Ghosts Of Gergmas Past
11/28/2015 – Michigan 42, Ohio State 13 – 9-3, 6-2 Big Ten
[Bryan Fuller]
I did not make a list of the things I was hoping to avoid thinking on Saturday, but if I had "This reminds me of Greg Robinson" would have been near the top of the list. It probably doesn't beat out "I hope I can find that limb again" or "so that's what a velociraptor looks like", but it's a close thing.
But there I was, watching 225-pound James Ross line up just behind a nose tackle and thinking about Kenny Demens. Poor damn Kenny Demens.
The last time Michigan installed a 3-3-5 on short notice that didn't look like the way other teams run a 3-3-5 it looked like that. Michigan gave up 41 points on just nine drives to Matt McGloin. I'm sure someone has run this at some point in the history of football and had it work, but I'm still at a loss to explain how that might happen. Whenever it's raised its head at Michigan it's been a debacle.
This was a debacle.
-------------------------------------
The 3-3-5 wasn't a constant and may have been a misguided attempt to save the DL's legs since they had been whittled down to the starters over the course of the year, but as potential game-changing responses to the Ohio State approach to footballin' go… well, it did change the game.
Michigan did need to have something in their back pocket. I spent big chunks of the preview speculating about what might happen if and when Michigan was forced to abandon the defense it has played for much of the season. Playing man coverage with a deep safety against a team with a heavy QB run game and a superior tailback is only viable if you can win one-on-one battles up front.
Michigan has won those all year, but when Ryan Glasgow got knocked out of the lineup, Indiana exposed the remaining guys with tempo and a bunch of stretch plays, but they were still individually dominant against inside zone. Ohio State runs a lot of inside zone. Michigan got ripped on it.
Since OSU uses their quarterback as a runner extensively, Michigan spent most of he day with one fewer guy in the box than Ohio State had blockers. Often they lined up with one DL between Ohio State's tackles. After a reasonable start they got gashed towards the end of the first half, just in time for adjustments.
There were no adjustments. Michigan got its face caved in. When Michigan put three DL out there they got locked on the field; when OSU faced a third and short they went tempo and ran inside zone. Michigan had no response for this OSU tactic that dates back to the dawn of the Urban Meyer era.
The overall narrative of this season is still a highly encouraging one, but here Michigan has a choice: wake up like OSU did after their own debacle a week ago, or keep showing up in the most important game of the year completely incapable of holding the opposition under 300 yards a game.
DJ Durkin is indeed a promising defensive coordinator but the failure to respond when Indiana was ripping Michigan late and during this entire game should have us pumping our brakes on just how good he is. This is a punch in the mouth. We'll have to wait a year before a response, if Durkin hasn't already left town for a head job elsewhere.
---------------------------
But hey, we're disappointed about 9-3 that isn't 10-2 because of a galactically unlikely outcome at the end of the Michigan State game. Since 99% of Michigan fans predicted 8-4 or worse, that's something. Turning Jake Rudock into a killer quarterback is something. Three consecutive shutouts are something, and Michigan goes into the offseason with a lot of anger to fuel improvement.
Forward, and never look back at this one.
AWARDS
[Fuller]
![-2535ac8789d1b499[1]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/images/537fc4d56c20_9177/-2535ac8789d1b4991f1c37dee-a502-44d9-94ed-bee425f87474.jpg)
Known Friends And Trusted Agents Of The Week
you're the man now, dog
#1 Jehu Chesson had 111 receiving yards and Michigan's touchdown on a series of catches ranging routine to excellent. Darboh struggled to get separation; Chesson was generally open. That's a great sign for his ability to shake anybody and hopefully presages a big-time senior year.
#2 Jake Rudock completed his incredible in-season turnaround with an 8.2 YPA day against one of the best pass defenses in the country, and that was without a whole lot of help after the catch. Rudock placed a bunch of throws just in front of the safeties, didn't throw anything approximating an interception, and dealt with a lot of pressure heroically. Just a stunning reversal, and a tribute to Harbaugh's QB coaching ability.
#3 Jake Butt caught five passes and further separated himself from the Big Ten tight end pack; he has still dropped just one vaguely reasonable pass all year. You might notice that all of these things are related to Michigan's passing battery, because that was the only good bit from the game.
Honorable mention: the refs for not calling holding a half-dozen times against whoever was trying to block Bosa. Peppers, I suppose.
KFaTAotW Standings.
10: Jake Rudock (#3 Northwestern, #1 Rutgers, #1 Indiana, #3 Penn State, #2 OSU)
9: Jourdan Lewis (#1 UNLV, #1 Northwestern, #1 MSU), Jabrill Peppers(#2 BYU, #2 Northwestern, #2 MSU, #1 Minnesota)
8: Chris Wormley(#2 Utah, #1 Oregon State, #3 Rutgers, #2 Penn State)
6: Jake Butt(#1 Utah, #2 Rutgers, #3 OSU)
5: Jehu Chesson(#2 Indiana, #1 OSU)
4: Maurice Hurst (#2 Maryland, #2 Minnesota),
3: De'Veon Smith(#2 Oregon State, #3 BYU), Ryan Glasgow (#1 BYU), Desmond Morgan (#1 Maryland), Amara Darboh(#1 PSU)
2: Ty Isaac(#2 UNLV), Willie Henry(#3 Utah, #3 MSU), 1: AJ Williams (#3 Oregon State), Channing Stribling(#3 UNLV), Blake O'Neill(#3 Maryland), Drake Johnson(#3 Minnesota), Delano Hill(#3 Indiana).
