The Future, Basketball Edition Comment Count

Brian

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next up

ESPN just tweeted out something about how true freshman Mason Cole was looking very good and "competing for the starting left tackle spot," so you'll forgive me if I take one more day to think about basketball before pivoting towards what will be a never ending supply of quotes about toughness that no one is going to care about until they actually see something on the field.

But first, a glimpse into what the next basketball seas-

At Michigan, toughness -- and new offense -- drive offseason

-on might hold. Michigan loses defensive keystone Jordan Morgan from what was statistical-

Remember when Michigan had trouble controlling the line of scrimmage?

“That's a toughness thing,” Hoke said.

-ly Beilein's worst at Michigan, and then the NBA draft-

Or what about not finishing, losing four games by a combined 11 points -- and leading three of them entering the fourth quarter?

“Toughness,” Hoke said.

JUST ONE FRIGGIN' DAY OKAY. JUST ONE. Jeez.

Anyway. Beilein loses defensive keystone Jordan Morgan off a unit that slipped to 101st after the Kentucky game; everyone else returns save those who will set sail for the NBA draft. So…

The NBA Draft

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Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, and Mitch McGary will all have options. McGary and Robinson returned as a unit with the idea they would rip things up this year and then depart; McGary's injury and a bit of stagnation in Robinsons game interfered with that plan. Stauskas just plain blew up.

All available tea leaves point to Stauskas's departure. The feeling anyone in the building got when Michigan cut down the nets to celebrate their outright Big Ten title was that he was out. While Stauskas shot down his father's overly honest take as to his future, one of those things is PR and it's not hard to figure out which one.

Stauskas is solidly in the first round anywhere that bothers to rank prospects—17th at Draft Express, 15th to Gary Parrish, 21st to Chad Ford—and just saw two teammates drop in those rankings from the spot he's at right now to second round grades. It would be a Lewan-level upset if he came back.

The fates of Robinson and McGary are murkier. Robinson has alternately sounded like a guy open to a return

"There have been times this year when I thought about it and heard a lot of talk and everything," Robinson said. "I just want to make the best decision, the best decision for me, because I want to play this game for a long time. So if I'm not ready, I'm not ready."

…and a guy headed out the door

“At the beginning of the season, things weren’t going right,” Robinson explained on Saturday. “I was going to play the three and coach decided he wanted me back at the four when Mitch got hurt.”

The move was tough on the 6-foot-6 sophomore.

“I was kind of upset a little bit about that,” Robinson admitted. “I was kind of questioning my decision to come back.”

…depending on the context and question. Generally in these situations the out-the-door thing is more likely, but Robinson's stock has fallen to the point where he has a tough decision. Most places have him a second rounder—one in the range that Tim Hardaway Jr was last year before draft workouts saw him leap into the first round. DX has him 37th, Parrish 39th, Ford 32nd.

It's clear that Michigan sold Robinson on the idea of playing the three, his NBA spot, when he returned. They would have to do that again, presumably by promising a lot of McGary/Donnal frontcourts with Robinson on the wing.

And then there's McGary, who parlayed a brilliant six-game run in the tourney into a mid-first round grade, annihilated various camps in the summer, and came down with a back injury that lingered until it required surgery. What is an NBA draft executive supposed to do with that information attached to a guy a year older than his class? Guess wildly. McGary is also universally hailed as a early second-rounder; in his case the motivation to return seems obvious. A healthy year of McGary should make him an easy first-rounder once again.

If I had to guess I'd say Michigan gets one of the three back and that's Mitch. But nothing would shock me… other than a Stauskas return.

So Then What

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Bryan Fuller

Assuming the scenario in the last paragraph plays out, these are your 2014-15 Michigan Wolverines:

  • PG: Walton (So., 30 min), Albrecht (Jr., 10 min)
  • SG: Irvin (So., 30 min), Chatman (Fr., 10 min)
  • SF: LeVert (Jr., 35 min), Chatman (Fr., 5 min)
  • PF: Donnal (Fr., 30 min), McGary (Jr., 10 min)
  • C: McGary (Jr., 20 min), Horford (Sr., 20 min)

That's an eight man rotation. Michigan also has Ricky Doyle and DJ Wilson coming in. If McGary returns they can definitely redshirt one and maybe both; if he returns they have to play one and maybe both. Michigan will be in the market for any LeVert-like spring risers in this scenario; they could also take a transfer.

