H4: Hall of Harbaugh Quarterback, Part 2 Comment Count

Seth

Jim Harbaugh Andrew Luck Washington State DIytpfI_3yol

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This is the second installment of a comprehensive look at quarterbacks whom Jim Harbaugh recruited and coached. Part 1 looked at his WKU recruits, his work with the Oakland Raiders, and his first head coaching job at San Diego. A few trends that came out:

  1. He recruits at least two QBs per class
  2. They tend to look like shooting guards: tall, athletic, gangly, on the border of dual-threat/pro-style. He scouts them at multiple sports.
  3. Their teams usually perform above or far above the usual for that program.
  4. He likes them smart.

We are now entering the Stanford phase, so it’s a good thing we could notice item #4 above before the sample was ruined.

We also got an idea of how Harbaugh coaches them. He likes his heady guys to memorize a million things they can think about pre-snap. When he has one of those guys, they go to the line with three plays called, and the quarterback decides which by defensive alignment. Conversely, post-snap reads are super-simplified and drilled mercilessly so that his QB barely has to think about his progressions during a play.

This week we get into his last two stops before Michigan.

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Stanford

Head coach and quarterbacks coach, 2007-'10

2007: Harbaugh took over at Stanford in December 2006 with Kellen Kiilsguaard, a high three-star dual-threat, and L.D. Crow, an early-recruited academic from the South, already committed. Crow was on a lot of 2007 early watch lists (I know because I was reading those religiously for Mallett news) and Stanford's first commit of that class, but he was passed by a lot of guys by Signing Day (not Nick Foles, Kellen Moore, or Ryan Lindley). Kiilsguaard would eventually switch to safety. Harbaugh couldn't lure another QB but did get a transfer from Michigan. MGoBlog's Brian Cook:

Redshirt sophomore quarterback Jason Forcier can read the writing on the wall -- it says "Jesus Christ, that kid can throw eighty yards" -- and is transferring to Stanford effective at the end of the semester. Lloyd is not happy about it.

Forcier, like all Forciers, was an accurate Marinovich project with enough legs to be classified as a dual-threat but not enough to overshadow his passing.

On the roster were a pair of fliers in Alex Loukas, a 6'4/193 Purdue-al-threat (see: every other Purdue quarterback of the period), and Marcus Rance, a barely three-star guy from Washington whose next best offer was Idaho. Harbaugh also inherited a 5th year senior and on-and-off starter in T.C. Ostrander, an Elite 11 prospect who signed as a 4-star and two spots below Brady Quinn in a deep year for pro-style QBs. Ostrander split time with 2006 3rd round draft pick (and former 5-star) Trent Edwards for three seasons.

T.C. Ostrander Passing Rushing Total
Year Att Cmp% TD Int Yds Eff Att Yds YPP
2004-'06 351 48% 8 8 2361 107.04 96 -340 4.52
2007 (Harbaugh) 229 57% 7 3 1422 116.40 32 -171 4.79

Last among  inherited bullets was Tavita Pritchard, a 2005 3-star pro-style guy ranked just behind Colt McCoy. Pritchard had thrown one pass—that incomplete—and was sacked on three other career snaps before Harbaugh arrived.

Ostrander suffered a seizure the week Stanford would go into #1 USC as 41-point underdogs. Against a brutal defense, Pritchard wasn't doing too hot—he'd go 11/30 for 149 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in that game. But then 20 of those yards were a laser to Richard Sherman, and another 10 were the fade to Mark Bradford to win it. Pete Carroll wanted to know what Harbaugh's deal was.

Harbaugh's deal was he was recruiting quarterbacks. Andrew Luck committed at the end of June 2007, before Stanford had played a game under Harbaugh. The interest in Stanford was already there for the academic Texan, and meeting Jim sealed it.

Jim continued to recruit a second QB for the class. Targets included Dayne Crist (Notre Dame), Jerome Tiller (ISU), Sean Renfree (Duke), Ted Stachitas (Wake Forest), Wayne Warren (Rutgers), B.R. Holbrook (New Mexico), and another Texas prospect, Robert Griffin III. RGIII turned down Harbaugh's offer because of Stanford's admissions policy:

“I was graduating early, and Stanford wasn’t allowing early graduates to enroll and that was the biggest issue,” Griffin said.