Who's Got It Better Than Us Of The Week
This week's best thing ever.
Jehu Chesson scored a touchdown, so that was cool.
Honorable mention: Michigan was pretty competitive for 30 minutes.
WGIBTUs Past.
Utah: Crazy #buttdown.
Oregon State: #tacopunts.
UNLV: Ty Isaac's 76 yard touchdown.
BYU: De'Veon Smith's illicit teleporter run.
Maryland: Jehu Chesson jet sweeps past you.
Northwestern: Chesson opening KO TD.
MSU: the bit where they won until they didn't.
Minnesota: form a f-ing wall.
Rutgers: Peppers as Denard.
Indiana: Delano Hill seals it with a PBU.
PSU: Jourdan Lewis breaks their back on a kickoff.
MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.
This week's worst thing ever.
The second half.
Honorable mention: The first half.
PREVIOUS EDBs
Utah: circle route pick six.
Oregon State: Rudock fumbles after blitz bust.
UNLV: Rudock matches 2014 INT total in game 3.
BYU: BYU manages to get to triple digit yards in the last minutes of the game.
Maryland: Slog extended by deflected interception at Houma.
Northwestern: KLINSMANN OUT
MSU: Obvious.
Minnesota: The bit where the lost it until they didn't.
Rutgers: KO return given up.
Indiana: run run run run run run run run run run run run.
PSU: OSU's WHAT ARE THOOOOOOSE gameplan against MSU.
OSU: the second half
[After THE JUMP: Rudock exponential improvement path, box numbers, sad things.]
OFFENSE
[Eric Upchurch]
Flipping the Luck switch. After most of a season during which Jake Rudock looked like the worst possible version of himself, he finished on an absolute tear. Overall, Rudock:
- hit 64% his passes and threw for 7.7 YPA with a 17-9 TD-INT ratio,
- finished in a dead heat with CJ Beathard (yep) for third-most efficient QB in the league*, behind only Sudfeld and Cook, and
- piloted S&P+'s #15(!) passing offense.
That would have been unbelievable as late as the kickoff of the Indiana game. What happened? Everyone got better gradually in a new offense and Rudock got locked in once he had some time and space to do things. There are a lot of guys who improved drastically over the course of the season—Braden, Thomas, Williams, Charlton—but nobody more than Rudock.
That only confirms what we already knew about Jim Harbaugh: in addition to being one of the best head coaches around he has a claim to best QB coach in football. I can't wait to see what he does with John O'Korn, who is a lot closer to Christian Hackenberg or Ryan Mallett than Rudock. O'Korn has all the physical talent in the world; he is erratic and, at times, completely bonkers.
He will test Harbaugh's ability to shape anyone into an effective QB, and the upside there is rather good.
*[Part-time starter Cardale Jones excluded.]
[Upchurch]
O'Korn will have some dudes. Jake Butt hasn't given an indication as to his NFL draft intentions yet, and the NFL will be highly interested. But let's pretend he decides to come back for a second here.
O'Korn is now inheriting an established, excellent receiving corps. Chesson's development over the course of the season has taken him from Stonum to Breaston to maybe kind of Manningham; he promises to be a legit #1 receiver if he can maintain his level of performance over the last four games. Darboh provides some spectacular catches and a lot of possession grit; Butt is the best tight end in the country no matter what the Mackey committee says.
Michigan would like to add in a third wide receiver who can do slot things; I have faith that Grant Perry will be a lot better next year once he gets the offense down. There will also be the smattering of Peppers routes, hopefully against linebackers.
They hit that angle screen. De'Veon Smith ripped off a big gain before Michigan's touchdown on that same clever angle screen that almost worked against Michigan State but for a DL batting the ball down. It's a brilliant design on which everything looks like a normal pass play except for the center releasing to block the LB who has the running back in man coverage. Once that block is made, the tailback is sailing all the way to the safety level.
Timing is important: the RB has to be behind the LOS or the OL has to not hit the LB until the pass is complete. Michigan has been making sure the first is the case—or it's at least close enough that the flag doesn't come out.
Yes, Ohio State fans have a point about holding. You know that thing where fans of the opposition complain about the infinite missed holding calls in the aftermath of any game? 99% of the time these are ways to say "I do not understand what holding is." In the specific case of Ohio State fans and Joey Bosa, the bitching is justified. I was braced for flags on three or four different plays; none came.
The refs missed a couple of holding calls on Charlton, too, but I don't have many complaints after this one despite an obvious monster gaffe on the punt. (About that more in a bit.)
