Jeff Withey is going to get his points but if Burke and Hardaway are hitting we will win.
I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
3/23/2013 – Michigan 78, VCU 53 – 28-7, Sweet 16
It doesn't take long for people to forget who you are. One loss to a MAC team on the big stage seems to do it, even if that MAC team was an overtime away from the Elite Eight. The next year you might find yourself on a bit of a skid to end the year, facing down another mid-major star and instantly targeted by the talking heads as upset city, baby*. Rule one of sports opinion: the last thing that happened will always keep happening.
If you ever find yourself in this situation, I'll be surprised since that means you've been a head coach for a zillion years. You'll also be feeling like John Beilein has been the past week. Drinking decaf tea. Thinking about covalent bonds. Enjoying your grandchildren. Pissed off.
I mean… John Beilein, projected first-round upset victim. I don't know if you know this, head-talker,—I think you should since you will never stop referring to Michigan's 1-3-1 zone—but John Beilein has been around the block. He's made verbs. Have you made a verb? Does it mean "higher seed has just been blitzed out of tournament by three-raining center"? No. It means "seemingly has not watched college basketball since he played it, and probably not even then." Except your verb doesn't exist. "Pittsnogled" exists.
Even if your theory is that Beilein's March blitzes ended at the Big Ten's edge, you've got more evidence against you than in favor of you. In 2009, a ramshackle Michigan ten-seed took out #7 Clemson. At one point that game was a blowout before Michigan went into clock-kill mode. They held themselves in against Oklahoma despite deploying Zack Novak against Blake Griffin and having to rely on Anthony Wright as their primary scorer with Manny Harris stapled to the bench, in foul trouble. Two years later Michigan ran Tennessee out of the gym in an 8-9 game and was inches away from taking #1 Duke to OT.
Basketball's weird, randomness is random, bad things happen to chemistry teachers, yeah yeah. Going out of your way to project John Beilein doing poorly in the tourney is like pressing Trey Burke: once in a while you get lucky. Over the long run you're going to end up holding your intestines, thinking about a foolish life ill-lived.
Don't even get the tiny slice of John Beilein's brain given over to his id (he keeps it between gluten-free pancake recipes and lamp instructions in a disused, dusty corner) started about what happens after you show Summit Trey Burke his intestines. If the tiny disused id could draw Beilein's attention for a fraction of a second, boy, would he be slightly peevish about VCU this, havoc that. About new hotness Shaka Smart and his defense with a name and everything and a two-year-old play-in-to-Final-Four run.
The definition of whippersnapper (Bryan Fuller)
The gap between expectations of serious men—Vegas installed Michigan a slight favorite—and the chatter of VCU havoc-ing Kansas and whoever might come next was large.
"All we've been hearing was the VCU 'Havoc,' we didn't hear anything about us, and we wanted to prove we're no team to mess with right now," Michigan freshman Nik Stauskas said. "All you heard is 'how are they going to stop Nate Wolters?' Stuff like that."
The thing is: Shaka Smart is a great tourney coach. Entering Saturday's game against Michigan he was 7-1 against the spread during March Madness. He did that whole first-four-to-Final-Four thing. He is appallingly young to have done this. I have to tell you that when VCU's band was putting Akron's to shame on Thursday and their dancers were just kind of, I don't know, moving, you know, in a certain way and VCU came out and blitzed Akron it was intimidating. This was before I knew they had a guy with a Tim the Enchanter hat even.
Smart has created an aura. VCU's presence at an NCAA tourney site brings an electricity with it. This havoc thing will be a verb sooner or later. Shaka Smart is 35.
It's just that John Beilein's been doing this since Shaka Smart was playing with Legos. No, since Smart was gurgling out his first words. Dude was one year old when Beilein started his coaching career at an age even more appallingly young than Smart did. On March 19th, Beilein was 10-2 against the spread in the tourney since '05. He's since added two more ATS wins to his docket, the last one a deconstruction of Havoc™ so comprehensive that Michigan put up 1.2 points per possession despite hitting just 30% of their infinite wide-open threes.
Anyone predicting VCU to do things forgot that this was a John Beilein team piloted by Trey Burke. I am almost certain the handshake in the aftermath did not feature Beilein telling Smart he was strapped with gats when Smart was cuddling a cabbage patch. But not completely. Kansas awaits; John Beilein sips tea with eviscerating intent.
