This post makes me happy.
Friday Recruitin' Checks Frequent Flyer Miles
Mike Weber: Class Rankings Impact
After securing a commitment from four-star Cass Tech RB Mike Weber on Wednesday night, Michigan is at or near the top of the board on the recruiting services when it comes to the pure quality of their commits (taking quantity, admittedly also an important factor, out of the equation). The Wolverines are tied with Alabama at #1 in average star rating on Scout (3.90) and they're third on both Rivals (behind Bama and USC) and the 247 Composite (ditto). This is especially impressive given a kicker represents a full 10% of Michigan's class, and while Andrew David is a highly regarded kicker, specialists are lucky to get even two stars on the recruiting sites—that's what David merits on the 247 Composite.
With ten commits in a class that should get up to just 14-16 players, Michigan won't land atop any of the team rankings—for good reason, as quantity does matter—but that doesn't mean they're not doing well there, either. Weber's commitment shot them up six spots to #19 in the composite rankings, the highest placement of any program with ten or fewer commits. Florida is next in the ten-or-fewer club at #29, and then you have to scroll down a good deal to fine Ole Miss and Oklahoma at #42 and #43, respectively. Make no mistake: Brady Hoke is once again putting together a really good class, and it may be his most impressive to date when factoring in the preceding season.
Another One Coming?
— Tom VanHaaren (@TomVH) August 7, 2014
Above is four-star NC SDE Darian Roseboro, whom you can watch obliterating his teammates in practice if you click through to Gerry Hamilton's Twitter—including him lining up at running back(!) in the Oklahoma drill. Roseboro has long been thought to be a Michigan lean, though he's mentioned in the past that location would play a factor in his recruitment, as family is very important to him. When Roseboro talked to Scout's North Carolina outlet on Wednesday, he gave a very positive indication that this won't affect Michigan's standing one iota ($):
According to Roseboro, location won’t factor into his decision.
“My parents, they’re going to come wherever I go,” Roseboro said. “We’ve already talked about that. They said, ‘Don’t go somewhere just because you don’t think we’re not going to make it. We’re going to be at every game.’ They’re in a position where they can do that.”
The UNC guy then asked a bunch of questions about whether Roseboro could be a package deal with fellow North Carolinian D-linemen Shy Tuttle and Jalen Dalton, both of whom are also announcing in the near future—they all hold UNC offers. Roseboro basically dodged those questions. This may be why...
Sam Webb has a "gut feeling" about ANOTHER recruit.
Yes, he's referring to Roseboro—you can hear it for yourself on the WTKA recruiting roundup from yesterday (segment 3, 5:40 mark). Roseboro will announce his decision on August 29th at 2:30 pm. If he commits, expect that Hello post to go up quickly.
KLS: Michigan Is "My Favorite School"
Five-star CA WDE Keisean Lucier-South broke down his top five schools to Rivals' Adam Gorney; I'll let you compare the Michigan and UCLA quotes yourself ($):
"I love the program," Lucier-South said. "It's my favorite school. The tradition there is insane. I've been watching them since I was a little kid. I can feel the vibe over there and that's why I chose them as my first official visit, too. I want to check it out. I really love Michigan right now."
The two Pac-12 schools are definitely major players. Lucier-South absolutely loves the UCLA staff and Oregon has impressed him with the comparison they're making about him.
"I really like (UCLA) because of the coaching staff and the tradition there," Lucier-South said. "It's a winning program there now. I see them building a winning program there. They were my first big offer, too, and I really respect that and that's why I really like UCLA right now.
That looks pretty promising, even if you interpret it as Lucier-South saying Michigan was his favorite school to root for growing up, and not necessarily the favorite in his recruitment. Oregon is a team to watch here—they're looking at him as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and he seems quite open to that possibility.
After visiting Michigan with teammate Mike Weber on Wednesday, four-star 2016 Cass Tech CB Lavert Hill told Steve Wiltfong "it feels so good" to be in Ann Arbor when he visits, and he's "looking forward to going to their games" in the fall ($). It'd be very surprising if the younger brother of current U-M safety Delano Hill doesn't end up at Michigan sooner or later.