And despite that, he produced. Bosa's day according to PFF:
— Joey Bosa (DE, +8.3) was up to his usual tricks as he dominated the game as a pass rusher. Bosa came into the Week 13 matchup with a pass rushing productivity score of 15.8 (second in the nation). Thanks to nine total pressures on 35 pass rushing snaps, he had a score of 20.7 as the Buckeyes moved him around and no one on the Wolverines’ offensive line had an answer for him.
The sack on which Rudock was knocked out of the game came on a play where Michigan added Grant Newsome and moved Cole to right tackle. A one on one matchup with Bosa and an unfamiliar pass drop are a recipe for disaster.
But he was probably going to get his anyway. Michigan's tackles have struggled against top-tier pass rushers all year. Cole's performance in this game won't dissuade anyone (like yrs truly) who thinks he's destined to move to center next year. Michigan obviously thinks a lot of Grant Newsome, and Newsome has the physical attributes that you need to be an elite pass protector. Cole's had a very good year, but it doesn't seem like he's at that level.
[Fuller]
Peppers as general offensive player. Michigan largely used Peppers as just a guy who plays offense. Above he's catching a crossing route on which he got matched up with a linebacker. Michigan also ran him a bunch. He was effective when given the opportunity to be effective; I think his role will expand slightly next year, but he's still critical to the defense.
Run game blah. I don't think anyone expected much here unless Peppers blew up; Michigan got as much as everyone expected. The line has been creating small gaps against poor defensive lines. Against a very good one they created little.
It was especially grating to see De'Veon Smith have to dodge unblocked guys at the line of scrimmage to get four yards when Michigan couldn't or wouldn't deliever similar run blitzes that would force Elliott into guys who had an advantage.
This generation of Michigan offensive linemen will culminate next year, when three of the starters from this year are seniors; Cole will be a junior. They should get better, but I'm not seeing an NFL player amongst them other than Cole.
DEFENSE
[Fuller]
Welp. Steve Sharik compiled some numbers on the way OSU ran in this game that are illuminating:
I'm doing a rudimentary breakdown of run results vs. scheme. Basically comparing what happened defending the run when we played with adequate #s in the box vs. not. Gotten through first half and:
- 13 runs vs. single deep safety, 11.15 ypc, median 6 yards per carry; 6 carries gained less than 5 yards, 3 of those were misreads that would've been significant gains
- 4 runs against goal line D package
- 2 runs vs. 2 safeties at most 10 yards deep, those went for -1 and 2 yards.
2nd half was even worse.
- 18 runs vs. -1 in box, 8.78 ypc, median 9 ypc, only 2 of those runs went for less than 4 yards, and one of those was a misread
- 9 runs vs. even numbers, 3.33 ypc, take out a 13 yard TD run by Barrett where an unblocked Ross whiffed, and it was 8 carries for 18 yards with one carry longer than 3 yards, and that was a 4 yard gain.
Ten OSU opponents did better than Michigan did against OSU's ground game (the exceptions are Indiana and… uh… Virginia Tech). That is not a talent issue, unless you think the rest of the season was a mirage.
If OSU had won this game by hitting the kind of deep passes they did a couple times, I could accept that. Those are low percentage shots and that's life. Michigan just paved them a yellow brick road.
[Upchurch]
That said, woof on the linebackers. I haven't looked at the particulars yet—you will understand why—but the tackling in this game was generally repulsive. I don't know if the twitter legions yapping at Bolden were accurate or just engaging in confirmation bias, but it's clear that nobody was particularly good.
Again, I would caution that when the DL plays badly it often looks like the linebackers are screwing up when they're just trying to mitigate damage. I can't imagine there were a lot of inside zone plays featuring a three-man front with Ross trying to fill in gaps that weren't set up to make the linebackers look like rubes.
On the other hand, when you impact Ezekiel Elliott and get run through like you are a ghost that's bad. I can say that is bad.
But, again, tactics. I will go to my grave swearing that speed is about 15th on my list of traits it's important for a linebacker to have. The instances where they have to run flat out are minimal, and the stuff it buys you are mostly repairing problems when everything else goes wrong. (Lavonte David against Denard Robinson comes to mind.)
So. When Michigan got outflanked on the 66-yarder that started Michigan's long day the constant refrain about slow linebackers popped up. I don't think that is nearly as relevant as the fact that Ohio State motioned a tight end across their formation and Michigan's response was nothing. If they were aligned correctly to start they suddenly weren't, and Desmond Morgan got clubbed inside by a guy with a great angle to do so even if he was the fastest guy in the country. I just about lost my mind in the first half when Vannett would move and Michigan wouldn't move with him.
yeesh [Fuller]
Clark touchdown ceded: just a thing. Clark may have to go apologize to the gypsy after this game, because the touchdown OSU hit on him featured Clark's hand right between Jalin Marshall's arms. 95% of the time that's an incompletion. The ball was right there and Marshall managed to bring it and good for them. I don't hold that against Clark at all.
In general, Clark's first season as a starting CB was highly encouraging. His stature didn't seem to negatively impact his ability to cover very much, and it came in handy frequently. He's still got to adapt to various nuances of the position but as experiments go it was an extremely successful one.