That looks… wow. I am shocked at how good that looks given that this hypothetical scenario has bombed three NBA draft picks off the roster. (Trey would hypothetically be a senior if he was not Trey.) Michigan returns LeVert, who is improving nightly and still has buckets of upside since he's a year younger than most guys his grade. They have two top-50 recruits who turned in promising freshman years and promise to blow up themselves. They're guards entering year two under Jordan/Beilein. A veritable leap beckons.

What if Glenn's back?

You're an optimistic scallywag this afternoon. Robinson's return would probably chop five to ten minutes off of four players' time: Horford, Donnal, Chatman, and Irvin.

What if Mitch is gone?

You are a nasty pessimist this afternoon. McGary departing would likely force Ricky Doyle to pick up 15-20 minutes a game with the rest of the vacated post minutes going to Donnal and Horford; there would be more of those worrying small lineups with Irvin at the 4.

What kind of team is that one above?

Uh… well… I mean I know they'll have just spit out a bunch of guys to the NBA but doesn't that look like another protected seed? Obviously there's a large range of possibility there, ranging from another two to a four, but if you look at that lineup the one question mark is Donnal, who is Beilein's first true stretch big in his time at Michigan.

How did this happen?

I don't know man.

The League

I hesitate to make any strident proclamations after Nebrasketball happened this year. Persist we must. Next year's Big Ten looks like a race between four teams: Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Surprise Team To Be Named Later That I Will Say Is Iowa, After Which Everyone Will Shake Their Heads Softly And Wonder What Is My Deal With Iowa.

Who's worse?

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Michigan State isn't going to drop out of the tournament but in the likely event of a Gary Harris departure they lose him, Payne, and Appling and haven't brought in the level of talent those gentlemen represent in a few years now. Travis Trice, starting point guard, says it all.

Michigan probably isn't going to have the best offense in the Kenpom era and win the league by three games again. Probably.

At the bottom of the league, Purdue and Penn State figure to be less annoying thorns in the side of teams up the ladder after the departures of all Johnsons from the Boilers and Tim Frazier from Penn State. Penn State is going to lean heavily on DJ Newbill, as they did a year ago. Purdue is going to turn to… Bryson Scott? This figures to be Matt Painter's last year in West Lafayette.

Also, Northwestern turns over more of the offense to Sanjay Lumpkin.

Who's about the same?

You'd think Ohio State would take a hit with the losses of Craft and Ross, but they were already 10-8 in the league last year. They've added Temple fifth-year transfer Anthony Lee to their frontcourt, get SG Kam Williams off a redshirt—although that redshirt does invite one to wonder about how good this dude actually is given the state of the OSU offense—and bring in an excellent recruiting class featuring next year's Guy You Wish Beilein Had, Keita Bates-Diop. They'll probably be the same middling Big Ten team that doesn't have to worry about the bubble next year.

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Davis (#15) might be Indiana's starting 5 next year, and he is basically Will Sheehey

Indiana brings in some talented recruits with poor decision making skills. They lose Noah Vonleh and Jeremy Hollowell in the middle. The only guy taller than 6'7" on the roster for next year is Hanner Mosquera-Perea, who Indiana just about refused to play even before his DUI incident. Can a Big Ten team featuring Devin Davis at the 5 make the NCAA tournament? Looks like bubble at best.

Minnesota loses Austin Hollins and no on else of significance; will remain Minnesota until such time as they are not a .500-ish Big Ten team that barely misses or makes the tournament.

Who's better?

As appalling as this is to consider, unless Sam Dekker takes his talents to the NBA there's no reason Wisconsin should take a step back. If anything they should charge forward with a senior Kaminsky. Their only loss is Ben Brust, a highly effective outside gunner who Bo Ryan will replace seamlessly because that's how he do. As long as someone shakes Traevon Jackson and tells him he's not Trey Burke every 30 seconds, they have to be the league favorite.

