Getting Right With History Comment Count

Brian

11/30/2014 – Michigan 28, OSU 42 – 5-7, 3-5 Big Ten

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[Eric Upchurch]

In one of last year's season preview posts I wondered if Michigan was going to end up on the wrong side of the war after Hoke's hire. I got piles of crap for this take from people waving Stanford anecdotes around. I think a lot of people read "pro style can't work" when what I'm saying is "it's clearly less likely to." I'm not going to turn my nose up at Jim Harbaugh no matter what he wants to run. Wing-T? Yes, sir.

Anyway: the crux of that argument was that if you think running a spread makes your defense soft when you have to play Wisconsin, the corollary to that is that if you're not preparing for spread elements daily you will struggle when you go up against them. For the most part this held true during the Hoke era (if I say "tempo" you will dive under a couch), and never more so than against OSU.

Statistically, Michigan has had a defense somewhere between good and terrific under Greg Mattison. Ohio State looks at that and says naw:

  • 2011: 34 points, 376 yards, about two feet from another 70 yards and game-winning points.
  • 2012: 26 points, 396 yards. A decent performance, year one of Meyer.
  • 2013: 42 points, 526 yards. An obliteration.
  • 2014: 42 points, 416 yards. Seven of those points are via a defensive TD.

These were all slow games featuring a lot of running and a lot of Michigan dawdling. This year's version of The Game had just nine OSU possessions, which is the practical minimum. Anything played at a Pac 12 pace would have been ugly.

Michigan had a vaguely acceptable performance once in four years, and two of those games featured freshman OSU quarterbacks who weren't even supposed to be the starter preseason. Hell, this game featured an eighty yard drive led by the third string QB.

The whole "Big Boy Football" thing is all the more galling since OSU has consistently ground Michigan into paste without bothering to throw the ball much. OSU QBs have thrown an average of 20.5 passes against Michigan in the Hoke era, and I'd guess about a half of those were screens and easy stuff in the flat. With most of the rest downfield bombs, OSU's offense avoids turnovers while simultaneously being lethally efficient. If the spread does get your QBs hurt more often—something that's been hard to confirm with numbers—that's not something that has affected Ohio State. Cardale Jones came in and sealed the game.

OSU is running twice as much as they're passing against Michigan and averaging 6.1 yards a carry. These are Rodriguez-at-WVU type stats, the kind that blew me away when I was looking at his track record after his hire.

The funny thing about the Danielsons of the world is that they're old school RUN THE DANG BALL types, but they manage to sidestep the fact that forcing the defense to account for a running quarterback is the best way to run the ball. I can think of no better way to make this point than a chart from back in 2008 that compared Michigan's YPC in year one of Rodriguez to the previous seven years of Lloyd Carr:

# Year YPC
1 2006 4.27
2 2003 4.25
3 2007 3.97
4 2008 3.91
5 2005 3.89
6 2004 3.83
7 2002 3.82
8 2001 3.59

Threet and Sheridan and no linemen and they still ended up above average. Michigan would easily top 2006 from 2009 to 2012. Lloyd Carr could talk about running the ball. His teams couldn't do it, at least not well.

I want to run the ball. I want to run an offense that doesn't ask the QB to make complicated reads, but rather asks him to make a decision about one guy. Hoke was a mistake for a thousand reasons, but prime amongst them was his "we're gonna run power" crap after he'd never been able to do that anywhere else.

Michigan spent the 2011 game running the inverted veer wrong and they still put up 40; that this had no impact on his approach speaks volumes about Hoke's lack of quality as a coach. Bo made the shift to a modern passing offense when he had to. Saban is grudgingly moving in that direction: I was watching the Iron Bowl on Saturday and Herbstreit made multiple references to how Alabama was now a no-huddle team. They found themselves down multiple scores in the second half and ripped off five straight TDs in short order.

The game moves; move with it or die. Michigan chose hidebound traditionalism on the field and whiz-bang idiot modernism in the pageantry. The former is a natural reaction after you get burned. The latter is a natural consequence of hiring a pizza marketer.

But can we learn? I would like to learn. Rich Rodriguez blew it here, and he learned. He dumped his defensive staff, got Jeff Casteel back, and is headed to the Pac-12 championship game with a freshman QB after having beaten Oregon in back-to-back years. This is our opportunity to do something right this time.