*["Upset city, baby" patently unfair here since Dick Vitale in fact put Michigan in his Final Four. I enjoy being patently unfair to Dick Vitale. If you consider this a character flaw in me, I consider it a character flaw in you. So there.]
McGary, of course. (Fuller photo, Ace photoshop, board suggestion at right.)
It will not be news if I tell you that Mitch McGary had himself a day: 21 points on 10 of 11 shooting, 14 rebounds, and even a made free throw. He earned Obligatory Wes Unseld references from the announce team and The Sporting News.
Oh, and he just might be the best outlet passer we’ve seen since Wes Unseld. Matter of fact, he’s built a lot like Unseld, too, with a hard-edged game like the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Famer.
He dove on the floor with Michigan up 20, because that is what a St. Bernard would do.
To cap it all off, he gave Kammron Taylor a flashback seizure so bad that Chris Rock (That Chris Rock) had a twinge:
He and GRIII were the engines behind a blowout on the boards: 19% OREB for VCU, 41% for Michigan. He played 34 minutes with a single foul. It was a day. If he can go head to head with Jeff Withey… dot dot dot.
While I don't think that's super-likely, guys do have coming-out parties that suddenly announce they have reached the proverbial Next Level. Beasting on an undersized VCU team with their one quality post stuck on the bench for a big chunk of the game* might count. Going head-to-head with Jeff Withey and coming out even is indisputable. I'm saying there's as chance.
*[Reddic had 16 points on 13 shot equivalents in 24 minutes. His backups saw a total of 21 minutes, in which they attempted zero shots.]
Stat of the game. Michigan gave up all of four fast-break points to VCU and scored 15 of their own. That is the recipe for blowing Shaka Smart off the court.
Stat of the game, part II. Michigan had 12 turnovers, VCU 11. This number is of course under the 15 magic number, or 23 magic percent. VCU also managed just two more steals than Michigan.
Slash and burn. I got a lot of grief about this assertion when Michigan ended up in the same pod as the rams:
Whenever someone posts a bracket and says they like or do not like the matchups therein there is always the guy who says they will boil themselves alive if VCU is a potential second-round matchup. I say bring the Rams on:
VCU 100% dependent on (huge) TO margin. A-10 opponents actually shooting better than Rams.
I'll take that strength versus VCU's many other weaknesses in the matchup game.
Now everyone will kill me if we lose to VCU in the second round. I should have said nothing.
I'm not usually a point-to-my-awesome-prediction guy, because predictions are stupid. (Remember "NC State is the #8 seed no #1 wants to see?") In this case, though, WOOOOOOOO.
Michigan's three and a half ballhandlers defeated virtually all attempts to run that 1-2-1 diamond trap. Except for a brief period right after halftime when Burke got run into a few traps—a couple times by his teammates—trying to heat him up was more loss than win for VCU. The 15 fast break points don't seem to include a number of possessions where the broken VCU press led to crushing GRIII/McGary dunks.
Those two were 17 of 19 combined on twos, and GRIII's miss was a chaotic attempt with guys falling all over the place that McGary immediately rebounded and put back. All but three of those attempts were at the rim. The press mostly set up dunks or layups or Kobe assists, not turnovers.
How did this happen? Why didn't the quick turnaround hamper Michigan's preparation? The program is based on ball control.
"Preparation for a game like this does not happen in one day," Beilein said. "If you came to our early drills in October, in the summer, we're catching on two feet, we're pivoting, we're passing the ball to the outside hand. We're valuing each possession. You play a team like VCU, if you don't value each possession and take care of the basketball, they're going to run points on you like crazy. (They're) averaging 75 points a game, 20 of those are off defensive transition off turnovers. We work on it daily.
"The prep was really minor (on Friday), as far as 90 minutes of walking around, doing things."
This was a draw of doom for VCU, playing a team that basically spends every practice defeating your system.
Spike. Hello. Spike Albrecht's 14 minutes came with a made three, a missed two that really should have been a Kobe assist (he drew Reddic and threw one off the backboard to Horford; Horford managed to biff the putback), and a couple of assists. The second blew the roof off the Palace:
nooooooooooooooo! ohhhhhhhhhhhh! lolllllllllllllllllll
(Watch the bench, BTW.) This is the bit where you started cackling madly because this was officially a replay of Tennessee 2011, and bitterly wished Gus Johnson was doing this game—oh my God Gus Johnson doing this game.