Lewis hit deep. The Lewis deep hit was less contested than Clark's. I thought it was a perfect throw that beats almost any coverage; I also thought Lewis wasn't in the kind of position he usually is. A demerit, probably, but a minor one.
[Upchurch]
2016 safeties: still maybe not terrifying. PFF liked both of the guys who will be around next year. Dymonte Thomas and Delano Hill were 4th and 5th on their list of Michigan players who did well with grades of +1.6 and +1.8 respectively.
I can't say I thought anything was particularly bad on their part, which is nice. Michigan has very little behind them other than a couple second-year players (Tyree Kinnel and a moving Brian Cole) who haven't seen the field. That's the thinnest spot on the roster even considering linebacker.
SPECIAL TEAMS
this is running into the kicker [Fuller]
Going after the punt. That went very badly. It shouldn't have gone that badly, as Michigan only made contact with the punter's kicking leg. That's a five yard penalty. An Ohio State player is the one who blew up the punter, hitting the plant leg. If the refs get that call right it's a small field position hit in exchange for a chance at a big play. I'm okay with that.
Punting on fourth and five from the 36. Given the way the game turned out that was obviously a bad move. At the time it was understandable since Blake O'Neill is good at that stuff and most people anticipated a defensive battle. Jehu Chesson failed to catch the ball on the fly—his only bad play of the day—and Michigan netted 16 yards; the punt was sufficient to get OSU inside the five.
If that had happened in the second half I'd be livid since by that point it's clear your game situation is not one in which field position means much. And even at the time I thought that Michigan was moving the ball pretty well and should have gone for it. It felt like one of those 55/45 decisions so whatever.
In retrospect, of course, it was closer to 90-10 but Harbaugh did not anticipate OSU going through the Michigan defense like Dino Babers escaping the Big Ten.
MISCELLANEOUS
Buckeye ethnography, part N. Submitted: no fanbase in the country is more likely to call their players by their first name. Everyone does this to some extent (see: Denard) but OSU fans seem to do it for everyone.
Not as grating as SEC fans' tendency to sycophantically abbreviate everyone as "Coach Blank Blank"—for example, Mark Richt was until recently "CMR" to the Georgia fanbase—but this tripped my Old Butthurt Sportswriter gene sometime in the second quarter.
Wifi might not be as important as sitting with your friends but it would be nice. I figured this would happen, but I spent the entire game trying and failing to get twitter updates until everyone started leaving. It would be nice if the athletic department actually did something to allow people who really want to have some wifi to have some wifi—I would welcome paying for such a thing, and once you charge people you don't have to support nearly as many of them.
HERE
Worst: The Ghost of Fred Jackson Lingers
I said it above, but without Peppers this team doesn’t crack 40 yards on the ground running the ball, and the non-Rudock runners who got carries in this game are a (possibly) injured De’Veon Smith, a FB, and a guy who’s (again, probably) still recovering from the second ACL surgery of his college career. Guys like Green and Isaac, expected to be contributors at the bare minimum this season, faded so far into the background that it’s hard to even make out their silhouettes. You have to imagine there will be a shakeup in the RB corp, if for no other reason that Harbaugh will be inclined to give anyone new a chance to show they are better than the incumbents. But after sorta-bludgeoning teams to start the year, the rushing offensefell off a cliff, and it hasn’t totally been due to breakdowns in the offensive line. I mean, I know the competition took a step up once the conference slate kicked off, but to go from averaging 4.8 ypc the first six games to 3.25 ypc in the last half, and even that number is goosed by playing IU, is downright stupefying.
Inside The Box Score is pretty grim in lots of ways:
The week leading up to The Game saw Michigan fans unite around the tragedy of a family losing their 5 year old son to DIPG, an inoperable brain cancer. When I saw the picture of Chad's father holding his son's lifeless body, I cried. I am emotional just thinking about it now. When I hear about parents suffering the death of a child, two memories from my childhood return.
When I was in sixth grade, a girl in my gym class collapsed in the parking lot and died. She had a condition that we later started referring to as, "that Hank Gathers thing." It was so sudden. One day, she was pretending to be a horse, running around at recess, and the next day, her parents were dealing with the thought of burying their daughter. We dedicated our yearbook to her, tried to heal, and move on with the knowledge that life is fragile so you should treasure every day, every moment. I didn't know her very well, but even now, 33 years later, I can picture her galloping around the parking lot, full of life and energy.
ELSEWHERE
Best case scenarios, worst case scenarios and something in the middle.
Worst case? Michigan was looking at something similar to last year, or maybe a little better: 5-7, 6-6, the Harbaugh effect setting in, but not so much to offset a lack of talent at a number of spots.
Best case? Well, you have just about close to what happened. If not for a once-in-a-generation-style loss against rival Michigan State, the Wolverines would have been 10-1 heading into the Ohio State game, with their destiny in their own hands in terms of a conference title game berth.
