. Even then, two out of his three years on The Farm included losing records.
But your larger observation is correct and if Jim or John Harbaugh were to come to Ann Arbor, it'd be an extreme outlier given their relative success as head coaches in the NFL. This isn't quite the same as Pete Carroll going from the Patriots to USC, for example.
Besides that, I find it very dubious to think Harbaugh would be deterred from taking the Michigan HC job because of Brandon, especially given the current circumstances. Brandon is pretty much on his heels and getting JH as his HC would go a long way towards saving his job as AD. JH would hold most of the cards in terms of defining their relationship and what DB could do in and around the football program. Let's face it--JH is no shrinking violet either. If he didn't want Brandon on the sidelines or in the football offices, I doubt he'd have much problem spelling it out in plain English.
Of course, if you want to build a narrative in social media that Michigan cannot get a quality replacement for Hoke as head football coach as long as Brandon is in place, then it makes perfect sense to say that Harbaugh (who is not really likely to take a college job anyway) wouldn't come to UM as long as DB is AD. I wonder who at MGoBlog would have such an agenda . . . .
October 21st, 2014 at 3:22 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^
That may be true, but that doesn't make it an impossible thing to happen either. Until something happens to DB/Hoke, we really will have no idea what the future holds for Michigan.
But I mean, I also have never seen a coach as successful as Harbaugh in his first 3 NFL years, who took his team to a superbowl just two years ago, piss so many people off that trading him to Cleveland was an actual, real thing that might have happened.
In other words, just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it won't happen. Urban Meyer left coaching after two national championships at Florida, citing "health reasons", only to return not one year later to coach at OSU. Has anything like that ever happened before? Doubtful.
October 21st, 2014 at 4:26 PM ^
I would say the John Harbaugh rumors are completely off though. Like, when they whole thing boils down to, "Well he's from there, his dad was an assistant there and his wife loves the state" then you've officially hit Gruden territory where it's all vapor. He's coming up on almost 20 years of coaching in the NFL.
I'd say Jim is POSSIBLE. But I just have these visions of smartass jerks going, "Oh MICHIGAN SUCKS SO BAD LOOK HOW CRAP MICHIGAN IS THEY COULDN'T HIRE THEIR FIRST CHOICE, JIM HARBAUGH WAS RIGHT THERE," when he really probably isn't. If major college programs were capable of hiring top NFL coaches, it would have happened and it just hasn't. So if Michigan pulls it off, it's going to be the greatest hiring coup in college athletics history. It's chances are nonzero because Jim is a unique individual and Michigan is a unique institution.
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The Urban thing sure was a unique twist, but it's hardly unique for a college coach to leave a college program for another college. Lane left Tennessee for USC. Dennis Franchione left Alabama for Texas A&M. The space in between and the health care aspect for Urban made things a bit more unique, but it's ultimately something a lot less rare than a successful NFL coach leaving the NFL to go back to college.
October 21st, 2014 at 5:29 PM ^
And honestly, I don't think anyone really knows how much of a possibility any Harbaugh really is at this point. I would give it a very small chance at this point, though it is at least plausible in my mind...the convenience of Michigan seeking a new coach at a time when Jim will be looking for a new job next year cannot be ignored. With John Harbaugh, I have no idea what his relationship with the Ravens is at this point after the Ray Rice crap, and it does seem doubtful he would eave that job right now...but who the hell knows. I'm not exactly waiting with bated breath for either to come here. I could see it happening, but I'm not going to believe it until it does, especially given the history of it really never happening before.
October 21st, 2014 at 8:03 PM ^
I am unique.
October 21st, 2014 at 8:11 PM ^
"Happy wife, happy life." Not sure how she influences his future, but I'll bet she has something to say about living in Ann Arbor.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:53 PM ^
how ironic... considering half the board ripped harbaugh to no end, here... if righteousness were real, then these losers would admit that they were wronger than wrong.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:54 PM ^
Schlissel needs to grow a pair, fire Brandon, and be done with it.
Fergodsakes.
October 21st, 2014 at 5:05 PM ^
Or maybe he"s a smart guy who is working on the Noid's buyout before taking any public action.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:55 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 3:02 PM ^
Please no more Peppers rumors. I just want to turn the tv on saturday and see him suited up and ready to lockdown Lippett. In a perfect world anyway.
October 21st, 2014 at 6:50 PM ^
Did you hear that Serrano was cross-breading with Habanero?
October 21st, 2014 at 6:51 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 9:46 PM ^
/Checks_post
/Face_palm
October 21st, 2014 at 3:54 PM ^
If it's Joe Parker, I wouldn't mind a bit if he brought Kliff Kingsbury with him. It may not be the right time, though, because Tech is 3-4. I don't know if they have the personnel to compete in the Big 12 right now, but Kingsbury's upside could be Mike Leach without the maintenance. He is making $3.1 million at Tech right now.
Since he may end up with a "career" (two seasons) record under .500 if his team doesn't pull off an upset or two, the failure of Brady Hoke will probably help take him out of the candidate pool.
Like everyone else here, I am hoping for a "big time" hire like a Harbaugh or Dan Mullen. But if it goes into the second tier, I would take Kingsbury over quite a few of the names that will probably be bounced around.
October 21st, 2014 at 3:55 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 7:06 PM ^
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