Anyway, Spike has a nasty habit of dribbling 25 seconds off the shot clock but eventually teams get irritated that this little white kid is running around the court on them and foul him. I do not think this is a sustainable strategy, but there are worse backup point guards to have.
One thing he's got in common with all Michigan point guards since Darius Morris emerged: kid is unflappable. He showed that today and during a stabilizing cameo after Michigan had gotten run early at Ohio State. Contrast his play with a clearly rattled Caris LeVert, who cost Michigan a few points in four minutes in the first half and then ceded the rest of his time to Albrecht.
A HUMBLEBRAG CHAMPION IS YOU. Hardaway on his reverse two handed slam:
"Coach (John) Beilein always said if you're going to do something flashy, it better work," Hardaway said after the game. "I just tried to do the easiest dunk that I knew how to do.
"It ended up being that."
Supporting cast turnovers. VCU got to Burke a bit, forcing seven turnovers out of him. A couple of those weren't his fault—in particular I remember one ill-fated backcourt trap that Nik Stauskas led Burke right into—but that's a high number. It's offset by the 5 the rest of the team picked up. Hardaway and Stauskas operated as press relief and auxiliary ballhandling, finishing the day with a 4 to 1 A:TO ratio. Add in Spike's one TO in 15 minutes and that's an impressive job of TO avoidance.
It's an expected job of TO avoidance, mostly. The exception: Hardaway taking the ball up the floor for big chunks of the game without incident was a bonus. It helped that VCU couldn't put one of their flypaper PGs on him with Burke out there and Theus in foul trouble.
A series of missed lane floaters. VCU was hurt early by a series of possessions that ended with their guards—I guess they're all basically guards—getting into the lane, whereupon McGary would help but not really challenge. The resulting short floaters went clang clang clang.
Looking at the box score, might this have been the gameplan? Rob Brandenberg, Melvin Johnson, Briante Weber, and Troy Daniels were a combined 9 of 24 from two, and if you look at those dudes' season averages and squint away a fast break adjustment, that's not far off what you'd expect from that collection of mediocre midrange shooters.
In compensation, VCU suffered a 3/16 night from three, with designated sniper Tony Daniels going 1/9, and got to the line just 6 times, all of those attempts from large-ish folk Treveon Graham and Juvonte Reddic. Graham, VCU's highest-usage player, was limited to eight shot equivalents in 35 minutes. As a team, VCU picked up six assists on 23 made baskets. Michigan had 17 on 31.
The problem with Michigan's D is that they kind of have to give something up. If those are lane runners without a Kobe Assist waiting, that doesn't seem too bad.
Behold the power of a withering tourney blowout on Kenpom. VCU rocketed from 22nd to 14th thanks to their Akron annihilation; Michigan providing the Rams the greatest two-game swing in tournament history bounced them up four spots. They are now ahead of Kansas(!) even after the Jayhawks' crunching second half against North Carolina.
All of this is poisoned by Akron playing their game against VCU short four players and the three-standard-dev matchup advantage Michigan had against the Rams, but you guys we're totally beating Kansas! You guys.
I don't think we're going to beat Kansas you guys. They've struggled for 60 of their 80 minutes in the tourney so far, sure. That doesn't change their season-long performance and the looming terror that is Jeff Withey. It seems like their shot is dependent on whether Kansas is a funhouse mirror version of some fourth graders like they were for about 22 minutes against North Carolina or a lethal death machine like they were the final 18 more than anything Michigan does.
I say that in part because turnovers are a persistent Kansas problem. They don't really have a point guard per se; facsimile Elijah Johnson's assist rate is barely above his TO rate. But Michigan does not force turnovers much. Unforced errors from Kansas seem to be make or break for them in this one.
But there's a reason Kenpom has this even. Just as soon as I figure it out I'll let you know about it.
Second small downer thing. Michigan couldn't have put Jordan Morgan out there for like five minutes? I'm worried that his mental state is haywire right now and Kansas looks like a team that will demand more post rotation from M. They play a two-post system with 6'8" senior Kevin Young (season 3PA: 6; season 3PM: 0). Young is a top-100 OREB guy and almost-top-200 DREB guy who shoots 56% from two. Meanwhile, Withey draws 5.2 fouls/40.
