Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Big Ten Tournament 2017 Comment Count

Adam Schnepp

Thursday, March 17, 2017

Michigan 1, Penn State 4

1st period

Folkes Goal

UM 0 PSU 1 PPG 10:50 Assists: Biro & Autio

Folkes passes to Biro, who takes the pass and skates behind the net. Cecconi, who’s currently in the slot, makes a smart move: he checks for anyone cutting in backside before turning to pick up the skater behind the net.

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As Biro emerges on Cecconi’s side of the net, he finds himself close to having the puck knocked away. Meanwhile, Folkes sees Biro in trouble and skates behind the net to get into position for a pass back. That’s when things really go sideways for Michigan. Biro slams on the brakes and spins back; Folkes continues skating and slips past Cecconi, turning so that his logo is facing the goaltender and ready for a quick wrister should the puck come out.

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It does. Biro backhands a perfect pass to Folkes, who just has to snap it on net. Nagelvoort is thinking that Biro is going to try to wrap it around on the other side, and even though De Jong is there he comes off the post a bit. That opens up enough space for Folkes to bury it. The play’s pretty much doomed the minute Cecconi overplays Biro and doesn’t come away with the puck. Even so, give Penn State credit for executing a really impressive switch, pass, and shot. This is far from Michigan’s worst defensive breakdown of the season and PSU made the goal look effortless.

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[After THE JUMP: It’s a tournament, so the bounces were going to be weird. Also, some thoughts on Red’s future.]

Sucese Goal

UM 0 PSU 2 EV 13:24 Assists: Smirnov & DeRosa

Sometimes you’re on. Sometimes you’re tantalizingly close only to have the puck hop over your stick. You could probably tell what happened from the specificity of the second sentence. Also the screen shot. The puck hops up and over and rolls out of the zone, resulting in a massive footrace for puck possession.

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De Jong comes up to play the puck and stops too early; he reaches for it but ends up losing the battle to a guy whose stick is so far back the blade’s hidden behind his legs in the screenshot below. This is ugly.

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Smirnov chases the puck down along the boards in the offensive zone, skates past the Michigan defender’s outstretched stick, and throws a cross-ice feed in anticipation of Sucese closing on it.

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Sucese barely gets there, but barely getting there works when the goaltender’s hung out to dry as badly as Nagelvoort is. This is yet another instance of Michigan defender inexplicably double-teaming a skater when there’s another guy to check who’s clearly in on the play.

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Goodwin Goal

UM 0 PSU 3 EV 19:31 Assists: Marsh & Autio

So, this will serve as a teaching moment for Cecconi. He’s starting the breakout and decides to bank the puck off the boards under the assumption that he’ll easily get it past the PSU forechecker and to his teammate at the red line. The other option he has is to pass to his defense partner, who is bliteringly open and has no opposition skater remotely close.

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The puck gets smothered along the boards and turned over to Penn State. Autio pushes it ahead to Marsh, who’s in behind the defense and able to gain the zone unperturbed.

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Marsh has Goodwin to his right and one Michigan defender in between them. Goodwin stays a step behind Marsh, which makes it tremendously difficult for De Jong to take away the pass. Once he falls to the ice that pass is getting through, that much is certain.

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Nagelvoort gets his glove up and takes away the near-side top corner but has a miniscule opening between his blocker and leg pad, and that gap (the six hole) is where Goodwin buries it.

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2nd period

Pedrie Goal

UM 0 PSU 4 EV 01:03 Assists: Sucese

Sucese wins the draw back to Pedrie, who’s ready to step into a huge one-timer. Michigan fans out off the faceoff; nothing terribly unusual there.

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There are two Michigan defenders converging and yet the puck still manages to split them at the only possible milisecond it can so without hitting someone’s hip or jersey of elbow guard and something, anything that would alter its path. The hockey gods were piling on Thursday night, it seems.

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Worth noting is both how quickly the shot got on net and that the two Michigan skaters were likely blocking Nagelvoort’s view of the puck. Not saying they did anything wrong; they got into the lane and tried to take the shot away as they should. Just unfortunate for Nagelvoort, who had a good game otherwise.

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SANCHEZ GOAL

UM 1 PSU 4 PPG 10:19 Assists: Calderone & Marody

Marody walks in from the top of the faceoff circle and pulls the puck on a string across the front of the PSU defender, opening a passing lane for himself to the left. He dishes to Calderone, who has an excellent scoring chance thanks to a goaltender out of place and defenders preoccupied with netfront and slot skaters.

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The feed looked clean but something obviously got in the way; the puck’s floating next to Calderone’s knee in the screenshot below.

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Calderone gets a second chance at the puck as it lays next to the defenseman’s stomach. He gets under it enough to create a bunker-esque flop shot, a shot that Sanchez sees coming, turns into, and knocks in.