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On the opposite side of the spectrum that runs from Bo Ryan through Stalin to Rainbow Dash and ends at Tim Miles, Nebraska exists. Their only departure from a breakthrough tournament team is Ray Gallegos, who was marginalized as a senior because he was a Designated Corner Gunner who hit 33% and Nebraska no longer thought that was their best option. The Pitchford/Shields/Petteway core is all sophomores who will be around another two years, and this is a team that went from 8-8 to 19-11 to end the regular season. Second-half Nebraska is a league contender.

And I will put my hand in the fire again: it's Iowa's year, baby! They lose the talented but inconsistent Roy Devin Marble, generally inexplicable Zach McCabe, and Melsahn Basabe. They return a pile of enormous dudes: White, Olaseni, Woodbury, and Uthoff all go at least 6'9". Aging big men put it together and Iowa's got senior White, senior Olaseni, and junior Woodbury on deck. If they can find some shooters they'll be much better than they were a year ago.

Illinois found something at the end of the year and loses only Joseph Betrand; since one of the things they found late was "maybe we should play our freshmen" the future bodes well. Or at least better than 7-11 in the league. Meanwhile, incoming recruit Leron Black is described as a "junkyard dog"—exactly what the Illini need at the 4 next to the uninspiring rebounding of Nnanna Egwu.

How About A Stupid Prediction?

Going to have to wait until draft declarations are made.

Comments

alum96

April 1st, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^

Kaminsky could put on 10-15 lbs easy over first 2-3 years of NBA.  He is a lot like Payne right now - similar body, similar games.  Payne is being slobbered over but Kaminsky is not - RACISM! ;)  No on a serious note, I guess it is his defense but cmon now he looks like a poor man's Bill Laimbeer in terms of offensive game and that guy turned out ok.

Needs

April 2nd, 2014 at 11:05 AM ^

I think he's way too slow to stay in front of 4s that have any kind of ability to put the ball on the floor. 

His biggest problem, though, is going to be figuring out how to defend the pick and roll with his limitations. He's not laterally quick and he doesn't provide much rim protection, which is a really bad combo at the NBA level with all the pick and roll that centers get put into. That combo means that Kaminsky's not going to be effective at either the hard hedge or the sag and contain strategies that are the two main ways that NBA teams use their centers to contain the pick and roll.

Indeed, we killed Wisconsin in the first game by putting him in pick and roll situations and hitting the mid-range J or getting to the hole when he hung back. A lot of Wisky fans blamed Ryan's defensive philosophy, but I think it's more likely that game just reflected Kaminsky's inherent defensive weaknesses.

The good thing for him is that Ryan teaches defense in much the way that NBA teams do, so he'll have a step up on picking up defensive philosophies.  

 

Needs

April 1st, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^

For what it's worth, si's draft analyst is saying that Frank Kaminsky has NBA scouts very intrigued with his combo of height and skill set. He says that Kaminsky was considered mid-2nd round coming into the tournament but that if he can duplicate his game against Arizona in the Kentucky game, he'll jump to a much higher grade.

Dekker, by contrast, is seen as having hurt his NBA stock, at least for next year. Sounds like scouts want to see him fix his jumper.

 

Stauskas tabbed in same article as a potential late lottery pick.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20140331/nba-prospect-watch-n…

alum96

April 1st, 2014 at 4:18 PM ^

If Kaminsky can score 20 against UK I'll be in awe - they have a bunch of trees and might be the only team in the nation who can double/triple him with like sized players.   I hope he goes off for 30 myself since that seems to be Wisconsin's only chance. 

Needs

April 2nd, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^

Wisconsin's really going to struggle offensively against UK. About the only thing they do that can threaten UK is the ability of Kaminsky to play on the perimeter, forcing their bigs into positions they're not used to guarding. Kentucky's backcourt size means that Ryan's philosophy of inverting the court and posting his guards is unlikely to work, unless it results in open looks for Kaminsky from 3.

Ali G Bomaye

April 1st, 2014 at 1:12 PM ^

One mitigating factor for GRIII: his dad made about $80 million over the course of his NBA career.  Usually kids want to get into the first round as soon as they have the opportunity to do so because it's foolish to pass up a couple million guaranteed, but GRIII won't have to sell insurance if he doesn't get a guaranteed contract.  Putting on my rose-colored glasses, that fact might make him more likely to stay, even though doing so might be a riskier financial decision.