With the prospect of McGary foul trouble looming and the possibility Michigan will want to run two posts out there in the event Young is beating up GRIII on the boards, you'd expect Morgan to get 15 minutes or more in this one except for the fact he disappeared almost entirely last weekend.
Rothstein on McGary:
McGary almost shrugged discussing the hit, with a sly smile yet insisting it was unintentional. That is part of what makes McGary a question mark for how good this Michigan team could be in the final two weeks of the season.
“Mitch, his confidence was incredible today, easy drop-offs and offensive boards that he got and he just kept going,” said Michigan redshirt freshman forward Max Bielfeldt. “He can go on a run, and he’s just very talented. When he gets his game going, he’s really, really tough to stop.
“He’s a guy, when he gets going, he’s going to keep going, and his enthusiasm keeps his game at a high level.”
Gary Parrish on… McGary.
"We're an even-keeled group," Stauskas said. "Except for Mitch."
The Daily's Everett Cook on… McGary.
“He came in weighing in the 250s, ballooned up a little bit, you know, enjoying the cafeteria a bit too much,” Alexander said. “Then he got back, recalibrated with his discipline.”
John Niyo on… McGary. (And other stuff.)
McGary had 20 pounds on VCU forward Juvonte Reddic, and probably 40 pounds on just about everybody else the Rams could throw at him. Funny what escaping from the rough-and-tumble Big Ten can do for a guy, isn't it?
"I mean, I guess it was easy to grab rebounds," he said.
Easy for him to say. But hard to do justice to his energy level — "He went down and chased all the loose balls," Smart said — that never waned despite his playing a season-high 34 minutes.
"That's Mitch McGary," Burke said. "That's what he does. He's the guy that gives us the spark and makes our engine run."
Baumgardner on McGary!
"Mitch was at the LeBron James Skills Academy the summer before he (committed to Michigan), and he was out of the game and he was getting cups of water for his teammates," Alexander recalled earlier this week. "That, in essence, gave us an idea of the type of person he is.
"A selfless spirit that allows our culture to grow."
Burke broke Darius Morris's single-season assist record in the game. Talking head recap. Beilein says things. Clownfrauds no more, doubters silenced, welcome to the jungle amirite. Trey would be relieved if he could feel hoo-man squishy emotions, but clearly he cannot so this is probably a misquote.
Five Key Plays. Mitch, destroy.
Jeff Withey is going to get his points but if Burke and Hardaway are hitting we will win.
The good thing about Withey is he's not that great an offensive player and if Kansas posts him up, I'll take that. The issue is when they drive and force help, either on the offensive glass or on dishes.
He is a genuinely terrifying shot blocker though.
If Morgan's ankle is anything less than 100%, I think it's good that we didn't run him out there against VCU. Their style would have been tough on his ankle, and a defensive anchor isn't much use against a bunch of smurfs swarming around.
I think by not putting him in at the end with McLimans, Vogrich, and the rest of the mass substitutions, Beilein sent Morgan the message that he's still one of the top guys. He's not a guy to whom they're going to throw token minutes at the end of the game; he's still one of the top 7 or 8, at least when we have a matchup where we need post defense. And we will need post defense in the next game, because Withey is terrifying.
I was glad to see that Morgan wasn't sent out on the floor with the "mass substitution" at the end. To me, it would be more insulting than not getting played at all.
if beilein had run morgan out there with eso, mclimans, and bartles, that would have been the most unnecessary "FUUUUUUU" I could possibly imagine.
An allusion to 'Forgot About Dre?' Street cred for days Brian.
Y'all think Trey's gonna let his dope freeze? Kansas please. You better get down on both knees.
Nowadays, Brian wanna type like he's got something to say, but nothin comes out when he hits the keys, just a buncha Japanese. And mothafuckas act like they forgot about Trey.
So what do you say to somebody you hate? (What) Or a #1 seed bringin' trouble your way? Wanna solve things when Trey's shootin a J? Then go study a tape of Glen Rice in the day.
A Tim the Enchanter reference...classic Brian
Love the McGary gif. Not only does he get in "football position" but he wisely covers his junk to avoid the shrapnel.