OFFENSIVE CHAMPION – The Jehu Chesson that played against Ohio State was not the same #86 that played against Utah. This guys is night and day different from where he was at the beginning of the season. Jehu is confident, strong and clutch. Not exactly the words I would have used to describe his play in September. To go over 100 yards receiving against the Bucks and to score a touchdown is what we have come to expect from him.
Hoover Street Rag. Baumgardner:
One team's there. The other isn't. At least not yet, anyway.
And that's sort of the point, isn't it?
Michigan pushed itself ahead of schedule during Harbaugh's first season. This is a much tougher team mentally. The program now has an identity. It has a leader who can continue to force a culture and it now has a core group of veterans who know what it really means to work and prepare.
But if Saturday's 42-13 Ohio State drubbing proved anything, it's that Michigan's still rebuilding its football program.
The Citrus Bowl is on the table against LSU. That would probably require the loser of the Big Ten title game getting in a NY6 bowl. That is likely if MSU wins the Big Ten Title game. If Iowa wins bowls might prefer to invite a team that didn't just fail to sell out a game against Penn State to clinch the division. Either way, Florida vs an SEC team with an excellent defense and moribund offense is likely.
November 30th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^
I live in Orlando so obviously I'm stoked about this possibility. The Orlando sports radio guys this morning seemed confident that Florida would be playing in the Citrus Bowl this year, and that assumes a loss in the SEC championship to Bama. I'd much rather match-up against Florida than LSU.
November 30th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
November 30th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^
First, let me add to the statistics:
| 1ST HALF | 2ND HALF | TOTAL | ||||
| SHORT #S? | Y | N | Y | N | Y | N |
| # SNAPS | 13 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 31 | 11 |
| YARDS | 145 | 1 | 158 | 30 | 303 | 31 |
| AVG | 11.15 | 0.5 | 8.78 | 3.33 | 9.77 | 2.82 |
| MED | 6.00 | 0.5 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
The biggest problem I have is Durkin actually had an answer and failed to go to it as 2nd half's Plan A. This isn't HS or even FCS or D2. This is a big-time D1 program with a full allotment of assistant coaches, Graduate Assistants (GAs), Quality Control coaches, and student managers. To either not have the first half data or to choose to ignore it is reprehensible.
Also, I'm put off by those that suggest it was a personnel issue. Yes, OSU has a lot of NFL talent, but some of that is on the defensive side of the ball. Utah has Devonte Booker and we stoned him in the first game, against a top 20 team on the road in a new scheme. MSU has a 1st round left tackle in Jack Conklin and the Spartans earned 58 yards on 33 carries. Hawaii, the #120 S&P defense (#79 against the run), held the Bucks to 182 yards on 39 carries, with Elliott going for 101 on 27 totes (3.74 YPC).
Early in the season, you say? Minnesota (which I'm pretty sure doesn't have better personnel on D than us, and if they do, it's not by much) held the Bucks to 189 yards on 44 carries (4.4 YPC) and Elliott to 114 on 26 (4.4 YPC). That game was played in Columbus, in November (11/7).
Here's some of Michigan's season stats, split out:
| Teams | Carries | Yards | Average |
| IU+OSU | 109 | 676 | 6.20 |
| Other 10 | 301 | 795 | 2.64 |
EDIT: Let me add that I hope everyone takes this only as a criticism of Durkin vs. the spread option offense this season, and particularly in this game. Overall, Durkin is a hell of a coach. I absolutely do not think he's anything less than above average and I don't think for one second he should be fired. Hopefully he stays with us and simply does some research on how to stop the spread.
Also, I think one difficulty may be that you have as a program philosophy that this program is preparation for the NFL, and you only incorporate what NFL teams do. NFL teams do not run defenses that run any form of option b/c they don't see it. Again, how would we defend Georgia Tech or Navy? With NFL schemes? God I hope not.
If the #1 philosophy of this program is The Team, etc. and based on competition, then the coaches should be no different and choose schemes that have the best chance to succeed. Bump man across the board with a 20+ yard deep free safety against spread option isn't such.
November 30th, 2015 at 2:39 PM ^
November 30th, 2015 at 3:17 PM ^
Went back to the 2nd one and reread my last sentence:
I hope that Michigan does something different schematically against the Buckeyes than it did against the Hoosiers. If not, Ezekiel Elliot is going to have a Carlos Hyde type performance.
Sigh.
I didn't turn the game off, but I knew we were done watching the drive to make it 21-10. It was clear we weren't going to do what was required and at that point we'd never catch up b/c we'd never get a stop. We essentially got stops on the first two drives (the 2nd being extended by the roughing call) then none until garbage time. Even worse, we only got them to 3rd and long twice in that span. In fact, almost all of them were 3rd and short (when we managed to stop them on 1st and 2nd downs).
November 30th, 2015 at 3:20 PM ^
We could note as well that on New Year's Day, Durkin's defense at Florida had some issues with ECU, giving up over 500 yards, though it did perform respectably on the scoreboard (20 points). Now, ECU had a high-powered offense and its yardage numbers were in line with its season averages, but given the presumed talent advantage of Florida, you'd think it could have held them in check a little more.
I will say that I do love the press coverage Durkin regularly has us playing. I'd just like to see a little more aggression against the run as well.