So Stanford wound up with just one quarterback for the class. Luck was the epitome of the Harbaugh quarterback recruit: valedictorian smart, extremely productive in high school, cool demeanor, and some wiggle. Under Harabaugh he would develop into the best pro prospect since Peyton Manning, whom Luck displaced.

Stanford Quarterbacks Passing Rushing Averages
Year W-L Player Att Cmp% Yds Rtg Att Yds YPP TD Rate Int Rt
2006 1-11 Trent Edwards 156 60.3 1027 120.6 59 37 4.95 2.8% 2.8%
T.C. Ostrander 158 45.6 918 94.3 39 -153 3.88 1.5% 2.5%
2007 4-8 T.C. Ostrander 229 56.8 1422 116.4 32 -171 4.79 2.7% 1.1%
Tavita Pritchard 194 50.0 1114 97.5 66 45 4.46 1.9% 3.5%
2008 5-7 Tavita Pritchard 254 57.9 1633 114.6 66 113 5.46 3.4% 4.1%
2009 8-5 Andrew Luck 288 56.3 2575 143.5 61 354 8.39 4.3% 1.1%
2010 12-1 Andrew Luck 372 70.7 3338 170.2 55 453 8.88 8.2% 1.9%
2011 11-2 Andrew Luck 404 71.3 3517 169.7 47 150 8.13 8.6% 2.2%
2012 12-2 Josh Nunes 235 52.8 1643 119.6 27 74 6.55 5.0% 2.7%
Kevin Hogan 152 71.7 1096 147.9 55 263 6.57 5.3% 1.4%

TD rate and INT rate on the right are percentages for all attempts (passing and rushing

The sophomore Luck won the job over the incumbent senior Pritchard in 2009, but it was his junior season, 2010, when he really became Andrew Luck.

[Jump for 2009-2010 targets and the San Francisco story]

2009 stanford qb targets

Harbaugh’s 2009 offers: all became starters, 3/5 were in Heisman conversations

For the 2009 class Harbaugh again went after many, and took two QBs. The “What’s your deal?” game became a subtext of 5-star top recruit in the nation Matt Barkley’s recruitment, though Stanford was never really in it. A comment from Harbaugh on Barkley as an NFL prospect in 2013 repeats the heady theme:

He was a grade A student and church group member with go-getter parents Harbaugh probably adored as much as that arm. Stanford was the only Pac 12 team Barkley would never beat with USC. He was a Heisman finalist in 2011 and entered 2012 as the favorite but separated his shoulder in the season-ending UCLA game and missed the Sun Bowl.

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Nunes was a Stanford fan ever since that had been his baseball cap in 2nd grade, and a Harbaugh QB since he got the goofy-looking gene. [U.S. Presswire via SF Examiner]

 

Harbaugh did get his next 2009 target, Josh Nunes, the 9th pro-style QB and 139th overall player according to the 247 composite. Nunes was a prolific passer in high school (6,306 yards and 52 TDs in 34 starts) who on Harbaugh’s recommendation added running (3.1 YPA with sacks included) to his reads as a senior. Nunes was heir apparent to Andrew Luck but lost his job to Kevin Hogan while out with a foot injury in 2012, and lost his career to a freak pectoral injury in 2013.

Taysom Hill was a three-star, Rivals’ 30th pro-style QB, who committed over offers from BYU, Boise State, Utah, and a handful of other Pac 12 schools before becoming another victim of Stanford’s anti-January enrollment rule. He went on a two-year Mormon Mission that ended in December 2011, so rather than sit around for half a year until Stanford would let him start classes he went to BYU.

Which means you will see Hill this season; the now-senior has over 4,000 career passing yards and was a Heisman candidate last year before a major leg injury ended his season. They compare him to Tim Tebow because he runs like a fullback, but he reminds me of Harbaugh:

Other QB targets in 2009 were Allan Bridgford, ranked not far behind Nunes, and 3-star Brock Osweiler, then known as the 6’8” dude from Montana, who was deciding between football and playing hoops for Gonzaga. Bridgford made three starts for Cal in 2012 then was a grad transfer to Southern Miss as Sonny Dykes elected to spend more snaps developing his younger players. Bridgford started but lost his job mid-way through the year and went undrafted.

