The Future, Basketball Edition Comment Count

Brian

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next up

ESPN just tweeted out something about how true freshman Mason Cole was looking very good and "competing for the starting left tackle spot," so you'll forgive me if I take one more day to think about basketball before pivoting towards what will be a never ending supply of quotes about toughness that no one is going to care about until they actually see something on the field.

But first, a glimpse into what the next basketball seas-

At Michigan, toughness -- and new offense -- drive offseason

-on might hold. Michigan loses defensive keystone Jordan Morgan from what was statistical-

Remember when Michigan had trouble controlling the line of scrimmage?

“That's a toughness thing,” Hoke said.

-ly Beilein's worst at Michigan, and then the NBA draft-

Or what about not finishing, losing four games by a combined 11 points -- and leading three of them entering the fourth quarter?

“Toughness,” Hoke said.

JUST ONE FRIGGIN' DAY OKAY. JUST ONE. Jeez.

Anyway. Beilein loses defensive keystone Jordan Morgan off a unit that slipped to 101st after the Kentucky game; everyone else returns save those who will set sail for the NBA draft. So…

The NBA Draft

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Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, and Mitch McGary will all have options. McGary and Robinson returned as a unit with the idea they would rip things up this year and then depart; McGary's injury and a bit of stagnation in Robinsons game interfered with that plan. Stauskas just plain blew up.

All available tea leaves point to Stauskas's departure. The feeling anyone in the building got when Michigan cut down the nets to celebrate their outright Big Ten title was that he was out. While Stauskas shot down his father's overly honest take as to his future, one of those things is PR and it's not hard to figure out which one.

Stauskas is solidly in the first round anywhere that bothers to rank prospects—17th at Draft Express, 15th to Gary Parrish, 21st to Chad Ford—and just saw two teammates drop in those rankings from the spot he's at right now to second round grades. It would be a Lewan-level upset if he came back.

The fates of Robinson and McGary are murkier. Robinson has alternately sounded like a guy open to a return

"There have been times this year when I thought about it and heard a lot of talk and everything," Robinson said. "I just want to make the best decision, the best decision for me, because I want to play this game for a long time. So if I'm not ready, I'm not ready."

…and a guy headed out the door

“At the beginning of the season, things weren’t going right,” Robinson explained on Saturday. “I was going to play the three and coach decided he wanted me back at the four when Mitch got hurt.”

The move was tough on the 6-foot-6 sophomore.

“I was kind of upset a little bit about that,” Robinson admitted. “I was kind of questioning my decision to come back.”

…depending on the context and question. Generally in these situations the out-the-door thing is more likely, but Robinson's stock has fallen to the point where he has a tough decision. Most places have him a second rounder—one in the range that Tim Hardaway Jr was last year before draft workouts saw him leap into the first round. DX has him 37th, Parrish 39th, Ford 32nd.

It's clear that Michigan sold Robinson on the idea of playing the three, his NBA spot, when he returned. They would have to do that again, presumably by promising a lot of McGary/Donnal frontcourts with Robinson on the wing.

And then there's McGary, who parlayed a brilliant six-game run in the tourney into a mid-first round grade, annihilated various camps in the summer, and came down with a back injury that lingered until it required surgery. What is an NBA draft executive supposed to do with that information attached to a guy a year older than his class? Guess wildly. McGary is also universally hailed as a early second-rounder; in his case the motivation to return seems obvious. A healthy year of McGary should make him an easy first-rounder once again.

If I had to guess I'd say Michigan gets one of the three back and that's Mitch. But nothing would shock me… other than a Stauskas return.

So Then What

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Bryan Fuller

Assuming the scenario in the last paragraph plays out, these are your 2014-15 Michigan Wolverines:

  • PG: Walton (So., 30 min), Albrecht (Jr., 10 min)
  • SG: Irvin (So., 30 min), Chatman (Fr., 10 min)
  • SF: LeVert (Jr., 35 min), Chatman (Fr., 5 min)
  • PF: Donnal (Fr., 30 min), McGary (Jr., 10 min)
  • C: McGary (Jr., 20 min), Horford (Sr., 20 min)

That's an eight man rotation. Michigan also has Ricky Doyle and DJ Wilson coming in. If McGary returns they can definitely redshirt one and maybe both; if he returns they have to play one and maybe both. Michigan will be in the market for any LeVert-like spring risers in this scenario; they could also take a transfer.