November 30th, 2015 at 3:57 PM ^
Much appreciated and really eye-opening for me.
November 30th, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^
and whatever adjustments were seemingly offered were completely ineffective. Even when Michigan managed to force a third down stiuation, their alignment was such that OSU could easily audible and did to an option play that completely outnumbered the defensive formation and allowed the Buckeyes to get into the secondary before anyone laid a finger on Elliot or Samuel or Barrett after he zone read the DE.
Michigan never sent an A gap blitz on first or third down, even though they were getting pummeled up the middle and the outside. A corner blitz in the first half caught Barrett by surprise.
The Buckeyes domination of the trenches just instilled confidence throughout the team. The first TD was all it took. After that, Michigan was on skates and rhythmically schooled on seemingly every play.
The game turned on one play. And that play was fueled by an incredibly weak call that set up the Buckeyes. And it resulted after what seemed like a false start call that was denied apparently by a last second timeout, in which the Buckeye sideline looking at Michigan's defensive alignment communicates the play call too late for Barrett to audible to it, while Elliot is still looking at the sideline as the ball is snapped. This was the first of two such snaps and dead ball stoppages for timeout by OSU, when a penalty indeed seemed certain, that were then transformed into big plays afterward.
November 30th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
I'm not saying the defensive game plan was good or even medicore, but if there was a simple adjustment that could limit the OSU ground game, we would be seeing it from other teams. Last year, OSU rushed for 268 against MSU, 296 against Oregon, 301 against Wisconsin, and 281 against Alabama. Did all those coordinators fail to scheme properly, or is it just really hard to stop a rushing offense with 6-7 NFL players?
That said, to finish 10th in rush defense among OSU opponents is ridiculous and an embarrassment for the coaching staff.
November 30th, 2015 at 2:42 PM ^
November 30th, 2015 at 12:56 PM ^
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November 30th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^
I used to want to know more about the schematics of football so that I could follow along with the lot of you but after reading these comments, I'm sort of glad I'm ignorant. I just have a general malaise toward the game rather than knowing specific things they could have done better, which would burn my ass. I hate having big regrets.
If true about Durkin - and let's be honest, who really knows and we probably shouldn't assume - well, that sucks balls. And if true, wouldn't that put a real crimp in the locker room if, say, he didn't get the job after interviewing for it? Doesn't that say he's a guy who's on the lookout?
November 30th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
We can only speculate about whether or not his involvement with the Maryland (and/or other open jobs) interferred with him focusing on this game.
One thing we can say: it's not a good look to the players or fans.
November 30th, 2015 at 1:40 PM ^
Yes, I don't want to jump to conclusions. I give media reports zero credibility but when asked if the reports were true, he did say he was 100% focused on game preparation. He didn't say the reports weren't true. That's the only thing that stood out to me.
November 30th, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^
Great post as usual. 3-3-5?!?!?!? Really?
November 30th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^
It's pretty clear that we have our first seemingly legitimate beef with the defensive gameplan. All due respect to our HC, but when he's able to focus and speak clearly again I'd like some insight why the DC didn't ditch the 3 man front in the second half beyond "we didn't tackle." Maybe Maryland's brass could bring this up during Durkin's interview today.
November 30th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
His answer was that he doesn't discuss schematics with the press and, consequently, the public.
November 30th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
November 30th, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^
with another Big Ten teams cast off QB and no viable in house alternatives
with no functional running game
with a rickety offensive line
with an unproven receivers group
with a mediocre linebacking corp
with virtually paper thin depth in a number of key places
with a trash can special teams unit the last few years
with an entirely new coaching staff save for one position.
Harbaugh!!!
November 30th, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^
I am pleased with a 9-3 season, especially on the heels of 5 wins last year. But, I am not about to play the roll of the apologist.
Durkin's call to install a completely new defense in one week, with no prior practice, and against the defending national champions was moronic. Hasn't the program learned anything from the hair-brained antics and weekly soup du jour schemes from Al Borges and Jim Herrmann?
In college, you add a couple of wrinkles and perhaps a new package or two for a weekly opponent. But, you do not do not take a complete fork lift to a top 5 defense and do a last minute drop in. The result is slow and confused play, as well as LBs flowing in the wrong direction, and missed tackles.
We do not have the personnel to run an odd front. So, why bother. We have three starting DLs out. In order to run an odd front, you need DLs that can consume multiple blockers - not the two deep guys on your roster that would be 3rd stringer or scrimage guys on the opponents team. You need LBs that are aggressive, instinctively flow, and fill quickly. Our LB play has grown increasingly weary since the MSU game and versus stiffer competition.
Yes, this scheme worked for the first two OSU possessions. But, then they adjusted and started having success. Durkin didn't counter or revert back to the four man front that had brought such great success all season. Doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results is insanity.
Any way you slice it, we got our butts kicked. The last time we got our butts kicked like that in Ann Arbor was in 1998 at the hands of McNabb and Syracuse (38-7). Or perhaps, it was the 51-31 home loss to Florida State in 1991.