Osweiler on the other hand starred for Arizona State, earning a start as a true freshman and another as a sophomore while competing with transfer (hello again!) Steven Threet. In 2011 Threet retired before the concussions could do any more damage to that valuable brain, and Osweiler passed for 4000 yards (26 TDs/13 Ints) and left for the NFL, where he was drafted by Denver in the 2nd round. If Manning retires next week, Osweiler is heir apparent, and Broncos fans appear to be zen about the prospect.

2010

By the time the 2010 class was being recruited, Stanford looked to be turning around, and Andrew Luck was a sophomore performing pretty okay. The offer cannon went out in earnest to find his successor.

We’ll start with the guys he got. Brett Nottingham was the headliner, a 4-star and the #7 pro-style in the 247 composite. Nottingham lost out to Nunes and transferred to Columbia (yes THAT Columbia), but left the team when he didn’t win the starting job there either. Dallas Lloyd was a 3-star, the 9th dual-threat, with offers from Miami (YTM), BYU, and Nebraska. He delayed his enrollment for a two-year Mormon mission. Stanford built Lloyd a little offensive package in 2013 and moved him to safety last year.

David Olson was a high-academic but relatively unrecruited kid from South Carolina (Rivals gave him a 3-star but not rankings, and other sites skipped him). Other than Ivy Leagues Olson had a Louisville scholarship until committing on the offer to Harbaugh just before Signing Day. Olson was a kind of Coner-level backup the last few years and took a grad transfer year at Clemson.

Darren Daniel (2.5-star, #49 dual-threat) was another tall (6’4) and scrawny (186 lbs) afterthought recruited out of Alabama when Hill decided he wouldn’t be coming back from his mission. His only other BCS offers were Clemson and Vanderbilt. Stanford tried to move him to wide receiver so he transferred to a JuCo then reappeared at Alabama State.

These Plan B’s were necessary after whiffing on a number of other guys you’ve heard of. Connor Shaw you remember as the animated character of the South Carolina cartoon show that beat Michigan in its last relevant bowl game. Tommy Rees had an arm capable of football circumnavigation at 42.3 degrees Latitude:

IMG_1220

…and enough athleticism to knee a police officer in the bits and escape. Some you haven’t heard of: 4-star athlete Anthony Barr went to UCLA and became an NFL linebacker, lanky athlete type Clint Trickett stayed home for Florida State then transferred to West Virginia, where he started until retiring from football before their 2012 bowl game due to concussions; he plans on being a coach. Tanner Price was a lanky 3-star from Texas who went to Wake Forest, won the starting job as a freshman, and graduated with nearly 9,000 passing yards; he’s since been patrolling the edges of pro football waiting for an NFL opportunity to come along. Austin Hinder was an early top recruit (Lemming hung on to his 5-star ranking and called him the fifth overall QB) but slipped to a 4-star to everyone else. He went to Cal and never cracked the depth chart.

2011: Harbaugh was involved heavily of course in the 2011 class, since he took the 49ers job in early January. Jim got in early with both Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota, but didn’t get reciprocal interest. He also was after North Carolina’s now-starter Marquise Williams, who was 2nd team all-ACC last year. Current Stanford starter Kevin Hogan was a Harbaugh recruit all the way. At 6’4”/200 and a scion of a 1950s Navy/1970s Notre Dame football family, Hogan was the 8th composite pro-style in his class, and had all the requisite wiggle and intelligence we’ve tracked in the guys above. He took over when Nunes had his foot injury, and projects as an NFL quarterback though not a first rounder.

By November 2010 Harbaugh was expected to either end up at Michigan or the NFL by next season so some of the other prospects drifted away; Stanford ended up taking 3-star pro-style Evan Crower.

San Francisco 49ers 

Head coach, 2011-‘14

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Jim McIsaac/Getty Images via ESPN

I don’t need to go into as much detail because the story is legend: Harbaugh inherited a disappointing #1 overall pick and Urban Meyer creature in Alex Smith, whom everyone supposed had one foot out the door during the lockout. After meeting with Harbaugh, Smith instead led the team’s offseason workouts, and came back as a more than adequate pro starter in a simplified scheme post-snap scheme:

But Harbaugh has also changed the entire theory behind how Smith and his offense approach the blitz, and this is where Smith’s greatest improvement has come. That’s because Harbaugh eliminated “sight adjustments” from the 49ers playbook.

