The Essentials

*(NCAA football lines courtesy BetUS sportsbook)

Run Offense vs. Minnesota

After a one week, jumped-snap-induced hiatus, Minor Rage returned and was darned effective, opening the game with a 45 yard touchdown run and ending with 155 yards on just 24 carries, an average of 6.5 per.

Some of that was Purdue hanging back with two deep safeties and only putting six guys in the box on many downs (they did blitz corners frequently, but that rarely impacted the play. With Steven Threet concussed and very likely out, Minnesota will probably be more aggressive.

As far as their defense goes, a year after being the defensive equivalent of Notre Dame they're… well, still the defensive equivalent of Notre Dame: much, much better but still not exactly good. They're #65 in total defense, #53 in rushing defense, and #20 in scoring defense. That gap is easily explained by another number: 2, Minnesota's rank in turnover margin.

So, mediocre run D versus mediocre run O should be a push, except, uh:

Minnesota does not do "push". They either destroy on the ground or get destroyed. (And when they're not getting destroyed they're giving up like 462 passing yards to Juice Williams.) And with all of those teams running some version of the spread there's not a whole lot to choose from here. Given Michigan's inconsistency I hesitate to predict anything.

Oh, I guess I have to: these guys seem like major gamblers. They get a ton of TFLs and lost yards and give up their share of big plays. I think misdirection will do well and we'll see whoever the quarterback is keep it more to good effect (Mike Kafka ran for 217 yards last week); at other times they'll shoot into the backfield and put Michigan in untenable long yardage situations. Sustaining drives will be tough; a big play or two seems probable.

Key Matchup: Whoever the QB is making the right reads on when to keep the ball.

Pass Offense vs. Minnesota

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Key Matchup: DEAAAAAAAAATHHHHHH

Run Defense vs. Minnesota

Minnesota's run offense has taken a major step backwards in year two of the Brewster regime. Some of this has to do with the injury absence of starting running back Duane Bennett. His main replacement is DeLeon "Ponce" Eskridge, and he's struggling mightily thus far, averaging just 3.6 YPC. Quarterback Adam Weber will also keep it eight to ten times a game; he's kind of meh on those carries, too.

Michigan, meanwhile, you know the story: pretty good on the defensive line with erratic (read "poor") play from the linebackers and the occasional secondary disaster. This should be advantage Michigan.

Key Matchup: Nose Tackle Whoever versus double teams. If we're in the 3-3-5, and I imagine we will be against an offense much like Purdue's, the NT has to exploit what looks like a shaky offensive line.

Pass Defense vs. Minnesota

The pass offense remains pretty good and pretty efficient, with Minnesota checking in 36th in passer efficiency. A serious sack count (they're 73rd) indicates problems on the OL, especially when coupled with the iffy run numbers. Weber's averaging 7.3 YPA and has 11 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions.

Given the issues we saw in the secondary last week, this has to be considered a significant Minnesota advantage even if their big threat, Eric Decker, sounds like he'll be gimpy with an ankle sprain.

Key Matchup: Safeties versus TACKLING. Obvs.

Special Teams

Things have started to get slightly brighter here: Martavious Odoms returned a punt for a touchdown last week (and, yes, fumbled one); he and Boubacar Cissoko had a series of excellent returns that set up Michigan's offense with good field position. That's two weeks in a row the kick returns have been pretty good. There was one major error last week other than the muff when Odoms failed to field a pooch at around the 13. The ball was eventually downed at the one. Oh, and Purdue had a 60-yard fake punt.

Still, punt and kickoff returns have gone from dire to downright average (58th and 64th) over the last two weeks. (Michigan was #111 in punt returns when the Purdue game kicked off!) Add in Zoltan's usual displays of excellence and the special teams is approaching something… okay. Woo?

Minnesota, meanwhile, is doing all right in the various categories: 44th in net punting, 48th in punt returns, 31st in kick returns. Kicker Joel Monroe is okay, going 9-13 so far this year.

Key Matchup: Michigan keeping up the returns would be good.

Intangibles

 garfield minus garfield 

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• DEATH
• The outside coverage doesn't make more sense.
• We have a QB wearing #30.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Um… not death?
• Minor Rage actually works two weeks consecutively.
• I dunno.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for DEATH, +1 for DEATH, +1 for DEATH, +1 for DEATH, +1 for DEATH.)

Desperate need to win level: 2 out of 10. (Baseline 5; –1 for I Am Henri, The Otter of Ennui, –1 for There's Not Even The Vague Hope Of A Bowl Game, –1 for DEATH.)

Loss will cause me to... react in no way whatsoever.

Win will cause me to... well, I'll have to re-nickname Sheridan, I guess.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

DEATH

Finally, opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• DEATH
• DEATH
• Minnesota, 23-15.