In the OSU series, you've got to go back to 1961 to find an arse-kicking in Ann Arbor to this extent. So, this was historically bad. We were embarrassed on National TV again. But, this time it was without Brady Hoke, Dave Brandon, or Rich Rodriguez.
November 30th, 2015 at 1:29 PM ^
November 30th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
The final score of '98 Syracuse was 38-28 - although it was 38-7 at one point.
My first game as a student. Good times.
November 30th, 2015 at 2:01 PM ^
November 30th, 2015 at 2:27 PM ^
after an endzone pick on our last drive, if memory serves. If I were a better man I'd Google. Anyway, your point is still valid-- the Syracuse game was a mismatch from the start. FSU was a shootout we just couldn't keep up with for 4 quarters.
November 30th, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^
November 30th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^
FSU '91 wasn't the massive blow out a lot of people make it out to be. As you mention UM was down about a TD at half, and had two killer int's. First offensive play of the game for UM was a pick 6 for FSU, and then as you mention Grbac threw an Int in FSU's endzone right before the half.
November 30th, 2015 at 11:43 PM ^
In fact, FSU easily could have scored 63, but oddly missed 4 extra points and also threw a pick in the end zone from the 1 yard line.
It felt very similar to this game in terms of the other team doing whatever they wanted to our defense and us being powerless to stop it
November 30th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^
I think we often forget how long and hard the season is for athletes still in their teens and early 20's. We expect them to be machines and on Saturday we might point to the fact that the season started in August with so much energy being expended on the new program. I would expect that under Harbaugh there was more conditioning and work than under Hoke. Finally, we had some tough games away down the stretch that our team fought hard to win. I think rather than criticize talent that our team just ran out of gas. UM has treated every game like a playoff game since MSU and that intensity takes its toll. Neg me all you want, but sometimes the athlete comes up flat, even when they want, with all their heart and soul to play the best game of their lives. It happens.
November 30th, 2015 at 4:12 PM ^
Thats been my read on it as well, the team really looks tired. Another year of adjusting to expectations and learning how to survive the Harbaugh system will help.
November 30th, 2015 at 4:23 PM ^
I'm worried about Peppers going forward...I'm glad he has time to rest up and make some plays in the bowl game. I just hope they're judicious with his usage on offense next year and don't wear him out...
November 30th, 2015 at 7:49 PM ^
Peppers has said he's not even tired during games because practice is so much harder and faster. Hell every time he goes down on a play he kips up onto his feet, or does the worm, or does a 1-handed handstand, he's the player I'd least be worried about being tired.
November 30th, 2015 at 1:43 PM ^
So now that we have a years worth of data to compare to, I was wondering if you could do an article comparing the offense this year, especially the OL and RB, to USC last year? I'd be very interested in your take on this, comparing talent to talent, improvement over the year, experience, etc. The common denominator here is Drevno, and it would be fascinating to compare his job there with the job he did at Michigan this year.
I understand this would probably take awhile and I'm new to commenting here, so I apologize if this isn't the best way to ask, but I hope this is something you can pull off.
Thank you
November 30th, 2015 at 1:45 PM ^
November 30th, 2015 at 1:56 PM ^
I don't think it's fully implemented yet. I don't think Durkin has a 2-high defense with zone/match up coverage that he is confident he can run regularly and have success.
I think they spent much of the off season getting in their base D (Man Free), their coverage D (Man under) and their blitz D (Man Free of 3-high look), and never really got to a pure 2-high zone based look. They made a lot of improvement on the back end with communication in their man free and against bunch sets and all that, but there is only so much you can implement and run effectively in one off season.
I'm really hoping Michigan takes some time in bowl practice and starts implementing more of a two-high look, a look I don't think they really have (in terms of being able to confidently call it on the regular) or else it would have been brought out against Indiana and OSU, run some zone, gotten some extra guys in the box, and worked it that way.
Here's to hoping anyway.
November 30th, 2015 at 2:24 PM ^
I get what you're saying, and I agree, two-high wouldn't have been in Michigan's comfort zone. However, two things:
- Michigan did run some two-high safeties at less than 10 yards from the LOS. I charted 11 snaps of this against run plays, with great success except for one play.
- Michigan installed a new scheme for Plan A this week--the 3-3-5. If it's willing to do that, why not have Plan A be the 2-high zone with safeties close?
November 30th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
1. But not consistently. I have a feeling they have it implemented to some degree, but not enough for it to be their base. I'd have to watch some tape to see, but that's my feeling based on what I've seen this year. They can throw it out there a bit at times to change up the look, but they aren't comfortable with running it regularly.
2. The 3-3-5 was not new for this game. Michigan has run it pretty on and off all year as a change up to their 4 man front (it's just that in this game, the Buck was Ross and he was playing off). They ran it more in this game, likely in an effort to stay in their base coverage but bring down more bodies to get to the point of attack. It wasn't an effective change, but it was not a new scheme for them.