The quarterback still needs an anti-blitz option or two, and these are known as “hot” routes. The difference between Harbaugh’s “hot routes” and the sight adjustment is that he builds them into the receivers’ regular routes. In short,every play has at least one hot route.

This is a Nussmeier thing too but wasn’t in Borges’s offense. On film you can recognize it in receivers constantly looking back after seven steps. That is of course coordinated with the quarterback’s footwork, and the reason you’re starting to recognize it now is it’s right out of Bill Walsh.

Then Kaepernick took over because he could pass like Alex and run better. Brian summarized Harbaugh’s approach to quarterback legs in the NFL:

For two, Harbaugh has shown a tactical flexibility that eluded Hoke. Harbaugh inherited 2005 #1 overall pick Alex Smith and threw him overboard in his second year for Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has rushed for about 500 yards a year since his installation as the starter as the 49ers have moved towards a spread-ish system that uses Kaepernick's mobility in a modern, NFL-appropriate way.

The results were way fewer turnovers without losing efficiency:

Player Year Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rtg R Att R-Yds YPP*
Alex Smith 2005 165 50.9% 875 1 11 40.8 30 103 3.54
Alex Smith 2006 442 58.1% 2890 16 16 74.8 44 147 5.44
Alex Smith 2007 193 48.7% 914 2 4 57.2 13 89 3.96
Alex Smith 2009 372 60.5% 2350 18 12 81.5 24 51 5.42
Alex Smith 2010 342 59.6% 2370 14 10 82.1 18 60 5.95
Alex Smith 2011 445 61.3% 3144 17 5 90.7 52 179 5.66
Alex Smith 2012 218 70.2% 1737 13 5 104.1 31 132 6.34
Colin Kaepernick 2012 218 62.4% 1814 10 3 98.3 63 415 7.13
Colin Kaepernick 2013 416 58.4% 3197 21 8 91.6 92 524 6.38
Colin Kaepernick 2014 478 60.5% 3369 19 10 86.4 104 639 5.78
Alex Smith pre-JH (16-gm avg) 449 57.1% 2785 15 16 72.1 38 133 5.12
JH's SF quarterbacks (16-ga) 444 61.6% 3315 20 8 92.4 86 472 6.14

* YPP includes sacks and rushes

Harbaugh fixed Alex Smith, drafted Kaepernick out of a pistol spread-to-run offense in Nevada, and ultimately increased completion percentage 5 points, halved interceptions, and added a yard per every play a quarterback was involved in.

Comments

Wolverine 73

March 3rd, 2015 at 6:00 PM ^

essentially required that he be right virtually every time he recruited a QB.  Why would anyone think that could happen?  People whiff on every position, guys get hurt, or get homesick, or don't want to sit.  So you end up with what we had the last two years.  Nice to see competition at the key offensive spot.

Yostbound and Down

March 3rd, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^

Still sorta fascinating that he continued to bench Smith for Kaepernick once Smith was (reportedly) healthy. At least looking at the numbers, Smith looks like he was having a pretty great year in 2012 when Kaep took over.  

PAproudtoGoBlue

March 3rd, 2015 at 4:51 PM ^

Damn he must LOVE quarterback competition,  I mean Luck in the fold and still trying to land RGIII.  Could you imagine that even Harbaugh would have been reduced to a coin toss when selecting his starter. At least at the college level not the pros.

Lt. Pete Mitchell

March 3rd, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^

Seems to me that Malzone fits his mold best - smart, dual sport athelete, mobile but pro-style, and proven winner.  Perhaps thats why Brian pegged him out of our QB circus.

All that said, true freshman QB's are scary.  I also don't think any of the other guys are too far off his criteria.

 

 

Jonadan

March 3rd, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^

I ask because there's one apparent glaring fault highlighted by the statistics, which is that Kaep's YPP fell every year under Harbaugh.  The NFL-writer-narrative this year was that Harbaugh was "breaking" Kaepernick by insisting on [exact problem not clear], but that seems unlikely given his track record; my instinct is to look for a decline/other problems in the surrounding "pieces" of the team, but (a) I don't know how to go about analyzing that, (b) anyway I barely watched the 49ers this past season, and (c) obviously no position exists in a vacuum.

