With just four games remaining for most Big Ten teams, it’s pretty safe to say at this point: the Big Ten just isn’t that good this season. Of the seven teams with positive efficiency margins in conference play, only three – Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland – are locks to make it into the NCAA Tournament; the other four (Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan) will probably total three or four bids, but none are safe with three weeks remaining in the season.

While the top three aren’t likely to receive impressive seeds in the NCAA Tournament (mostly due to a lack of significant non-conference wins and the general mediocrity of their conference opponents), there could be some surprises in March. As of right now, the Bracket Matrix has Purdue as a 4, Wisconsin as a 5, and Maryland as a 6.

• PURDUE: Feature National Player of the Year candidate and likely 1st-team All-American PF/C Caleb Swanigan (as well as 7’2 gargantuan Isaac Haas), one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, in the top 20 nationally on offense and defense.
• WISCONSIN: Veteran team with five multi-year starters, have one of the most unique big men in college hoops in Ethan Happ (a defensive menace) as well as two key seniors in guard Bronson Koenig and wing Nigel Hayes, have a top 10 defense nationally.
• MARYLAND: Rank much lower than the other two in computer metrics, but have won a lot of close games throughout the season, start three impressive freshmen in Anthony Cowan, Kevin Huerter, and Justin Jackson, offense and defense are outside top 40 nationally.

Maryland is a year ahead of schedule and quite unlikely to make it to the Sweet 16, in my opinion, although Melo Trimble’s record in tight games over his three seasons in College Park have indicated that the Terps possess perhaps more late-game chops than the conventional statistical wisdom of “results of coin flips are random” would suggest. The Cowan / Huerter / Jackson trio is the best young nucleus in the conference, but tournament success will be difficult for such a young team. I’ve been mostly wrong about UMD since they’ve joined the Big Ten though, so who knows.

Wisconsin and Purdue are better equipped to do some damage as part of March Madness: the Badgers made a surprise run to the Sweet 16 last season and the Boilermakers were felled in a 4/13 first round upset. Recent offensive struggles and a hobbled  Koenig make me a little more leery of Wisconsin’s prospects, but their experience and the presence of Happ make them a relatively safe bet.

Purdue is probably the best team in the Big Ten; a frontcourt of Swanigan and Haas is a formidable matchup for any team, and Matt Painter has surrounded them with a cast of sharpshooters who enable them to operate effectively inside. Teams with strong offense and defense (as opposed to one or the other) as well as one of the best players in the country are always threats to make a deep run and the Boilermakers could be a Final Four team if things break right – though their guard play is still suspect.

[More on the Big Ten – including the bubble – after the JUMP]

The last major conference to add a tournament at the end of the regular season was the Big Ten, so the more coveted conference title is contested over an 18-game schedule against league opponents. Wisconsin was my pick to win and they’re currently tied with Purdue at 11-3 – Maryland is a game back at 10-4 after losing a game in Madison against the Badgers this past weekend.

Based on the Kenpom win probabilities for each team’s remaining schedule, it should be a close race to the finish:

All three teams are favored in each of their remaining games; the toughest matchups for each team are Purdue @ Michigan, Wisconsin @ Michigan State, and Minnesota @ Maryland. A split title in some form seems to be the likeliest scenario, though there’s a chance that either Purdue or Wisconsin could win out from here.

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Minnesota is a near-lock to make the field. [Patrick Barron]

The other four Big Ten teams currently projected to be in the field are Minnesota (7), Northwestern (8), Michigan (10) and Michigan State (10). As of right now, the Gophers and Wildcats(!) are fairly safe; both teams have been pleasant surprises this season and will likely finish in the top half of the conference standings. Theoretically an implosion down the stretch from either could bump them out of the tournament, but each already has 20 wins and Northwestern has locked up at least a .500 record in Big Ten play.

The Wolverines and Spartans are both present in nearly every mock bracket, though a rough close to the season could drop either to the “First Four” in Dayton or even out of March Madness entirely. Michigan State just lost 5th-year senior guard Eron Harris to an injury – their third season-ending loss of a veteran rotation piece this season (though the first in the backcourt). With remaining games against Wisconsin at home and on the road against Maryland, the Spartans have some opportunities for big wins – but their current record (16-11) is unimpressive and a couple more losses could be devastating. They had a typically difficult Izzo strength of schedule, but their best wins are against Wichita State at a neutral site and against Minnesota on the road.

Michigan is in better position: with their recent win over Wisconsin, holding serve in road games that they’re supposed to win – @ Rutgers and @ Nebraska – should be good enough to solidify a spot for the Wolverines, assuming that there aren’t any nasty surprises in the Big Ten Tournament. Improved defense since the beginning of conference play has been the difference (although the recent loss to Minnesota represented a step back in that regard) – Michigan’s offense is the best in the league and they have a lot of potential if they play even adequate defense.

Seven tournament bids will probably be the max for the Big Ten with Indiana’s slide to the NIT.

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There’s been a fair amount of discussion about the mediocrity in the Big Ten this season, so I decided to take a look at how the quality of teams stacks up against the recent past. The data in these charts comes from the Kenpom ratings:

Note: the big outlier in 2015 was the Kaminsky-Dekker Wisconsin team that came within a few possessions of winning the national title.

Typically there are stronger teams at the top than there are in 2017. Only Purdue and Wisconsin are in the top 25 nationally in the Kenpom rankings – and the only teams with an adjusted efficiency margin over 20. The middle of the conference is clustered pretty tightly which has made for parity in the league but the Big Ten is ultimately as weak as it’s been in recent years – 2015 was at least bolstered by a truly elite Wisconsin crowd.

This is how the Big Ten stacks up against the other top conferences in 2017:

1) Big 12, 2) ACC, 3) Big East, 4) Big Ten, 5) SEC, 6) Pac-12

The Big 12 is probably the best conference in college hoops – the floor of the conference is higher than others; Kansas is on track to win its 13th consecutive conference title, which is a remarkably impressive accomplishment. The ACC has six teams with an adjusted efficiency margin of over 20, far more than the Big Ten. Villanova in the Big East and Kentucky and Florida in the SEC are more highly-rated than any team from the Big Ten. Even the Pac-12, which is quite bad at the bottom, has three standout squads in Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA.

While the Big Ten probably isn’t the worst league of those six, it’s undeniably been a down year in the conference – the slides by Indiana and Ohio State loom large as a part of that.