Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Boston University Comment Count

Adam Schnepp

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[James Coller/MGoBlog]

Friday, November 11, 2016

#18 Michigan 4, #4 Boston University 0

1st period

LOCKWOOD GOAL

UM 1 BU 0 PPG 10:04 Assists: Piazza & Slaker

Slaker wins the draw cleanly back to Piazza. He surveys options in front of him and sees that nothing’s developed yet, so he starts to move laterally with the puck; you can see that Lockwood’s already on the same page and moving to his left.

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Slaker cuts to the middle of the ice to give Piazza a passing option to the right, while Lockwood loops behind Piazza and presents an option to the left. You can see in this screen cap that there’s only one defender involved in the play, and since Slaker gets in front of him he now isn’t sure whether he should stay in place, carry Slaker, or start to his right to pick up Lockwood.

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The defender decides to shove Slaker and then stay in place, which meansh he has to dig in and sprint once he sees Piazza pass to Lockwood.

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Lockwood has all the time he needs to make a decision and a move, and he decides that he wants to wrong-foot a shot from the top of the circle and hope that the traffic in the shooting lane screens the goaltender.

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The puck grazes the side of the BU defender at the bottom of the faceoff circle and slightly changes direction, and BU’s Jake Oettinger has almost no chance at stopping the shot.

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[After THE JUMP: moooooore goals (also, more goals for the other guys)]

CALDERONE GOAL

UM 2 BU 0 PPG 10:41 Assists: Dancs & Martin

Dancs starts skating down the wing, and this gets both BU defenders to their goaltender’s left to pay attention. The two defenders begin to converge, as both believe it’s their job to take Dancs.

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Dancs sees this and knows that there’s an easy pass to Calderone available if he times it right. He draws both defenders in and flips a pass to his left as they both stretch out their sticks, getting the puck through just before the passing lane closes.

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Calderone sees Warren’s in position to screen the goaltender, and suddenly it’s useful that he drifted to the goalie’s right. There’s a gap between Warren’s legs and to the goalie’s right that Calderone chooses.

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Calderone’s shot is perfectly accurate. Oettinger is flat footed and doesn’t push off, and instead is only able to futiley stab at the puck (that’s already in the net) with his right pad.

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2nd period

No scoring

3rd period

SLAKER GOAL

UM 3 BU 0 EV 06:17 Assists: Lockwood

A puck gets deflected in the neutral zone and loops up and into Michigan’s offensive zone. Slaker races to the puck and carries down the right wing before deciding to shoot. The puck hits a defender’s leg and ricochets.

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Lockwood has entered the offensive zone and gains possession; he skates toward the boards, while Slaker gets in position to provide support by looping to the top of the faceoff circle and to Lockwood’s right.

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Lockwood stops and puts a really nice move on the defender, pulling the puck around his outstretched stick as he attempts to poke-check it away. Lockwood and Slaker, seeing that Lockwood is essentially one-on-one with the defender, read the situation and simultaneously skate past him.

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Once they get past #17, there’s one guy between the two of them and the net. Lockwood and Slaker just created a 2-on-1 for themselves deep in the offensive zone, and that’s really impressive.

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Lockwood charges the net with the kind of speed that makes it seem like he’s probably going to attempt to jam the puck in on the goalie. Slaker opens up to receive a pass as precautionary measure, something to make the defender think before fully committing to Lockwood.

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Lockwood decides to use the netfront defender’s wide base to his advantage, threading a pass through his legs. It’s a risky move considering how close he is to the goalie, but Lockwood’s come in on goal fast enough that the goalie’s main concern is getting his paddle down, not poke-checking it away.

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The puck hits Slaker’s skate, but not before he gets a shot attempt off; he one-times a shot a split-second after the screen cap above that he whiffs on since the puck hasn’t reached him yet. He then uses the deflection like it’s part of the pass, getting his stick over and immediately backhanding a shot into the top corner before Oettinger can get any further to his left.

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CALDERONE GOAL

UM 4 BU 0 EN 15:25 Assists: Winborg

Winborg gains possession of the puck along the boards and takes a hit, but not before he moves it ahead for Calderone.

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Calderone also has a defender right in his face, but he’s able to flip the puck ahead unimpeded and it hits the empty net. Kudos to BU for pulling the goalie early, at least. I can’t find it right now, but I remember one of the first fancystats things I really internalized was a study of when to pull the goalie; you’ve got a much better chance to score if you pull him with three or four minutes to go than if you wait until there are only one or two minutes left.