Four-star 2016 IL LB TUF BORLAND told Scout's Eric Rutter that he's close to an offer:
“Actually at the end coach Mattison came up to me and said you’re really close to an offer,” said Borland. “That was exciting to hear. They said they’re really excited for having me up and they’re looking forward to the future and seeing us grow and get better and improve.”
TUF's lone offer right now is from Illinois, and he says he's "sure there will be another" visit to Ann Arbor in his future; I like Michigan's chances if/when that offer comes through.
I have never seen a cogent reason why class size should matter in recruiting ratings. The only rational way to compare recruiting classes is to throw out special teams recruits (for the reasons Ace mentioned), and rate all schools based solely on average stars. You might want it based on the median 15 recruits for large classes.
How can anyone think that a class of 25 3 stars is better than a class of 15 4 stars (assuming as we must that stars - for all their faults - are the measuring stick). The fact that a school has a lot of open scholarships does not mean that they recruit well...
I think it matters a little bit. I just don't think it matters nearly as much as the recruiting sites' rankings suggest.
For example, it would be hard for Michigan to keep up this average rating with a 20- or 25-person class. If you have a small class, you can be really selective with who you offer. If you have a big class, you have to be a little looser in which commitments you'll take.
Still, in general, I agree with you. The recruiting sites' algorithms value class size way too highly. It's crazy that the 247 composite rankings have UNC (3 four-stars, 12 three-stars) ahead of Michigan (8 four-stars, 1 three-star, 1 kicker) just because of class size.
247's rating changes become generally negligible after about the 18th recruit due to the bell curve, after which the top 18 make up the majority of the ranking. Probably doesn't apply to a class as small as UM's will be but an 18 person class can be ranked much higher than a 30 person class when it's all said and done, making it a bit more accurate.
For instance a class of ten 4 stars is better than a class of four 4 stars. It gets more complicated when you start comparing classes of 3 stars vs classes of 4 stars as you mentioned.
(And yes that was meant as a joke.)
Love > Really Like
I had noticed that he made the distinction between the two programs.
I'm liking the fully capitalized TUF BORLAND. Subtle and respectful. Putting lower case letters in that guy's name would be blasphemous.
TUF BORLAND is an awesome name for a LB.
This kids made of Man stuff!
Only have 1 scholly offer? I dont understand, even as a 2016
Lots of 2016 kids don't have a lot of major offers yet, and just because a 2016 kid is a 4 star now doesn't mean he'll end up that way. There was a kid a few years ago from OH I believe. top-200 QB, four star. Ended up at Bowling Green or something like that. Sometimes the services don't agree with the coaches handing out offers.
Roseboro is just rocking kids in those vines. He trucked a guy when he played RB. Poor guy. Some help on the d-line would make me very happy.
Would make up for the coaches saying they don't want a DT in this class. Kid seems like Wormley where he'll surely grow into one, but have the versatility to play SDE.
We need to have an as good or better season than UCLA if we want to pull KLS from the west coast. I noticed he said , "it's a winning program there now" referring to UCLA. They should have a good year and will prob be tough to beat for him. However I am optimistic about Mich season and you know when these kids visit campus they love it!
There is no denying the success of this staff in recruiting. This season and next will be fun to watch with all the talent we'll have on the field!
Dantonio gets a lot of credit for his 4th year, but a soft schedule was a big part of a 11-2 record that only had one strong win (they beat Wiscy in EL 34-24) and a pair of embarrassing losses, falling to Iowa 6-37 and 'Bama 7-49. Wisconsin was the ONLY ranked team they beat.
His fifth year was much stronger, IMO, even though they lost one more game, they scored more, allowed less, and beat three top-25 teams, barely losing to another (Wiscy in the B1G title game).
And it's not just Dantonio: Saban didn't win more than seven games at MSU until his fifth season.
The roster overhaul that Hoke has executed since the '12 class has certainly brought in top tier players, but there was almost nothing left from the previous classes. This is still nearly a brand new team.
I trust in the Pattern™
I was surprised they didn't go after him more. Might not be KLS or Da'Shawn Hand, but he can play, and it never hurts to have a tall guy on the outside. Look what the Giants have done with Jason Pierre-Paul.