That looks… wow. I am shocked at how good that looks given that this hypothetical scenario has bombed three NBA draft picks off the roster. (Trey would hypothetically be a senior if he was not Trey.) Michigan returns LeVert, who is improving nightly and still has buckets of upside since he's a year younger than most guys his grade. They have two top-50 recruits who turned in promising freshman years and promise to blow up themselves. They're guards entering year two under Jordan/Beilein. A veritable leap beckons.

What if Glenn's back?

You're an optimistic scallywag this afternoon. Robinson's return would probably chop five to ten minutes off of four players' time: Horford, Donnal, Chatman, and Irvin.

What if Mitch is gone?

You are a nasty pessimist this afternoon. McGary departing would likely force Ricky Doyle to pick up 15-20 minutes a game with the rest of the vacated post minutes going to Donnal and Horford; there would be more of those worrying small lineups with Irvin at the 4.

What kind of team is that one above?

Uh… well… I mean I know they'll have just spit out a bunch of guys to the NBA but doesn't that look like another protected seed? Obviously there's a large range of possibility there, ranging from another two to a four, but if you look at that lineup the one question mark is Donnal, who is Beilein's first true stretch big in his time at Michigan.

How did this happen?

I don't know man.

The League

I hesitate to make any strident proclamations after Nebrasketball happened this year. Persist we must. Next year's Big Ten looks like a race between four teams: Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Surprise Team To Be Named Later That I Will Say Is Iowa, After Which Everyone Will Shake Their Heads Softly And Wonder What Is My Deal With Iowa.

Who's worse?

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Michigan State isn't going to drop out of the tournament but in the likely event of a Gary Harris departure they lose him, Payne, and Appling and haven't brought in the level of talent those gentlemen represent in a few years now. Travis Trice, starting point guard, says it all.

Michigan probably isn't going to have the best offense in the Kenpom era and win the league by three games again. Probably.

At the bottom of the league, Purdue and Penn State figure to be less annoying thorns in the side of teams up the ladder after the departures of all Johnsons from the Boilers and Tim Frazier from Penn State. Penn State is going to lean heavily on DJ Newbill, as they did a year ago. Purdue is going to turn to… Bryson Scott? This figures to be Matt Painter's last year in West Lafayette.

Also, Northwestern turns over more of the offense to Sanjay Lumpkin.

Who's about the same?

You'd think Ohio State would take a hit with the losses of Craft and Ross, but they were already 10-8 in the league last year. They've added Temple fifth-year transfer Anthony Lee to their frontcourt, get SG Kam Williams off a redshirt—although that redshirt does invite one to wonder about how good this dude actually is given the state of the OSU offense—and bring in an excellent recruiting class featuring next year's Guy You Wish Beilein Had, Keita Bates-Diop. They'll probably be the same middling Big Ten team that doesn't have to worry about the bubble next year.

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Davis (#15) might be Indiana's starting 5 next year, and he is basically Will Sheehey

Indiana brings in some talented recruits with poor decision making skills. They lose Noah Vonleh and Jeremy Hollowell in the middle. The only guy taller than 6'7" on the roster for next year is Hanner Mosquera-Perea, who Indiana just about refused to play even before his DUI incident. Can a Big Ten team featuring Devin Davis at the 5 make the NCAA tournament? Looks like bubble at best.

Minnesota loses Austin Hollins and no on else of significance; will remain Minnesota until such time as they are not a .500-ish Big Ten team that barely misses or makes the tournament.

Who's better?