Unfortunately, Michigan's current coaching staff is going on recruiting visits today when they should be taking a day with a bottle of scotch before polishing up the old resume. I have no idea what they're supposed to say on these visits.

RECRUIT: Aren't you guys getting fired?
COACH: Almost certainly.
RECRUIT: So why are you here?
COACH: I'm like a corpse still twitching. Held in this hellish no-place, I pine for my soul's release and reincarnation as the offensive coordinator at a D-II school.
RECRUIT: Whoah.
COACH: You said it.

Florida knows what's going on; Tulsa knows what's going on; Illinois knows what's going on. Michigan doesn't. Comparisons to Nebraska are invalid. Michigan's not 9-3, and no one is going to be blindsided by Hoke getting axed.

Poke the Russia Today outlet in the Michigan e-sphere and you'll hear that it's about Doing Right By The Staff and that it's about Keeping The Pressure Off Harbaugh; neither of these explanations make any sense. That coach doesn't want to be on that visit. He wants to be looking for another job. Harbaugh speculation does not start with, or even focus on, Michigan in NFL circles.

I can't see a reason to drag it out, but here we are, dragging it out. The guy in charge may be competent but he has no track record. We're stuck here hoping this guy is actually qualified and that things turn out for the best. Maybe it will. Forgive me if I have a tendency to look on everything this department does as a mistake.

That's' going to be a tough habit to break, but here's a suggestion: act like a collection of people instead of a committee for once and acknowledge that there's no good way for this to go down. The first major Brandon warning sign was when he infamously took two days of meetings to fire Rich Rodriguez when that was a fait accompli.

Get on with it, motherfu

[After THE JUMP: offensive line ups and downs, clock lol, etc.]

BULLETS

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BEHIND YOU [Upchurch]

The edges cave in. Michigan had not seen an elite edge rusher all year unless Anthony Zettel or Shilique Calhoun counts. They might; even if they are they are not in Joey Bosa's class. I can tell this because Bosa and his compatriots crushed the Michigan pocket with a consistency Michigan had not seen in a long time. Gardner was sacked five times after getting through much of November without taking a hit. He coped surprising well given what we'd seen from him; it was still a major problem.

This wasn't much of a surprise with Michigan fielding a true freshman LT and a shaky sophomore RT. It was more a reminder that Michigan had just about gotten away with it this year. Sacks allowed are not great—26, which is 75th nationally—but they are much much better than last year. With an offseason to improve in they could get to good.

Especially since…

The running game functioned. Without those sacks Michigan averaged 4.8 yards a carry. In a sack-adjusted world that's just okay, but "just" and "okay" should not go next to each other when we are talking about a game against Ohio State in which Michigan's interior offensive line pretty much won the battle against the OSU DL.

Remember that De'Veon Smith carry on which he got lit up in the backfield? That's approximately the only time that happened.

It's kind of hard to take Michigan's rushing stats seriously this year since they feature almost ten yards a carry against Appalachian State and another big hunk at 6.1 against Miami (NTM). That's the kind of thing a lot of teams get, yes, but they don't surround that with four games in which you don't break 3 YPC.

Are we confident then? Maybe not confident confident. Still, the end of the year saw four straight reasonable-to-good performances in the run game and the pass protection was improved. Michigan gets back every OL on the roster, and they've got some experienced depth in Erik Magnuson. If they make equal progress next year they could be good-ish.

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Torn ACL, same knee. [Upchurch]

Drake? I'll say this about Drake Johnson: I don't yell "THE HOLE IS OVER THERRRRRRRE" when he's in the game. I didn't think that was going to be a big deal this year; it was. Johnson still has moments where his cuts cause him to come to a dead stop, but he ran through a couple tackles in this game, has good straight-line speed, and seems to understand the blocking in front of him more than his compatriots.

It'll be hard to hold off a returning Derrick Green and the newly-available Ty Isaac, especially since he'll be missing spring practice after tearing his ACL on that touchdown.

It'll be interesting to see who the new staff goes with. He's in the conversation.

