Getting There
[Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]
For weeks now, I've had half-baked column-type things on Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Aubrey Dawkins saved on my laptop, begging for an easy narrative the subjects couldn't provide. This is MAAR's offense now? Well, he just went 1/7 with four turnovers at Indiana. Dawkins provides a steady shooting presence? It's too bad he just shot 1/8.
This shouldn't be a surprise. Michigan's two late recruiting pickups for 2014 weren't supposed to have significant, let alone starting, roles on this team. As recently as December, when Michigan hosted Syracuse, both registered DNP-CDs. That all changed with the injuries to Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton, of course. Instead of easing them into the college game, John Beilein had little choice but to throw them in headfirst and hope they could tread water.
MAAR and Dawkins combined for just seven points on 3/12 shooting against Ohio State; Sunday's game nevertheless displayed their progress.
Abdur-Rahkman drew the unenviable assignment of guarding future top-five pick D'Angelo Russell for much of the game, and he did better than anyone could expect of a freshman defending one of the top scorers in the country. Russell had a hard time freeing himself as Michigan jumped out to a big first-half lead, going just 1/4 in the first stanza; he'd finish with 16 points, but needed 17 shot equivalents to get there, and he turned it over five times.
Time and again, MAAR fought his way over and around screens to stay in Russell's hip pocket, forcing a series of difficult shots. He knew where to be—no small feat for a freshman on defense—and he seemed acutely aware that he'd have to expend most of his energy on that end of the floor. Then, at the end of a rough day on offense, he came through with one of the biggest assists of the game, finding Zak Irvin on a drive-and-kick for a corner three that gave M a six-point lead with six to play. It was the type of play we'd hoped to see from MAAR for weeks.
Dawkins, too, came through late after struggling for much of the day. Shortly after MAAR's critical assist, Dawkins got past Marc Loving and tried a short pull-up from just outside the paint. Although the initial shot went off the mark, Dawkins corralled the rebound after a tip, then pivoted past Jay'Sean Tate to scoop in the putback (above, Fuller). I don't think it's a play he makes in December, when Michigan's freshmen had to think their way through all 40 minutes.
They're still developing, of course. Dawkins made an ill-advised foray to the basket early in the shot clock with Michigan clinging to that late six-point lead; while the Buckeyes blocked the shot, Max Bielfeldt bailed out his teammate with a tough rebound. MAAR got himself trapped next to the Buckeye bench and had to sweat through a lengthy replay in the final minute. Overthinking (or underthinking) is still an issue.
Especially when one notes Kam Chatman's unexpected six-point run in the first half, though, it's hard not to be encouraged by the progress of Michigan's freshmen after Sunday regardless of what showed up on the box score. MAAR is hitting 55% of his twos in Big Ten play while developing an outside shot and building confidence on defense. Dawkins has that tantalizing athleticism and truly impressive shooting numbers—he's fourth in the conference in true shooting percentage.
Michigan doesn't have a superstar like Russell in the freshman class, but it's becoming easier and easier to see what John Beilein envisioned when he recruited these guys. It's still hard to come up with a smooth game-to-game narrative to attach to them. That's kind of the point, though—freshmen are unpredictable. Instead of waiting for them to string together enough similar performances to declare they're here, sometimes it's best to note the highs and the lows and realize they're getting there, and that's just fine.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
February 24th, 2015 at 1:26 PM ^
I think MAAR and Dawkins are not big concerns for leaving early for the NBA. I know JB does amazing things, but remember these guys were after thoughts in terms of recruiting. Even if JB does his typical amazing developmental job on these guys, its still going to be a while for them to reach that level. 4 years seems like a safe bet
February 24th, 2015 at 1:32 PM ^
Whether Dawkins will learn how to get the ball in the net on those insane put backs he tries to do... Seriously kid jumps out from nowhere and unfortunately the ball just clangs off the rim 20 feet. I feel like that has happend 3 games in a row now.
February 24th, 2015 at 4:28 PM ^
February 24th, 2015 at 1:49 PM ^
He has been much more than expected, much sooner than expected. I would not be surprised to see him make a big leap next year after he has an offseason to develop more and process the season.
I can eaily see him leaving early, if he continues to grow like he has. I would say anything past Jr year would be a plus.
February 24th, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^
the difference between MAAR and LeVert is that Caris started here as a young-for-his class freshman, versus MAAR as an old-for-his-class freshman. I just checked their DOBs - Caris is literally 7 days older than MAAR (CL 8/25/94; MAAR 9/1/94). Some of Caris's continued development was simply growing up/into his body and still learning about what he was capable of. Rahk might still have a lot to learn and skill he can develop, but it's less likely he's got as much upside as LeVert did as a freshman.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
It can be hard for fans to see the "vision" that someone with as much expertise and experience as Beilein has, but we have to trust that JB is not just throwing darts at recruits and hoping they'll turn out. He has a plan, and he executes it.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^
gap between the "fresh five" and these freshmen, this team is missing both guys who really have the ability to make those around them better with Caris and Derrick. This is a different kind of development and once again shows the coaching prowess of John Beilein.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:16 PM ^
Now - back to reading the post...