As appalling as this is to consider, unless Sam Dekker takes his talents to the NBA there's no reason Wisconsin should take a step back. If anything they should charge forward with a senior Kaminsky. Their only loss is Ben Brust, a highly effective outside gunner who Bo Ryan will replace seamlessly because that's how he do. As long as someone shakes Traevon Jackson and tells him he's not Trey Burke every 30 seconds, they have to be the league favorite.

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On the opposite side of the spectrum that runs from Bo Ryan through Stalin to Rainbow Dash and ends at Tim Miles, Nebraska exists. Their only departure from a breakthrough tournament team is Ray Gallegos, who was marginalized as a senior because he was a Designated Corner Gunner who hit 33% and Nebraska no longer thought that was their best option. The Pitchford/Shields/Petteway core is all sophomores who will be around another two years, and this is a team that went from 8-8 to 19-11 to end the regular season. Second-half Nebraska is a league contender.

And I will put my hand in the fire again: it's Iowa's year, baby! They lose the talented but inconsistent Roy Devin Marble, generally inexplicable Zach McCabe, and Melsahn Basabe. They return a pile of enormous dudes: White, Olaseni, Woodbury, and Uthoff all go at least 6'9". Aging big men put it together and Iowa's got senior White, senior Olaseni, and junior Woodbury on deck. If they can find some shooters they'll be much better than they were a year ago.

Illinois found something at the end of the year and loses only Joseph Betrand; since one of the things they found late was "maybe we should play our freshmen" the future bodes well. Or at least better than 7-11 in the league. Meanwhile, incoming recruit Leron Black is described as a "junkyard dog"—exactly what the Illini need at the 4 next to the uninspiring rebounding of Nnanna Egwu.

How About A Stupid Prediction?

Going to have to wait until draft declarations are made.

Comments

Blue In NC

April 1st, 2014 at 3:55 PM ^

I think Beilen probably gets a pass for that when you consider that McGary was basically injured the entire year.  If not, GRIII likely would have played the 3 much more.  Once you lose your all-america PF/C for the year, I think you are forced to make roster adjustments.  Even if he was initially upset, GRIII is enough of a team player to realize that.  I think the pitch would be "barring major injuries, you will play the bulk of your minutes at the 3 position with some occassional minutes at the 4."

ijohnb

April 1st, 2014 at 7:17 PM ^

Wants to "play the 3" then he should start making 3 type moves. He is not prohibited from doing anything in the offense. Does he just not want to guard bigs? I don't really know how the distinction is that relevant. Everybody is a 3 in this offense except for the 1 and the 5.

ijohnb

April 1st, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^

very much that Caris would get drafted this year.  I think if he improves on this season and develops a more consistent mid-range game that he could be a pro, but not yet.  His shot still looks kind of like a throw and while he is an effective college shooter, I don't think his range goes much beyound 19-20 feet.  He probably made a good first impression on scouts this year and raised a couple of eyebrows, but this year did not make him a pro.  He is probably a four year player.

Blue In NC

April 1st, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^

I mostly agree with you but I don't think he's a 4-year player, I think he goes after next year especially if he puts on another 10-15 pounds in the summer.  He has enough athleticism to play the 2 or 3 in the pros.  Decent defender, good ball handler and passer, good shooter.  What's not to like.  He just needs to show he can add a bit of muscle and be "the man" on the team.

AA2Denver

April 1st, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^

I'm wondering what he has said, if anything. There have been worse players declare than Levert. Most often it turns into a mistake given they get stuck in the D league. 

ijohnb

April 1st, 2014 at 2:40 PM ^

are doing lottery projections for next years NBA draft?  Can you get me a link?  I don't think Levert will be a lottery pick, not after next year, not after his senior year.  I think he is a good player who will play at the next level.

ijohnb

April 1st, 2014 at 3:10 PM ^

me.  I think he is good.  I don't think he has the elite athleticism to play above the rim in the NBA, I don't think he has the size to be a wing, and I don't think he shoots it well enough to be a pure two.  For them to have him higher than GR3 after next year is absurd to me.