Oh come on, part XXXVIII. The clock management at the end of the first half was dubious for everyone. Ohio State let the clock roll as Michigan prepared to punt from their 45 with about three minutes left in the half. Michigan then punted with 15 or 16 seconds left on the playclock. That is idiotic. It's also something Hoke seems to do before the half in every game.

The ensuing drive saw OSU tie the game on a ten-play, 83-yard march, with the last play snapped with 17 seconds left on the clock. OSU had two timeouts, but with a series of incomplete passes and first-down runs the amount of time they would have saved with them was negligible; anyway the point is that it is dumb to give the opposition 15 free seconds for a two minute drill and that this dumbness is endemic to the program now. Remember the free Hail Mary Michigan gave to Penn State? Yeah.

Defense. I don't really have much to say other than it was yet another clobbering—5 TDs on 9 drives is a clobbering—in which Michigan just could not cope with the multiple exposures to one-on-one tackling that Meyer's offense exposes you to. Not many have. The key to stopping offenses like this is having a defensive line that kicks the opposing OL's ass, as Penn State did and Stanford occasionally has against Oregon. That wasn't happening without Frank Clark, and probably wasn't happening even with him.

It was disappointing that Raymon Taylor got beat on two big plays, one the 52 yard bomb to Devin Smith, the other an opportunity to boot OSU off the field on their end-of-half drive.

HERE

Best And Worst:


Best:  Why Can't They Make the Whole Season Out of OSU's Defense?

To paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld, if Michigan is only capable of playing this way offensively when they line up against OSU, they might as well just schedule the Buckeyes 12 times.  Devin Gardner did throw the interception, and it was his fumble on a sack that OSU returned for a defensive TD following Elliott's TD run, but he also threw the ball as well as he has in weeks, completing over 2/3's of his passes for 233 yards and 2 TDs, and spread out the receptions to 9 different players, 10 if you include the throwback pass he caught from Drake Johnson on a pretty brilliant playcall that helped Michigan tie the game at 21 in the 3rd.  It wasn't anywhere close to his record-breaking performance from last year, but Gardner acquitted himself well enough in his final game as a Wolverine, and it was a bit poetic that his last completion of his career was a great little throw and catch to Canteen for Michigan's last TD.  Of course, the fact it was in a game Michigan wound up losing by 14 takes a bit of luster off the rose, but this is the "happy thoughts" part of this diary.

Inside The Box Score:

When I was a kid, I heard that Bo and Woody preferred to run the ball because when you pass the ball, three things can happen and two of them are bad. The Michigan offense of the past two years has redefined that calculus. I now believe that when you pass the ball, six things can happen and five of them are bad. Of course, you have the original two bad items, the incompletion and the interception. I've seen enough of Michigan's offense to realize that we have to add these additional bad outcomes: 1) throwing screen passes for negative yardage, 2) getting sacked, and 3) getting strip-sacked.

     In case there was any doubt, Michigan drove the point home to start the game. On our first play, Drake Johnson ran for 7 yards. On the next play, Devin Gardner threw an interception. On the next drive, Michigan threw a screen pass for -5 yards, ran the ball for 15 yards, took a sack, ran for 4, and took another sack. Three good running plays and four bad passing plays. The second drive ended with yet another poor special teams play, as Jalin Marshall returned a punt 23 yards.

ELSEWHERE

HSR on where they are:

I almost have begun to wonder in the past decade whether Michigan's interest in the rivalry is, in knowing how much it means to them, being able to beat them and ruin that for them, is what Michigan fans truly get out of this.  Michigan fans don't care less about the rivalry than Ohio State fans do, they just care about it differently.  Michigan fans like winning, period.  Michigan fans want to beat everybody and dread that there will be somewhere along the way in a season where Michigan doesn't win.  Michigan's season is not going to be made by beating Ohio in a way that Ohio's might be.  But it makes me sad to know that there has not been one game since 1999 where Michigan went in to The Game and thought "we should win this." *  Ohio State fans have thought this all too often since the Tressel era began.  If I have a sadness about this rivalry, it is that.

(*-If you want to argue 2011 with me, I'll listen, but even then, the best chance Michigan had to get a win since 2003 (when it was #4 vs #5, which is not a "should"), did not feel like a "should win", but like a "please dear God, let us win."  It's not the same.  And 2004, #7 in the country vs. a 6-5 Buckeye team, still had to go to Columbus.)