Nitro

April 1st, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^

I agree. For GRIII, it's not about having an NBA salary next year -- it's about making the best decision for his career.  THJ always said he was planning on staying four years, but the difference between definitely getting drafted last year to possibility going undrafted this year ended up forcing his decision to leave early.  A top-20 or so pick forces a team to make a multiyear committment, and GRIII is far more likely land in that range in 2015.

funkywolve

April 1st, 2014 at 1:42 PM ^

Agree.  As long as his dad was smart with the money, poor family finances probably won't be a reason for GRIII to make the jump.  However, GRIII is a guy who I could see blowing up due to the individual workouts.  He's a really good athlete and if his jumper is on during the pre-draft workouts, his stock could rise.

jmblue

April 1st, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^

If we could get McGary back, that would be huge.  Beilein's offense is such that I'm confident that almost any perimeter player will look pretty good, given all the great looks at the basket and regular mismatches they draw.  But the post positions are a wild card.  Add a proven commodity like Mitch in the middle, and we could well be a national title contender even with Stauskas and Robinson gone.

JimBobTressel

April 1st, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^

Time to see what the freshmen Chatman and especially Donnal are capable of. I'm intrigued to see if they will continue their 4 out, 1 in game with Donnal and McGary (please come back) on the floor. What kind of player will Donnal be? I want to get a glimpse of that potential.

I don't expect Chatman to contribute much beyond a few triples. 

This is going to be Levert and McGary's squad, most likely. One star guard, one big man as the alpha dogs of the team. We don't need much more than that to win 25+ games (fingers crossed). levert should go from baby durant to Toddler Durant as the primary scoring guard.

Walton and Irvin as year 2 guards is a juicy concept...considering that they were the most highly rated recruits at their positions that Beilein has pulled in his tenure here. Sign me up.

and if GR3 stays, might as well book your 2015 final four tickets

westwardwolverine

April 1st, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^

I feel like Stauskas could stay and lose very little. Is he going to top this season? Probably not. But if he does, he could move himself into the top 10 in a far weaker draft next year. If he returned and had a similar season, more than likely he ends up higher than he would have this year or, at worst, right around the same spot. 

Obviously, getting injured would be a concern, but for Stauskas, the difference in draft strength between the next two drafts is at least something to think about over the next few weeks. 

gwkrlghl

April 1st, 2014 at 1:28 PM ^

because I already can't wait for basketball to return and this season isn't even up yet. I'm looking forward to basketball vastly more than I am looking forward to football

93Grad

April 1st, 2014 at 1:29 PM ^

news than I am right now.  Lets face it, 8 out of the last 10 years have been pretty depressing and so much of the spring buzz from those seasons never materialized.  The only way the Football team is going to earn true praise is by consistently winning on the field and beating Sparty and/or Ohio.  Until then, it is all just meaningless talk.

TheNema

April 1st, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^

It hurts that our critics/rivals were proven right about how much Michigan Football likes to TALK. A lot of the buzzwords have been exposed as worthless platitudes. Yeah, OSU/MSU fans are very biased in this regard, but I think a ton of Michigan fans see things the same way in terms of all the promises and bluster. The general Hash Tagginess of the program (elevated hugely in the Brandon era) is a really, really big turn-off to me.

Space Coyote

April 1st, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^

1. Wisconsin — I think this is the top team pretty easily. Still surprised Kaminsky is getting no NBA love, as I think he'd make a solid late 1st round pick. 
2. Michigan — Very little chance Stauskus comes back, as his draft stock really has no where to go but down IMO. Depth at the 5 is scary if McGary leaves, so that's a swing decision for Michigan being #2 to being in the 2-4ish range. 
3. Michigan State — A lot hinges on Dawson staying (I'm assuming here he is, and I'm just going to assume Harris is gone). I think he presents some big mismatch problems at the 4 due to his strength and ability to finish around the rim, combined with his defense. Will probably be a bit of a jump-shooting team again next year, but have some pretty good shooters and depth to surround Dawson's inside ability, and some guys to plug in at the 5 that are still young. I think their ceiling is limited, but so is their floor, and I think that floor is higher than people are expecting right now. 
4. Maryland — Don't think they lose anyone big. But, great recruiting class (top 10 nationally). A decent team that should have some of the B1G's better talent, but that first season in conference could be a rough adjustment. 
5. Illinois — I think they were a better team than they showed the majority of the B1G season, but a young team that lost a lot of confidence and hit the skids. I think this is the surprise team next year and is solid, as they don't really lose anyone. 
6. Ohio State — Need to find a good scorer. I like Scott, but this is a team limited on offense. Will still be solid defensively, but will rely on a pretty good recruiting class to take the leap. I think this is the NCAA tourney bubble right here.
7. Nebraska — Youngest team in the B1G, loses no one, plays hard, but I think also had a lot of luck in their favor this year. They were kind of a team blessed, and I think they level out next year. Still a bubble team, IMO.