alum96

April 1st, 2014 at 4:31 PM ^

How many times did you see Caris break a player down off the dribble and get to the rim versus GR3?  Hint.  It is not even close.  One guy can make plays for himself, the other guy rarely did.  Just about everyone in the NBA can be on the receiving end of an alley oops.  Only so many can create their own shot. 

ijohnb

April 1st, 2014 at 7:23 PM ^

Guy makes plays, I am not taking that away from him. He is a very good player but I think GR3 is the better prospect. If I could have 1 as a pro scout it would be GR3. When he is right he is pure, and I think he will be a handful on the wing in the NBA when he develops fully.

alum96

April 1st, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^

Yeh dude don't use that site.  There are a few sites that just have a good domain name with stupid projections.

DraftExpress has Caris as #20 in the draft next year.  That seems reasonable.  He has things to work on - again people here only see his warts.  He is young for his class - think of him as an old freshman and your view of his exploits would change.

Last year he averaged 10 minutes a game and 2 ppg.  This year he exploded.  If he has even 1/5th the growth next year he had this year he will be a 1st rounder next year - he has a lot of intangibles you cannot teach, with good athleticism, and a good basketball IQ.  To go for a rebound late vs OSU to strip a Tenn player at the end of the game, to stuff Randle, to make that incredible rebound against UK.  You don't teach that stuff - players have that or they don't.  I am not comparing him to Wade but a younger Wade made those plays constantly.  Oladipo made those sort of plays all last year and he was a lottery pick.  Might be a great comparison in fact in players who exploded from 1 year to the next.

MGoLogan

April 1st, 2014 at 4:54 PM ^

It was just the first website that popped up when I googled "2015 Mock Draft".  The poster above said Caris was not a lottery pick as though it was a known fact.  The design of the site does make it seem a bit amateur but when it comes down to it, none of the mock drafts are completely correct and for the most part are just opinions.  Though, Chad Ford does appear to have more access than the rest.

ijohnb

April 2nd, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^

about 20 feet in college.  That looks to be around the limit of his range.  He still shoots a push shot with an abbreviated follow through.  Notice how everything he misses is back rim. Now that can be worked on but I am just saying it is really not a pure shooting motion.

freejs

April 2nd, 2014 at 4:21 PM ^

the tournament, taken as a whole, should have cleared up any questions about that. 

He took a huge leap this year - now it's time for another leap this offseason. 

There was a reason that even while Caris was potentially doing more for the team during stretches of the year, Nik was always our best player. It was always clear that Nik was a little more ready for the big stage, because he's that much further along. 

MGlobules

April 1st, 2014 at 1:44 PM ^

to challenge Wisconsin for the title; with the caveat that Beilein is a magician, I think we're something of an unknown otherwise. 

If Harris and Dawkins return, MSU is once again a very strong squad. I'd have them there with or right behind us. 

P.S. Someone needs to start a comprehensive Big Ten sports site. 

Mr. Yost

April 1st, 2014 at 1:45 PM ^

I think Irvin would be the SF and LeVert the SG...since that's what he played this year (along with SF) and Irvin played PF/SF.

Don't know why he'd jump down 2 spots and bump LeVert up one.

Albrecht gets 5 more minutes and no way Donnal goes from 0 to 30.

PG: Walton-25 / Albrecht-15
SG: LeVert-35 / Walton-5
SF: Irvin-30 / Chatman-10
PF: McGary-15 / Donnal-15 / Irvin-5 / Chatman-5
C: Horford-20 / McGary-20

Space Coyote

April 1st, 2014 at 1:52 PM ^

Though I bet Chatman would stick at just the 3 to give him one position. So his 5 minutes at the 4 would go to Irvin probably, and Chatman gets 15 at the 3. I also doubt McGary would play 35 minutes a game, that's too much for a big. Probably give Donnal 20 and reduce McGary to 30 max.