November 30th, 2015 at 3:29 PM ^
November 30th, 2015 at 2:14 PM ^
So, as it stands we have:
A DC who either can't seem to gameplan effectively for the most important game of the year or was too distracted by the Maryland situation to put in full effort. A DC who was in charge of the worst defensive unit on the field all season. Seems like we shouldn't be too upset if he goes. But if he stays, what the hell can be done about it?
Also, we have an OC/OLine coach who presided over a run game that was actually worse than last year. We fired the guys in charge of that, so what does that leave us in the present situation? Not much, it seems.
Personnel-wise, impactful RBs/LBs/OL will not be falling from the sky (especially LBs), so it's more of the same next year. With our toughest games on the road. And our coaching at the coordinator level seems to leave a great deal to be desired.
Welcome to it, folks. 8-4 looks to be the ceiling next year, as that's assuming O'Korn approaches Rudock levels.
Maybe things will turn in a few years, but there's more waiting ahead.
November 30th, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^
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November 30th, 2015 at 5:35 PM ^
I'm not happy about the defensive coaching in this game either, but have some perspective. No matter how important one game is, it doesn't undo the whole season. 3 shutouts!
November 30th, 2015 at 2:27 PM ^
That is legitimately one of the coolest sports photos I've ever seen.
Catching him mid-air, being at the right angle to get him head on... One in a million shot right there. Love it.
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November 30th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
That game sucked, no way around it. But the team is already ahead of where reasonable expectations were, and shows the kind of upward trend we never saw under Hoke. Are we at OSU's level right this second? No. Will we be in the next couple years, once Harbaugh gets a couple elite classes and the current guys get more time in the submarine? Abso-fucking-lutely. Now lets go kick some SEC ass on New Year's and get that 10th win.
November 30th, 2015 at 4:18 PM ^
Couldn't have said it better myself. Harbaugh will have them ready to kick major ass in the bowl game.
November 30th, 2015 at 2:42 PM ^
The biggest dissapointment from saturday was the game plan. If we lost because they had 400 yards passing I deal with it. To have a high safety in that game was criminal and dissapointing. Durkin might be a good coach but that was a bad game plan, especially given the blueprint provided by msu the week before.
It invovled a lot of hubris, they decided they ran their style and it could beat anyone, they got outschemed and as a result embarrased.
November 30th, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
I thought Michigan would finish 8-4 this year. At best.
9-3 is a great outcome for year 1. I thought Harbaugh and staff did a nice job developing the talent on the roster, putting a competent team out there every Saturday with a gameplan that made sense.
"Quality" losses: at Utah (9-3), Michigan State (11-1) and Ohio State (11-1)
"Quality" wins were admittedly thin however: BYU (9-3), Northwestern (10-2), Indiana (6-6), Penn State (7-5).
November 30th, 2015 at 3:48 PM ^
I just can't get over the fact that Baxter, the supposed savior of Special Teams, has really added...what? Okay, so we have a better punt formation, and Blake O'Neill seems to be able to do what he does naturally. Maybe Kenny Allen was better because of Baxter? And we returned one kickoff. Other than that, we have had punts blocked, have had multiple penalties for hitting kickers and never once looked like a team that used special teams to dominate games. To me, this was the most disappointing unit based on preseason hype this year.
December 1st, 2015 at 9:35 AM ^
delete
November 30th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^
You specifically call out Michigan holding, but the refs were missing it both ways. This is one of the few games this season that I thought the reffing wasn't favored against us, so at least we had that going for us, but it felt like the refs were just holding in the flags for this game. I saw Harbaugh and staff giving the holding signal on the sidelines every other play too.
Can't complain about it much because it was clearly missed on both sides of the field. I'm glad they were at least consistent this week.
November 30th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^
I think its weird to say - but I swear that punt block decision really was the turning point in the game.
Michigan didn't need to go after it. They didn't need to risk blocking the punt, they would likely get good field position and maybe even a great return from the ever-dangerous Peppers (although I'm pretty sure the punt sailed out of bounds at around the 50). Was that a decision by Harbaugh or special teams? Or was that M players being overly aggressive?
The three plays before that were the best the D played all day. They stopped the Buckeyes on two consecutive plays for basically no gain. Getting off the field with a 3-and-out was huge, even if it was early in the game.
Two plays later, Elliott broke a huge run that wound up deep in M territory. It's hard to believe it was late in the 1st quarter and was still 0-0 at that point.
I think that gave Meyer and the coaching staff another chance to let them see the defense. They noticed the holes in the D and exploited them the rest of the way.
That call was garbage though - for a second I thought that they had done away with the "running-into-the-kicker" rule or something.
November 30th, 2015 at 8:13 PM ^
I'm so sick of losing to osu and MSU. The MSU game especially stings. I can see shitting the bed against osu...but the way we lost to MSU...leading the whole game...couldn't get a first down to run out the clock, punt gets blocked AND returned for a TD with :00 on the clock. Having to watch mark dick-head-Dantonio with his smug fucking nose in the air running off the field saying "where are all the Wolverines now??" Ugh. One more year.
Maybe next year we can run the GD football for a change. Intimidate people. Hope our coaches are developing players because 2017 is going to feel like starting all over again when all next years senior graduate.
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