8. Indiana — Big loss with Vonleh but some decent recruits coming in. Assumes Ferrell stays, and a solid recruiting class coming in. 
9. Iowa — Losing their best player (Marble), best interior defender (Basabe), and convenient goat (McCabe). But played a lot of guys as well. I think Fran is a pretty good coach, so they edge out Minny. 
10. Minnesota — Underwhelming roster but the pressing style makes them competitive. 
11. Northwestern — Drew Crawford's departure will hurt but that's all they lose. 
12. Penn State — Low on talent and feels like backward momentum. 
13. Purdue — Loses a few seniors and the younger Johnson, and the guy that had the heart problem and was forced to retire. Hammons still hasn't proven to be consistent or having much desire. This team will really struggle IMO, though if Hammons decides he actually wants to play, they could jump into the 9-10 range. 
14. Rutgers — I don't really know anything about them but any team that loses by 60+ to anyone should probably be dead last.

I think Wiscy is solid at 1. If Michigan loses all 3 Soph that may make the jump, I think 2-4 are very tight. I think 5-7 are very tight right now and all those teams are fighting on the bubble. After that, I think there are some dangerous teams that could win any night up to Northwestern, where the talent level drops down too much.

bronxblue

April 1st, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^

Largely agree, though I'm not sure if Maryland puts it all together to that degree.  I see them in the tourney, but this conference is pretty tough and an older Illinois and Nebraska could be higher despite having lower overall talent.

alum96

April 1st, 2014 at 4:11 PM ^

Largely agree although I have Maryland higher, I think they have a legit chance to be #2 if UM loses all 3 of our guys.  They are like Tennessee was this year - a team that will have 5 starters of srs and jrs PLUS a top 10 recruiting class.  If just 2 of their freshman are legit they are going to be very talented.   Normal caveat of the Big 10 is a tough conference to begin play in.

Illinois was playing the best out of anyone not named UM and Nebraska to finish out the Big 10 season.  OSU will be a wildcard - they got a very nice transfer and a loaded recruiting class that will be tougher to play in late February than early January. 

The Big 10 will be loaded again next year.

AlwaysBlue

April 1st, 2014 at 1:30 PM ^

game comments was asked about attrition. He said it's the state of the game and what you need to plan for (or something similar). At the time it struck me that he had a plan. Maybe there's a transfer out there or maybe he has an idea on Mitch. If McGary comes back he'd want to play the 4 though. Either way, Mitch is key. If he's the only one to come back I think they'll be fine. Irvin an Walton will dazzle and Caris' potential has been lighting up JB's eyes for 2 years.

Mr. Yost

April 1st, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^

When Horford is also coming back.

IMO, you're much more likely to see a Horford/McGary frontcourt with GRIII at the SF spot if he returned. LeVert and Walton would obviously round out your starters.

Donnal, Chatman, Irvin and Albrecht would be your bench players and complete your rotation.

Space Coyote

April 1st, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^

Is you are stacked 1-3 and very thin at 4-5. It doesn't make sense to get your best players on the court. Irvin, Chatman, and Albrecht will probably be the three best players not starting and they all play 1-3. Meanwhile, at least Irvin is probably more skilled than Horford, and you only have Donnal as a backup for 2 spots that often have more foul trouble and players get tired quicker.

I just don't see Robinson coming back and getting more minutes at the 3 than the 4. I think he could get some run at the 3, but most of his time would still be at the 4 IMO.

Blue In NC

April 1st, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^

Yes but if GRIII comes to you and says he will come back but wants to play the 3 primarily (very realistic given his comments), as a coach you take that deal and plan accordingly.  Michigan is a deeper and more talented team with GRIII than without, however you structure the lineup.