SanDiegoWolverine

April 1st, 2014 at 3:20 PM ^

We was labeled a "Point Foward" because he had point guard skills but again, not a position. You said that Chapman would play "Point Forward" as if you were saying something different. He has point guard skills and with his height could potentially play positions 1-4 over the next couple of years. That's a more informative way of putting things.

umumum

April 1st, 2014 at 5:02 PM ^

have you watched tape of Doyle?  He's where Horford was when he came in--awkward.  He plays in a very weak league and has limited AAU experience.  Without Mitch, we have issues at the 5--though we should be solid everywhere else.  While it would be great to have a 6'8"  4, I believe Beilein is comfortable going shorter there--if it means more skill--and I suspect that will be Chatman.

TheNema

April 1st, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^

I seriously doubt Wilson redshirts even if Mitch and Glenn came back. He's skilled, blew up a little as a senior, and you'd always like to get to a 10-man rotation it's feasible.

RobM_24

April 1st, 2014 at 1:47 PM ^

"The only guy taller than 6'7" on the roster for next year is Hanner Mosquera-Perea, who Indiana just about refused to play even before his DUI incident. Can a Big Ten team featuring Devin Davis at the 5 make the NCAA tournament? Looks like bubble at best."

Doesn't IU have 7-footer Peter Jurkin? (awesome name as well)

814 East U

April 1st, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^

With so many guys in the rotation (If Mitch and GR3 come back) there are 2 things that really excite me:

1) Guys will have more energy to play defense

2) Defense may be the deciding factor on playing time with so much competion which becomes a bigger emphasis if you want to get minutes

I would rather be Kenpom top 20 offensely and 50-60 defensively than top 3 O and below 100 D

Jack

April 1st, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^

"As long as someone shakes Traevon Jackson and tells him he's not Trey Burke every 30 seconds, they have to be the league favorite."

Actual text message I sent a buddy of mine at 10:49 PM on March 29, 2014:

"Wisconsin would be 10-15% better than they are if Traevon Jackson knew that he's not that good."

DowntownLJB

April 1st, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^

I mostly agree with this thought.  If McGary goes, no way does GRIII come back, if McGary stays, GRIII at least thinks about it hard before he leaves.  To me, part of that is they'd want one more chance to really play the game together - since they didn't get to do that so much this year.

WolverineInCbus

April 1st, 2014 at 2:18 PM ^

What are people's expectations for Donnal? I know he was a lower 4 star out of school but not sure what we should expect. Possible all-conference? average role player? Solid starter? 

MGoLogan

April 1st, 2014 at 2:36 PM ^

I think Donnal has a chance to be a pretty damn good player.  Not saying next year, but I could see him as an All-Big Ten type player.  His jumper is silky smooth and he is a very underrated athlete.  He has a solid handle for a big and is also an above average post defender.  I will be anxious to see what he looks like after another summer with Sanderson but I think next year he could be a 8-10ppg 5-7rpg type player.

Arlo Pear

April 1st, 2014 at 2:30 PM ^

Maybe I'm just a kool-aid drinker but I think we will find Donnal is a surprise contributor to the team next year. I also think the fact they can take a Europe trip this summer as team will help speed up chemistry and development should there be early departures. Another prediction (I hope doesn't come true) is Zak Irvin follows Tim Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson III in being bashed for not living up to ridiculous expectations.

Hannibal.

April 1st, 2014 at 2:36 PM ^

If McGary comes back, I don't think that we'll be worse.  I expect us to be about the same.  We might not go 15-3 in the Big Ten because it's just really hard to do and we won every close conference game this year, but we'll have another great team.  I'm thinking a preseason Top 10 and a 1 or a 2 seed in the NCAA tourney in 2015.  With McGary the only part of the team that could remotely be considered a weakness is the redshirt freshman Donnal getting lots of minutes.   Without McGary, I'm thinking we're probably 2009 or 2011 qualty i.e. 9-9 or maybe 10-8 in the B1G. 

Michigania

April 1st, 2014 at 2:47 PM ^

Am quite surprised that you discount Izzo's history here...  even if he loses Harris,  I would give them the benefit of doubt that they are in the mix in the top four....  if Dawson also leaves, then I'd agree with you more...