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3rd period

No scoring

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Or, more accurately, the lithe septuagenarian behind the bench. After nearly retiring at the end of the 2015-16 season, Red Berenson decided to come back for one more year. Manuel asked him to return; Red had just finished a season that reinvigorated him and his staff and (he thought) his players. Red knew he wouldn’t be getting puck-moving defensemen Zach Werenski and Michael Downing back, but he had worked with Manuel when Manuel was an administrator for the hockey program, the two maintained a good relationship, and Manuel hadn’t even moved into his house yet. Coming back for one more year—in part as a favor to Warde, in part because he liked his team’s prospects—made some sense.

Three days after Berenson announced he was returning, Tyler Motte signed with the Chicago Blackhawks. Kyle Connor signed with the Winnipeg Jets five days after that. Two weeks later, JT Compher, team captain and subject of rumors claiming he was a lock to return, signed with the Colorado Avalanche. Coupled with the loss of seniors Boo Nieves and Justin Selman, Berenson’s 2016-17 squad was suddenly in need of a talent infusion (and a couple extra bodies to fill out the roster).

Michigan’s 2016 recruiting class had one potential first-round draft pick in Luke Martin and varying levels of additional talent; Will Lockwood was selected in the third round and a few other teams took a flier on a guy in later rounds. They played about as their draft position predicted, which is to say that they filled in as admirably as possible but couldn’t possibly produce the offense needed to overcome widespread defensive malaise. Only two teams in the nation allowed more shot attempts; Michigan predictably never sniffed tournament contention and finished with their lowest win total since 1985-86.

In most ways, the program has been in stasis for the last five years. The teams heavy on offensive firepower have scored their way to moderate success, the ones without defensive acumen have given up painful goals, and the ones with great goaltending have watched the guy between the pipes stand on his head (while the ones with poor goaltending have watched the guy between the pipes let a slow roller dribble through with frustrating regularity). Development takes place in fits and starts, for some guys on some lines, for some games and not others. Berenson ostensibly came back for one more year; he met with Manuel last week and the two decided to broach the subject of his future as Michigan’s head coach this week. At the very least, Berenson is considering returning for (in theory) one more year.

Michigan’s prospects next season, however, look almost the same as they did coming into 2016-17. They’re losing Alex Kile, Nolan De Jong, and Zach Nagelvoort. All three goalies were excellent in 2016-17; the two left should be excellent in 2017-18. The defense loses De Jong and won’t add a player who can pass like him. Kile’s loss should be offset by the addition of Josh Norris, who’s expected to be selected in the firs two rounds of the 2017 Draft. There’s little reason to think next season won’t be a carbon copy of the one that just concluded, which is to say another season that dulls the luster of Berenson’s legacy.

Berenson spent a couple of years rebuilding the program, over two and a half decades maintaining what he built, and half a decade focused on how beautifully assembled the frame of the house is while failing to address the paint peeling off the front or the leaky pipe in the basement. It seems far more likely that returning for one more year simply adds another season to his list of teams that missed the tournament than the alternative.

If Berenson was set on retiring he would have let it be known; the meeting he has with Manuel this week is not a mere formality. He has said that losing is wearing on him, that he isn’t sure how much of that he can take. The emotional toll of losing, however, may be superseded by optimism and the belief that one maintains the powers they had in their prime despite evidence to the contrary. 

Berenson’s feeling the competitive desire to finish on a higher note than 13 wins; he has to determine whether said desire adversely affects his duty to leave the program in turnkey condition for the next head coach. Between Manuel and Berenson’s relationship and the optics of chaining the door on a legend who still feels he has one (probably) more good year in him, there’s virtually no chance the athletic department makes the decision for him. Michigan’s left in a Catch-22: they’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Just as it was in 1984, the future of the program is firmly in the hands of Red.

Comments

MGoArchive

March 21st, 2017 at 3:56 PM ^

I hate to be fatalistic about it, but there comes a time for EVERYONE in their life when they need to gracefully exit.

It is absolutely within the AD's control to make this decision for him. NO ONE is bigger than the program. Hell, even Bo said/knew this.

It would be sad if Red disagreed and there was an acriminal split, but this is the last lesson for all Michigan Men in the end - the timing to pass the baton.

SyracuseWolvrine

March 21st, 2017 at 6:26 PM ^

The first goal is one of the biggest weaknesses of the butterfly style of goaltending - you can't defend against a pass from behind the net to the low slot. With the more stand up style that was common until the early 2000's, a goalie could keep their pad pressed against the post but facing mostly forward, which allowed them to defend the wraparound but also be in position to make the save on a quick pass to the front. 

(of course, they have to make sure that they stay on the post long enough, or else you let in a Josh Langfeld on Scott Clemmensen '98-type goal) 

Marty Turco makes that save.