One concerning interpretation might be that NFL defenses are starting to figure out Harbaugh's "system", if it's fair to say he has a system, and under that interpretation we want to ask whether college guys will do the same.  (As a sort of flip side of this argument I'd point to MSU's emerging defensive issues this past season.)  I'm not sure whether this adds weight to the argument or is a reason for dismissing it, but Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona are all at least characterized as "defensive" teams right now.

Of course "struggles vs. really good defenses" isn't exactly a valid criticism of any offensive scheme - no one's claiming Oregon's offense is suddenly in trouble.  But I'm curious what you think here.  Especially since we're playing MSU and Ohio State every year!

Seth

March 4th, 2015 at 8:16 AM ^

They had some injuries and yes the receiver corps was falling off. The biggest thing I think that happened to their offense this year is the running game fell apart with a lot of injuries and holdouts and new offensive linemen, and first Gore and then several other backs got hurt. Harbaugh's offense really functions on the ability to manball and when they could no longer run as well defenses got merciless, attacking Kaep off the snap more often. He's a decent QB but not a great one, and once he started getting whacked a lot per game his efficiency dropped from top third of NFL QBs to just under average, and he got caught with more INTs.

schreibee

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:53 PM ^

I believe there's some validity to that "meme" - and perhaps it's one of the fundamental causes of fissures in the Harbaugh-Baalke relationship.

But as an avid (now former) 49er fan and Harbaugh-backer (before he signed with Michigan, now we are all in his corner) the primary problem with Kap in '14 was multiple injuries and holdouts on the OL, along with the departure in free agency of Michigan-man C Jonathan Goodwin.

That much turmoil and inconsistency along the line will give any QB problems, and the potential mixed messages on how best to develop Kap, if not outright war between management saying preserve him while Jim knew he had to win immediately to keep the job, in my opinion were the reasons for Kap's apparent step back.

In short, I think JH will continue to be the outstanding recruiter and developer of QBs he had been prior to '14, the turmoil in SF was an aberration...

mwolverine1

March 3rd, 2015 at 5:03 PM ^

Does anyone remember Andrew Luck's recruiting story? It seems as if he was much more highly rated than his offers would indicate. Only major offer I can find is Bama...and that was before Nick Saban had any success

Seth

March 4th, 2015 at 8:52 AM ^

I do remember it and got a refresher while doing this article. Luck's recruiting story happened mostly his junior year, so while he was a 2008 recruit his stories were rolled up into the 2007 class articles. That's why I remember it better than I would otherwise--Mallett was in those articles.

He went to a school in Houston that's called the Spartans and wears green and white and uses MSU's logo. However he wasn't very "Texas." Luck was born in Washington D.C. (his dad was a former West Virginia AD) and grew up mostly in Europe (London, Frankfurt, forget where else) so he wasn't a UT or A&M fan like his classmates. Actually he liked soccer--his dad started the MLS team in Houston. If any school had an inside track it would have been West Virginia, but Rich Rodriguez wasn't an Andrew Luck kind of offense and Rich Rod wasn't going anywhere (...until 8 months after Luck committed to Stanford).

He did go to Texas's camp but didn't get an offer--they were all in on Garrett Gilbert (and OC Colt McCoy's little brother). They offered RGIII as an athlete and didn't offer Johnny Manziel because they were looking at him as a defensive back.

From the get-go he wanted to go to an elite academic institution, and was looking at things like Rice and Northwestern (and Purdue). Michigan didn't get into it because we were courting Mallett, and Threet was transferring in, so Lloyd expected they could get by with Weinke in the 2008 class unless like Les Miles or Mike DeBord or Kirk Ferentz or whoever took over Michigan wanted someone else.

Alabama was recruiting him heavily and they were probably the stiffest competition at the start (Saban was in year 2) but Luck was making comments like he didn't want to go somewhere that he'd need to sign autographs in class and dropped them behind the trio above. Stanford was the most likely destination for him before they signed Harbaugh, and once they did, Jim made a visit to Houston and got mustard on his shirt and Luck loved him immediately and it was a fait accompli. Luck officially committed in June 2007 after visiting and meeting Bill Walsh and Joe Montana, though Stanford was the presumed choice since signing day.