We are 1 good big man away from being dominant...Get McGary another competent big man to pair with him and this team even without Trey and Hardaway next year should be very good..Right now we are way to small to compete with bigger teams...Wee will need Hardaway , Robinson and The Canadian to crash the boards to have a chance this game
I'd think Doyle qualifies no? From what I can tell he seems a bit more polished offensively than McGary was at this time last year, though they were playing different levels of competition.
I wonder if Morgan begins to question things with McGary, Doyle and Horford still around next year.
Morgan will have graduated by then.
And you might be putting too much expectations on a non-five star freshman.
The better question is will McGary and Doyle ever play significantly together before McGary leaves.
but he's got a couple years to grow as a player and as a human, so he may climb the rankings between now and his graduation.
I said non-five star because I don't think he's "doomed" to three star status when all is said and done. I suppose he could jump to five eventually (GR3 did) but even if he doesn't Beilein has found enough I don't really care, I have faith he can play.
But even five star-ish guys like McGary and Robinson have had their struggles, and nothing I've seen makes me think this kid will be NBA lottery ready talent after one year, so saying he'd be squeezing out Morgan OR forming a twin tower tandem with McGary is putting to much pressure on a kid rather than letting him develop at a normal pace into a good player.
Mark Donnal is a 6'9 Top 100 guy coming in with Walton and Irvin next year.
Agreed, and he's an exciting player because he has the skill to play the 4 in this offense too, which McGary, Morgan and Horford really can't do.
I actually thought the same thing about Morgan, especially with the departure of Smotrycz to Maryland. But I think Morgan, who will be a Senior, is not leaving for one year. Even if he had thoughts, thats a lot to give up, re-enroll, new school, new players, etc., Beilein would convince him to stay. I don't see this as an issue. He has guys like Vogrich now, who can attest to the willingness to stay. Much more concerned about THJ and GR3 in particular, leaving for draft. Burke of course is gone...
Trying to decide if I love or hate that one of Mitch's "5 Key Plays" was a made free throw.
The game looks like it will be on the T not the C BS. Still at 7:37.
I enjoy the fact that everyone is underestimating Michigan. It keeps the kids playing with chips on their shoulders, especially since they are so young. Young whippersnappers love to get worked up about those kinds of things and if its working, don't fix it. So everyone start commenting about how much better Kansas is and that Michigan is overrated.
Truly, there is nothing less cool these days than being the favorite. Being the favorite is lame. That's for Grandpa. For "the kids these days" the only way to go into a game is as the disrespected dark horse. It seems to work, so who am I to argue?
I know some will disagree, but I generally agree with McGary and pull for other Big Ten teams in the tournament or bowl games (even Ohio, mostly because of family connections). I was rooting for Illinois and Minnesota, and would love to see an all Big Ten Final Four.
That said, I was looking for vindication that Wisconsin's success in Big Ten play is partly/mostly/entirely due to Big Ten refs. But I didn't see the Wiscy game. Do we has vindication?
Did we turn into Gawker?
BiSB is a lot like Caity Weaver, so... yes?
The dude played so well the first few games, and was never the same after the injury. It wouldn't be as bad if Horford wasn't such a non-factor on the offensive end.
I also just noticed that GR3's jersey is torn on the Spike-o-matic pass - one of the sweetest passes I remember seeing.
Our jerseys tear anytime anyone does anything. If you look closely at the background of that gif you can see two of Eso Akunne's seams split as he jumps up to cheer.
Trash talk from Stauskus rarely ends well for us. Just keep hitting shots and don't get too cocky!
I'm not much of a basketball expert, but it struck me as odd that when VCU pressed Trey would start out with his back to the defender. In the days before the game I read that turning your back against this press was certain death.
Do our resident basketball experts feel that Trey (through Beilein's coaching) was drawing the double coverage purposefully by turning his back to the defenders upon getting the ball on the in-bounds? To my eyes it looked like Trey was essentially daring VCU to assume Michigan could not rotate to the open man, and then exploiting the press due to great passing and court vision.
How wrong am I on this?