February 24th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
"it's becoming easier and easier to see what John Beilein envisioned when he recruited these guys"
man, oh man, how many times have we said essentially that same thing since bill martin hired this guy?
February 24th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
Unlike in football, where knee-jerk analysis has an opportunity to solidify, basketball narratives can come and go over multiple games. The correct ones take time to reveal themselves.
To MAAR and Dawkins, I would also add Irvin to the 'getting there' category. You're seeing their games evolve over the course of the season. Their improvement is evident every game...or at least every few. It's different than beating teams by 20 points, but it's both enjoyable and satisfying in it's own way.
As for the rest of the team:
Spike and Max are simply stepping up - playing beyond their physical limitations again and again, out of necessity and will. That's a different kind of improvement. So it is for the others as well. Doyle, Kam, and Doonal are getting better too, but the changes there are less obvious to see. They're the guys we'll expect to improve over the offseason.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^
They're making progress. Without Caris and Walton we're missing only about 28ppg. These guys weren't supposed to be cornerstones on a B1G team, but play about 10 minutes per game. As it is, they (and Spike!) are playing more like 35, because Michigan doesn't have any other guys to play.
Let's see what Camp Sanderson can do... I think that we're seeing what will be a very good team next year.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:32 PM ^
it might be too late for this year, but I am still of the school that you play one game at a time until your season is over. In other words, though the odds against them are huge, I won't count them out of the Big Ten Tournament until they actually are out of the tournament.
I would be happy with a good showing and an NIT berth at this point, but anything can happen in basketball.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
that replay-play in front of the OSU bench - how was that possibly our ball? The refs did not make a call to begin with(!), huddled for like 20 minutes watching video that unquestionably established that it was super-duper-OSU-ball and then gave us the ball without any protest at all from Matta. Harlan and Raftery were like, Um.......OK?
I was so confused by that sequence of events.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9419050/expansion…
Under the replay change, officials can use video review to confirm a shot-clock violation or determine who caused the ball to go out of bounds on a deflection involving two or more players in the final two minutes of regulation or overtime.
I think the refs wanted to look at who touched it last, saw that RAHK had stepped out and needed a 45 minute conversation to decide whether they were allowed to make it right.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:45 PM ^
a question of subject matter juristiction it turns out. That makes sense(sort of).
February 24th, 2015 at 4:00 PM ^
February 24th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^
How did a kid with Dawkins' athletic ability who can clearly shoot the ball go so under the radar?
February 24th, 2015 at 1:43 PM ^
last name to his list of attributes, and then expand the inquiry to include two other gentlemen by the names of Hardaway and Robinson and you have yourself three good questions. I don't know how we keep getting these family legacy players and why nobody else seems to want them.
February 24th, 2015 at 2:32 PM ^
GR3 and THJ were essentially late bloomers who Beilein recognized and valued before anybody else.
Dawkins meanwhile is old and was offered late. Beilein preferred a lot of people to Aubrey but when options A through J passed he scooped him up. A little like the Trey Burke situation. A bit of luck is nice.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:39 PM ^
I am very happy watching both of these freshman progress. They will be the glue that runs through the team for the next 3 years similar to what Spike has been. A coach loves having guys like that on the team because they truly can push everyone else in practice and provide valuable minutes on the floor during games. If the elite talent comes back, and comes in, over the next few years this will be a very good team thanks to those two.
The real question is if this staff can get Chatman going in the off season. I feel bad for him because he is just lost right now as well as nursing an injury, if I remember correctly.
Also, Ace, can we get a gif of the missed dunk Dawkins had late in the game. He Got Up! on that one. Had he been able to finish that one, Crisler would have imploded.
February 24th, 2015 at 1:43 PM ^
I still do not understand why we struggle with recruiting. I appreciate what the squad has done and they are fighters without a doubt, but where are the big names? It seems like we either develop lower level guys, or get big time recruits that have lost a little shine during the process (McGary). Is it that we are perceived as a football school? Is it that we don't often take the one and done types? Are the bag men so strong in college basketball, that you can't recruit without one?
Seems to me like we develop players as well as any program in the country. I would think that big time recruits would want to come for a year or two and polish their game here. Is a guy who goes to Kentucky, really going to make as big a leap in their prowess and knowledge as a recruit who comes to Michigan? Beyond that, Michigan has had recent success in the tournament. So if winning is your deciding factor, you get that at Michigan as well.
I am not trying to be cheeky. I am serious, I must be missing something here, because our basketball recruiting leaves me puzzled.