If other coaches tried to recruit him after he committed it didn't register in recruiting news, probably because once Stanford upset USC that year it was obvious Harbaugh had them on the right track, and he was walking into a situation where if he didn't win the job earlier he'd be a redshirt sophomore when Pritchard cleared out.

Seth

March 4th, 2015 at 8:58 AM ^

It's leet for Ha or Harbaugh. I asked readers for a new name for Hokepoints and this is what they came up with. We split Hokepoints into a general football X's and O's and history and whatnot column (H4) and a let's play with stats and spreadsheets column (Jimmystats)

DarkWolverine

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:28 PM ^

Harbaugh Only Had 4 Years at Stanford
But, except for Luck, had a mediocre record in developing QBs. In contrast, Urban Meyer has 3 all Big10, and maybe 2 all Americans on his current roster. Hoping for more success at Michigan for Harbaugh.




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teldar

March 3rd, 2015 at 9:14 PM ^

For one thing, Urban didn't recruit all of the QB's he's had. Tressel recruited a few of them and they were doing well under him, even with Tresselball. And I'm pretty sure that the recruiting rankings were all pretty good for all of OSU's QBs. It sounds like Jim took a lot of reaches and fliers because 1) Stanford (academics) and 2) Stanford (pre-Harbaugh Footsball success - NONE). So I don't think you can compare them as if it is apples to apples.

 

Haywood Jablomy

March 4th, 2015 at 7:18 AM ^

at the qb posiion. Not sure any will do much after college. It isn't a knock but he doens't develop qb's...he runs a system. And to be honest, it's a system that does a disservice to any qb wanting to not only get to the next level but succeed. 

Why are you bringing up that mother fuckers name anyway. Strange comparison given the topic, the board and the lack of credence to the issue of meyer developing "QB"s. 

xtramelanin

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:36 PM ^

nice work.  i hope all the QB recruits in america read this and KNOW that hargaugh is the guy.

go blue.

CoachBP6

March 3rd, 2015 at 11:18 PM ^

I love the built in hot routes because it allows the QB to think less and react more. The importance of football IQ cannot be overstated. Our QB's currently on the roster are going to get better and better the more time they spend with Harbaugh. Calling three plays in the huddle isn't exactly unique (many teams call at least two). Having the football IQ to recognize the highest percentage play versus the pre snap defense is the chess part of football that I love, and is why I have studied and obsessed over the game for 23 years.

Im a big fan of Wilton Speight and I believe he is the perfect fit for what Harbaugh is looking to do. Prior to coming to Michigan, Wilton had a private QB guru teaching him the in depth intangibles that not many high school QB's get. Initially Wilton had a funky release and average arm strength, but from what limited video I have seen from him he has fixed the release and added the necessary arm strength to thrive at the college level. The best thing about Wilton is his determination and his athleticism at 6'6" 235.

Malzone / Gentry both possess the swagger and skill set to push for the starting job. Obviously Malzone has a leg up on Gentry, but it's clear that Gentry's ceiling is much, much higher. The race for starter is going to be fierce and full of competition at every turn. Whoever comes out on top is going to be the one who has the best football IQ along with the ability to operate Harbaugh's offense / make all of the throws.

Many people are worried about the QB position, and rightfully so. I'm here to tell you that the starting QB at Michigan this fall will exceed expectations because of Jim Harbaugh and hits simplification of all things a QB does. Get ready ladies and Gents. Michigan is once again headed for success.

Yooper

March 4th, 2015 at 12:19 AM ^

Rivals has a free article up today that suggests strongly that we are very much in the race for Costello, despite some comments earlier this week. It's pretty clear that the presence of JH is what gets us in the hunt for Costello. I have no doubt we will bring in quality, and potentially great, QB's every year.

Ron Utah

March 4th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^

Kap and Hack are examples of what happens when your offensive line play declines precipitously. Hackenberg didn't become a ba QB as a sophomore and Kaepernick didn't become a bad QB because he's a year older. The O-line play directly impacts the QB and both guys faced softer protection this year. That's not all there is to it, but that's a big part of it.




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