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Saturday, November 12, 2016

#18 Michigan 2, #4 Boston University 4

1st period

WARREN GOAL

UM 1 BU 0 EV 02:11 Assists: Sanchez & De Jong

Warren rims the puck around, and it looks like it’s going to be picked off in the opposite corner of the rink. Sanchez, though, is in good position to make a play. Instead of trying to pick up the puck, he throws a hard check and erases the BU player from the play. The puck subsequently continues up the boards.

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De Jong pinches at the right time and seals the puck along the boards. He gains control and lifts a saucer pass over the outstretched stick of a defender, connecting with Sanchez as he skates out of the corner.

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You can see from the screen cap above that Sanchez is going to have a clear path to the front of the net because the nearest defender is up the boards from him. Once he gets the puck, he skates toward the net. There’s a defender crouched and ready to pounce should he try to get into the crease, so Sanchez looks and sees Warren’s in the slot and a left-handed shot, meaning he can easily put the puck on Warren’s forehand and give him a scoring opportunity.

The defender next to Warren (Kelley) makes one critical error: he turns his head to the corner to presumably look for Warren, and that both slows him and doesn’t inform him of Warren’s presence behind him. Warren one-times a shot off Sanchez’s pass and beats Oettinger far-side.

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2nd period

Fabbro goal

UM 1 BU 1 PPG 05:28 Assists: Harper & McAvoy

The puck is flipped through the neutral zone and picked up by Luke Martin upon landing. Martin tries to backhand the puck toward Michigan’s offensive zone, but Harper skates into it; there’s very little chance Martin saw Harper because of the Warren and McAvoy’s position. The puck hits Harper and falls.

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Martin does a good job forcing Harper from one end of the B1G logo to the other and thus preventing him from gaining the zone with speed. Even so, Harper’s able to spin off Martin and work back to the opposite side of the ice.

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Harper hits Fabbro as he enters the zone. Fabbro’s entering with speed, while Sanchez has just passed off a BU skater to his netfront teammates and is caught a bit flat-footed.

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Fabbro snaps a shot on net that’s absolutely perfectly placed. Look at how small a window LaFontaine gives Fabbro over his nearside shoulder. I don’t know why Sanchez decided to pull up here (even if he’s assigned a zone to cover, I’d think he would scrap that and carry the shooter deep when he sees there’s no help), but the shot itself is hard to be mad at.

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3rd period

McAvoy goal

UM 1 BU 2 EV 09:04 Assists: Greenway

First of all, there’s no way this goal should have happened. Slaker hooks a guy in the corner and it’s pretty obvious, what with his stick is wrapped around the guy as he skates out of the corner and all. Then Greenway holds Luce’s stick for five seconds (!) as he scoots the puck ahead for himself to play in the corner.

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Greenway pushes the puck ahead, turning and regaining possession as three defenders converge.

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Greenway is somehow able to thread a really accurate pass through three crashing defenders. Dancs is unable to get in front of McAvoy or poke-check the puck away, and when it does arrive McAvoy just has to get something under it to lift up and over LaFontaine.

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DANCS GOAL

UM 2 BU 2 EV 10:25 Assists: Unassisted

Slaker blocks a shot just inside the blue line and the puck is knocked over to Dancs. Dancs and Slaker then take off through the neutral zone, with Slaker delaying just a bit as he sees a defender, effectively setting a pick for Dancs.

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Slaker accelerates and occupies a defender. That isolates Dancs on the right D, who almost swipes the pick in the screen cap below. Dancs is able to regain possession and carries wide before cutting in just a bit toward the bottom of the faceoff circle.

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The defender is so close to Dancs that his stick is violently knocked away as Dancs releases. I’ve never seen anything like this before. It’s hard to tell what exactly is going on with the goaltender because of weird replay angles, but it seems like he let this one past short-side.

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Greenway goal

UM 2 BU 3 EV 12:37 Assists: Forsbacka-Karlsson & McAvoy

BU gathers the puck off a dump-in behind their net and starts the breakout, getting the puck cleanly into the neutral zone. Forsbacka-Karlsson gains the offensive zone as Lockwood arrives, and though he provides some resistance he’s unable to slow him down.

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Piazza squares up Forsbacka-Karlsson and tries to hip check him, but he starts his check too far away. Forsbacak-Karlsson again lives to see another stride, skating past Piazza and toward the front of the net.