Burke was alone in the backcourt and was just holding off the defender. The trap couldn't come from anywhere without being obvious, so "turning his back" wasn't a factor. If you noticed, the trap always came from the opposite side (or the ball-handler blind side), typically around half court (VCU couldn't really diamond trap effectively because of the way Michigan was inbounding the ball), so they went to more of a man trap ("havoc") or a half-court trap. The half court trap was successful early in the second half when Michigan was trying to do the high screen and Burke got turned and put into the corner. Coach B adjusted and went more iso until the three point line and VCU was no longer in position to trap there because of the floor spacing.
So in short, the answer to your question is most likely due to floor spacing not allowing VCU trap players to get to the trap effectively. A team can do this when they have length on the wings and a really good PG.
...will need to play against Kansas so that Mitch doesn't get into foul trouble and foul out...But I really liked Beilein playing Spike, he is cool like the other side of the pillow and plays smart...It was nice to see Horford give Mitch a few breathers as well...Keep it up and Go BLUE!!!!
I worry about Withey's length in the middle. With Burke being as short as he is and a lot of points based on off the ball dribble drive, the help defense from Withey could really affect Michigan's game, especially seeing as Withey's obserd length makes it more difficult to use the rim against him (which Burke like's to do to jumping shot blockers).
Then he dishes it out to the open man. Teams all year have tried to collaspe on Burke in the paint - if it's not there and Withey is in the way the dish it to the open corner. But the guys on the corner have to make the shots.
Michigan has got to transition fast too, if you watched the NC game, Withey lumbers from basket to basket. If you get the ball downcourt fast, he won't be under the basket.
Do you expect Withey's man (McGary? Morgan? Horford?) to start knocking down corner threes? The point is that KU doesn't need to help Withey keep Burke from scoring in the lane - the dude's the best shot-blocker in the country, he can do it all by himself.
Yes to running whenever possible - that's when the lane will be open. Defensive rebounding will be huge.
No McGary is got to pick out and open up a situation where somebody can roll open.
Can' be afraid of Withey. NC in the second half starting playing half-court methodical (trying to protect lead). You have to keep the pace up on Kansas. If you give them time to set the D then you will have to shoot lights-out to win.
I agree. Hopefully Bacari or somebody can teach the wings and bigs the technique of going into his chest - but I think Burke is at too much of a size disadvantage to pull that off.
Yes to having the roll man attack if Withey sags back to defend the P&R - then it will all depend on execution. McGary thunders in, draws a foul from the backpedaling Withey and then finishes the and-one - advantage us. Johnson deflects the pass off Mitch's shins, who then commits a foul trying to get it back - advantage them.
But the staff will come up with some other, better wrinkles, I'm sure.
at attacking the defender's body when driving to score. He goes to their body and use his wingspan to create separation from his body and the ball to make a layup.
I really got a kick out of one of the announcers recounting how Mitch used to deliver his middle school paper route on a unicycle.
I love that McGary ceased being "Mitch McGary" and became "And.. Look who's there" I mean srsly, he was everywhere on Saturday.
Timmy is on the bottom left corner and Trey is at the top...once GRob catches the pass Timmy and Trey both do a little hop at the same time. Check it out! It is freaking priceless!!!
look again ... even the bench is doing the "hop".
that is really priceless - like everyone is so excited they need to jump with GRIII as he's scoring - that replay is really fun to watch over and over
Plus the .gif features the well designed Adidas "Rip-A-Way" Uniformz. *made with 100% more paper!* What a damn travesty.
I could watch that Spike gif all day. Such a great pass.
I was feeling good heading into our matchup with Kansas, but with every preview I read I feel less likely that Michigan will win. *sigh*
I'd like to think we can have McGary and Morgan in together and have them dominate defensively and get some boards [put me with the 'worred about Morgan's psyche' folks]. I also hope Beilein mixes in some 1-3-1 zone. It might just do the trick to throw Kansas off balance for a bit.
Kansas' size is worrisome, but they're also one of the fast-paced teams, which favors Michigan. They average 67.7 possessions per game, more than anyone in the Big Ten, and I think that faster pace will allow us more transition points than we get in Big Ten matchups, and given that we've been "in" every loss (except Michigan State) this year, that bodes well for us.
If I could see a game where even 3 of our 5 starters are really on, damn, we'd be near unstoppable.
Kansas ran a 7 man rotation essentially against UNC...
I don't think we are at a huge size disadvantage. We will certainly have to play disciplined basketball and boxout etc. but it's not like we are terribly small.