The Devin Gardner era ended yesterday not with a whimper, but not with a bang.  It ended with more conclusive proof about the kind of person that Devin Gardner is (see photo above), but also the maddening flaws about what kind of quarterback Devin Gardner, turnover prone, but flashing brilliance here there and everywhere.  There seems to be a desire to make a metaphor of this game as a microcosm of the Hoke era, and perhaps it is.  Unfortunately, like so many times in the Hoke era, we're left with more questions than answers.  If Hoke's era is coming to a close, then the book will be left to be written, but we've written so much of it.  In so many ways, we've known for months what is going to happen, but we're waiting for the actual moment, so we can move on and move forward.

Baumgardner column. Sap's Decals:

HELMET COLOR – After dealing with all the crap this season, I finally had enough of seeing the wrong shade of yellow on the M helmets!  It was painfully obvious to me that it was not right the correct color and it’s time we got it right!

Maybe it was the culmination of everything that we had to deal with this year, including the all blue unis, but for some reason the color of the yellow on the Michigan helmets was painfully out of synch with the rest of the uniform.   The shade of yellow/maize didn’t match the pants. It didn’t match the yellow trim on the jersey.  Heck, it didn’t even match the yellow shoes worn by some of the Wolverines. Time for Riddell to get it right! If they can’t get it right, then they need someone to help get it right. Consider myself volunteered!

Daily on Gardner.

Comments

mGrowOld

December 1st, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^

Me too.

Look at what's happening and then draw your own conclusions.  They are out on the recruiting trail which is as clear of an indication as anything you'd want to see that, at the very least, nobody has given them any indication they are about to be fired.

FWIW the first time in my life I got fired I was setting up a trip to visit some of our offices in northern NY when my boss asked me to cancel it.  When I asked why he said we needed to talk and for me to meet him at his office on Friday.  Since then I've had to do the same thing to others unfortunately and I can tell you the LAST thing you want a short-timer to do is be on the road.  So unless Hacket has never fired anybody before (and I know for an absolute fact that isnt the case) he is either still deliberating the decision OR Hoke is coming back.  And like I said on Saturday - don't think for a second that there arent a lot of people behind the scene lobbying hard for him to be given one more year.

 

jmblue

December 1st, 2014 at 12:32 PM ^

I doubt it.  There is no way season-ticket renewals will go well with Hoke returning.  I don't see any way they can bring him back without risking a huge downturn in revenue.

We'll have a new staff.  Insiders have maintained that there is a recognition that we "can't screw it up this time."  They seem to think highly of Hackett's acumen.  We'll see.  

 

robpollard

December 1st, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^

I realize it's depressing that UM administration is (again) d*cking around, but there is no way Hoke is back. None.

To put it in business terms (which is the UM way): Hackett is a business man, a CEO. You don't bring back the person (Hoke) in charge of your most important product line if he has failed at his job, in multiple ways. It would have a serious negative impact on your entire organization, b/c revenue* would plummet. It's beyond wins and losses; there are tens of millions of dollars at stake.



Plus, Hackett has no ties to Hoke. He didn't hire him, so he won't feel bad about firing him, if the situation warrants -- which it 100% does.

*Seriously: how bad do you think season ticket and suite renewals would go if Hoke was brought back? I'd rather be on Hoke's recruiting staff right now than be a sales agent calling up season ticket holders for a Hoke-led 2015 season.

ijohnb

December 1st, 2014 at 12:49 PM ^

are discounting one scenario.  Way for it...... NOBODY wants the job.  If that happens to be the case, I could see them retaining him for another year.  And I have said since basically the Rutgers game when it became clear that there was no salvaging this season, the only thing worse than bringing Hoke back is hiring the next Brady Hoke.  Michigan has to nail the next hire, whenever that hire is.  They can't hire Jon Doe just because we sucked this year and then still suck 4 years from now.

In reply to by ijohnb

WFNY_DP

December 1st, 2014 at 2:16 PM ^

I think your premise is supremely flawed. You believe a successful mid-major coach wouldn't take the opportunity to move up to Michigan?

"the only thing worse than bringing Hoke back is hiring the next Brady Hoke. ... They can't hire Jon Doe just because we sucked this year and then still suck 4 years from now."