February 24th, 2015 at 2:01 PM ^
This is only a partial answer, but I think there is some truth to it. I had a good pal who was an assistant coach for a semi-elite AAU team. He said that what most people think about the AAU is incorrect--that it is riven with corruption. He said that 99% of the kids are not being paid by anyone.
But then he went on to say that the top 1% is unimaginably corrupt. Like, literally (and here I do literally mean "literally") duffel-bags-full-of-cash-left-on-relatives'-front-porches corrupt.
So then it seems like there are three kinds of elite or semi-elite programs:
- Elite programs that are very probably dirty as hell;
- Elite programs that don't have to be dirty because of their history; and
- Not-quite-elite programs that do not have the advantages of (1) or (2) but are getting close to elite because of their coaching.
I think UConn under Jim Calhoun and UMass and Memphis under Calipari are good examples of (1), KU and UK are probably on the border of (1) and (2); Duke and UNC are probably clear examples of (2), Michigan State and Gonzaga are probably on the border of (2) and (3), and programs like Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, maybe VCU, Wichita State, Butler under Brad Stevens, etc. are pretty clear examples of (3).
The problem is that most of the elite players go to (1) and (2) schools, making U-M's recruiting not look obviously stellar (McGary excepted). Let's hope that Jaylen Brown, Tyus Battle, Cassius Winston, Derryck Thornton, Jr., etc. flip that script.
February 24th, 2015 at 2:01 PM ^
Maybe development is less important to the top players considering they believe they are NBA ready and just need a place to play for a year? Beilein has yet to have a player go pro after their first year, and hasn't produced an NBA star yet either. Add in the dirtiness of basketball recruiting, the potential NIke/Adidas issue and the long history of success of Kentucky and Duke basketball who we seem to be going up against a lot for recruits and you have a recipe for a lot of recruiting struggles. I like that Beilein and co shoot for the stars recruitingwise, but they might be better served targeting the players in the 40-70 range instead of the top 40.
February 24th, 2015 at 2:04 PM ^
There are many reasons that basketball recruiting is very different than football recruiting.
- There are 350+ Division 1 basketball teams to choose from vs 120+ D1 football teams. This means the talent can go to a lot of options that are closer to home and still compete at the highest level.
- There are 30+ games played every year with show case tournaments at the begining and the end of the seasons. This means exposure is much easier to get in basketball than football even if you go to a smaller school.
- Most importantly - if you think football recruiting is dirty, don't even look at basketball recruiting. Each year a coach is going after a handful of players. That means the stakes are even higher for the top talent. Throw in the shoe brands, the AAU coaches, family members, bag men and a coach trying to run a clean program really starts from behind in the process for landing the top recruits. Look no further than the interview recently posted with Jaylen Brown where the interviewer specifically asks if Michigan being an Adidas school will have an impact on his recuirtment.
- Regarding Beilein, he has brought in good talent (Morris, McGary, Robinson, Chatman, Stauskas, Donnal, Walton Jr.). He gets more recognition for what he has done with Hardaway Jr, Burke, LeVert, Spike, Morgan but that does not mean he has not also brought in good talent. That said, he also looks for specific types of players. His #1 evaluation is how the recruit will fit in with the team. That is why no schollies go out until they have come to campus and taken part in an open gym session. Beilein highly values team dynamic. That means many of the top end guys probably won't pan out because, typically (not always), their personalities won't mesh well with what already exists. A guy like McGary is the exception.
February 24th, 2015 at 2:01 PM ^
Never mind
February 24th, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^
I'm truly excited about the potential that Doyle has. He seems to be a high enregy guy like Mitch was. He may be missing a few of the tools Mitch had and doesnt have as high of a ceiling, but I think he will turn out to far exceed expectations. Given some more time and development I like how we should be setup in the post in near future.
February 24th, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^
February 24th, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
I enjoyed reading this. That is all.
February 24th, 2015 at 4:26 PM ^
Great post Ace. Thank you as always for your thorough work. Would you mind giving us an update on your health? My family and I have been remembering you in our prayers for months and it has been a while since I've seen anything. Obviously, I hope, as all MGoUsers do, that you are feeling better and better each day!!! And if there has been some recent update that I've missed, I apologize to Ace and the Board for wasting everyone's time!
February 24th, 2015 at 7:18 PM ^
patience. Recall at the beginning of the seaon JB pleaded for people to have some and let these kids. His vision was clear from the outset that these frosh needed some time to develp and pay dividends. And Sunday provided evidence of this as well as his coaching prowess.
February 25th, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
I think this year although I wish the record was better, has been very exciting basketball. Although the kids struggle at some points, its still been a really fun year to watch games. These kids play hard for the most part and when Dakich or the other bench warmers get in I find that I'm really too overly excited for it. Anyway what I meant to say was GO BLUE and HARBAUGH.
February 25th, 2015 at 2:46 PM ^
Ace - that is meant as a compliment to you. Nice work.
February 26th, 2015 at 12:57 AM ^
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