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Boka’s in position to take Forsbacka-Karlsson, but he first has to make sure that Harper is moved to the corner. Boka stick checks him, but he’s still able to get the puck on net.

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LaFontaine kicks the puck away, but the rebound ends up in the middle of the slot. Greenway has a step on Dancs, who doesn’t notice Greenway until he’s next to him, and closes on the puck first.

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LaFontaine has the bottom of the net sealed, but there’s no way he’s getting back up in time to take away the corners before Greenway can hack a backhander on net. Dancs gets his stick in front of Greenway for a second but isn’t in position to much other than hook him; Greenway hits the top corner glove-side.

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Harper goal

UM 2 BU 4 EV 15:03 Assists: Carpenter & Greenway

BU’s in the middle of some extended offensive zone time here; first a shot’s thrown on net from near the blue line that’s saved and pushed behind the net, then BU regains possession, then they send it up to just inside the blueline and throw another shot on net that’s blocked, then they regain possession again and rim the puck around from LaFontaine’s right to the back of the net. Greenway beats Boka and passes up to the point.

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You can see in the screen cap above that most of Michigan’s defenders have collapsed on net, so it’s little surprise that there’s not much resistance for Carpenter at the point. To be clear, that’s not so much a criticism as an explanation; usually collapsing with one high is fine, but you’re opening yourself up to a long shot like Carpenter launches.

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Harper’s cutting through the slot at the right time, as the puck is deflected off of him and nestles just inside the top corner.

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Notes, rants, and ramblings:

  • The last goal/preceding extended zone time probably left a bad taste in your mouth, but I do think that Michigan’s team defense is better than it’s been in at least four seasons. Saturday’s first goal is a really good example of how Michigan’s forechecking has improved, and in that instance led to a scoring opportunity. They’re getting sticks into passing lanes, forcing skaters away from their first choice wrt passing or shooting, and generally providing more resistance along the boards. They’ve often gotten two guys in on the forecheck and applied pressure, and when that hasn’t worked there have been times where they’ve put three guys on the blueline to slow opposing offenses. There’s certainly still work to be done, but a lot of it seems like the stuff that can be improved through film study (for example, Piazza’s hip-check whiff above can be sorted out.)
  • That being said, the defensive tightening has been necessary. According to College Hockey News, Michigan’s Corsi For % is a lowly 40.7%. For the sake of comparison, Ohio State’s CF% is 53.8% and Minnesota’s is 55.2%. Corsi is a measure that’s a proxy for possession and takes into account shots on net, missed shots, and blocked shots. Michigan’s been able to prevent the Grade A scoring chances they’ve ceded so often the last three or so years for the most part (some guys lost a skater in the slot, which is something to keep an eye on over the next few series), but their goaltenders are getting peppered with shots because Michigan’s offense is unable to get any sustained offensive zone time.
  • There were a number of times against BU where a Michigan skater would cross the blueline and fire a long shot on net or dump the puck in with a couple of defenders back and no Michigan skater close enough for that to be anything other than a turnover. I don’t know if that was a coaching point or something that the players were doing on their own, but I wasn’t sure what the endgame was there.

Comments

Lou MacAdoo

November 17th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^

That Fabbro goal was wicked nasty. Pretty solid showing against a loaded opponent. I haven't had a chance to watch a game yet this year. Has there been any suprise players stepping up on the offensive end? 

Adam Schnepp

November 17th, 2016 at 11:18 AM ^

Lockwood and Slaker have both exceeded my expectations offensively and defensively. I've been really impressed with everything they've done so far. They probably aren't going to deke a guy out of his jock, but they pressure along the boards, create turnovers, and get into good position to take a pass and score. Slaker's also been good on faceoffs.

Wolverine In Exile

November 17th, 2016 at 12:27 PM ^

Lockwood looks like a huge surprise.. an actual quasi-power forward that can generate scoring chances that we haven't had in a long time. I think our goal scoring might be OK in that we're not going to have a dominant #1 line, but it might be death by a thousand cuts type of distributed scoring. I've also been impressed overall with Piazza. Didn't think he was a top pairing type of D-man, but en total he's played well. I don't think we're in the top 2 in the conference, but I think we're solidly the 3rd or 4th team, which will mean we will have a realistic chance to play our way in on the last weekend. 

JJJ

November 17th, 2016 at 9:55 PM ^

How are these games against BU not available online? These are 2 nationally ranked teams played in a Big Ten arena yet not shown on BTN or Fox Sports Detroit, I don't understand.