I don't think it's this simple. You can fire Brady Hoke, go after Harbaugh, or Mullen, or [insert any bigger name coach here]. You might not land them, but that said you also might. If Hoke is the "floor" here, what harm does it do to go after the really big fish knowing that, at the end of it, you might have to hire a guy who's no worse than what you already have and doesn't have the baggage? Hoke was a mediocre mid-major coach. There are countless better mid-major coaches that could be had if the big fish don't jump into the boat.

LBSS

December 1st, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^

I think you missed the point. The "NOBODY" there is "nobody better than Brady Hoke." It's not that any old MAC coach wouldn't jump at the chance to coach here, although at this point the smarter ones might not, but that if we're talking about impact on next year's season ticket sales MAC coaches don't count as "not nobody." They are nobody.

lilpenny1316

December 1st, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^

I think Hackett is at the stage of communicating with agents of prospective coaches.  Once he gets serious interest, that's when he'll cut Hoke loose.  It's what DB should've done before firing RR.  If Harbaugh was going to come, then fire RR.  If not, keep him and see if shelling out the $$$ for Casteel would be the answer.  Most other realistic options did not seem like a upward move.

Hackett wants to make sure he can get someone that would be a significant upgrade over what we currently have.  And if he can't, he wants to make sure he has the time to craft a good enough message to calm the masses.

I Like Burgers

December 1st, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^

When that fake report came out on Twitter yesterday, my immediate reaction was FUCK THIS, and just giving up on the team and next season.  I mean good lord, how could anyone -- fan or player -- possibly rally behind this guy one more time?  I would be more excited about an upcoming trip to the dentist than the 2015 football season if Hoke was back.

TIMMMAAY

December 1st, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^

I do understand where you're coming from, I just think you need to step back and really look at the big picture here. There is just no way that Hackett could justify keeping Hoke, especially considering some of the comments he's made to date. Hoke is toast, I'm guessing by Wednesday. If they were to keep him, recruiting would crater, fans would revolt, not to mention the implications for the team. He gone, just give it some time. Hackett comitted to making a "thorough review" after the end of the season, it'll happen. 

I'm more worried about what happens after he's fired. 

ijohnb

December 1st, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^

don't even have to call him off the recruiting trail.  They can just have Jason Bateman set up a video conference with Anna Kendrick, George Clooney, or some other termnation specialist.  They will have a "packet" for him and everything.  Bam.  Done.

Cali Wolverine

December 1st, 2014 at 1:00 PM ^

just angry with the truth. The University's handling of the Football Program from Carr's retirement to the present has been so bush league that nothing would surprise me. While I think Harbaugh is a must get from the Michigan camp (and I would be doing back flips if hired)...if I am being 100% honest with myself...I don't think there is any chance Harbaugh is coming to Michigan. There has been no indication from Harbaugh that he is remotely interested in coming to Michigan, and why would he with the shit show that has gone on here on the field, the AD's office and yes even the fans. With all the real crap going on in the world and our country, Michigan students are on TV protesting an AD because we suck at football...this is just sad and desperate. That said Harbaugh, Miles...please come to Michigan and end this misery!

MI Expat NY

December 1st, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^

Coaching isn't the business world.  You coach until you're relieved of your duties.  These guys understand that the staff is about to be fired, but they also know that their duty is to recruit players to Michigan until that is the case.  And even after that is the case, they understand the nature of the business and will not be unproffesional on recruiting trips.  It is nothing like sending business short-timers on the road.  

 

bronxblue

December 1st, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^

I actually fear that he'll be gone, but the AD will take months to do so and Michigan will be left scrambling for Not Harbaugh and then trying to recruit with a retread who was available.  Hackett seems like a lot of things, but "innovative and quick" are not among them.

WallyWallace

December 1st, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^

...my concern is a ‘Harbaugh or Miles or bust’ approach that retains Hoke if those two guys decline. (I’m assuming they will each be pursued). Mullen or Patterson have comfy gigs they built from scratch, which makes them long-shots even if Hackett approaches them.  I’ll happily default to coordinators such as Herman or Narduzzi in this case. 

Magnum P.I.

December 1st, 2014 at 2:49 PM ^

Let's try to decipher what Brian is really saying here:

I can't see a reason to drag it out, but Here we are, dragging it Out. The guy in charge may be competent but he has no tracK rEcord. We're stuck here hopIng thiS guy iS acTuAllY qualIfied aNd that thinGs turn out for the Best. Maybe It will. Forgive me if I have a TendenCy to look on everytHing this dEpartment doeS as a mistake.

Indiana Blue

December 1st, 2014 at 4:07 PM ^

Michigan has just finished in the lower quartile for the 2nd straight season.  Lost to both B!G newcomers - which both were, well - NOT GOOD.   This was year 3 and year 4 under Hoke.  Even in 2011 - Michigan didn't play for a B1G title ... and isn't THAT the GOAL of this team every year.

Michigan football right now is mired in the bottom half of the B!G ... like it or not, IT IS TIME FOR CHANGE.

Go Blue!

Princetonwolverine

December 1st, 2014 at 4:25 PM ^

IF Hoke is keeping his job then it is a clear cut case of Athletic Director malpractice to not announce that.

The coaches are wasting everyone's time out recruiting with them and the recruits not knowing if they will be here next year.

robpollard

December 1st, 2014 at 12:07 PM ^

That unbelieavable quote is for all the geniuses who were posting yesterday that it wasn't necessary that Hoke be fired quickly.

What a waste of time, for all involved.



Fire Hoke, today. It's (past) time to move on.

LDNfan

December 1st, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^

I'll admit that I didn't see the need to rush if the plan is to bring in Harbaugh...but this def. changes my mind. Recruits, current players and staff need to know what's up ASAP. 

I just imagine being a player on the team and knowing that a major change is coming to the guys who are your coaches...how do you deal with that? 

RobSk

December 1st, 2014 at 3:52 PM ^

that are mutually exclusive-

1. Establish clarity as soon as possible as to the future with an excellent new coach.

2. The most excellent new coach is not available for a month, and having a program with no coach for a month is probably worse than having a lame/dead duck coach hanging around.

Not sure how to resolve those clashing priorities. I believe that personally, I'd fire the staff ASAP and live with the consequences. But make no mistake, the ensuing month would be very, very painful for a lot of people.

    Rob

Bagheera

December 1st, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^

If one had been deliberately trying to sabotage Michigan Football over the past 7 years, would things look any different?

gwkrlghl

December 1st, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^

  • We screwed up hiring Les Miles
  • We then hired a spread-minded coach and didn't give him the money for his DC which may have permanently damaged much of the Michigan fanbases view on modern offenses
  • We then hired a Michigan Man(TM) to run POWER which he cannot do but still tries to do anyway

So we've become wholly mediocre while also becoming cold to the spread. I'm not sure a saboteur could've done better

jmblue

December 1st, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^

To be fair, the second point was on RR as much as Martin.  He insisted that we pay top dollar for a new weight room and to bring Barwis along, and Martin did.  He didn't make getting Casteel as high of a priority.  

Unfortunately for us, Michigan was the stop in RR's career path where he learned how important it was to have a DC he could work with.  In Ann Arbor he had Barwis but no Casteel.  In Tucson he has Casteel but no Barwis.  I like their deal better.

 

 

MI Expat NY

December 1st, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^

I think the problem was that Rich Rodriguez was forced to make that choice.  In 2007 Michigan was in desperate need of modernization on the S&C front.  Rodriguez needed Barwis or a Barwis type along with a new weight room.  The weight room was where the money had to be spent, not Barwis himself.  The problem is that Michigan, with all the money coming in, should have also been willing to spend the money on any assistant coach of Rodriguez's choosing.  

jmblue

December 1st, 2014 at 3:01 PM ^

But I don't think it was really an either/or kind of thing.  From what I understand, the issue with Casteel was more about the length of the contract than the dollar amount - we were still giving out year-to-year deals to assistants at that time.  It doesn't sound like it was that big of an issue to resolve.  That we didn't resolve it suggests that it wasn't that high of a priority.  

As for the urgent necessity of weight room upgrades in 2007 (to the tune of several hundred thousand dollars) . . . I don't know.  We seemed to churn out a lot of NFL guys with our crappy old equipment before 2008.